中国经济丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 德国 150 年财政四部曲之二：增长与改革 ——大财政系列 14 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本篇报告为《德国 150 年财政复盘》的第二篇，聚焦德国 1945-1990 年的财政历史。这一时期 由于德国分裂为西德和东德，我们重点分析西德的历史，并将其分为三个阶段：1）1945-1965 战后重建期，关键词是"化债与奇迹"。货币财政重点从战后赔偿逐步转向战后重建，西德在艾 哈德"社会市场经济"的引导下迎来"经济奇迹"。2）1966-1980 全球滞胀期，关键词是"危 机与应对"，西德紧货币的态度一度保持温和通胀，宽财政从卓有成效变为效果有限，遭遇"德 国病"。3）1981-1990 产业转型期，关键词是"病夫与整顿"，需求侧管理转向供给侧改革。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490520080011 SFC：BUX667 SFC：BVZ974 于博 宋筱筱 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 31 ...

Core Viewpoint - The proposal for a millionaire tax by Trump faces significant opposition, primarily from Republican senators and prominent supply-side economists, leading to predictions that it will not progress further [1] Group 1 - The millionaire tax proposal has encountered widespread criticism and confusion [1] - The current forecast indicates that the proposal is unlikely to advance [1] - The ultimate outcome of the proposal remains uncertain [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's governing philosophy and policy proposals echo those of William McKinley and Ronald Reagan, but he faces more severe structural constraints, and his policy logic may evolve to use tariffs as a tactical deterrent, technology breakthrough as a long - term strategic fulcrum, and debt restructuring/monetization to relieve debt pressure, with the continuous collapse of the US dollar's credit seemingly inevitable [4][9][70] - Trade protectionism cannot subvert the fundamental logic of industrial evolution. McKinley and Reagan's successes were due to specific historical conditions, while Trump faces "triple hard constraints" [4][70] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Historical Repetition? —— Policy Review of McKinley and Reagan 1.1. Trade Barriers in the McKinley Era: High - Tariff Protectionism - After the Civil War, the US pursued trade protectionism. In 1890, the "McKinley Tariff" raised the average import tariff from 38% to 49.5%, which stimulated the rise of the US steel industry but led to retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural products from other countries, causing severe losses to US farmers [10][13][17] 1.2. Reaganomics: Trade Protection and Manufacturing Revitalization - In the 1980s, the US economy was in a "stagflation" quagmire. Reagan's government took a series of trade protection measures to protect relevant industries in the short - term, but failed to reverse the overall trend of manufacturing outflow. The US also implemented tax cuts and deregulation, but the trade deficit increased from $19.4 billion in 1980 to $151.7 billion in 1987 [20][24][36] 2. Can Old Remedies Cure New Ills? —— Challenges and Variations in the Trump Era 2.1. Historical Echo? "Manufacturing Anxiety" Continues for a Century - From McKinley to Trump, the US has faced challenges of declining manufacturing competitiveness and expanding trade deficits, with tariffs and trade restrictions being core policy tools [40] 2.2. Era Variation? Deep Globalization and High Debt - Trump faces more severe challenges. Globalization is more deeply embedded, making trade protection policies more counter - effective. The world is more multi - polar, weakening the effectiveness of unilateral actions. High federal debt compresses the operational space of fiscal policies [42] 3. Is Global Taxation a Poisonous Remedy? —— What Other Cards Does Trump Have in the Future? 3.1. Taxing Externally and Cutting Taxes Internally to Promote Manufacturing Reshoring - Trump's "equivalent tariff" policy has multiple dilemmas. Tariff contributions are limited, and there is a serious shortage of industrial workers. The government may take a combination of strategies such as precise tariff regulation, labor supply supplementation, and technological application promotion [55][57][60] 3.2. Multiple Approaches to Promote Debt Resolution - The Trump government aims to resolve the high - debt problem. There are four main paths: economic growth, debt restructuring, inflation, and debt monetization. However, each path has its own difficulties and potential negative impacts [61][62][66] 4. Historical Cycle or Era Break? —— Possible End - Game of Trump's Policies - Trump may shift to "precise deterrence" in trade policies and has a more complex path for debt resolution. Trade protectionism cannot change the fundamental logic of industrial evolution, and the continuous collapse of the US dollar's credit may be inevitable [69][70]