2025 年 12 月 29 日 PP：1 月多套 PDH 计划检修，盘面企稳震荡 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 商 品 研 究 | LLDPE 基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | | PP2605 | 6266 | -0.19% | 405723 | -3751 | | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 基差月差变化 | 05合约基差 | -146 | | -158 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -19 | | -22 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | | 前日价格（元/吨） | | | | 华 北 | 6050 | | 6020 | | | | 华 东 | 6120 | | 6120 | | | | 华 南 | 6210 | | 6220 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货盘面震荡， ...

南华期货LPG产业周报 ——近端仍有支撑，预期承压 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428） 研究助理：沈玮玮（期货从业证书：F03140197 ） 联系邮箱：shenweiwei@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月28日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响LPG价格走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1）成本端原油市场震荡反复：国际原油一方面承受供应过剩的基本面压力，另一方面持续受到地缘政治风险 事件的扰动。本周受美委影响周初延续上周的反弹，下半周整体偏震荡。 2）外盘丙烷走势坚挺：海外丙烷市场表现相对强势。美国本周在浓雾及假期影响下发运偏低，中东地区同样 发运量仍处于低位，供应偏紧格局延续。本周FEI及CP价格延续上涨，FEI升贴水18.75，CP升贴水50，反映 出国际市场结构性支撑仍存。 3）内盘基本面持稳：供应端到港量本周低位，港口库存延续去化；化工需求端，PDH本周继续上行至 76.32%，但行业持续处于深度亏损状态，加之市场传闻部分PDH企业计划检修，关注实际检修情况。 我们认为，LPG价格多数时间跟随外盘丙烷及原油走势波动，但 ...

南华期货LPG产业周报 ——下游检修预期增加，盘面估值回落 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428） 研究助理：沈玮玮（期货从业证书：F03140197 ） 联系邮箱：shenweiwei@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月14日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响LPG价格走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1）成本端原油一方面受到供应过剩的压力，另一方面又受到地缘问题扰动，本周整体在基本面压力下震荡走 弱，但整体还在震荡区间内。 2）海外整体偏坚挺，美国需求回升，库存降低；中东发运依然处于偏低位。FEI升贴水37.25美元，CP升贴 水42美元。 3）内盘基本面小幅走弱。供应端到港量本周小幅增加，港口库存积累；化工需求端，PDH本周在巨正源及滨 华复产推动下开工上行，但市场网传了一些检修计划，叠加目前的亏损状态，需求预期走弱。 4）仓单量本周小幅增加，截至目前仓单量5476张，较上周增加865张。 我们认为PG大多时候跟随外盘丙烷及原油波动，但本周外盘相对持稳，原油端偏弱但整体仍在低位的震荡区 间，周尾的下跌更多还是受到内盘自身的影响。一 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The LPG market is expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern. The price of PG mostly follows the fluctuations of external propane and crude oil. In the short term, the external market is tight, but there is still supply pressure in the medium to long term. The domestic market is relatively stronger than the external market and crude oil, which is related to the low domestic arrivals and strong chemical demand. The near - term trading logic is supported by supply contraction and stable chemical demand, but the overall valuation is high. The long - term trading outlook is affected by supply and demand factors in different regions [2][3][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Cost - end crude oil is affected by supply surplus pressure and geopolitical issues, showing an overall oscillatory upward trend this week [2]. - The CP prices in December are in line with expectations, with propane at $495/ton (+20) and butane at $485/ton (+25) [2]. - US propane demand has improved significantly in the past two weeks, better than the same period last year, but the inventory reduction is not large [2]. - The domestic fundamentals are relatively stable, with low arrivals this week, matching the shipments from the Middle East and the US to China. Chemical demand remains strong in the short term, and the PDH operating rate is expected to be maintained at 70% - 75% [2]. - There are many purchase requests in the external market recently, with the FEI premium strengthening to $30 and the CP premium slightly dropping to $25 [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The market is expected to oscillate, with the PG01 price range at 4000 - 4500 [11]. - **Basis Strategy**: The basis is expected to oscillate. This week, the futures price declined with the overall chemical market, while the spot price rose slightly, leading to a stronger basis [11]. - **Calendar Spread Strategy**: Sell the spread when the spread is high [11]. - **Hedging Arbitrage Strategy**: Narrow the internal - external price spread, and wait and see on widening the PP/PG price ratio [11]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **LPG Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range of LPG is predicted to be 4000 - 4500, with the current 20 - day rolling volatility at 19.57% and the historical percentage of the current volatility in the past 3 years at 24.83% [13]. - **LPG Hedging Strategy**: For inventory management, when the inventory is high, short PG futures and sell call options. For procurement management, when the inventory is low, buy PG futures and sell put options [13]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The fundamentals remain relatively strong, with continuous low arrivals and inventory reduction at ports. The external market is tight, and the FEI premium has risen to $30 [18]. - **Negative Information**: From the perspectives of internal - external price spread and PG/PP price ratio, the overall valuation is still not cheap [15]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Monitor - The Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference will be held [16]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market** - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: The PG01 contract oscillated upward this week. The net positions of major profitable seats increased slightly, and there were no obvious changes in the top 5 long and short positions in the order book. The net short positions of a certain seat decreased slightly, while the net long positions of foreign capital increased slightly and those of retail investors decreased slightly. Technically, the PG01 is in an oscillatory state, with resistance at 4400 - 4500 and support at around 4250 on the daily - line middle track [19]. - **Basis and Calendar Spread Structure**: The LPG term structure remains in a BACK structure, with the 1 - 2 calendar spread at 79 yuan/ton (+3) [22]. - **External Market** - **Unilateral Trend**: FEI M1 closed at $524/ton (-13), with a premium of +30 dollars/ton; CP M1 closed at $504/ton (+3), with a premium of +25 dollars/ton; MB M1 closed at $375/ton (+19). The FEI swap declined slightly this week, but the premium strengthened, and the spot price remained stable. The MB price rose after the demand increased [26]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The FEI M1 - M2 spread was 13 dollars/ton (-6.75); the CP M1 - M2 spread was 0.5 dollars/ton (-0.5); the MB M1 - M2 spread was 6.19 dollars/ton (+2.93) [32]. - **Regional Spread Tracking**: This week, FEI was in an oscillatory state, while MB and CP were relatively strong. The FEI - MB and FEI - CP spreads narrowed slightly. In addition, the spread between FEI and MOPJ decreased, improving the economic efficiency of FEI [35]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - **Upstream Profit**: This week, the gross profit of major refineries was 593 yuan/ton (-28), and that of Shandong local refineries was 232 yuan/ton (+29). The profit fluctuations were not large [38]. - **Downstream Profit**: The PDH profit calculated by FEI was - 350 yuan/ton (+80); the PDH profit calculated by CP was - 505 yuan/ton (+47), and the PDH profit continued to be in a loss state. The MTBE gas - fractionation profit was - 62.50 yuan/ton (-5), and the isomerization profit was - 51 (+25). The alkylation oil profit was - 412 yuan/ton (+12), and the recent profit fluctuations were not large [41]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking This week, the external market price strengthened, while the domestic imported gas price oscillated relatively, leading to a weaker import profit [44]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 5.1 Overseas Supply and Demand - **US Supply and Demand** - **EIA Weekly Supply and Demand**: As the weather gets colder, the weekly demand has improved significantly in the past two weeks, but the production is generally high, and the inventory has decreased slightly [49]. - **KPLER Export Situation**: From January to November, the US exported a total of 62,703 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 3.09%. Among them, the exports to China were 9,693 kt, a year - on - year decrease of 40% [56]. - **Middle East Supply**: From January to November, the Middle East exported a total of 44,850 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 2.88%. Among them, the exports to India were 19,238 kt, a year - on - year decrease of 1.55%, and the exports to China were 16,833 kt, a year - on - year increase of 27%. In November, the domestic demand in the Middle East was strong, and the shipments were generally low [60]. - **India Supply and Demand**: From January to October, India's LPG demand totaled 30,101 kt, a year - on - year increase of 6.26%, and the LPG imports were 21,048 kt, a year - on - year increase of 7.49%. The second half of the year is the seasonal peak season in India, and the demand and imports remain high [63]. - **South Korea Supply and Demand**: The seasonality of South Korea's LPG demand is not obvious. Most of it is used for the chemical industry. From May to September, South Korea's LPG imports remained high. There was some re - export demand in May and June, and the propane cracking profit was better than that of naphtha from July to September, providing support for the cracking end. Currently, the propane cracking profit is still better than that of naphtha, and the imports are expected to remain relatively high. Some cracking maintenance has been extended to December, and the cracking cost - effectiveness of LPG has decreased. In November, South Korea's LPG imports increased slightly compared with October but remained at a relatively low level [70]. - **Japan Supply and Demand**: Japan is highly dependent on imported LPG, and the proportion of combustion demand is large, so the seasonality of demand and imports is obvious. As the weather gets colder, the imports are expected to increase. After restocking in August, the imports decreased in September, and the imports in August and September were neutral overall. The imports increased again in October. Normally, from November to February of the next year, the average monthly import volume is about 1,000 kt [78]. 5.2 Domestic Supply and Demand - **Domestic Supply - Demand Balance**: In the case of high refinery profits, the domestic LPG production is expected to remain high, but the overall external supply volume is not high. The import volume is not high according to the shipping data. Based on profit and seasonality, chemical demand decreases, and combustion demand increases. The overall chemical demand in the fourth quarter is better than expected. The overall inventory has decreased slightly, mainly at the port [82]. - **Domestic Supply**: The operating rate of major refineries is 74.66% (-0.88%); the operating rate of independent refineries is 56.11% (+1.12%), and the utilization rate excluding large - scale refineries is 52.20% (+1.25%). The domestic LPG external sales volume is 51.72 tons (+0.18). The port arrivals this week are 55.8 (-10.2), the factory inventory is 15.74 tons (-0.12), and the port inventory is 274.59 tons (-20.79) [85]. - **Domestic Demand** - **PDH Demand**: Juzhengyuan is restarting. This week, Hebei Xinxinyuan, Ningbo Haode, and Bengu New Materials are still under maintenance. The internal - external price spread has narrowed [95][97]. - **MTBE Demand**: No specific new demand information is provided, but relevant seasonal data on the operating rate and price spread are presented [98]. - **Alkylation Oil Demand**: Puyang Shengyuan has resumed production, and Shandong Linfeng is still under maintenance [103]. - **Combustion Demand**: Seasonal data on the production - sales ratio in different regions are presented [108].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The domestic LPG market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillating trend. International LPG prices are weak, with a significant increase in warehouse receipts suppressing the market. Although domestic chemical demand is increasing, weak combustion demand restricts upward movement [1]. Summary by Relevant Content Price and Market Data - On Monday, the cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4413 yuan/ton. FEI and CP prices dropped, PP prices declined sharply, and the production profit of FEI and CP for PP worsened, with CP having a lower production cost than FEI. The PG market weakened, with the 08 - 09 spread at - 7 and the 08 - 10 spread at - 411. The US - to - Far East arbitrage window closed [1]. - The PG market oscillated. The basis weakened to 370 (-63), and the inter - month reverse spread continued to strengthen. Warehouse receipt registrations reached 9804 lots (+1000), with Qingdao Yunda adding 1000 lots. External market prices continued to weaken, and the oil - gas ratio declined [1]. Regional and Spread Data - In terms of regional spreads, PG - CP reached 43 (+18), FEI - MB was 155 (-6), FEI - CP was 4.5 (+4.5), and the US - Asia arbitrage window closed. FEI propane discount continued to fall, and the CP arrival discount oscillated. FEI - MOPJ changed little, at - 47.5 (-3.75) [1]. Profit and Demand Data - PDH profit improved, while MTBE export profit declined. The arrival volume decreased significantly. Chemical demand was strong; PDH operating rate increased significantly to 73.13% (+2.01 pct), and next week, Liaoning Jinfa plans to resume operation. Alkylation operating rate increased, and Henan Chengxin's alkylation unit has a restart plan. MTBE operating load increased, with manufacturers focusing on exports and overall stable operation. Combustion demand was weak [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - PG futures prices have been oscillating downward. Although the chemical demand outlook is relatively strong, the decline in oil prices and the weakening of international LPG prices have led to a weaker futures market. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4486. The basis has strengthened to 433 (+93). The inter - month reverse arbitrage has strengthened due to weak spot prices and the shift of the main contract. The number of registered warrants is 8804 lots (+500), with 500 lots added by Qingdao Yunda. The external market prices have continued to weaken, and the oil - gas ratio has increased. [1] - Despite the strong chemical demand expectations, under the suppression of weak combustion demand, the domestic LPG market is expected to continue the narrow - range oscillating trend. [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Data Summary - On July 18, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, and Shandong LPG were 4530, 4486, and 4610 respectively. The propane CFR South China was 553, propane CIF Japan was 505, MB propane spot was 71, and CP forecast contract price was 538. The price of Shandong ether - after carbon four was 4890, and Shandong alkylated oil was 8000. The daily changes were - 40, 0, 20, - 2, - 2, 1, - 8, 40, 80 respectively. The PG futures price decreased, the monthly spread declined, and the 08 - 09 spread was 63. The US - Far East arbitrage window opened. [1] Weekly View Summary - **Market Trend**: The PG futures market oscillated downward. The domestic LPG market is expected to continue the narrow - range oscillation due to weak combustion demand, despite strong chemical demand expectations. [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis strengthened to 433 (+93), and the inter - month reverse arbitrage strengthened. The number of registered warrants increased to 8804 lots (+500). [1] - **External Market**: The external market prices continued to weaken, and the oil - gas ratio increased. The regional spreads such as PG - CP, FEI - MB, FEI - CP, and FEI - MOPJ changed, and the US - Asia arbitrage window opened. [1] - **Profit Situation**: The PDH profit improved, while the MTBE export profit declined. [1] - **Inventory and Supply**: Port inventories increased significantly, and factory inventories increased slightly. The commodity volume decreased by 0.98% due to reduced supply in South China, increased self - use in Shandong, and limited supply in East China. [1] - **Chemical Demand**: Chemical demand is strong. The PDH operating rate increased significantly to 71.78% (+10.91pct), and the alkylation operating rate increased. MTBE export orders increased. [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core Viewpoints - The cheapest deliverable is Shandong civil gas at 4580. PP prices fluctuate, FEI and CP prices decline, CP discount remains unchanged, PDH production profit improves, and FEI production cost is higher than CP. The PG futures market weakens, the monthly spread changes little, and the 08 - 09 spread is 95. The US - Far East arbitrage window closes [1]. - Civil gas prices rise first and then fall. Geopolitical tensions at the beginning of the week lead to a bullish market, but overall supply is abundant, high prices are resisted by downstream, and the easing of the Middle - East situation causes a sharp drop in oil prices, pressuring the market later in the week. The PG futures market falls sharply, the basis strengthens to 345, and the monthly spread changes little. External market prices weaken significantly, and the oil - gas ratio first suppresses and then rises. The internal - external price difference drops significantly, PG - CP weakens to - 4 (-33), FEI - CP weakens significantly, and the US - Asia arbitrage window closes. Import prices drop significantly, AFEI propane discount drops slightly, and CP propane - butane discount drops significantly. PDH spot production profit improves, paper - based production profit rises, FEI is lower than CP; alkylation oil profit rises significantly; MTBE gas - fractionation etherification profit is basically flat, isomerization etherification profit increases; FEI - MOPJ moves up [1]. - Fundamentally, increased arrivals lead to port inventory accumulation; factory inventory accumulates slightly with regional differentiation, East China destocks, and South China and Shandong accumulate inventory; external sales increase; PDH operating rate rises to 70.54% (+4.33 pct), alkylation operating rate is 46.02% (-1.84 pct), and MTBE production remains basically flat. The number of registered warrants is 8358 lots (+0). Next week, PDH and alkylation operating rates are expected to rise slightly, combustion demand remains weak, low prices stimulate sales, and subsequent prices will generally stabilize [1]. 3) Summaries by Related Catalogs Price Data - From June 24 - 30, 2025, prices of South China LPG, Shandong LPG, Shandong ether - post C4, and other related products change. For example, South China LPG prices range from 4710 - 4755, Shandong LPG prices range from 4599 - 4667 [1]. Market Conditions - Futures market: The PG futures market weakens, and the monthly spread changes little [1]. - External market: FEI and CP prices decline, and the US - Far East and US - Asia arbitrage windows close [1]. - Spot market: Civil gas prices show a trend of rising first and then falling [1]. Profit and Cost - PDH production profit improves, and FEI production cost is higher than CP. PDH spot production profit improves, and paper - based production profit rises [1]. Inventory and Production - Port inventory accumulates due to increased arrivals, factory inventory accumulates slightly with regional differentiation. PDH operating rate rises to 70.54% (+4.33 pct), and alkylation operating rate is 46.02% (-1.84 pct) [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply increase is expected, while the expected increase in chemical demand provides some support. Shandong is expected to be boosted, and East and South China markets are more likely to fluctuate. Geopolitical tensions have significantly escalated, with the US attacking three Iranian nuclear facilities, which is expected to have a significant impact on market sentiment, so cautious operation is recommended [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Data Price and Margin Data - From June 20 - 26, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, Shandong LPG, and other products fluctuated. For example, South China LPG prices ranged from 4660 to 4755. There were also changes in propane CFR prices, MB propane prices, etc. PDH production profit improved, with FEI production cost higher than CP. The daily change on June 26 showed 0 for South China LPG, -25 for Shandong LPG, etc. [1] Market Structure Data - The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4642. The PG futures price increased, with the 07 - 09 spread dropping 3 to 107. The US - Far East arbitrage window is closed. The 07 contract basis weakened to 80 (-141), and the monthly spreads (07 - 08, 07 - 09) changed significantly [1]. International Market Data - Outer - market prices continued to strengthen, and the oil - gas ratio increased. Regional spreads showed different trends: internal - external spreads strengthened, FEI - MB strengthened slightly, while FEI - CP and MB - CP weakened. The AFEI propane FOB discount weakened slightly to 2.25, and the CP CIF discount dropped significantly to 12 dollars. Freight rates increased slightly [1]. Downstream Profit Data - PDH spot profit improved due to rising拉丝 prices. FEI's profit from producing PP decreased, while CP's production profit increased. Alkylation and MTBE profits decreased, and the FEI - MOPJ spread shifted downward [1]. Fundamental Data - Due to delayed arrivals and a slight increase in chemical demand, port inventories and storage ratios decreased, while factory inventories remained basically flat, and external releases were also basically unchanged. Chemical demand was supported, with PDH and MTBE operating rates increasing and alkylation remaining basically flat. Multiple PDH plants are expected to increase their loads in the future [1]. Warehouse Receipt Data - The number of registered warehouse receipts was 8358 lots (-647), mainly due to Jinneng Chemical reducing by 270 and Shanghai Yuchi reducing by 377 [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The civil gas price first rose and then fell due to continuous disruptions in international supply, sufficient domestic supply, and weak demand. The PG futures price strengthened significantly unilaterally due to geopolitical shocks, with the basis of the 07 contract weakening and the monthly spread weakening significantly. Outer - market prices continued to strengthen, and the oil - gas ratio increased. [1] - Geopolitical tensions have significantly escalated with the US attacking three Iranian nuclear facilities, which is expected to have a large impact on the sentiment side, so cautious operation is recommended. [1] - In terms of fundamentals, port arrivals are delayed, chemical demand has slightly increased, port inventories and storage capacity ratios have decreased, factory inventories are basically flat, and external sales are basically unchanged. Chemical demand is supported, with the operating rates of PDH and MTBE increasing and that of alkylation basically unchanged. [1] - Under the expectation of increased supply, the expected increase in chemical demand provides some support, with Shandong expected to be boosted and East and South China more likely to fluctuate. [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily Data - From June 19 to June 25, 2025, the prices of liquefied gas in South China, East China, and Shandong, as well as related prices such as propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, etc., showed different trends. For example, on June 25, the South China liquefied gas price was 4755, the East China liquefied gas price was 4667, and the Shandong liquefied gas price was 4750. The daily change in the Shandong liquefied gas price was - 60, and the daily change in the propane CIF Japan price was - 18. [1] - The 09 - month spread increased by 11 to 110. The US to Far - East arbitrage window is closed. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4667. PP prices rose slightly, FEI and CP prices recovered, PDH production profits improved, and the FEI production cost is higher than that of CP. The PG futures price declined, and the basis of the 07 contract is affected. [1] Weekly Viewpoints - Civil gas prices first rose and then fell. The current cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4657. The CFR prices of propane and butane in East and South China are basically the same. The PG futures price strengthened significantly unilaterally due to geopolitical shocks, with the 07 contract basis weakening to 80 (- 141), and the monthly spread weakening significantly (07 - 08 is 10, 07 - 09 is 195). Outer - market prices continued to strengthen, and the oil - gas ratio increased. [1] - In terms of regional spreads, the internal - external spread continued to strengthen, the FEI - MB spread strengthened slightly, while the FEI - CP and MB - CP spreads weakened. The US - Asia arbitrage window is closed. The AFEI propane FOB discount weakened slightly to 2.25, and the CP CIF discount dropped significantly to 12 dollars. Freight rates increased slightly. [1] - In terms of downstream profits, PDH spot profits improved due to the increase in drawing prices; the profit of producing PP with FEI decreased, while the profit of producing with CP increased; the profits of alkylation and MTBE decreased; the FEI - MOPJ spread decreased. [1] - Geopolitical tensions have significantly escalated, and it is expected to have a large impact on the sentiment side. [1] - In terms of fundamentals, port arrivals are delayed, chemical demand has slightly increased, port inventories and storage capacity ratios have decreased, factory inventories are basically flat, and external sales are basically unchanged. Chemical demand is supported, with the operating rates of PDH and MTBE increasing and that of alkylation basically unchanged. Multiple PDH factories are expected to increase their loads in the future, driving up the PDH operating rate. [1] - The number of registered warehouse receipts is 8358 lots (- 647), mainly due to a decrease of 270 in Jinneng Chemical and 377 in Shanghai Yuchi. [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the context of expected supply increase, the anticipated rise in chemical demand provides some support. It is expected that Shandong will see an improvement, while East and South China markets will be more volatile. Geopolitical tensions have significantly escalated, with the US attacking three Iranian nuclear facilities, which is expected to have a major impact on market sentiment, so cautious operation is recommended [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price and Margin Changes - From June 1 to June 23, prices of products such as propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, and MB propane fluctuated. For example, the price of South China LPG decreased from 4690 on June 1 to 4660 on June 20, then rose to 4695 on June 23. The price of SD alkylated oil increased from 7800 on June 1 to 8300 on June 23 [1]. - The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas, with a price of 4623. PP prices rose, PDH production margins improved, and FEI production costs were higher than CP. The PG futures price declined, and the spread between the July and September contracts increased by 2 to 99 [1]. 3.2 Market and Spread Analysis - The US to Far - East arbitrage window is closed. The PG futures price strengthened unilaterally, mainly due to geopolitical shocks. The basis of the July contract weakened to 80 (-141), and the spreads between different contracts changed significantly, with the July - August spread at 10 and the July - September spread at 195 [1]. - Outer - market prices continued to strengthen, and the oil - gas ratio increased. Regional spreads showed different trends: the internal - external spread strengthened, FEI - MB strengthened slightly, while FEI - CP and MB - CP weakened. The AFEI propane FOB discount weakened slightly to 2.25, and the CP CIF discount dropped significantly to 12 dollars. Freight rates increased slightly [1]. 3.3 Downstream Profit and Demand - Downstream profit situations varied. PDH spot margins improved due to rising wire drawing prices, FEI production margins for PP decreased, CP production margins increased, alkylation and MTBE margins decreased, and the FEI - MOPJ spread shifted downward [1]. - In terms of fundamentals, port arrivals were delayed, chemical demand increased slightly, port inventories and storage ratios decreased, factory inventories remained basically flat, and external sales were basically unchanged. Chemical demand was supported, with increased PDH and MTBE operating rates and stable alkylation operating rates. Multiple PDH plants are expected to increase their loads in the future, driving up the PDH operating rate [1]. 3.4 Warehouse Receipts - The number of registered warehouse receipts was 8358 lots (-647), mainly due to a decrease of 270 in Jinneng Chemical and a decrease of 377 in Shanghai Yuchi [1].