丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨中国海防（600764.SH） [Table_Title] 营收短期波动，盈利能力稳定 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025Q1-3 实现营收 19.25 亿，yoy+2.8%；归母净利润 1.54 亿，yoy+3.43%；扣非归母净利润 1.17 亿，yoy+5.76%。2025Q3 实现营收 5.39 亿，yoy-24.49%，qoq-38.26%；归母净利润 0.6 亿，yoy-19.12%，qoq-5.81%；扣非归母净利润 0.33 亿，yoy-40.08%，qoq-39.94%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王贺嘉 张晨晨 SAC：S0490520110004 SAC：S0490524080007 SFC：BUX462 $${\mathrm{iii}}\{8\}{\mathrm{iii}}\{8\}{\mathrm{iii}}\{8\}{\mathrm{iii}}\{8\}{\mathrm{iii}}\{8\}{\mathrm{iii}}\{8\}$$ %% %% 1 [Table_scode ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 801 million in Q1-3 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 8.63%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 243 million, showing a year-over-year decline of 21.48% [2][4]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 285 million, which is a year-over-year increase of 12.85% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 3.68%. The net profit for Q3 was 97 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.73% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 17.32% [2][4]. - The company has seen improvements in both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter performance across various subsidiaries, with significant revenue growth in specific segments [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-3 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 47.69%, down 6.92 percentage points year-over-year. The gross margin for Q3 was 47.9%, down 3.52 percentage points year-over-year and down 5.62 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [10]. - The company’s expense ratio for Q1-3 2025 was 24.63%, an increase of 6.84 percentage points year-over-year, with R&D expenses accounting for 13.11% of revenue, up 5.26 percentage points year-over-year [10]. - The net profit margin for Q1-3 2025 was 27.03%, down 12.53 percentage points year-over-year [10]. Business Development - The company has a strong order backlog, with new contracts signed totaling 362 million in Q1-3 2025. This includes significant contracts with a total value of 402 million announced in September [10]. - The company is actively expanding production capacity, with fixed assets increasing by 25.49% and inventory rising by 56.52% compared to the beginning of the year [10]. Subsidiary Performance - The subsidiary Huayin Hangfa reported a revenue of 103 million, with a year-over-year increase of 142.95% and new orders of 244 million in Q1-3 [10]. - Huayin Guangsheng achieved a revenue of 9.85 million, with a year-over-year increase of 184.92% and new orders of 37 million [10]. - Ruihua Sheng reported a revenue of 10 million, with a year-over-year increase of 1825.28% and new orders of 50 million [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.761 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-over-year decrease of 1.56%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 806 million, down 11.59% year-over-year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 799 million, a decrease of 11.09% year-over-year. In Q3 2025, the revenue was 1.014 billion, a year-over-year increase of 20.41% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 24.67%. The net profit for Q3 was 201 million, down 34.74% year-over-year and 18.59% quarter-over-quarter [2][5][12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.761 billion, with the aerospace new materials business contributing 3.713 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 1.55%. The equipment business generated 44 million, down 3.86% year-over-year. The Q3 revenue was 1.014 billion, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 20.41% but a quarter-over-quarter decline of 24.67% due to changes in product delivery structure and customer demand [12] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 38.24%, a decrease of 0.28 percentage points year-over-year. The expense ratio was 11.28%, an increase of 1.97 percentage points year-over-year, with R&D expense ratio at 4%, up 1.37 percentage points year-over-year. The net profit margin was 21.62%, down 2.5 percentage points year-over-year. In Q3 2025, the gross margin was 39.47%, a year-over-year decrease of 1.6 percentage points but an increase of 5.23 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [12] Future Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to the parent company of 1.190 billion, 1.365 billion, and 1.578 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios based on the current market capitalization of 31.6 billion are projected to be 27, 23, and 20 times. Despite the short-term fluctuations in revenue and profit in Q3, the company's strong industry position and growth potential in large aircraft and commercial aircraft sectors during the 14th Five-Year Plan period provide significant valuation advantages [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.385 billion in H1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 19.64%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 95 million, up 25.48% year-over-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 83 million, reflecting a 52.58% increase year-over-year [2][4]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 874 million, which is a 9.3% year-over-year growth. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 11.45% year-over-year to 63 million, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items remained relatively stable with a slight increase of 0.12% year-over-year to 56 million [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's revenue from underwater acoustic electronics was 420 million, showing a year-over-year growth of 30.68%. The special electronic business generated 205 million, down 2.12% year-over-year. The non-defense sector revenue reached 736 million, up 22.07% year-over-year, with significant projects in smart cities, rail transit, and oil and gas [10]. - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 35.32%, a decrease of 1.14 percentage points year-over-year. The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 35.31%, an increase of 1.92 percentage points year-over-year. The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 7.35%, slightly up by 0.04 percentage points year-over-year [10]. Capacity Expansion - The company is accelerating capacity construction to meet the demand for military and civilian marine equipment. As of the end of H1 2025, the contract liabilities amounted to 165 million, a 12.31% increase from the beginning of the period. The balance of construction in progress was 377 million, up 9.29% from the beginning of the period [10]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 290 million, 380 million, and 510 million, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are 86, 64, and 48 times. The company holds a strong position in the underwater acoustic electronics sector, and the current valuation is considered attractive [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.747 billion in H1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 7.87%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 605 million, with a year-over-year increase of 0.24% [2][6] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.346 billion, which is a year-over-year increase of 9.47% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 3.95%. The net profit for Q2 was 247 million, showing a year-over-year decrease of 2.12% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 30.91% [2][6] - The company is on track to meet its annual operational goals, with H1 2025 revenue accounting for 47.37% of the annual target and total profit reaching 53.27% of the annual goal [13] - The gross margin showed a slight increase, with H1 2025 gross margin at 37.79%, up 0.54 percentage points year-over-year [13] - The company is accelerating capacity construction to support business expansion in civil aviation and commercial aircraft sectors [13] - Profit forecasts for the company indicate net profits of 1.235 billion, 1.410 billion, and 1.634 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 28, 25, and 21 [13] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - H1 2025 revenue was 2.747 billion, up 7.87% year-over-year, with a net profit of 605 million, up 0.24% year-over-year [2][6] - Q2 2025 revenue was 1.346 billion, up 9.47% year-over-year, but down 3.95% quarter-over-quarter, with a net profit of 247 million, down 2.12% year-over-year and down 30.91% quarter-over-quarter [2][6] Business Segments - The aerospace industrial composite materials segment generated 2.627 billion in revenue, up 9.41% year-over-year, while the advanced manufacturing segment saw a revenue increase of 83.37% year-over-year [13] Capacity and Investment - The company had 153 million in construction in progress at the end of H1 2025, a 44.22% increase from the beginning of the period, with several projects nearing completion [13] Profitability and Margins - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 was 37.79%, with a slight increase year-over-year, while the net profit margin was affected by credit impairment losses [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company reported a stable revenue growth with a 6.44% year-on-year increase in H1 2025, achieving a revenue of 516 million [2][6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 32.45% year-on-year to 146 million, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items fell by 36.97% to 130 million [2][6] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 275 million, representing a 15.74% year-on-year growth and a 13.88% quarter-on-quarter increase [2][6] Financial Performance Summary - H1 2025 revenue breakdown: - Parent company revenue: 450 million, net profit: 158 million [12] - Q2 2025 parent company revenue: 243 million, year-on-year growth of 6.69% [12] - Subsidiary performance: - Shenyang Huqin: Revenue of 72 million, net loss of 1.4 million - Nanjing Huqin: Revenue of 7.79 million, net loss of 0.688 million - Shanghai Ruihuasheng: Net loss of 14 million - Anhui Hanzheng: Revenue of 0.24 million, net loss of 0.108 million [12] - Gross margin for H1 2025 was 47.57%, a decrease of 8.7 percentage points year-on-year [12] - R&D expense ratio increased to 13.61%, up 6.81 percentage points year-on-year [12] Inventory and Demand Indicators - Inventory at the end of H1 2025 was 321 million, an increase of 46.16% from the beginning of the period [12] - Accounts receivable and notes balance increased by 18.77% to 1.006 billion [12] - Contract liabilities grew by 64.04% to 33 million, indicating a potential recovery in downstream demand [12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Insights - The role of drones in modern warfare has rapidly increased, highlighting the urgent need for counter-drone systems to address the challenges posed by low, small, and slow targets [6][24] - Ukraine's use of FPV drones in June 2025 resulted in significant damage to Russian strategic bombers, demonstrating the high cost-effectiveness and flexibility of drones in warfare [3][24] - The counter-drone systems utilize various detection methods such as radar, electro-optical, and radio detection, and employ high-energy lasers and microwave technologies for effective low-cost countermeasures [7][43] Summary by Sections Drone Warfare and Countermeasures - The conflict in Ukraine has shown that small drones can achieve high damage ratios, necessitating the development of counter-drone systems [6][36] - Ukraine's strategic drone strikes in June 2025 targeted multiple Russian bomber bases, destroying over 40 bombers, which is 34% of Russia's strategic bomber fleet [3][24] - The characteristics of small drones make traditional air defense systems ineffective, thus counter-drone systems are becoming essential in modern warfare [43][56] Global Development of Counter-Drone Systems - Various countries are developing counter-drone systems, with the US and Israel leading in technology and system quantity [8][67] - The market for counter-drone systems is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 24.7% from 2024 to 2031, reaching a market size of $7.51 billion by 2031 [9][10] Investment Strategy - The rapid expansion of drone applications across various fields is driving the demand for counter-drone equipment [10] - Chinese military enterprises have a comprehensive layout in the counter-drone system sector, with several listed companies involved in various aspects of the industry [10][9] - Recommended companies for investment include those involved in upstream components and complete counter-drone products [10][13]

Market Overview - US stock indices collectively rose, with the Dow Jones up 1.34%, Nasdaq up 1.95%, and S&P 500 up 1.47% [4] - Major tech stocks saw significant gains, including Nvidia, Google, and Meta, each rising over 3% [4] - Precious metals and cryptocurrencies also experienced notable increases, with gold rising over 10% [4] Commodity Prices - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.85%, closing at $3428.6 per ounce [5] - WTI crude oil futures fell by 1.54%, settling at $66.29 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures decreased by 1.31%, closing at $68.76 per barrel [6] Company Announcements - China Shipbuilding and China Heavy Industry announced plans for a significant asset restructuring, with China Shipbuilding set to absorb China Heavy Industry, leading to the latter's potential delisting [18] - ByteDance has launched its 2026 campus recruitment, offering over 5000 positions, marking a significant increase from the previous year [22] - Xiaopeng Motors reported over 18,000 overseas sales in the first half of 2025, a 217% year-on-year increase, indicating strong international market performance [31] Strategic Partnerships - LoBo KuaiPao has formed a strategic partnership with Lyft to provide autonomous driving services in Europe, starting with Germany and the UK [27] - JD's Seven Fresh Kitchen has launched a collaboration with XiaoKa Coffee, introducing a new coffee product line [29] Financial Developments - Kuozi Jiao's controlling shareholder plans to reduce holdings, potentially exceeding 1 billion yuan in total cash-out, raising concerns about the company's future performance [25] - IKEA China announced its entry into JD's platform, enhancing its online presence and sales channels [33]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The article discusses recent IPO activities, highlighting two completed IPOs that raised approximately $1.2 billion, along with several companies planning to go public in the near future. Group 1: Recent IPOs - Circle (CRCL) completed its IPO at $31 per share, raising $1.054 billion by issuing 34 million shares, exceeding its initial plan of $24 to $26 per share and 24 million shares [1] - Omada (OMDA) raised $150 million by issuing 7.9 million shares at $19 per share [1] Group 2: Upcoming IPOs - Voyager Technologies, Inc. plans to go public on June 11, 2025, on the NYSE under the ticker VOYG, aiming to raise approximately $319 million by issuing 11 million shares at $26 to $29 per share. The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of $34.51 million, up from $30.22 million year-over-year, with a net loss of $26.94 million compared to a loss of $14.82 million in the previous year [2] - Chime Financial, Inc. is set to list on June 12, 2025, on NASDAQ under the ticker CHYM, with plans to raise about $832 million by issuing 32 million shares at $24 to $26 per share. As of March 31, 2025, Chime reported revenue of $519 million, an increase from $392 million year-over-year, with a net profit of $12.94 million compared to $15.90 million in the previous year [4][5] - Ategrity Specialty Holdings LLC plans to go public on June 12, 2025, on the NYSE under the ticker ASIC, aiming to raise approximately $107 million by issuing 6.67 million shares at $14 to $16 per share. The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of $82.12 million, up from $76.07 million year-over-year, with a net profit of $8.45 million compared to $8.96 million in the previous year [6] - Vantage Corp is scheduled to list on June 12, 2025, on NYSE MKT under the ticker VNTG, with plans to raise about $16.25 million by issuing 3.25 million shares at $4 to $5 per share. For the fiscal year 2023-2024, Vantage reported revenue of $23.99 million and $20 million, with net profits of $5.86 million and $4.96 million respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a long-term positive outlook for the military industry, with specific companies recommended for investment, including 中航沈飞, 航天南湖, and 中航西飞, among others [12][9]. Core Viewpoints - The intensification of great power competition is seen as a long-term trend, leading to increased defense spending and a favorable outlook for the military industry. The report emphasizes the need for enhanced national defense capabilities to ensure peace and security [9][3]. - Recent successful satellite launches by China, including the communication technology test satellite and the space computing satellite constellation, highlight advancements in aerospace capabilities [28][11]. - The report notes that the defense industry index has underperformed the broader market, indicating potential investment opportunities in specific sectors [15][10]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - Key investment areas include: 1. Assembly: 中航沈飞, 航天南湖, 中航西飞 2. Components: 中航光电, 航天电器, 国博电子 3. Subsystems: 中航机载, 北方导航 4. Materials and Processing: 抚顺特钢, 中航重机, 菲利华, 光威复材, 图南股份, 华秦科技, 铂力特, 西部材料 [12][4]. Market Review - The defense industry index fell by 1.61%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 0.76%, and the ChiNext Index, which increased by 1.38%. The defense sector ranked last among 29 sectors [15][16]. - Ground weaponry and aviation sectors performed relatively well during the same period [20][22]. Major News in the Military Industry - Domestic news includes the successful launch of the communication technology test satellite and the space computing satellite constellation, showcasing China's advancements in satellite technology [28][11]. - International developments include the U.S. State Department's approval of a $1.4 billion arms sale to the UAE and President Trump's announcement of the development of the F-55 fighter jet, indicating ongoing military advancements and collaborations [38][34].