炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 摘要 第一，2026年1月30日，特朗普宣布他将提名沃什担任下届美联储主席，接替鲍威尔，鲍威尔作为主席 的任期将于 5 月届满。特朗普在声明中回顾了沃什的职业背景，并声称沃什将成为"史上最伟大的美联 储主席之一"（he will go down as one of the great Fed chairmen），且"绝不会让人失望"（he will never let you down）。提名仍需参议院银行委员会听证及全体投票确认。 第二，沃什的履历组合非常多样化，他同时具备华尔街并购、白宫经济政策工作以及美联储危机应对的 实操经验。他曾在1995年-2002年担任摩根士丹利执行董事负责并购业务，熟悉华尔街运作机制；在 2002-2006白宫经济政策特别助理、国家经济委员会执行秘书。在2006年至2011年担任美联储理事。在 2008年全球金融危机期间，他担任美联储与华尔街之间的首席联络人，并且是G20代表。2011年，他因 反对第二轮量化宽松（QE2）而辞职，认为这种大规模买入债券的行为会扭曲市场，并可能导致未来严 重的通胀和财政纪律 ...

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 1 月 31 日 证券研究报告 沃什时代前瞻：美联储政策框架的三个转向 | [Tabl 分析师： | 郭磊 | 分析师： | 陈嘉荔 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120005 | | | SFC CE.no: BNY419 | | | | | 021-38003572 | | 021-38003674 | | | guolei@gf.com.cn | | gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，陈嘉荔并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | | [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 2026 年 1 月 30 日，特朗普宣布他将提名沃什担任下届美联储主席，接替鲍威尔，鲍威尔作为主席的任期将于 5 月届满。特朗普在声明中回顾了沃什的职业背景，并声称沃什将成为"史上最伟大的美联储主席之一"（ he will go down as one of ...

gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 2026 年 1 月 30 日，特朗普宣布他将提名沃什担任下届美联储主席，接替鲍威尔，鲍威尔作为主席 的任期将于 5 月届满。特朗普在声明中回顾了沃什的职业背景，并声称沃什将成为"史上最伟大的美联储主席 之一"（ he will go down as one of the great Fed chairmen ），且"绝不会让人失望"（ he will never let you down ）。提名仍需参议院银行委员会听证及全体投票确认。 第二， 沃什的履历组合非常多样化，他同时具备华尔街并购、白宫经济政策工作以及美联储危机应对的实操 经验 。他曾在 1995 年 -2002 年担任摩根士丹利执行董事负责并购业务，熟悉华尔街运作机制；在 2002-2006 白宫经济政策特别助理、国家经济委员会执行秘书。在 2006 年至 2011 年担任美联储理事。 在 2008 年全球金融危机期间，他担任美联储与华尔街之间的首席联络人，并且是 G20 代表。 2011 年， 他因反对第二轮量化宽松（ QE2 ）而辞职，认为这种大规模买入债券的行为会 ...

Group 1 - The concept of "tightening easing" is introduced, indicating that the current interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve is nearing its end, despite not immediately signaling rate hikes [1] - The emphasis on "data dependence" and "risk management" by Federal Reserve members suggests that while rates are close to neutral, inflation risks remain tilted upwards [1][3] - The potential for a significant economic impact from Trump's proposed tax cuts and spending increases is highlighted, with a focus on stimulating investment and consumption [6][10] Group 2 - Historical context is provided regarding Reaganomics, which successfully reduced inflation and increased GDP growth in the 1980s, suggesting a possible revival of similar policies under Trump [3][8] - The current market environment indicates that U.S. stocks have a solid foundation for continued growth, supported by expected economic benefits from inflation decline and interest rate cuts [10] - Concerns about the sustainability of U.S. sovereign debt are raised, particularly in light of high existing debt levels and the absence of a robust industrial base [8][11] Group 3 - The relationship between the dollar and gold is discussed, noting that while traditionally they are inversely correlated, current market dynamics may lead to a more complex interaction [14][15] - Predictions for gold prices are optimistic, with expectations of reaching $5000 per ounce driven by geopolitical risks and a weakening dollar [15] - The potential for volatility in the credit and sovereign debt markets is acknowledged, but the stability of balance sheets across major economies is expected to mitigate severe market shocks [16]

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing debate between demand-side and supply-side economics, emphasizing that both are important but often oversimplified in policy discussions [1][2][4] - It highlights the historical context of Keynesian economics and its application during the Great Depression, suggesting that Keynes' ideas have been misinterpreted over time [4][6][7] - The article critiques modern interpretations of Keynesianism, noting that many contemporary economists have lost sight of the complexities of economic systems, leading to ineffective policies [9][11][12] Group 2 - The rise of supply-side economics in the late 20th century is presented as a reaction to perceived failures of Keynesian policies, with a focus on tax cuts and deregulation [11][12][21] - The article argues that both demand-side and supply-side approaches have failed to address the underlying issues in the U.S. economy, particularly the decline of manufacturing and rising inequality [12][21][22] - It concludes that superficial policy measures, such as tariffs and tax cuts, do not address the foundational elements necessary for a robust economy, leading to ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector [22][24]

Group 1: Economic Phases - The report divides West Germany's fiscal history from 1945 to 1990 into three phases: 1) 1945-1965 Post-war Reconstruction; 2) 1966-1980 Global Stagflation; 3) 1981-1990 Industrial Transformation[3] - The post-war reconstruction period (1945-1965) is characterized by debt reduction and economic miracles, driven by currency reform and the Marshall Plan, which injected approximately $1.6 billion into West Germany[7][31] - The global stagflation period (1966-1980) saw West Germany facing growth bottlenecks, transitioning from fiscal surplus to deficit, with government leverage increasing from 8% in 1970 to 15% in 1980[9][10] Group 2: Key Economic Policies - The currency reform in 1948 replaced 93.5% of the old currency, stabilizing the economy and eliminating hyperinflation risks[7][28] - The Marshall Plan provided crucial support for coal, steel, and infrastructure, helping West Germany's industrial production index rise from around 20 to nearly 90 by 1949[31][37] - The introduction of supply-side reforms in 1982 under Chancellor Helmut Kohl aimed to restructure the economy, reduce social welfare, and promote re-industrialization[11][12] Group 3: Economic Challenges - The steel crisis during the stagflation period highlighted structural weaknesses in West Germany's economy, leading to high unemployment and a decline in international competitiveness[10] - The government faced challenges in managing inflation and unemployment, with the unemployment rate fluctuating significantly during the 1970s[10][30] - The transition from demand-side management to supply-side reforms marked a significant shift in economic policy, reflecting the need for structural adjustments[11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The proposal for a millionaire tax by Trump faces significant opposition, primarily from Republican senators and prominent supply-side economists, leading to predictions that it will not progress further [1] Group 1 - The millionaire tax proposal has encountered widespread criticism and confusion [1] - The current forecast indicates that the proposal is unlikely to advance [1] - The ultimate outcome of the proposal remains uncertain [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's governing philosophy and policy proposals echo those of William McKinley and Ronald Reagan, but he faces more severe structural constraints, and his policy logic may evolve to use tariffs as a tactical deterrent, technology breakthrough as a long - term strategic fulcrum, and debt restructuring/monetization to relieve debt pressure, with the continuous collapse of the US dollar's credit seemingly inevitable [4][9][70] - Trade protectionism cannot subvert the fundamental logic of industrial evolution. McKinley and Reagan's successes were due to specific historical conditions, while Trump faces "triple hard constraints" [4][70] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Historical Repetition? —— Policy Review of McKinley and Reagan 1.1. Trade Barriers in the McKinley Era: High - Tariff Protectionism - After the Civil War, the US pursued trade protectionism. In 1890, the "McKinley Tariff" raised the average import tariff from 38% to 49.5%, which stimulated the rise of the US steel industry but led to retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural products from other countries, causing severe losses to US farmers [10][13][17] 1.2. Reaganomics: Trade Protection and Manufacturing Revitalization - In the 1980s, the US economy was in a "stagflation" quagmire. Reagan's government took a series of trade protection measures to protect relevant industries in the short - term, but failed to reverse the overall trend of manufacturing outflow. The US also implemented tax cuts and deregulation, but the trade deficit increased from $19.4 billion in 1980 to $151.7 billion in 1987 [20][24][36] 2. Can Old Remedies Cure New Ills? —— Challenges and Variations in the Trump Era 2.1. Historical Echo? "Manufacturing Anxiety" Continues for a Century - From McKinley to Trump, the US has faced challenges of declining manufacturing competitiveness and expanding trade deficits, with tariffs and trade restrictions being core policy tools [40] 2.2. Era Variation? Deep Globalization and High Debt - Trump faces more severe challenges. Globalization is more deeply embedded, making trade protection policies more counter - effective. The world is more multi - polar, weakening the effectiveness of unilateral actions. High federal debt compresses the operational space of fiscal policies [42] 3. Is Global Taxation a Poisonous Remedy? —— What Other Cards Does Trump Have in the Future? 3.1. Taxing Externally and Cutting Taxes Internally to Promote Manufacturing Reshoring - Trump's "equivalent tariff" policy has multiple dilemmas. Tariff contributions are limited, and there is a serious shortage of industrial workers. The government may take a combination of strategies such as precise tariff regulation, labor supply supplementation, and technological application promotion [55][57][60] 3.2. Multiple Approaches to Promote Debt Resolution - The Trump government aims to resolve the high - debt problem. There are four main paths: economic growth, debt restructuring, inflation, and debt monetization. However, each path has its own difficulties and potential negative impacts [61][62][66] 4. Historical Cycle or Era Break? —— Possible End - Game of Trump's Policies - Trump may shift to "precise deterrence" in trade policies and has a more complex path for debt resolution. Trade protectionism cannot change the fundamental logic of industrial evolution, and the continuous collapse of the US dollar's credit may be inevitable [69][70]