文 |零售圈 导语： 回顾刚过去的2025年，零售行业的大规模并购交易，几乎从未停歇。这一系列并购事件不仅改变了零售 行业的格局，也揭示了行业内部的深刻变革——零售行业正在经历新一轮"资本大洗牌"。 在这一年里，我们看到头部企业纷纷"做减法"，剥离非核心资产以聚焦主业，如阿里巴巴彻底退出银泰 百货与高鑫零售，同时也见证了不少巨头"做加法"，通过并购扩充品牌矩阵、切入新赛道，如普拉达收 购范思哲构建奢牌三角，玛氏以超350亿美元吞下品客母公司，组建零食帝国。 私募资本成为了关键推手，KKR、博裕、CPE源峰等机构频繁出手，以资本赋能实体，推动品牌转型与 扩张。而本土消费品牌如大窑汽水、蜜雪冰城，则通过引入资本或收购细分赛道玩家，加速全国化与生 态化布局。 从国际食品巨头的强强联合，到本土品牌的资本化转身；从互联网巨头实体布局的深化，到私募基金对 传统业态的焕新改造，这些交易背后，是零售业面对渠道变迁、消费分级与竞争全球化所做出的集体回 应。 无论是德弘资本对高鑫零售的"买手制"改造，还是京东跨洲收购德国Ceconomy的出海雄心，都标志着 行业正从规模扩张走向精益运营，从流量争夺转向供应链与品牌价值的深耕，他们 ...

最近好多朋友追着问我，帮主，海南封关到底是啥意思？是不是以后去海南得办通行证，跟去港澳一 样？还有人说这就是个炒房噱头，到底值不值得关注？作为做了20年财经记者、一直盯着中长线的投资 者，今天我跟大伙好好拆解拆解，这次海南封关到底藏着哪些真机遇，咱们普通人又该怎么抓。 第二个机遇，是医疗旅游和高端消费的"品质升级"。喜欢旅游的朋友可能已经发现，现在去海南的国际 航班越来越多了，因为海南已经对85个国家免签。封关后，这个优势会更明显，而且博鳌乐城国际医疗 旅游先行区的政策更给力了，国外已经上市、国内还没获批的新药和医疗器械，在这儿就能直接用。我 认识的一个做康养产业的朋友，已经在乐城布局了高端体检中心，他说以前客户要去国外做的特殊治 疗，现在在海南就能实现，而且进口医疗设备免税，成本降了，价格也更亲民。另外，岛内居民以后还 能免税买部分进口日用品，离岛免税的品类也会更丰富，这会让海南从单纯的度假胜地，变成集旅游、 康养、高品质消费于一体的目的地，相关的高端酒店、特色康养机构、免税商业运营方，都是值得长期 关注的。 第三个机遇，是高端产业和跨境金融的"集聚效应"。做中长线投资，最看重的就是产业集聚带来的长期 价值 ...

报告导读： 2025 年中央经济工作会议成功举办，《求是》杂志发表重磅文章《扩大内需 是战略之举》，高层密集发声将消费提升至经济增长"持久动力"与"稳定锚"的核心高度。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 锚定战略基点，激活内需潜能——评2025年中央经济工作会议与《扩大内需是战略之举》； 报告日期：2025.12.17 报告作者： 訾猛（分析师），登记编号：S0880513120002 邱苗（分析师），登记编号：S0880521050001 12 月 10 日至 11 日，中央经济工作会议在北京成功举行，会议将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"放在 2026 年八项重点任务之首。 会议提到，坚持内 需主导，建设强大国内市场；深入实施提振消费专项行动，实施城乡居民增收计划；扩大优质商品供给；优化"两新"政策实施；清理消费领域不合理限制措 施，释放服务消费潜力。 12 月 15 日，《求是》杂志发表重磅文章《扩大内需是战略之举》。 文章指出，实施扩大内需战略，是保持我国经济长期持续健康发展的需要，也是满足人 民日益增长的美好生活的需要；要加快补上内需特别是消费短板，使内需成为拉动经济增 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the consumption sector in 2026, suggesting investment opportunities in this area [5][7]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference has prioritized "domestic demand-led growth and building a strong domestic market" as a key focus for 2026, emphasizing the importance of boosting consumption and increasing urban and rural incomes [5][6]. - The article in "Qiushi" magazine highlights that expanding domestic demand is essential for long-term economic health and meeting the needs of the population, with a focus on accelerating domestic demand, particularly consumption [6][7]. - The emphasis on consumption as a core growth driver reflects a strategic approach to leverage China's large market for sustainable growth, indicating continued policy support for consumption [7][8]. Summary by Sections - **Domestic Demand Strategy**: The report outlines that the strategy to expand domestic demand is crucial for maintaining long-term economic growth and addressing the needs of the population, with a focus on consumption as the main driver [6][7]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The report identifies three key areas for investment recovery in 2026: 1. **Services**: Highlighted as a priority area with strong policy support and high demand elasticity, particularly in elderly care, education, healthcare, and culture [8]. 2. **Mass Products**: Expected to see stable recovery due to bottom stabilization, structural optimization, and improved supply-demand dynamics, with strong demand for food and daily goods [8]. 3. **High-end Consumption**: Driven by real estate and capital market wealth effects, with structural opportunities in sectors like Chinese baijiu, duty-free, and high-end household appliances [9].

Group 1 - Bernard Arnault, the CEO of LVMH, has been visiting China for three consecutive years, indicating the importance of the Chinese market for luxury brands [3] - LVMH, which owns brands like Louis Vuitton, Dior, and Tiffany, is facing challenges as the global luxury market is cooling down, with a projected decline in the number of luxury consumers from 400 million in 2022 to 350 million by the end of 2024 [3][4] - The luxury goods market is expected to see a total consumption of approximately €1.48 trillion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1%-3% [3] Group 2 - LVMH's revenue is projected to decline by 4% year-on-year to €39.81 billion in the first half of 2025, with net profit decreasing by 22% to €5.69 billion [3] - There is a growing interest among Chinese consumers in local brands, with LVMH planning to continue investing in China despite the market slowdown [4] - The overlap in consumer demographics between local brand Lao Pu Huang Jin and international luxury brands like LV and Cartier is significant, with a 77.3% overlap rate [4]

Group 1: Inflation Trends - The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. rose by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly exceeding expectations of 2.6%, and up from the previous value of 2.4% [1][2] - The core CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, meeting expectations but higher than the previous value of 2.8% [1][2] - The overall CPI data indicates a subtle resurgence of inflationary pressures, prompting a reassessment of market expectations regarding inflation [2] Group 2: Housing Market - The housing index increased by 0.2% in June, contributing significantly to the overall index rise [3] - Housing is viewed as a necessity with stable demand, showcasing strong anti-inflation properties [3] - Real estate investments, particularly Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), are expected to provide considerable returns due to stable rental income and property appreciation potential [3] Group 3: Energy Sector - The energy index rose by 0.9% in June, with gasoline prices increasing by 1.0% [4] - Over the past year, the energy index has decreased by 0.8%, with gasoline prices down by 8.3% [4] - Long-term opportunities are anticipated in the clean energy sector, driven by increasing global demand for renewable energy sources [4] Group 4: Food Industry - The food index rose by 0.3% in June, with household and away-from-home food prices increasing by 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively [5] - The food sector is characterized by rigid demand, less affected by economic cycles, and is experiencing a shift towards higher quality and safety standards [5] - Companies with brand advantages and those focusing on organic and health food production are expected to thrive in the competitive landscape [5] Group 5: Non-Food and Non-Energy Sectors - The index excluding food and energy rose by 0.2% in June, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [6] - Sectors such as home furnishings, healthcare, and entertainment are showing upward trends, while used and new vehicle prices are declining [6] - The healthcare sector remains attractive due to stable demand, especially for innovative pharmaceutical companies and high-end medical service providers [6]