正文 摘要 2026年1月6日第一财经研究院中国高频经济活动指数（YHEI）为1.13，较2025年12月30日上升0.05。具体来看，截至1月6日的一周内，工业相关指标"沿 海煤炭运价指数"上升0.13，是YHEI走高的重要原因；"进口干散货运价指数"则与一周前水平基本接近（1.15）。 国家统计局公布2025年12月采购经理指数。12月，制造业PMI为50.1%，高于上月0.9个百分点，为2025年4月以来首次回到扩张区间，制造业景气水平有 所回升。其中，高技术制造业、装备制造业和消费品行业PMI分别高于上月2.4、0.6和1.0个百分点至52.5%、50.4%和50.4%，均高于荣枯线。 从具体指标来看，2025年12月，制造业市场需求显著回升，新订单指数由上个月的49.2%升至50.8%。新出口订单指数则高于上月1.4个百分点至49.0%，也 有一定改善。伴随着市场需求上升，制造业企业生产活动持续增多，12月，生产指数高于上月1.7个百分点至51.7%；对原材料的需求也相应地有所增加， 采购量指数高于上月1.6个百分点至51.1%，回到扩张区间。12月，供货商配送时间指数则高于上月0.1个百分点至50 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - High - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production - side heat marginally improves, with increased operating rates of coke ovens, asphalt, PTA, and all - steel tires, while rebar production, semi - steel tire, and blast furnace operating rates decline; commercial housing transaction area improves for two consecutive weeks, and the land supply area of 100 large - and medium - sized cities reaches a seasonal peak; overall prices rise, with increases in crude oil, metal, and agricultural product prices, but continuous decline in coking coal and pork prices; the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) continuously rises significantly, reaching a new high since December 7, 2023. Short - term focus is on the implementation of incremental policies in consumption and investment and the recovery of the real estate market [2][30]. Summary by Directory 1. Production: Heat Marginally Improves, Operating Rates of Coke Ovens, Asphalt, PTA, and All - Steel Tires Rise - **Steel**: In the week of November 28, the coke oven capacity utilization rate increased by 0.92 pct, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.62 pct, and rebar production decreased by 1.88 tons. The coke oven capacity utilization rate of domestic independent coking plants (230 samples) was 72.02%, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills (247 samples) was 81.09%, and the national building material steel mill rebar production was 206.08 tons, with inventory decreasing by 6.59 tons [2][8]. - **Petroleum Asphalt**: In the week of November 26, the operating rate of domestic petroleum asphalt plants stabilized and rebounded by 3.0 pct, reaching 27.8% [8]. - **Chemical Industry**: On November 27, the PX operating rate remained flat at 90.13%, and the PTA operating rate increased by 2.64 pct to 73.81% [8]. - **Automobile Tires**: In the week of November 27, the all - steel tire operating rate increased by 2.02 pct to 63.33%, and the semi - steel tire operating rate decreased by 1.88 pct to 69.19% [9]. 2. Demand: Land Supply Reaches Seasonal Peak, BDI Reaches New High in Nearly Two Years - **Real Estate**: In the week of November 23, the commercial housing transaction area continued to rise, the inventory - to - sales ratio increased, the land supply area reached an annual peak, and the residential land transaction premium rate decreased. The commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 204.59 million square meters, the inventory - to - sales ratio of 10 large cities was 112.65, the land supply area of 100 large - and medium - sized cities was 5354.75 million square meters, and the residential land transaction premium rate was 0.73% [13]. - **Movie Box Office**: In the week of November 23, the national movie box office revenue decreased by 193 million yuan compared with the previous week, amounting to 463 million yuan [13]. - **Automobile**: In the week of November 23, the daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 0.38 million vehicles to 71,131 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 1.67 million vehicles to 95,654 vehicles [15]. - **Shipping Freight Rates**: In the week of November 28, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) rose slightly by 0.69% to 1403.13 points, the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) slightly declined by 0.09% to 1121.8 points, and the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose significantly by 12.53% to 2560 points, reaching a new high since December 7, 2023 [18]. 3. Prices: Crude Oil, Metal, and Agricultural Product Prices All Rebound, Coking Coal Continues to Decline - **Energy**: On November 28, the Brent crude oil futures settlement price rose by 0.64% to $63.2 per barrel, and the coking coal futures settlement price decreased by 4.4% to 1064 yuan per ton [20]. - **Metal**: On November 28, the LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices increased by 3.69%, 2.03%, and 1.97% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price rose by 1.24% [21]. - **Agricultural Products**: On November 28, the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index rose by 0.89% to 126.49. Among major agricultural products, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.45% to 17.83 yuan per kilogram, the average wholesale price of eggs increased by 1.24% to 7.35 yuan per kilogram, the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables increased by 1.94% to 5.79 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits increased by 1.83% to 7.22 yuan per kilogram [23][24]. 4. Logistics: Domestic Flight Volume Decreases, Urban Congestion Index Continues to Rise - **Subway Passenger Volume**: On November 27, the seven - day moving average of Beijing subway passenger volume decreased by 25.24 million person - times to 980.86 million person - times, and that of Shanghai decreased by 9.29 million person - times to 1068.43 million person - times [26]. - **Flight Execution Volume**: On November 28, the seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight execution volume decreased by 49 flights to 12,484.29 flights, that of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) decreased by 1.43 flights to 363.71 flights, and that of international flights increased by 13 flights to 1839 flights [27]. - **Urban Traffic**: On November 28, the seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index of first - tier cities continued to rise by 0.05 to 1.73 [27]. 5. Summary: Production Marginally Improves, Overall Prices Rise - High - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production - side heat marginally improves, with increased operating rates of coke ovens, asphalt, PTA, and all - steel tires, while rebar production, semi - steel tire, and blast furnace operating rates decline; commercial housing transaction area improves for two consecutive weeks, and the land supply area of 100 large - and medium - sized cities reaches a seasonal peak; overall prices rise, with increases in crude oil, metal, and agricultural product prices, but continuous decline in coking coal and pork prices; the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) continuously rises significantly, reaching a new high since December 7, 2023. Short - term focus is on the implementation of incremental policies in consumption and investment and the recovery of the real estate market [30].

Economic Activity Index - The China High-Frequency Economic Activity Index (YHEI) as of November 25, 2025, is 1.27, an increase of 0.02 from November 18 [1][3] - The "import dry bulk freight index" rose by 0.05 to 1.29, while the "30-city commodity housing sales index" fluctuated between 0.44 and 0.46 [1][3] Industrial Sector Performance - From January to October 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 59,502.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, which is 1.3 percentage points lower than the growth rate from January to September [19] - The revenue and cost growth rates for the same period were both 0.6 percentage points lower than those from January to September, at 1.8% and 2.0% respectively [19] - State-owned industrial enterprises' profits remained stable compared to the previous year, while joint-stock enterprises saw a profit increase of 1.5% to 44,328.3 billion yuan, foreign and Hong Kong-Macau-Taiwan enterprises increased by 3.5% to 14,848.6 billion yuan, and private enterprises grew by 1.9% to 16,995.6 billion yuan [19] Profitability by Industry - Profitability varied across industries from January to October 2025, with the mining industry's profit margin rising from 16.68% to 16.76%, while the manufacturing sector's profit margin remained stable at 4.57% [2][19] - The profit margin for the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry decreased from 7.05% to 6.97% [2][19] Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - As of November 25, 2025, the central bank's net fund injection through open market operations was 337.5 billion yuan, with a reverse repurchase amount of 1,626.3 billion yuan and a 7-day reverse repurchase rate of 1.4% [5] - The overnight interbank rate decreased by 17 basis points to 1.41%, while the 7-day repurchase rate remained unchanged at 1.54% [8][9] Real Estate Market - New housing transaction areas in first, second, and third-tier cities increased by 10.84%, 23.06%, and 12.72% respectively, while second-hand housing transaction areas decreased by 5.84%, 2.64%, and 13.86% [30] - The average daily transaction area for all types of housing was below the level of the previous year [30] Consumer Behavior - The average daily box office revenue for movies was 64.23 million yuan, a decrease of 36.73 million yuan from the previous week [34] - The road logistics price index increased by 0.07% over the past month, up 0.48% year-on-year [34] Global Economic Indicators - The US dollar index rose by 0.22 points to 99.81, while the RMB to USD exchange rate increased by 187 basis points to 7.0938 [35][38] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange VIX index decreased by 6.13 points to 18.56 [35][38]

进博会的许多参展商，也是投资商。三星持续投资中国，尖端产业投资占比近90%；米其林在沈阳和上 海投产多条轮胎产线以满足新能源汽车市场需求；施耐德电气多个研发中心、创新实验室相继落地…… 外企的"不约而同"传递出一个清晰信号：今日之中国，不仅是重要的出口目的地，也是极富价值的投资 地、创业地。 还有展商这样说："8年我们一次都没有缺席，每年进博会都不负期待。" 穿梭在不同的展台，时时可以听见主播推介产品的声音，"我们在进博会现场"为品牌形象增色不少。一 个个新品牌、新产品在"四叶草"亮相，进而提高知名度、认可度。线下洽谈签约、线上浏览下单，火热 的合作场景，成为中国市场优势的缩影。 14亿多人口的超大规模市场，随着消费升级与产业变革还在不断催生新需求，对外企外资的吸引力也与 日俱增，适合外商投资兴业的场景更加丰富。用好进博会等开放平台，丰富国内市场绿色、健康、智能 的高品质供给，必能进一步释放市场潜力，为高品质生活、高质量发展添彩。 究其原因，我国拥有完备的产业链和发达的物流网络，能及时响应需求，为生产、运输等环节提供强大 支撑，在成本、速度等方面具有明显优势。更重要的是，随着我国产业体系日渐向智能化、绿色化、 ...

Core Insights - The China International Import Expo (CIIE) has achieved a record intended transaction amount of $83.49 billion, highlighting China's growing attractiveness as a destination for investment and entrepreneurship [1] - China is advancing a comprehensive system of institutional openness, with a notable increase in its openness index by 0.5% year-on-year, contrasting with a slight global decline [1] - The presence of foreign companies at CIIE indicates a strong signal that China is not only a key export destination but also a valuable investment location [2] Group 1 - The CIIE has become a year-round platform for various activities, enhancing its appeal to exhibitors and investors alike [1] - The establishment of 16 dedicated customs channels for the CIIE demonstrates China's commitment to facilitating trade and investment [1] - The continuous reduction of the negative list for foreign investment reflects China's determination to create a more favorable business environment for foreign enterprises [1] Group 2 - The large-scale market of over 1.4 billion people in China is driving new demands, making it increasingly attractive for foreign investment [2] - Foreign companies like Samsung and Michelin are making significant investments in China, particularly in high-tech and green industries [2] - The robust industrial chain and logistics network in China provide a competitive advantage in terms of cost and speed for production and transportation [3] Group 3 - The shift towards intelligent, green, and integrated industrial systems in China is creating unprecedented opportunities for global innovation [3] - Companies that leverage China's industrial ecosystem, such as Medtronic, are successfully exporting products to over 120 countries [3] - The strong appeal of the Chinese market is rooted in the country's comprehensive national strength and commitment to high-quality development [3]

Group 1: Event Overview - The China International Import Expo (CIIE) serves as a significant platform for global businesses to engage with the Chinese market, showcasing the country's openness and investment potential [2][3][4] - The event features various international exhibitors, highlighting China's role as a fertile ground for global commerce and investment [2][3] Group 2: Market Opportunities - The Ministry of Commerce launched the "Shared Big Market · Export to China" initiative, emphasizing the importance of collaboration and mutual benefits in the global market [3] - General Electric Medical has successfully introduced over 50 precision medical innovations to the Chinese market, indicating strong demand and growth potential in the healthcare sector [3] - Procter & Gamble showcased new products tailored for the Chinese market, reflecting a consumer-centric approach to innovation and sustainable growth [4] Group 3: Investment and Innovation - The CIIE is viewed as a strategic platform for companies like Michelin to deepen their connection with the Chinese market and foster innovation [5] - China is accelerating its green, digital, and intelligent development, with international cooperation being essential for driving innovation [5][6] - The event facilitates significant procurement agreements, such as those by China National Offshore Oil Corporation, focusing on clean and low-carbon supply chains [4][5] Group 4: Global Collaboration - The CIIE promotes free and fair trade, with participants expressing a strong desire for collaboration and shared growth [7] - The event has attracted diverse international exhibitors, showcasing products from various countries and enhancing trade relations [8] - The 10th anniversary of the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement highlights the ongoing commitment to deepening market engagement and brand development in China [8]

Core Insights - The successful arrival and storage of the first batch of 1,200 tons of No. 20 rubber at Tianjin marks the first bonded delivery of this futures product in the region, enhancing the operational capabilities of the East Jiang Comprehensive Bonded Zone [2][4] - The establishment of the No. 20 rubber futures delivery warehouse in Tianjin is significant as it is the city's first and only facility with bonded delivery capabilities for this futures product, which is crucial for the rubber processing industry [2][4] Industry Developments - The East Jiang area is leveraging its multiple functional policies as a Free Trade Zone, Comprehensive Bonded Zone, and Port to enhance its role in international shipping and financial innovation [4] - The successful implementation of the No. 20 rubber futures delivery business aligns with the trend of stable supply of bulk raw materials, which is increasingly important for the manufacturing sector in the context of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development [4] Future Outlook - The East Jiang area plans to continue expanding the range of futures delivery categories and innovate service models, aiming to attract more upstream and downstream enterprises in the rubber industry [4] - The development of the No. 20 rubber futures delivery business is expected to enhance the port's resource allocation capabilities within the international trade network, contributing to the integration of port, industry, and city [4]

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a fixed - income report released on June 9, 2025 [1] - Analysts are Liang Weichao (SAC registration number: S1340523070001) and Cui Chao (SAC registration number: S1340523120001) [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - High - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production is stable with a slight decline, real estate shows continuous marginal improvement, prices have a marginal recovery, and shipping indices continue to rise significantly. Short - term attention should be paid to the implementation of new growth - stabilizing stimulus policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and changes in US tariff policies [2][31] Group 3: Production - In the week of June 6, the capacity utilization rate of coke ovens decreased by 0.15 pct, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.31 pct, and the output of rebar decreased by 7.05 tons. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt increased by 3.6 pct, the PX operating rate increased by 4.91 pct, and the PTA operating rate increased by 6.1 pct. The operating rate of all - steel tires decreased by 1.33 pct, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 4.39 pct [3][10][11] Group 4: Demand - In the week of June 1, the real estate market continued to improve, with the transaction area of commercial housing rising and the inventory - to - sales ratio falling. The land transaction area increased, and the premium rate of residential land transactions decreased. The movie box office increased by 235 million yuan compared with the previous week. In the week of May 31, the daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 34,500 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 80,700 vehicles. In the week of June 6, the shipping index SCFI rose 8.09%, CCFI rose 3.34%, and BDI rose 15.16% [3][14][20] Group 5: Prices - In the week of June 6, Brent crude oil prices rose 4.02% to $66.47 per barrel, coking coal futures prices rose 5.06% to 779 yuan per ton. The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +1.83%, +0.12%, and +1.25% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures prices rose 0.64%. The overall price of agricultural products decreased, with the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changing by - 0.97%, - 2.96%, +0.46%, and - 0.64% respectively compared with the previous week [3][22][24] Group 6: Logistics - In the week of June 7, the subway passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai decreased, and the peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to decline. In the week of May 28, the number of domestic and international flights decreased [4][27][29]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production heat improved overall with some开工率 rising and others falling; real estate improved marginally; prices continued to decline; shipping indices rose significantly. - Short - term attention should be paid to the implementation of new stable - growth stimulus policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and changes in US tariff policies [2][34]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Production - Steel: On the week of May 30, the coke oven capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.1 pct, the blast furnace开工率 increased by 0.18 pct, and the rebar production decreased by 5.97 tons [3][11]. - Petroleum asphalt: The开工率 decreased by 3.1 pct and declined for two consecutive weeks [3][11]. - Chemicals: The PX开工率 increased by 5.33 pct, and the PTA开工率 decreased by 0.58 pct [3][11]. - Automobile tires: The all - steel tire开工率 decreased by 0.16 pct, and the semi - steel tire开工率 increased by 0.03 pct [3][12]. Demand - Real estate: On the week of May 25, the commercial housing transaction area increased, the inventory - to - sales ratio decreased, the land transaction area increased, and the residential land transaction premium rate rose [4][15]. - Movie box office: It increased by 0.35 billion yuan on the week of May 25 [4][15]. - Automobiles: On the week of May 25, the daily average retail sales of manufacturers increased by 9,648 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 19,637 vehicles [4][18]. - Shipping indices: On the week of May 30, SCFI rose by 30.68%, CCFI rose by 0.92%, and BDI rose by 5.82% [4][22]. Prices - Energy: On May 30, Brent crude oil prices fell by 1.36% to $63.9 per barrel, and coking coal futures prices fell by 9.07% to 741.5 yuan per ton [5][24]. - Metals: On May 30, LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by - 1.22%, - 0.71%, and - 3.06% respectively, and domestic rebar futures prices fell by 3.01% [5][25]. - Agricultural products: The overall price stabilized, with the wholesale price index of agricultural products rising by 0.04%. Pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits prices changed by - 1.38%, - 1.64%, + 1.41%, and - 0.38% respectively compared with the previous week [5][27]. Logistics - Subway passenger volume: On May 30, the seven - day moving average of Beijing subway passenger volume decreased by 20,800 person - times, while that of Shanghai increased by 128,600 person - times [6][30]. - Flight volume: On May 28, domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan), domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan), and international flight volumes decreased [6][31]. - Urban traffic: On May 30, the seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index in first - tier cities decreased [6][31].