Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive rebound of Chinese concept stocks in the US market during the New Year period, driven by signs of domestic consumption recovery and optimism about China's consumer market in 2026 [1][3][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - Public QDII funds heavily invested in Chinese concept stocks saw a significant rebound, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 4.36% on the first trading day of 2026 [3]. - Individual stocks such as Baidu surged over 15%, while other notable gains included 9.8% for Global Data, 5% for Manbang, 6% for iQIYI, and 2% for Pinduoduo, indicating strong performance across the board for internet and consumer leaders [3]. - The rebound reflects a shift in market sentiment towards consumer stocks, as previously favored tech stocks experienced adjustments during the holiday period [3]. Group 2: Investment Outlook - As the investment horizon shifts to 2026, leading stocks like Alibaba, Bilibili, and NetEase are showing strong upward momentum, suggesting global capital's optimistic outlook on China's consumption recovery [2][6]. - Fund managers are increasingly focusing on structural opportunities within the consumer sector, with many conducting research on companies that are adapting to new consumption trends [5]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Drivers - Multiple fund companies anticipate that government policies aimed at boosting consumption will play a crucial role in 2026, with expectations for increased fiscal spending and support for service consumption [6][7]. - The article notes that the "reward economy," "first release economy," and "silver economy" are emerging consumption trends that could catalyze growth and value re-evaluation for related companies [7]. Group 4: Performance of Consumer Funds - Consumer-focused funds have demonstrated strong performance, with the Southern Hong Kong Growth Flexible Fund achieving approximately 48% returns over the past year and 87% over two years, outperforming many volatile tech-focused funds [5]. - The article emphasizes the long-term attractiveness of the consumer sector, as evidenced by the performance of funds that prioritize quality and strategic stock selection [5].

围绕2026年文娱行业，《新声Pro》梳理出了21个关键词，涵盖长内容、PUGC、短剧、线 下等多个领域，其中既有用户和社会情绪洞察，也包含AI等新技术可能产生的变化，以及 变化之下平台维度的版图变化。 我们正处在变化的前夜，这个感觉在2025一整年的工作中变得越来越明确。 如果我们以抖音的上线作为节点，10年足够养成在内容消费和创作上都有独特代际色彩的「抖音一 代」。事实上，在过去一年无论是以二次元为代表的年轻文化的再次兴起，还是在短视频、音乐等领域 不断涌现的年轻创作者，都印证了新一代内容消费者已经走到舞台中央，成为当下内容消费和创作的主 力。 与此同时，以AI作为驱动，新的生产力革命正在内容上游酝酿，并来到爆发节点，它不仅意味着产能 的爆发，还将带来创作者思维和工作模式的全面革新，内容制作能力的普惠将改变IP的运营路径，也大 概率会重塑下游平台格局。 围绕2026年文娱行业，《新声Pro》梳理出了21个关键词，涵盖长内容、PUGC、短剧、潮玩、线下等 多个领域，其中既有用户和社会情绪洞察，也包含AI等新技术可能产生的变化，以及变化之下平台维 度的版图变化。我们选择以关键词形式呈现趋势，旨在为发生中的变化 ...

IVATE #20 #11 TV I 2005 3 13 3 2025年前11月,消费品以旧换新已 带动相关商品销售额超2.5万亿元, 惠及超3.6亿人次。 汽车、家电等大宗消费焕新提速, 3000 亿元超长期特别国债精准释放 内需潜力。 ● 网上消费 线上服务 SF 2025年前11日. 全国网上零售额同 比增长9.1%,线上服务消费增幅达 21.7%0 数字消费与线上服务成为拉动内需的 重要动力。 覆盖养老服务、健康养生、文旅娱乐 等多元场景,新老人群体引领品质消 费升级。 1 - f Basis = E P F AIII " " 4 T 0 2025年前三季度，国内居民出游人次 49.98亿,同比增18.0%,花费为4.85 万亿元，同比增11.5%。 旅游消费成为大力提振消费的重点领 域和主要力量。 日日 a = AI CHANG! Tiaoqilar 《2025银发经济白皮书》预测，今年 银发经济市场规模高达15.8万亿元。 2025年,赛事经济成为经济增长的重 要引擎,多地监测的重点赛事活动直 接带动消费呈现爆发式增长。 如爆火的"苏超"带动全域多场景消 费超380亿元，展现出强大的消费拉 动能力 ...

整理 ｜ 李小霞 #Big News# 传拉夫劳伦高管或担任lululemon CEO 自lululemon上周宣布现任 CEO Calvin McDonald将于2026年1月底卸任，董事会已启动继任者遴 选程序以来，谁会成为 lululemon新的掌门人备受关注。 据外媒报道，有着"华尔街猎手"之称的知名激进投资基金Elliott Investment Management已大举建 仓lululemon，持股市值超过 10 亿美元，并开始深度介入公司治理。 据知情人士透露，Elliott正向lululemon推荐潜在的首席执行官人选，其看好的候选人为零售行业资深 高管Jane Nielsen，后者曾担任拉夫劳伦首席财务官兼首席运营官，在品牌运营与成本管理方面拥有 丰富经验。 此前，Elliott还推动了星巴克CEO的换帅，及后续的星巴克中国业务卖身等战略。Elliott的到来，被 市场视为 lululemon可能迎来战略调整的重要信号。 根据lululemon2025财年第三季度财报。在第三季度，公司全球净营收同比增长7%至26亿美元,美洲 区营收下降 2%，国际业务净营收同比增长33%。 Calvin ...

这到底是为什么？国人终于要开始为自己消费了？ 曾经被视为顶流主播梦工场的杭州丽晶国际，最近传出的画面令人唏嘘。那里不再是彻夜灯火通明的带 货战场，取而代之的是走廊里贴满的红色降价招租条，以及堆积如山、无人认领的废弃快递箱。 根据有关数据统计，国内无孩家庭占比现在竟然过半了，这是历史上首次！社会中的过半家庭选择不生 育子女，这一变化不仅改写了传统家庭模式，更催生了全新的消费浪潮，越来越多中国人把开支从"养 娃成本"转向自我提升与生活品质，掀起了"为自己消费"的新趋势。 [熊猫]本来现在年轻人的生育观和婚姻观和老辈子的观念就不一样，现在中国的家庭模式也发生了翻天 覆地的变化。 那个巅峰时期容纳了近两万名网红的庞然大物，如今连"免押金月付"的低门槛都难以吸引到新的租客。 这种物理空间的冷清，不仅是一个网红地标的衰落，它也标志着那个单纯靠流量吆喝、靠低价走量的时 代正在急速退潮。 这一幕的背后，并非仅仅是经济周期的起伏，而是一场更为深层的、关于"人"的社会结构重塑。2025年 的中国消费图景，正在经历一场静悄悄却惊心动魄的革命。而这场革命的核心，不在于技术的迭代，在 于中国人花钱的逻辑变了，因为中国人生活的单元变了。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the robust performance of the Chinese economy, with major economic indicators showing positive trends and a strong recovery momentum [1][2] - International financial institutions, including the IMF, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs, have raised their growth forecasts for China, indicating its resilience amid global economic adjustments [1][2] - The "Three New" economy, focusing on new industries, new business formats, and new models, accounted for 18.01% of China's GDP in 2024, reflecting a 0.43 percentage point increase from the previous year [2] Group 2 - The Chinese government is committed to high-level opening-up policies, which are crucial for foreign investment, especially from American companies [3] - China is enhancing its business environment through measures such as the "Foreign Investment 24 Articles" and "Stable Foreign Investment 20 Articles," promoting a market-oriented and law-based approach [3] - The country aims to leverage its development opportunities and advantages to maintain economic growth and provide broader market and investment opportunities for the world [3]

Economic Growth - In the first half of the year, China's GDP reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [3] - The GDP growth rate was 5.4% in Q1 and 5.2% in Q2 [3] Foreign Trade - China's total import and export value of goods in the first half of the year was 21.79 trillion yuan, a historical high, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [3] - Exports grew by 7.2%, with the export scale surpassing 13 trillion yuan for the first time in history [3] - Exports to the US decreased by 9.3% year-on-year, while exports to emerging markets like ASEAN, Central Asia, and Africa saw double-digit growth [3][5] Domestic Demand and Consumption - Domestic demand contributed 68.8% to economic growth, with retail sales of consumer goods exceeding 24 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year [7] - Service consumption grew by 5.3%, indicating a significant increase in the service sector's contribution to overall consumption [7][9] High-Tech Manufacturing - The added value of high-tech manufacturing increased by 9.5%, outpacing the overall industrial growth by 3.1 percentage points [13] - The robot industry is highlighted, with China maintaining the largest market for industrial robots globally [13] New Consumption Trends - Emotional consumption is on the rise, with significant growth in related sectors during events like "618" [11] - The "old-for-new" policy has driven sales exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan, promoting consumption upgrades and industrial transformation [11] Policy and Future Outlook - The government is focused on expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption as key tasks for economic recovery [7][15] - The resilience of China's economy is attributed to diversified markets and strong manufacturing capabilities, with a commitment to high-quality development [15]

Core Insights - The article highlights a shift in consumer behavior among young people in China, characterized by a blend of "refined poverty" and "emotional wealth," where individuals are willing to spend significantly on experiences while being frugal on everyday purchases [1] - The concept of "self-pleasure consumption" is gaining traction, with 46.28% of young consumers prioritizing personal enjoyment in their spending habits [1] - The article invites content creators to share their observations on new consumption trends and the evolution of consumer behavior leading into 2025 [1] Group 1: Changes in Consumer Behavior - Young consumers are increasingly willing to spend on emotional value rather than just price, indicating a shift from "cost-effectiveness" to "emotional value" [2] - Small purchases, such as coffee and collectibles, are being made to enhance happiness, reflecting a trend towards seeking joy in everyday spending [2] - The rise of "micro-vacations" suggests a new necessity for escapism, indicating a change in how leisure is perceived and consumed [2] Group 2: New Consumption Categories and Scenarios - The article discusses the emergence of new consumption categories, such as health-focused beverages, which are defining contemporary youth culture [3] - There is a notable shift in consumption scenarios, moving from indoor fitness to outdoor activities like cycling and camping, showcasing a broader lifestyle change [3] - The role of technology, including AI and big data, in influencing purchasing decisions is examined, questioning whether it leads to increased spending or more precise buying [3]

Group 1 - The focus of brokerage strategies this week is on the crowdedness of small-cap stocks and the calendar effect in June [1][6] - Historical data shows that the performance of major dividend assets in June is significantly weaker, with the probability of outperforming the CSI 300 and Wind All A being only 25% and 12.5% respectively, and the probability of an increase at only 37.5%, which is a noticeable decline compared to May [1][2] - The negative calendar effect in June for dividend assets may be related to the concentrated dividend payouts during this period, leading some funds to cash out before and after the dividend dates [1][3] Group 2 - The technology growth sector is expected to become the market's main focus in June, as it has reached a more favorable valuation range after adjustments [3][9] - The crowdedness in various technology sub-sectors has decreased to a relatively low level, with TMT's rolling 40-day return difference recently rebounding from a -10% historical low, although it remains at a historically low level [3][9] - The trading volume of TMT has dropped to around 22%-23%, which is lower than the levels seen during most adjustments in 2023 and 2024 [3][9] Group 3 - The small-cap index has seen increased volatility since reaching a high crowdedness state with a trading volume share of 30% in 2023, indicating potential risks from market sentiment shifts and policy statements [6][9] - Recent data shows that the enthusiasm for small-cap stocks has decreased, with a notable decline in the speed of capital inflow and a drop in new A-share account openings compared to the previous year [6][7] - The market is expected to continue a range-bound consolidation pattern, with small-cap styles potentially facing a phase of adjustment [9][10]

Core Insights - The opening of HOKA's global flagship experience center in Shanghai marks a significant moment for the city's first-store economy, showcasing a blend of international brands and local innovation [2][5][6] - Shanghai has attracted over 7,300 first stores since 2018, with a notable increase in high-level stores, indicating strong market appeal for top brands [5][7] - The city's first-store economy is driven by a combination of openness and institutional innovation, with significant investments from international brands [7][10] First-Store Economy - Shanghai's first-store economy is a key strategy for enhancing its status as an international consumption center, with 1,269 new first stores added last year, a 4.5% increase from the previous year [5] - In the first quarter of 2025, Shanghai added 173 new first stores, including 7 global and Asian first stores, reflecting a growing trend in high-level store openings [5][6] - The presence of major international brands, such as LOEWE and BOSS, alongside local brands like Taiping Bird, highlights the competitive landscape of Shanghai's retail market [6][8] International and Local Brand Synergy - The synergy between international brands and local enterprises is evident, with new flagship stores and innovative concepts attracting diverse consumer demographics [6][8] - HOKA's experience center aims to cater not only to domestic consumers but also to the over 6 million international visitors to Shanghai each year, emphasizing the city's global appeal [8][13] Economic and Policy Support - Shanghai's economic growth is supported by favorable policies and a robust business environment, with the city aiming to enhance its attractiveness for high-level first stores through financial incentives [10] - The city's port trade is projected to reach 11.07 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 3.9% growth and maintaining its position as a leading global city [7][10] Consumer Trends and Impact - The first-store economy has revitalized Shanghai's commercial landscape, meeting diverse consumer needs and driving new consumption dynamics [10][11] - Data indicates a significant increase in tax refund sales for international visitors, with a year-on-year growth of 81% in sales and 77% in refund amounts from January to April 2025 [11][13]