证券研究报告 | 2025年11月23日 转债市场周报 权益回调中展现"退可守"属性 核心观点 固定收益周报 上周市场焦点（11 月 17 日-11 月 21 日） 股市方面，上周市场震荡下跌，在地缘政治局势紧张、海外 AI 泡沫担 忧加剧、美国 9 月非农数据超预期导致降息预期走弱等因素影响下，市 场风险偏好明显下降，各行业板块出现普跌，具备防御属性的银行板块 跌幅较小。债市方面，上周初资金面总体偏紧，随着税期缴款结束、以 及央行持续净投放下，后半周资金转为均衡偏松；市场风险偏好走弱， 但股债跷跷板效应并不明显，债市全周窄幅震荡；周五 10 年期国债利 率收于 1.82%，较前周上行 0.26bp。 转债市场方面，上周转债个券多数收跌，中证转债指数全周-1.78%，价 格中位数-1.89%，我们计算的算术平均平价全周-6.70%，全市场转股溢 价率与上周相比+7.72%。个券层面，路维（掩膜版）、鼎龙（半导体）、 浩瀚（网络智能化）、恒锋（智慧城市信息服务）、家联（3D 打印）转 债涨幅靠前；中能（电网设备）、立中（铝合金锭&已公告强赎）、豫 光（贵金属&已公告强赎）、天赐（电解液&已公告强赎）、宏发（继电 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the convertible bond market followed the equity market with continued volatile upward movement, and the valuation slightly decreased. The Wind Convertible Bond Weighted Index outperformed the Wind All A by 0.27 pcts. The Wind Convertible Bond Double - Low Index led the sub - indices with a 1.43% increase. The Convertible Bond ETF had a net redemption of 10.02 billion yuan. - In the short term, the convertible bond market will follow the equity market with a structural theme - based market due to the US government shutdown and year - end profit - taking sentiment. However, the supply - demand imbalance in the convertible bond market will support the valuation, and the double - low and dumbbell strategies are advantageous. Defensive positions can be in the large - financial and coal sectors, while offensive positions can be in new energy and low - valuation technology convertible bonds. - In the primary market, Qizhong Convertible Bond and Zhuomei Convertible Bond were issued, Jinlang Convertible Bond 02 was listed, and several bonds were redeemed early or expired and delisted. As of last Friday, the convertible bond market's outstanding scale was 576.651 billion yuan, a decrease of 157.242 billion yuan from the beginning of the year. Five bonds were approved by the CSRC to be issued, totaling 4.2 billion yuan, and seven bonds passed the issuance review committee, totaling 6.286 billion yuan [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Policy Tracking - On November 4, five departments including the National Health Commission issued the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting and Regulating the Application and Development of 'Artificial Intelligence + Healthcare'". By 2027, key applications of AI in healthcare will be widely used, and high - value application scenarios will be created to drive the high - quality development of the health industry [2][4]. Secondary Market - **Equity Market**: Last week, major equity market indices fluctuated strongly. Overseas, the US government shutdown affected market risk appetite. Domestically, CPI and PPI data sent positive signals, and the market focused on performance and anti - involution policies. High - position sectors retreated, and dividend assets strengthened, with coal, chemical, and banking sectors leading the gains [3]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: - The convertible bond market indices followed the equity market and rose. The average daily trading volume was 69.904 billion yuan, an increase of 3.231 billion yuan from the previous week. The Convertible Bond ETF had a net redemption of 10.02 billion yuan [6]. - Structurally, the large - cap style in the convertible bond market strengthened, and the double - low convertible bonds performed well. The high - price and small - cap indices underperformed. In terms of historical quantiles, the conversion value quantile decreased, while the convertible bond price quantile increased, driving up the conversion premium rate. The trading activity declined [7]. - By industry, most convertible bonds in various industries rose. Steel industry convertible bonds led with an average increase of over 2%, while computer and automobile industry convertible bonds declined. The overall valuation of convertible bonds slightly increased, and the valuation quantiles of different industries changed differently [8]. - In terms of individual bonds, most convertible bonds rose. Bonds in the power grid and solid - state battery sectors led the gains, while some bonds with poor performance in the third quarter declined significantly [10]. - In terms of price and valuation, the arithmetic average and median of convertible bond prices changed slightly. The arithmetic average and median of the conversion premium rate and pure - bond premium rate decreased [20]. Primary Market - **New Issues and Listings**: Qizhong Convertible Bond and Zhuomei Convertible Bond were issued, and Jinlang Convertible Bond 02 was listed with strong performance. Several bonds were redeemed early or expired and delisted. As of November 7, the convertible bond market's outstanding scale was 576.651 billion yuan, a decrease of 157.242 billion yuan from the beginning of the year and 4.623 billion yuan from the previous week [28]. - **Conversion and Redemption**: Eight convertible bonds had a conversion ratio of over 5%, one more than the previous week. Several bonds announced early redemption, and some bonds triggered conversion due to negative conversion premium rates [30]. - **Issuance Progress**: Shangtai Technology and Jinpan Technology's convertible bond issuance plans passed the exchange review. As of last Friday, five bonds were approved by the CSRC to be issued, totaling 4.2 billion yuan, and seven bonds passed the issuance review committee, totaling 6.286 billion yuan [33][34]. - **Clause Tracking**: No convertible bond announced a downward revision of the conversion price, and one bond announced early redemption. Several bonds proposed or were about to trigger a downward revision of the conversion price, and many bonds were expected to trigger early redemption conditions [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the convertible bond market experienced an obvious style shift, with the TMT sectors like computer, media, and communication cooling off, while the power equipment sector led the rise, and photovoltaic convertible bonds performed brightly. The valuation of debt - oriented convertible bonds was firm, outperforming equity - oriented ones. With the market rising in a volatile manner, the valuation in the 130 - 140 yuan parity range was significantly weak due to strong redemption expectations. The convertible bonds lagged behind the underlying stocks, with their gains less than half of the underlying stocks. Indicators such as the median convertible bond price, the premium rate per hundred yuan, and the yield to maturity have returned to the upper edge of the oscillation range since September. If they can break through effectively, the short - term upward trend of convertible bonds is expected to be strengthened [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Convertible Bond Valuation - The convertible bond premium rate per hundred yuan is still in an oscillating trend, within the range of 2 times the standard deviation above and below the 250 - day average. As of the latest, with outliers retained, the market - wide convertible bond premium rate per hundred yuan is 35.7%, down 0.1% week - on - week, and the latest percentile is at the 93.8% percentile since 2017 [2][4]. - Compared with last week, the valuations of debt - oriented and low - parity convertible bonds were stronger, with both the conversion premium rate and the bottom - support premium rate rising, and prices slightly increasing. The valuations of equity - oriented and high - parity convertible bonds were weaker, with the conversion premium rate oscillating downward. The valuation in the 130 - 140 yuan parity range declined significantly, and its historical percentile was significantly lower than other parity ranges [2][8]. - This week, the median convertible bond price and the yield to maturity were reported at 133.30 yuan and - 6.82% respectively, changing by + 0.96 yuan and - 0.18% week - on - week. Their current percentile levels are at the 99.80% and 0.30% percentiles since 2017 [2][13]. 3.2 Clause Tracking 3.2.1 Redemption - This week, Qibin Convertible Bond announced redemption, and Fenggong Convertible Bond announced non - redemption, with a strong redemption rate of 50%. Currently, there are 12 convertible bonds that have issued strong redemption or maturity redemption announcements but have not delisted. Among the non - delisted convertible bonds, the potential conversion or maturity balance of strongly redeemed and matured convertible bonds is 6 billion yuan. There are currently 40 convertible bonds in the redemption process, and 9 are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week [2][17][20]. 3.2.2 Downward Revision - This week, Aidi Convertible Bond proposed a downward revision. As of the latest, 98 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision period, 20 cannot be downward - revised due to net asset constraints, 2 have triggered the condition and the stock price is still below the downward - revision trigger price but no announcement has been made, 31 are accumulating downward - revision days, and 4 have issued board proposals for downward revision but have not held a general meeting of shareholders [2][22]. 3.2.3 Put Option - This week, no convertible bond issued a conditional put option announcement. As of the latest, 7 convertible bonds are accumulating put - option trigger days, among which 1 proposed a downward revision, 1 has triggered the downward - revision condition, and 5 are in the non - downward - revision period [2][25]. 3.3 Primary Issuance - This week, no convertible bond issued an issuance announcement. Qizhong Convertible Bond and Zhuomei Convertible Bond have been issued and are waiting for listing. As of the latest, there are 7 convertible bonds at the approval - for - registration stage, with a to - be - issued scale of 6.9 billion yuan; and 7 at the listing - committee - approval stage, with a to - be - issued scale of 6.3 billion yuan [2][27].

Macro Strategy - The core view indicates that actual interest rates remain the key anchor for gold prices, with fluctuations in monetary policy impacting market sentiment and gold's value [1][6] - In October, gold prices experienced a "rise then fall" pattern, influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic data, leading to a 5.27% increase in the Shanghai gold futures by the end of the month [1][6] - The outlook for November suggests that gold prices will be driven by geopolitical situations, trade negotiations, and macroeconomic policies, with expectations of continued high volatility [1][6] Fixed Income - The report on Qizhong Convertible Bonds anticipates a listing price between 126.64 and 140.59 CNY, with a subscription rate of 0.0028% [2][7] - The bond has a total issuance scale of 850 million CNY, with proceeds allocated for advanced packaging and testing projects [7][8] Industry Analysis - The food and beverage industry report highlights a 5.5% decline in total revenue and a 6.7% drop in net profit for the liquor sector in the first three quarters of 2025, with a more pronounced 18.3% revenue decline in Q3 [3][10] - The report notes that the recovery of consumption scenarios is slow, particularly in business and personal dining contexts, leading to sustained pressure on demand for high-end and mid-range liquor [3][10] - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on companies that are likely to see early signs of recovery and have strong growth potential, such as Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu, while also considering companies with solid governance and dividend yields [4][11] Company Recommendations - Tiangong International is highlighted for its potential growth in titanium alloy production, with projected revenues of 5.2 billion, 6.1 billion, and 7 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, reflecting growth rates of 8%, 16%, and 14% respectively [5][11] - The company is positioned well in the consumer electronics sector and is expanding into new materials for robotics and nuclear fusion applications, which are expected to drive future growth [5][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The target price of Qizhong Convertible Bond on the first trading day is estimated to be between 128 - 133 yuan, and investors are advised to actively subscribe. Considering the current market environment and parity level, the conversion premium rate on the first listing day is expected to be in the range of 28% - 33% [3][18]. - The estimated first - day new - bond lottery winning rate is around 0.0024% - 0.004% [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Qizhong Convertible Bond New - Bond Analysis and Investment Suggestions 1.1 Convertible Bond Basic Terms Analysis - The issuance methods of Qizhong Convertible Bond are priority placement and online issuance. The bond and issuer ratings are AA+. The issuance scale is 850 million yuan, the initial conversion price is 13.75 yuan, the bond parity is 100.29 yuan, and the pure bond value is 98.54 yuan. The game terms are normal. Overall, the bond issuance scale is average, the liquidity is average, the rating is good, and the bond floor protection is good. It is not difficult for institutions to include it in their portfolios, and there is no objection to primary participation [2][14]. 1.2 New - Bond Initial Listing Price Analysis - The company mainly engages in advanced packaging and testing of integrated circuits, focusing on the display driver chip packaging and testing field and non - display chip packaging and testing fields such as power management chips and RF front - end chips. The funds raised from this issuance will be used for relevant projects, which can optimize the company's capital structure and enhance its market competitiveness [3][17]. 1.3 Convertible Bond New - Bond Lottery Winning Rate Analysis - Assuming the old shareholders' placement ratio is 59% - 76%, the scale of Qizhong Convertible Bond available to the market is 203 million - 350 million yuan. Assuming the online effective subscription number is 8.65 million households, the lottery winning rate is around 0.0024% - 0.004% [19]. 2. Underlying Stock Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Company's Main Business and Industry Upstream and Downstream - The company focuses on advanced packaging and testing of integrated circuits, mainly in the display driver chip and non - display chip packaging and testing fields. The integrated circuit industry chain includes chip design, wafer manufacturing, and packaging and testing. The upstream of the packaging and testing industry is integrated circuit manufacturing. Different types of chips have different downstream application markets [20][21]. 2.2 Company's Operating Conditions - The company's recent operating income has shown an increasing trend. From 2022 to the first half of 2025, the operating income was 1.317 billion yuan, 1.629 billion yuan, 1.95 billion yuan, and 996 million yuan respectively. The comprehensive gross profit margin has declined, and the net profit margin has also decreased. The company's period expenses have fluctuated slightly, and R & D expenses have been increasing. Accounts receivable have risen, but the turnover rate remains relatively high. The net profit attributable to the parent company has changed significantly [24][28][30]. 2.3 Company's Equity Structure and Major Subsidiaries - As of June 30, 2025, the company's equity structure is relatively concentrated. The top two shareholders hold 58.83% of the shares, and the top ten shareholders hold 76.06% of the shares. The company has one wholly - owned first - level subsidiary and one wholly - owned second - level subsidiary [43]. 2.4 Company's Business Characteristics and Advantages - The company is an advanced packaging and testing service provider for integrated circuits, with advantages in technological innovation, talent cultivation and introduction policies, and R & D incentive policies [46]. 2.5 Allocation of Funds Raised in This Issuance - The company plans to issue convertible bonds to raise up to 850 million yuan. 419 million yuan will be used for the "High - Pin - Count Micro - Sized Bump Packaging and Testing Project", and 431 million yuan will be used for the "Advanced Power and Flip - Chip Packaging and Testing Technology Transformation Project of Qizhong Technology (Suzhou) Co., Ltd." [12][49].

Group 1 - The company has approved a share repurchase plan using excess funds, self-owned funds, and special loan funds, with a maximum repurchase price of RMB 16.61 per share and a total repurchase amount between RMB 75 million and RMB 150 million [2][3] - As of October 31, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 8,714,483 shares, accounting for 0.73% of the total share capital, with a total expenditure of approximately RMB 100.40 million [4][5] Group 2 - The company is issuing convertible bonds worth RMB 850 million, with each bond having a face value of RMB 100, and the issuance has been approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [9][10] - Original shareholders have priority in subscribing to the convertible bonds, with a subscription ratio of 0.000720 bonds per share held, and the subscription date is set for November 3, 2025 [11][19] - The total number of shares eligible for original shareholders to participate in the priority subscription is 1,180,322,805 shares after excluding repurchased shares [19] Group 3 - The issuance of convertible bonds will be conducted through an online subscription system, with a minimum subscription unit of 1 hand (1,000 RMB) and a maximum of 1,000 hands (100,000 RMB) per account [29][30] - If the total subscription amount from original shareholders and public investors is less than 70% of the total issuance, the company may consider suspending the issuance [33][34]

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - The bond market sentiment was generally positive last week due to factors such as the central bank's resumption of treasury bond trading, loose cross - month funds, the stock market decline after the Sino - US summit, and weak PMI data. The 10 - year treasury bond yield closed at 1.80% on Friday, down 5.32bp from the previous week [1][7][8]. - The equity market rose first and then fell last week. With positive factors like Sino - US trade negotiations, the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" draft, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the A - share market was strong in the first half of the week, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high above 4000. However, it declined in the second half as positive news materialized and the demand for profit - taking increased. The technology hardware sector, which had a high increase previously, led the decline [1][7]. - Most convertible bond issues rose last week. The CSI Convertible Bond Index increased by 0.79% for the whole week, the median price rose by 0.63%, and the calculated arithmetic average parity increased by 0.64%. The overall conversion premium rate increased by 0.10% compared with the previous week [1][8]. - Convertible bonds are still restricted by high prices, high premiums, and frequent redemptions. The overall opportunity is hard to find as the median convertible bond price remains above 130 yuan. For different types of convertible bonds, there are different challenges, such as limited capacity and return space for low - price strategies in debt - biased convertible bonds, over - anticipation of underlying stock price increases in balanced convertible bonds, and the risk of double - killing of valuation and parity in high - quality "core stocks" of non - redeemable equity - biased convertible bonds during market fluctuations [2][17]. - Given the strong bullish atmosphere in the equity market, it is difficult to make decisions on increasing or decreasing positions. The overall assets should be treated with a trading - band mindset. When selecting bonds, it is advisable to allocate evenly across industries. For balanced convertible bonds, choose those with high - volatility underlying stocks that can quickly digest the high convertible bond premiums, and for equity - biased convertible bonds, focus on low - premium targets [2][17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Trends (2025/10/27 - 2025/10/31) Stock Market - The equity market showed a volatile trend. The Shanghai Composite Index had different daily changes: up 1.18% on Monday, down 0.22% on Tuesday, up 0.7% on Wednesday, down 0.73% on Thursday, and down 0.81% on Friday. Different sectors had varying performances each day [7]. - Most Shenwan primary industries rose last week. The top - performing industries were power equipment (4.29%), non - ferrous metals (2.56%), steel (2.55%), basic chemicals (2.50%), and comprehensive (2.26%), while communication (-3.59%), beauty care (-2.21%), banking (-2.16%), and electronics (-1.65%) performed poorly [8]. Bond Market - The bond market sentiment was good. The 10 - year treasury bond yield closed at 1.80% on Friday, down 5.32bp from the previous week, influenced by factors such as the central bank's actions, fund conditions, stock market movements, and PMI data [1][7][8]. Convertible Bond Market - Most convertible bond issues rose. The CSI Convertible Bond Index increased by 0.79% for the whole week, the median price rose by 0.63%, and the arithmetic average parity increased by 0.64%. The overall conversion premium rate increased by 0.10% compared with the previous week. The arithmetic average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in different parity ranges also changed [1][8]. - In terms of industries, most convertible bond industries rose. The top - performing industries were steel (+3.04%), machinery and equipment (+2.15%), national defense and military industry (+1.75%), and automobile (+1.16%), while communication (-3.18%), beauty care (-3.17%), building materials (-0.75%), and media (-0.48%) performed poorly [11]. - At the individual bond level, Titan (solid - state battery concept), Dazhong (lithium mine), Zhenhua (chromium salt), Zhonghuan Zhuan 2 (innovative drugs), and Yunji (belt conveyor) convertible bonds led the increase, while Tongguang (optical fiber cable), Shuiyang (skin care products), Jingda (controllable nuclear fusion), Huayi (semiconductor clean room), and Wujin (stainless steel) convertible bonds led the decline [1][12]. - The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 310.731 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 62.146 billion yuan, which was higher than the previous week [15]. Valuation Overview - As of October 31, 2025, for equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates in different parity intervals were at different percentile levels since 2010 and 2021. For debt - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM of those with a parity below 70 yuan was -5.3%, at the 0%/1% percentile levels since 2010/2021. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 40.84%, and the difference between the convertible bond implied volatility and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks was -1.34%, both at certain percentile levels [18]. Primary Market Tracking Last Week (2025/10/27 - 2025/10/31) - Qizhong Convertible Bond announced its issuance, and Jin 25 and Funeng Convertible Bonds were listed. Qizhong Convertible Bond has a scale of 850 million yuan, Jin 25 Convertible Bond has a scale of 2 billion yuan, and Funeng Convertible Bond has a scale of 3.802 billion yuan. Each bond's underlying company has its own business characteristics, financial performance, and planned use of funds after deducting issuance fees [26][27][29]. - One company (Ruikeda) got new approval for registration, one company (Shuangle Co., Ltd.) passed the listing committee review, 13 companies' applications were accepted by the exchange, one company (Mankun Technology) passed the shareholders' meeting, and 4 companies announced board proposals [31]. Future Week (2025/11/3 - 2025/11/7) - As of the announcement on October 31, there is no convertible bond announced for issuance, and Jinlang Zhuan 02 is expected to be listed. It has a scale of 1.677 billion yuan, and its underlying company has specific business operations, financial data, and planned use of funds [30]. - Currently, there are 94 convertible bonds waiting to be issued, with a total scale of 143.51 billion yuan. Among them, 5 have been approved for registration with a total scale of 4.15 billion yuan, and 6 have passed the listing committee review with a total scale of 3.38 billion yuan [31].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent proposals and decisions regarding various convertible bonds, including adjustments and redemption statuses, indicating a mixed sentiment in the market for these financial instruments [1][3][5]. Summary by Categories Convertible Bond Proposals - Jingneng Convertible Bond has proposed a downward adjustment [1]. - Jizhi, Hangyu, and Songlin Convertible Bonds will not be forcibly redeemed [1]. - Aowei, Wei22, and Hengyi Convertible Bonds will not undergo downward adjustments [1]. - Qizhong Convertible Bond is set for subscription on November 3 [1]. - Funi Convertible Bond has been listed [1]. Current Prices and Redemption Information - The current price of Montai Convertible Bond is 141.799, with a redemption price of 101.190, and the last trading day is October 24, 2025 [3]. - New23 Convertible Bond is priced at 144.636, with a redemption price of 100.219, and the last trading day is also October 24, 2025 [3]. - Enjie Convertible Bond has a current price of 127.714 and a redemption price of 101.440, with the last trading day on October 27, 2025 [3]. - Zshi Convertible Bond is priced at 137.805, with a redemption price of 100.190, and the last trading day is October 29, 2025 [3]. - Zchang Convertible Bond has a current price of 117.358, with a redemption price of 101.151, and the last trading day is October 29, 2025 [3]. Market Capitalization and Conversion Ratios - The remaining scale of Zshi Convertible Bond is 0.598 billion, with a market cap ratio of 0.96% [3]. - The remaining scale of Zchang Convertible Bond is 0.638 billion, with a market cap ratio of 1.83% [3]. - The remaining scale of Niutai Convertible Bond is 0.745 billion, with a market cap ratio of 2.71% [3]. - The remaining scale of Chunqiu Convertible Bond is 0.653 billion, with a market cap ratio of 0.98% [3]. - The remaining scale of Sheng24 Convertible Bond is 10.035 billion, with a market cap ratio of 6.24% [3].