农产品日报 | 2025-07-16 需求持续疲软，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约14250元/吨，较前交易日变动-35.00元/吨，幅度-0.25%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格14.60元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+350，较前交易日变动+35；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 15.03元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.07元/公斤，现货基差LH09+780，较前交易日变动-35；四川 地区外三元生猪价格13.85元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.05元/公斤，现货基差LH09+-400，较前交易日变动-15。 据农业农村部监测，据农业农村部监测，7月15日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.96，比昨天下降0.06个点，"菜篮 子"产品批发价格指数为113.05，比昨天下降0.07个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.74元/公斤，比昨天 上升0.7%；牛肉63.88元/公斤，比昨天下降0.1%；羊肉59.78元/公斤，比昨天上升0.7%；鸡蛋6.97元/公斤，与昨天 持平；白条鸡17.08元/公斤，比昨天下降0.8%。 ...

Group 1: Overall Meat Production - In the first half of the year, the total meat production in China reached 48.43 million tons, an increase of 1.31 million tons, or 2.8% year-on-year [1] - Pork production was 30.20 million tons, up by 390,000 tons, or 1.3% year-on-year [1] - Beef production was 3.42 million tons, an increase of 150,000 tons, or 4.5% year-on-year [1] - Mutton production decreased to 2.10 million tons, down by 100,000 tons, or 4.6% year-on-year [1] - Poultry meat production reached 12.70 million tons, an increase of 880,000 tons, or 7.4% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Swine Production - The number of pigs slaughtered in the first half of the year was 366.19 million, an increase of 2.24 million, or 0.6% year-on-year, marking two consecutive quarters of growth [1] - By the end of the second quarter, the total pig stock was 42.447 million, an increase of 9.13 million, or 2.2% year-on-year [1] - The breeding sow stock was 4.043 million, up by 60,000, or 0.1% year-on-year, currently at 103.7% of the normal holding level [1] Group 3: Cattle and Sheep Production - Cattle production remained stable, with 22.03 million beef cattle slaughtered, an increase of 630,000, or 2.9% year-on-year [1] - Milk production was 1.864 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons, or 0.5% year-on-year [1] - Sheep production saw a decline, with 132.80 million sheep slaughtered, down by 8.04 million, or 5.7% year-on-year [1] - By the end of the second quarter, the total cattle stock was 99.92 million, a decrease of 2.1% year-on-year, while the sheep stock was 30.083 million, down by 6.2% year-on-year [1] Group 4: Poultry Production - Poultry production experienced rapid growth, with 8.14 billion poultry slaughtered, an increase of 530 million, or 7.0% year-on-year [2] - Egg production reached 1.729 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons, or 1.5% year-on-year [2] - By the end of the second quarter, the total poultry stock was 6.33 billion, an increase of 0.2% year-on-year [2]

Group 1 - The pig market experiences distinct seasonal fluctuations, but these are not solely driven by demand. For instance, while the fourth quarter is typically a peak consumption period for pork, historical trends indicate that price highs often occur in July and August [2][5] - In July, pig prices initially surged, reaching 15.4 yuan per kilogram, but subsequently declined after mid-month, continuing a downward trend for over ten days [2] - The decline in pig prices is attributed to changing market sentiments, with this year's outlook being notably weaker compared to last year, which saw a strong rebound in prices [6][7] Group 2 - The increase in pig production last year has led to significant pressure on pig stocks this year, with a reported 36.619 million pigs slaughtered in the first half of the year, a 0.6% increase year-on-year, and a 1.3% rise in pork production [10] - Demand for pork remains stagnant, contributing to a supply-demand imbalance characterized by strong supply and weak demand, which has further driven down prices [13] - Although there is a possibility of price increases, the likelihood of significant price surges is low due to reduced enthusiasm for breeding and fattening pigs, coupled with unpredictable weather and rising feed costs, which have led to a more relaxed supply situation [15]

National Summer Grain Production - National summer grain planting area remained stable at 399 million acres, a decrease of 520,000 acres or 0.1% from the previous year, with 20 out of 25 provinces increasing their planting area [2] - Summer grain production reached 299.48 billion pounds, a decrease of 31 million pounds or 0.1% year-on-year, maintaining overall stability [2] - The average yield for summer grain was 375.6 kg per acre, an increase of 0.1 kg from the previous year, with winter wheat yield at 399.8 kg per acre, a decrease of 0.1% [3] Livestock Production - Total meat production from pigs, cattle, sheep, and poultry reached 48.43 million tons, an increase of 1.31 million tons or 2.8% year-on-year [4] - Pork production was 30.20 million tons, up 390,000 tons or 1.3%, while beef production increased by 150,000 tons or 4.5% [4] - Poultry production saw a significant increase, with 8.14 billion birds processed, up 530 million birds or 7.0% [5] Agricultural Product Market Stability - The overall producer price index for agricultural products decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, with a smaller decline in the second quarter compared to the first [6] - Grain prices fell by 4.3% year-on-year, with specific declines in wheat (3.7%), rice (2.6%), and corn (6.0%) [6] - Prices for fruits increased by 9.0%, while vegetable prices decreased by 6.0%, indicating mixed trends in agricultural product pricing [6]

Group 1 - The national summer grain production is stable, with a total yield of 2994.8 billion jin, a decrease of 3.1 billion jin or 0.1% compared to the previous year, maintaining overall stability [2] - The summer grain planting area is approximately 3.99 million acres, a decrease of 520,000 acres or 0.1% from the previous year, with 20 out of 25 provinces increasing their planting area [2] - The summer grain yield per acre is 375.6 kg, an increase of 0.1 kg from the previous year, remaining stable overall [2] Group 2 - The livestock production is generally stable, with a total meat output of 48.43 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [3] - Pork production is 30.2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, while beef production is 3.42 million tons, up 4.5% [3] - Poultry production has seen significant growth, with a total of 8.14 billion birds processed, a year-on-year increase of 7.0% [3] Group 3 - The overall price level of agricultural producers has decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, with a decline of 1.6% in Q1 and 1.1% in Q2, indicating a narrowing decline [4] - Corn prices have increased by 1.5% month-on-month, marking five consecutive months of growth, while prices for rice and soybeans have also seen slight increases [4] - Prices for livestock such as pigs, cattle, and sheep have slightly decreased, while vegetable prices have shown mixed trends and aquatic product prices have generally risen [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market shows mixed performance with the ChiNext Index leading gains at 1.73%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.42% [4][10] - The overall market capitalization of the Shanghai Composite Index is approximately 6799.77 billion, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12.56 [3] Economic Insights - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP reached 660,536 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [18][19] - Final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth, indicating strong domestic demand [17][19] Industry Dynamics - The storage chip market is experiencing price fluctuations, with DDR3, DDR4, and DDR5 products showing significant year-to-date price increases of 91.14%, 132.89%, and 29.49% respectively [30][31] - NVIDIA is expected to resume sales of its H20 GPUs to China, which could alleviate supply constraints in the AI sector and stimulate investment in AI infrastructure [32] Company Performance - Vogt Optoelectronics (603773.SH) anticipates a revenue increase of 10.36% to 26.68% in the first half of 2025, with projected revenues between 1.15 billion and 1.32 billion [34] - Reap Bio (300119.SZ) expects a net profit growth of 50% to 70%, with projected profits between 244 million and 277 million [37] - Nine安 Medical (002432.SZ) forecasts a net profit of 880 million to 980 million, representing a growth of 46.24% to 62.86% [39] - Xiantan Co., Ltd. (002746.SZ) predicts a staggering net profit growth of 326% to 365%, with profits expected between 131 million and 143 million [42] - New Hope (000876.SZ) anticipates a net profit increase of 156% to 164%, with profits projected between 680 million and 780 million [44] - Linyi Intelligent Manufacturing (002600.SZ) expects a net profit growth of 31.57% to 66.66%, with profits between 900 million and 1.14 billion [46]

Core Insights - The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences has successfully completed the world's first somatic cell cloning of a male yak, which has survived healthily for two months [1][2] - The cloning technology addresses the issue of male infertility in yaks, allowing for the stable inheritance of superior traits and potential large-scale breeding of quality genetic resources [1] Group 1: Cloning Achievement - The cloning was achieved by extracting somatic cells from a 9-year-old male yak and implanting them into a surrogate cow, resulting in a healthy calf weighing 26 kilograms [1] - Genetic testing confirmed that the cloned calf is genetically identical to the donor yak, marking a significant advancement in precision reproduction technology [1] Group 2: Technical Challenges Overcome - The research team overcame two major technical challenges in cloning animals in the high-altitude environment of the Tibetan Plateau [2] - They established a high-altitude embryo culture system to control temperature and pH for early embryo development, and developed a plan for selecting surrogate mothers and synchronizing estrus to improve pregnancy success rates [2] - This research is the first successful application of somatic cell cloning technology in the in-situ conservation system of high-altitude resources, supported by national key research and development programs [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen significant performance forecasts from nearly 1500 listed companies for the first half of 2025, with over 630 companies expecting positive results and more than 820 anticipating declines [1] Group 1: Performance Forecasts - Over 800 listed companies disclosed their performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, with a notable focus on companies from Hunan province [1] - Among the companies, Huaneng Power ranked second in terms of year-on-year profit growth [1] - A total of 56 stocks are expected to see net profit growth exceeding 1000%, with Southern Precision, Huaneng Power, and others leading the list [2] Group 2: Major Profit Increases - Southern Precision forecasts a net profit of 200 million to 250 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 28647% to 35784%, primarily due to non-recurring gains from equity investments [2] - China Shenhua, Zijin Mining, and others are expected to report net profits exceeding 10 billion yuan, with Muyuan Foods projecting a net profit of 10.2 billion to 10.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1129.97% to 1190.26% [2] Group 3: Expected Losses - Some companies, including Vanke A, Huaxia Happiness, and Tongwei Co., are forecasting significant losses, with Vanke A expecting a loss of 10 billion to 12 billion yuan due to decreased project settlement scale and low profit margins [3] - Vanke A has taken steps to mitigate debt risks, securing 24.9 billion yuan in new financing and successfully repaying 16.49 billion yuan in public debt [3] - Huaneng Power is expected to report a net profit of 180 million to 220 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 175 million to 215 million yuan, driven by increased power generation and reduced fuel costs [3]

Economic Data Summary - In the first half of the year, the per capita disposable income of rural residents reached 11,936 yuan, with a nominal growth of 5.9% and a real growth of 6.2%, outpacing urban residents' income growth [5][17] - The overall employment situation remains stable, with a slight decrease in the urban survey unemployment rate, which averaged 5.2% for the first half of the year, down by 0.1 percentage points from the first quarter [20][21] - The total number of rural laborers working outside their hometowns reached 19,139 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [6][24] Agricultural Production - The GDP for the first half of the year was 660,536 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [8] - The value added in the primary industry was 31,172 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [9] - The total summer grain production was 14,974 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons or 0.1% compared to the previous year [10] Consumer Spending - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 245,458 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, accelerating by 0.4 percentage points compared to the first quarter [26] - Sales of essential and some upgraded consumer goods showed strong growth, with retail sales of grain and oil, sports and entertainment products, and gold and silver jewelry increasing by 12.3%, 22.2%, and 11.3% respectively [28] Price Stability - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year in the first half of the year [30] - Food and tobacco prices fell by 0.3%, while clothing prices rose by 1.3% and housing prices increased by 0.1% [31] - Notably, fresh vegetable prices dropped by 5.3%, while pork prices increased by 3.8% [33]

Core Insights - The agricultural (planting) value added in the first half of the year increased by 3.7% year-on-year [1] - The total summer grain production reached 149.74 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons or 0.1% compared to the previous year [1] - The total meat production (pork, beef, lamb, and poultry) was 48.43 million tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [1] Agricultural Production - Pork production increased by 1.3%, beef by 4.5%, and poultry by 7.4%, while lamb production decreased by 4.6% [1] - Milk production grew by 0.5%, and egg production increased by 1.5% [1] Livestock Statistics - By the end of the second quarter, the number of live pigs was 424.47 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [1] - In the first half of the year, the number of pigs slaughtered was 366.19 million, marking a growth of 0.6% [1]