Core Insights - The NAND Flash market experienced a significant downturn in Q4 2024, with average selling prices decreasing by 4% and overall revenue dropping to $16.52 billion, a 6.2% decline from Q3 2024 [1][2]. Industry Overview - The decline in NAND Flash prices is attributed to inventory destocking by consumer electronics manufacturers, including PCs and smartphones, leading to a reduction in procurement orders [1]. - Despite suppliers actively reducing production, the traditional seasonal slowdown is expected to result in a further revenue decline of up to 20% in Q1 2025 [1]. - A recovery in the NAND Flash industry is anticipated in the second half of 2025 as production cuts and price stabilization take effect [1]. Company Performance - **Samsung**: Reported Q4 2024 revenue of $5.6 billion, a 9.7% decrease, holding a market share of 33.9%. The company plans to focus on developing Enterprise SSDs and adjusting production plans in response to market changes [2][3]. - **SK Group**: Achieved Q4 2024 revenue of $3.39 billion, down 6.6%, with a market share of 20.5%. The group aims to dynamically adjust production capacity to maximize profits and cater to AI ecosystem demands [2][4]. - **Kioxia**: Recorded Q4 2024 revenue of $2.66 billion, a slight decrease of 0.2%, with a market share of 16.1%. The increase in Enterprise SSD shipments helped mitigate the impact of weak demand in smartphones and PCs [2][5]. - **Micron**: Generated Q4 2024 revenue of $2.28 billion, down 9.3%, with a market share of 13.8%. The company plans to reduce capital investment in NAND Flash and focus on high-capacity products to improve profitability [2][6]. - **Western Digital/SanDisk**: Reported Q4 2024 revenue of $1.88 billion, remaining stable despite price declines. The company anticipates revenue growth starting in Q2 2025 due to increased demand from AI PC trends [2][7].

Group 1: Nvidia Performance - Nvidia reported revenue of $39.331 billion for FY2025Q4, a year-on-year increase of 78%, exceeding analyst expectations of $38.05 billion [2] - Non-GAAP net profit for FY2025Q4 was $22.066 billion, up 72% year-on-year [2] - Gross margin slightly declined to 73% in FY2025Q4 from 74.6% in FY2025Q3 and 76% in FY2024Q4 [2] - Nvidia expects revenue of $43 billion (± 2%) for FY2026Q1, surpassing analyst expectations of $41.78 billion, with an adjusted gross margin forecast of 71% (± 0.5%) [2] - The company delivered $11 billion worth of Blackwell chips in FY2025Q4 [2] Group 2: AI Developments - Anthropic launched the latest model Claude 3.7 Sonnet [3] - Alibaba Cloud's Qwen team introduced a new inference model system called "Deep Thinking (QwQ)" [3] - DeepSeek released open-source DeepEP code [3] - Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) entered the Chinese market, and Xiaomi launched its all-scenario intelligent driving, indicating a focus on AI application deployment [3] Group 3: Investment in AI Infrastructure - Alibaba plans to invest over 380 billion yuan (approximately $53.5 billion) in cloud and AI hardware infrastructure over the next three years, exceeding the total investment of the past decade [4] - This investment marks the largest scale in the history of private enterprises in China for cloud and AI hardware infrastructure [4] - Tencent's AI-native application "Yuanbao" surpassed ByteDance's "Doubao" to become the second on the Apple App Store free list, with downloads exceeding 2 million [4] Group 4: Semiconductor Market Outlook - NAND Flash contract prices are expected to start rising in Q2 2025 due to manufacturers actively reducing production to maintain supply-demand balance [5] - Apacer Technology anticipates a shortage of DDR4 and DDR5 memory in the market by the end of 2025 [5] - If DeepSeek drives demand for AI Edge, DDR5 demand may exceed expectations in 2025, stabilizing or moderately increasing prices [5] Group 5: Robotics and Manufacturing Investments - The Chongqing Economic Information Committee announced the first batch of "challenge" projects in the embodied intelligent robot sector, with companies like Siasun and Changan Automobile included [6] - Chongqing aims for an artificial intelligence industry scale of 20 billion yuan (approximately $2.8 billion) by 2025 [6] - Apple announced plans to invest over $500 billion (approximately 3.6 trillion yuan) in the U.S. over the next four years, including a new advanced manufacturing facility in Houston to produce servers supporting Apple Intelligence [6]

文 ｜ 徐涛 王子源 程子盈 本篇跟踪点评聚焦主流存储，我们观察到原厂控产、产品结构升级之下，近期主流存储现货市场价 格趋稳，部分低端料号微涨。随原厂控产影响显现，行业库存逐步消化，AI拉动需求提升，我们 预计主流NAND Fl a s h 价格有望于2 5Q2开涨，DRAM价格有望于2 5H2企稳向好，存储模组涨价 早于晶圆端，国内模组厂商主要布局NAND产品，2 5Q2有望迎利润拐点，低价存货有望带来利润 弹性，估值有望率先提升，建议关注模组环节投资机会。 ▍ 价格追踪：2 4H2起存储价格下跌，近期部分低端料号现货上涨/波动。 ——DRAM ：周度现货价格中DDR4 1 6Gb / 8Gb部分料号自2 0 2 4年底至今波动上涨约6%，自 2 0 2 5年1月DDR4 8Gb / 4Gb月度价格上涨5%/ 2%，其他DDR4价格底部徘徊，DDR3 /DDR5价格 跌幅持续收窄。本周DDR5日度现货价格微涨。 ——NAND： 现货市场3 2GB eMMC产品价格上涨，上游2 5 6Gb TLC NAND Fl a s h Wa f e r价格 小涨，更大容量的wa f e r及嵌入式、SSD价格仍跌。 ▍ ...

Group 1: Snack Industry - The snack industry is undergoing a transformation driven by channel changes, moving from offline to online, and from traditional retail to membership supermarkets and live-streaming e-commerce [1] - Strong listed snack companies have capitalized on the channel opportunities over the past three years, and this trend is expected to continue into 2025, making snacks one of the most certain growth segments in the food and beverage sector [1] - New channels such as WeChat stores, traditional supermarket adjustments, and instant retail are developing steadily, providing new growth points for listed snack companies [1] Group 2: Storage Industry - The mainstream storage market is stabilizing, with NAND Flash prices expected to rise starting Q2 2025 due to production control by manufacturers and increased demand driven by AI [2] - The DRAM prices are anticipated to stabilize and improve in the second half of 2025, with storage module prices likely to increase ahead of wafer prices, presenting investment opportunities in the module segment [2] Group 3: Analog Chip Industry - The analog chip industry is entering a phase of accelerated consolidation, with domestic leading companies expected to enhance their platforms through both organic growth and acquisitions [4] - The report highlights the importance of observing the integration trends in the domestic analog chip market, drawing parallels with historical overseas mergers and acquisitions [4] Group 4: Asset Allocation - The demand for multi-asset ETFs in China is expected to grow, driven by the need for stable returns and a rich supply of underlying tools [5] - The development of multi-asset ETFs will progress through different stages, starting with simple performance-linked indices and evolving towards more complex models catering to specific needs [5] Group 5: Aviation Industry - The recovery of business travel demand post-Lantern Festival is supporting the recent increase in domestic ticket prices, with passenger flow on key routes recovering significantly [15] - The expectation of increased demand for travel due to economic recovery and the potential for improved utilization of wide-body aircraft on North American routes are positive indicators for airline profitability [15]