2025 年 11 月 22 日 市场承压回调，关注超跌品种的博 型 机会 公募 REITs 周度跟踪（2025.11.17-2025.11.21） 指数修复,发改委支持民间项目发 公墓 REITs 周唐韻院 (2025.11.10-2025.11.14)》 025/11/15 《沈软 REIT 上市破发，交投再度回 公募 REITs 周度跟踪 (2025.11.03-2025.11.07)》 2025/11/08 《三季报延续分化, 保障房、消费更 为稳健- 公募 REITs 周度跟踪 (2025.10.27-2025.10.31)》 2025/11/01 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yanqxf@swsresearch.com 研究支持 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 REITs 各板块普跌 ...

2025 年 11 月 22 日 市场承压回调，关注超跌品种的博 弈机会 ——公募 REITs 周度跟踪（2025.11.17-2025.11.21） 相关研究 《指数修复，发改委支持民间项目发 行 REITs——公募 REITs 周度跟踪 （2025.11.10-2025.11.14）》 2025/11/15 《沈软 REIT 上市破发，交投再度回 落——公募 REITs 周度跟踪 （2025.11.03-2025.11.07）》 2025/11/08 《三季报延续分化，保障房、消费更 为稳健——公募 REITs 周度跟踪 （2025.10.27-2025.10.31）》 2025/11/01 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 研究支持 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.com 债 券 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Viewpoints - The REITs market in China has shown signs of cooling, with the CSI REITs Index down by 3.8% in September-October, underperforming other asset classes such as equity indices and gold [2][21] - The recent weakness in the REITs market is attributed to high previous valuations, capital being diverted to better-performing assets, and disappointing cash flow recovery in certain sectors [2][21] - The second public heating REIT in Shanxi has been submitted for approval, highlighting its resource and location advantages, stable revenue sources, and a reasonable pricing model [4][45] Summary by Sections REITs Market and Asset Comparison - The overall REITs market has experienced a downturn, with the average turnover rate at 0.44%, which is 65% of the annual average [2][18] - The CSI REITs Index has underperformed compared to other major indices, with a cumulative decline of 2.3% [13][21] - The market is facing pressure from rising government bond yields, which compress the yield spread of REITs [21][22] Sector Performance - The IDC sector shows high trading activity, while sectors linked to economic recovery, such as logistics and consumption, are under pressure [23][24] - Defensive sectors like affordable rental housing and environmental services have demonstrated strong anti-drawdown characteristics [23][24] - The highest trading volumes in September-October were seen in highways, industrial parks, and affordable rental housing, with respective average transaction volume shares of 21.8%, 17.1%, and 14.3% [25][36] Monthly Special: Shanxi Heating REIT - The Shanxi heating REIT is notable for its low heat source costs and stable pricing, benefiting from the region's energy advantages [4][45][46] - The pricing model includes a two-part fee structure that allows for effective recovery of fixed costs [52][55] - The project has a high proportion of residential users, ensuring stable and diversified revenue [58][63] Market Dynamics - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued a document supporting the expansion of the REITs market, indicating a favorable policy environment [5][64] - Recent project dynamics show several REITs in various stages of approval, indicating ongoing market activity [68] Investment Recommendations - The current REITs market presents both opportunities and risks, with a focus on stable cash flow assets in the defensive sector [6][69] - It is recommended to explore undervalued sectors such as logistics and industrial parks for potential rebounds, given their low valuations and high yield spreads [70][71]

Group 1 - The report highlights the support from five government departments for the issuance of REITs in commercial real estate, aiming to provide long-term financing support for urban commercial quality improvement [1][7]. - The total issuance scale of listed REITs reached 198.2 billion yuan, with 76 REITs issued as of October 31, 2025 [8][9]. - The report indicates that the REITs market has shown positive performance, with the total REITs index rising by 0.28% during the week of October 27 to October 31, 2025, outperforming major indices [2][14]. Group 2 - The liquidity of the REITs market has improved, with a total trading volume of 661 million yuan, an increase of 21.4% compared to the previous week [3][34]. - The report details the trading volume of various REIT categories, with consumption infrastructure REITs accounting for 21.0% of the total trading volume [34][36]. - The report provides insights into the performance of individual REITs, with notable gains from Chuangjin Hexin Shounong REIT (+4.22%) and Southern Wanguo Data Center REIT (+4.09%) [2][26]. Group 3 - The report discusses the correlation of the REITs index with major asset classes, indicating varying degrees of correlation over different time frames [28][30]. - The internal correlation among different REIT categories is also analyzed, showing strong relationships among infrastructure and logistics REITs [29]. Group 4 - The report emphasizes the valuation aspects of REITs, although specific valuation metrics are not detailed in the provided content [41].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Market liquidity continues to improve, but attention should be paid to the selling pressure brought by concentrated share unlocks. The market was volatile this week, with the first three days in adjustment and the last two days in rebound. The data center and environmental protection water sectors led the gains, while the consumption and affordable housing sectors led the losses. The market trading activity is increasing during the third - quarter report window period, but the unlocking pressure of strategic allocation shares of REITs needs attention. On October 29, 46% of the shares of Huatai Baowan Logistics REIT will be unlocked (about 603 million yuan), and about 7.5 billion yuan of shares are expected to be unlocked in November [3]. - As of October 24, 2025, 18 new public REITs have been successfully issued this year, with a total issuance scale of 36.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 24.2%. Two new public REITs achieved new progress this week. The CSI REITs Total Return Index closed at 1045.13 points, up 0.16% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 by 3.08 percentage points and the CSI Dividend by 0.89 percentage points [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market: Two Newly Issued Public REITs Achieved New Progress - This year, 18 public REITs have been successfully issued, with a total issuance scale of 36.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 24.2%. Two newly issued public REITs, CITIC Construction Investment Shenyang International Software Park REIT and China Asset Management China Overseas Commercial REIT, have been established. There are currently 10 newly issued REITs under application, 3 have been questioned and responded, 3 have passed the review, and 3 have been registered and are waiting for listing. For the expansion, 5 have been applied, 3 have been questioned and responded, and 2 have passed the review [4][15]. 2. Secondary Market: Liquidity Continued to Improve This Week 2.1 Market Review: The CSI REITs Total Return Index Fell 0.16% - The CSI REITs Total Return Index closed at 1045.13 points, up 0.16% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 by 3.08 percentage points and the CSI Dividend by 0.89 percentage points. Year - to - date, it has risen 7.98%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 10.46 percentage points and outperforming the CSI Dividend by 6.66 percentage points. This week, equity - based REITs fell 0.13%, while concession - based REITs rose 0.46%. In terms of asset types, the data center, environmental protection water, transportation, and warehousing logistics sectors performed well [4]. 2.2 Liquidity: Both Turnover Rate and Trading Volume Increased - The average daily turnover rates of equity - based and concession - based REITs this week were 0.53% and 0.47% respectively, an increase of 13.70BP and 11.36BP compared to last week. The trading volumes were 496 million and 134 million shares respectively, a week - on - week increase of 35.73% and 31.88%. The data center sector was the most active [4][24]. 2.3 Valuation: The Affordable Housing Sector Had a Higher Valuation - The ChinaBond valuation yields of equity - based and concession - based REITs were 3.93% and 4.07% respectively. The warehousing logistics, transportation, and park sectors ranked among the top in terms of valuation [4][29]. 3. This Week's News and Important Announcements News - On October 22, Shenghao Group launched the issuance of communication tower infrastructure public REITs, and companies such as China Merchants Fund conducted in - depth discussions. On October 23, Guangzhou supported the issuance of REITs in the consumption and cultural tourism fields; Qingcheng Mountain - Dujiangyan Scenic Area REITs launched the selection of asset evaluation institutions; Zhoushan International Aquatic City's public REITs project passed the review; Hunan Province solicited opinions on promoting the issuance of REITs for urban renewal projects [32]. Announcements - Multiple REITs released operation data and share unlock announcements. For example, China Merchants Expressway REIT's daily average toll - paying traffic volume in September 2025 was 16,000 vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of 3.5% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.2%. Huatai Baowan Logistics REIT's 138 million strategic allocation shares will be unlocked on October 29 [32].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has issued a notice to enhance the regular application and recommendation process for infrastructure Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), aiming to support the acquisition of new projects through fundraising and simplify the application process for new acquisitions [1] Group 1: Policy Support and Market Impact - The notice encourages existing infrastructure REITs to raise funds through expansion to acquire quality assets, with a focus on sectors like transportation, energy, logistics, and rental housing [1][4] - The expansion policy is expected to lead to more infrastructure REITs achieving scale breakthroughs and becoming influential capital operation platforms nationwide [1][4] - The successful expansion of the Huaxia Beijing Affordable Housing REIT, which raised net funds of 555 million yuan, demonstrates the positive effects of the expansion policy [2][4] Group 2: Simplification of Application Process - The notice simplifies the application process for new acquisitions, allowing REITs to submit applications six months after their initial public offering, which is expected to accelerate the injection of quality assets [4][5] - This simplification is anticipated to enhance the participation of original equity holders in the expansion process, addressing challenges related to upfront investment and long recovery periods in public rental housing projects [4][5] Group 3: Asset Diversification and Risk Management - The notice supports the acquisition of similar projects within the same industry and related projects across different industries, promoting asset diversification and risk management [5][6] - Cross-regional expansion is highlighted as a means to effectively disperse regional risks and enhance the dividend capacity of REITs' asset portfolios [5][6] - The experience from international markets indicates that expansion is a primary method for achieving growth in the REITs market, with ongoing expansion being a sign of market maturity [5][6] Group 4: Regional Development and Collaboration - Local development and reform commissions are encouraged to assist project initiators in completing investment management procedures and expedite project application processes [6] - The NDRC will recognize regions with high-quality project reserves and those actively supporting project applications, fostering a collaborative environment for infrastructure REITs [6]

Group 1: Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is actively supporting the issuance of REITs for eligible private investment projects, particularly in infrastructure sectors such as railways, nuclear power, and public services [1][7]. - The report emphasizes the need for a long-term mechanism to enhance private enterprises' participation in major national projects and to promote investment in emerging and future industries [1][7]. Group 2: Market Performance - During the week of August 18-22, 2025, the CSI REITs total return index fell by 1.74%, with the total REITs index down by 1.77% [2][16]. - The total REITs index underperformed the CSI 300 index by 5.95 percentage points and the CSI All Bond index by 1.34 percentage points [2][16]. - The top-performing REITs included Zhongjin Chongqing Liangjiang REIT (+2.33%) and Gongyinhe North Expressway REIT (+2.18%), while the worst performers were Zhongjin Xiamen Anju REIT (-6.28%) and Huatai Suzhou Hengtai Rental Housing REIT (-6.18%) [2][16]. Group 3: Liquidity - The total trading volume of REITs increased, with a weekly average trading volume (MA5) of 727 million yuan, up 11.2% from the previous week [3][36]. - The trading volumes for property and operating rights REITs were 493 million yuan and 233 million yuan, reflecting increases of 15.7% and 2.8%, respectively [3][36]. - The largest category by trading volume was park infrastructure REITs, accounting for 21.4% of the total [3][36]. Group 4: Industry Dynamics - As of August 22, 2025, the total issuance scale of listed REITs reached 190.9 billion yuan, with 73 REITs issued [8][10]. - The report indicates a trend towards the normalization of REIT issuance, with significant expansions in the underlying asset categories over the past years [15][10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [2][5]. Core Insights - The REITs market remains active with the successful issuance of the first industrial park holding-type ABS in China, indicating a growing interest in this asset class [5][6]. - The market performance shows a mixed trend, with the CSI REITs index experiencing a year-on-year increase of 6.24% but a week-on-week decrease of 1.62% [5][7]. - The trading volume in the REITs market reached 690 million units, a year-on-year increase of 40.24%, while the transaction amount reached 3.266 billion yuan, up 67.06% year-on-year [5][29]. Market Review - The CSI REITs closing index for the 33rd week of 2025 was 853.96, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.24% and a week-on-week decrease of 1.62% [7][17]. - The CSI REITs total return index was 1080.91, with a year-on-year increase of 11.48% and a week-on-week decrease of 1.49% [22]. - Cumulative performance from the beginning of 2024 shows the CSI REITs index has increased by 12.89%, while the CSI 300 index has increased by 22.48%, resulting in a cumulative excess return of -9.59% [17][22]. Sector Performance - Weekly performance for various REIT sectors showed declines: affordable housing (-3.39%), environmental protection (-1.16%), highways (-1.18%), industrial parks (-1.75%), warehousing and logistics (-1.00%), energy (-1.78%), and consumer REITs (-0.98%) [39][56]. - Monthly performance for the same sectors indicated a mixed trend, with industrial parks down 3.93% and consumer REITs up 0.82% [39]. Upcoming Listings - There are currently 11 REITs funds awaiting listing, indicating continued activity in the issuance market [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of consumption infrastructure REITs in 2024, with an average end-period occupancy rate increase of approximately 3.2 percentage points year-on-year across 12 assets [1][18] - The report by JLL discusses the latest developments in the Asian REITs market for 2024, focusing on the performance of REITs in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Japan, while also analyzing the growth of China's public REITs market [2] - As of December 31, 2024, there are 263 active REITs in the Asian market, an increase of 38 from the end of 2023, with a total market capitalization of $235.8 billion, reflecting a 6.5% decline year-on-year [3] Group 2 - The report indicates a divergence in development between mature and emerging markets in Asia, with mature markets like Japan, Singapore, and Hong Kong experiencing a decline in market share due to stock price drops and currency depreciation, while emerging markets, particularly in mainland China, are seeing growth [6] - Industrial/logistics REITs have surpassed office REITs in distribution yield, becoming the highest yielding type, while office and data center REITs have seen significant declines [8] - The average stock price increase for China's public REITs (C-REITs) is 26% as of March 31, 2025, with a total issuance scale reaching 174.8 billion yuan and a total market capitalization of 186 billion yuan [11][13] Group 3 - The C-REITs market shows strong performance in both consumption infrastructure and affordable rental housing REITs, with occupancy rates remaining above 93% and rental prices showing slight increases [18] - The average price-to-net asset ratio for C-REITs is 1.24, with only 6 out of 64 REITs trading at a discount, indicating a competitive advantage compared to the generally discounted state of mature Asian REITs markets [15] - The integration of ESG principles in public REITs has seen significant growth, with a nearly doubled increase in ESG report disclosures compared to the previous year, reflecting a trend towards improved transparency and sustainability [19] Group 4 - The rapid development of China's public infrastructure REITs market in 2024 is marked by record issuance speed and scale, supported by favorable policies [20] - The diversification of underlying assets in the C-REITs market is evident with the introduction of new asset types such as consumption infrastructure and medical logistics [20] - The lower interest rate environment has attracted investor attention to the higher distribution yields, leading to increased market activity and inflow of new capital [21]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [2][4]. Core Insights - The first equity-type asset-backed securities (ABS) have been successfully issued, indicating a vibrant issuance market [5][13]. - The market for REITs is expected to continue to perform well due to the downward pressure on bond market interest rates and the anticipated entry of social security and pension funds, enhancing the cost-effectiveness of allocations in this sector [4][6]. Market Overview - As of the 17th week of 2025, the CSI REITs index closed at 858.24, up 6.62% year-on-year but down 0.53% month-on-month. The CSI REITs total return index stood at 1058.94, up 11.55% year-on-year but down 1.43% month-on-month [6][21]. - The trading volume in the REITs market reached 677 million units, a year-on-year increase of 23.32%, with a transaction value of 2.947 billion yuan, up 39.67% year-on-year [28][34]. Sector Performance - Weekly and monthly performance of various REITs sectors showed fluctuations: - Affordable housing REITs decreased by 2.15% weekly but increased by 3.44% monthly - Environmental, highway, industrial park, warehousing logistics, energy, and consumer REITs also experienced declines [40][57]. - The performance of the REITs market indicates a mixed trend, with some sectors showing resilience while others face challenges [40][58]. Upcoming Developments - There are currently 13 REITs funds awaiting listing, indicating ongoing activity in the issuance market [7][40].