每经评论员 赵李南 2月10日，中芯国际发布业绩快报。数据显示，2025年中芯国际未经审计的营业收入为673亿元，再次创 下历史新高，同比增长16.5%。在营收高歌猛进的同时，中芯国际2025年的归母净利润约为50亿元，虽 然保持同比增长，但若拉长周期看，这一数字远未回到2022年的巅峰水平。 笔者认为，对当下的中芯国际而言，归母净利润并不能完全反映经营状况。在半导体产业从消费电子向 人工智能（AI）转型的当下，在国产替代的疯狂扩产周期中，看归母净利润不如看EBITDA（息税折旧 及摊销前利润）。 第一，从现金流量表更能看出中芯国际被隐藏的真实战力。与历史峰值相比，如果只看利润表，中芯国 际似乎陷入了"增收不增利"的怪圈。但如果翻开现金流量表和资产负债表，则会发现一个完全不同的故 事。 公告显示，2025年中芯国际的资本开支高达81亿美元。这意味着，中芯国际2025年的资本开支占到全年 营收的八成以上。这种高达80%~90%的"资本开支/营收比"，在全球集成电路代工行业中处于较高水 平。而根据中芯国际预测，其2026年的资本开支仍将维持在超80亿美元的高位（与2025年相比大致持 平）。 在重资产的半导体行业 ...

笔者认为，对当下的中芯国际而言，归母净利润并不能完全反映经营状况。在半导体产业从消费电子向 人工智能（AI）转型的当下，在国产替代的疯狂扩产周期中，看归母净利润不如看EBITDA（息税折旧 及摊销前利润）。 第一，从现金流量表更能看出中芯国际被隐藏的真实战力。与历史峰值相比，如果只看利润表，中芯国 际似乎陷入了"增收不增利"的怪圈。但如果翻开现金流量表和资产负债表，则会发现一个完全不同的故 事。 公告显示，2025年中芯国际的资本开支高达81亿美元。这意味着，中芯国际2025年的资本开支占到全年 营收的八成以上。这种高达80%~90%的"资本开支/营收比"，在全球集成电路代工行业中处于较高水 平。而根据中芯国际预测，其2026年的资本开支仍将维持在超80亿美元的高位（与2025年相比大致持 平）。 在重资产的半导体行业，今天的资本开支，就是明天的折旧摊销。中芯国际目前正处于多地工厂同时扩 产的"深耕期"。大量新设备投入运营，带来了高额折旧费用，这些非现金支出像滚雪球一样在会计报表 上"吃掉"了利润。因此，现在的低利润，实际上是公司主动选择的财务结果。 第二，半导体产业目前面临着AI时代带来的算力"产能饥渴"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by Yuexin Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd. (Yuexin) as it struggles with significant losses and technological lag in the semiconductor industry, despite the recent implementation of a new IPO standard for unprofitable companies in China [3][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Yuexin is a wafer foundry company that provides services and solutions for chip design companies, focusing on mature process technologies and 12-inch wafers [6][9]. - The company has reported cumulative losses exceeding 52 billion yuan over three years, with net losses of 10.43 billion, 19.17 billion, and 22.53 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024 [12]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Yuexin's main business gross margin was -71% in 2024, indicating that the company incurs losses on every chip sold, with a net margin of -138.4% [15]. - The company has seen a significant decline in revenue, with projections indicating a revenue of 1.681 billion yuan in 2024, down from 1.275 billion yuan in 2022 [10]. Group 3: Technological Challenges - Yuexin's technology platforms are primarily focused on analog and mixed-signal chips, but the process nodes are lagging behind market leaders, with most processes ranging from 180nm to 55nm [20][22]. - The company has not established a positive feedback loop of R&D investment leading to performance growth, instead falling into a cycle of increasing losses and reduced R&D spending [26][27]. Group 4: Capital Needs and Future Outlook - Yuexin plans to raise 7.5 billion yuan through an IPO to address its financial needs, with a significant portion allocated to expanding production capacity and R&D for advanced processes [33][35]. - The management has indicated that the company may not achieve profitability until 2029, raising concerns about its long-term viability [36].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5] Core Views - The company achieved a record high revenue of 45.66 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.10%, although the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 43.47% to 1.77 billion yuan [2] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 13.5%, which is better than the guidance provided [2] - The company is expected to generate revenues of 170.00 billion yuan, 206.00 billion yuan, and 233.00 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 6.31 billion yuan, 11.37 billion yuan, and 15.58 billion yuan for the same years [3] Revenue and Profitability - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 125.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.82%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.51 billion yuan, down 56.52% [1] - The company’s Q4 2025 revenue guidance is between 6.5 billion to 6.6 billion USD, with a gross margin expected to be between 12% and 14% [2] Product Performance - The sales revenue for embedded non-volatile memory reached 1.597 billion USD, up 20.4% year-on-year, driven by increased demand for MCU products [2] - Independent non-volatile memory sales revenue surged by 106.6% year-on-year to 606 million USD, primarily due to the demand for flash memory products [2] - Power device sales revenue increased by 3.5% year-on-year to 1.690 billion USD, supported by the demand for super junction products [2] Financial Projections - The company’s projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.36 yuan, 0.66 yuan, and 0.90 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 326.93x, 181.40x, and 132.38x [4][3] - The net profit margin is expected to improve from 2.6% in 2024 to 6.7% in 2027 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1][10]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated steady growth in performance, with a revenue of 5.198 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing an 18.21% year-on-year increase, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 332 million yuan, up 77.61% year-on-year [5][9]. - The company is focusing on continuous product research and development, with significant achievements in the first half of 2025, including a 13.13% increase in R&D expenditure to 695 million yuan, accounting for 13.37% of revenue [9][10]. - The company is expected to maintain stable growth in operating performance, with a diversified product layout showing initial results, particularly in the DDIC, CIS, and PMIC sectors [9][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 872 million yuan, 1.342 billion yuan, and 1.811 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 55.9X, 36.3X, and 26.9X based on the closing price on August 29 [10]. - The company’s revenue and net profit are expected to grow at rates of 26.1% and 63.6% respectively in 2025, with a gross margin of 27.2% [12]. - The company’s total assets are projected to be 52.426 billion yuan in 2025, with a debt ratio of 49.0% [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The global semiconductor market is recovering, leading to a significant improvement in the profitability of Jinghe Integrated [2][5] Financial Performance - Jinghe Integrated expects to achieve operating revenue of 5.07 billion to 5.32 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.29% to 20.97% [2] - The company anticipates a net profit of 260 million to 390 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 39.04% to 108.55% [2][5] - In 2024, Jinghe Integrated reported operating revenue of 9.249 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.69%, and a net profit of 533 million yuan, up 151.78% [5] Market and Capacity Utilization - The increase in performance is attributed to the recovery of industry conditions, increased product sales, and high capacity utilization rates [3][5] - Jinghe Integrated's production line load reached 110% in June 2024, with order volumes exceeding current capacity [5] Research and Development - The company has placed a strong emphasis on R&D, with R&D expenses increasing from 397 million yuan in 2021 to 1.284 billion yuan in 2024, totaling 3.596 billion yuan over four years [6] - Jinghe Integrated has obtained 218 new patent authorizations since the beginning of 2025, a 17.84% increase compared to the same period last year [3][6] - The company focuses on technological breakthroughs and product diversification, with ongoing developments in various chip technologies [5][6] Strategic Focus - Future R&D plans will concentrate on core products such as DDIC and CIS, while also addressing emerging markets like automotive chips and AR/VR applications [6] - The company aims to strengthen collaborations with strategic clients and expand into high-end product development [6]

Trade and Economic Insights - In April, China's exports grew by 9.3% year-on-year, showcasing resilience despite US-China trade tensions [1] - For the first four months of 2025, China's total goods trade value reached 14.14 trillion yuan, a 2.4% increase year-on-year, with exports at 8.39 trillion yuan (up 7.5%) and imports at 5.75 trillion yuan (down 4.2%) [1] - High-tech products saw significant performance, with imports and exports totaling 1.52 trillion yuan, a 7.4% increase [1] - Exports to ASEAN countries increased by 12.6%, while imports from ASEAN rose by 4% [1] - The US-China trade friction is leading some Chinese exporters to reroute products through neighboring countries to mitigate high tariffs [2] UK-US Trade Agreement - The UK and US reached an agreement on tariff trade terms, with the UK making concessions on agricultural imports in exchange for reduced tariffs on UK car exports [3] - The agreement includes a reduction of tariffs on UK car exports to the US from 27.5% to 10% and eliminates tariffs on steel and aluminum [3] - The deal is seen as a framework agreement, with further negotiations needed on various details [4] Semiconductor Industry - Semiconductor giant SMIC reported a 166.5% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q1, reaching approximately 1.356 billion yuan, with revenue up 29.4% to about 16.301 billion yuan [7] - The company anticipates a revenue decline of 4% to 6% in Q2, with gross margins expected to range between 18% and 20% [7] - SMIC's performance is influenced by increased domestic demand and preemptive stockpiling by overseas clients due to US tariff policies [8] AI Development Initiatives - OpenAI announced a new global AI development initiative called "OpenAI for Countries," aiming to assist nations in developing AI infrastructure [9] - The initial goal is to launch 10 projects globally, funded by OpenAI and participating governments, although specific project locations have not been disclosed [9] Automotive Safety Standards - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in China is seeking public input on a new mandatory national standard for automotive door handles, addressing safety concerns related to hidden door handles [11] - The initiative follows incidents highlighting the safety risks associated with hidden door handles in electric vehicles [12] Banking Sector Trends - Several banks have reintroduced cash installment services with interest rates dropping to as low as 2.76%, following competitive pricing strategies [13] - The cash installment rates are not subject to the same regulatory limits as consumer loans, allowing for lower rates [13] - The banking sector is facing pressure to maintain profitability amid declining net profits and increased competition for new loans [14]