今日早参 2026 年 2 月 25 日 庄汀洲 石油与化工行业首席研究员 座机：010-56793939 邮箱：zhuangtingzhou@htsc.com 刘俊 电力设备与新能源行业首席研究员 座机：85293275834 邮箱：karlliu@htsc.com 边文姣 电力设备与新能源行业联席首席研究 员 座机：0755-82776411 邮箱：bianwenjiao@htsc.com 今日热点 基础化工：美将磷系农资列入战略资源影响深远 2026 年 2 月 18 日，特朗普政府援引《国防生产法》发布行政令，正式将磷 元素与草甘膦除草剂列为美国战略资源，以保障国内供应链安全。全球近几 年 80%的磷资源下游用于磷肥，草甘膦由于转基因抗性种子需求成为全球第 一大除草剂，二者是全球农资的核心环节。据 USGS，2025 年美国磷矿石 进口依存度 16%，主要来自秘鲁及摩洛哥。美国草甘膦本土产能充足，但考 虑厂商到对欧洲及南美的供应，仍需进口中国产草甘膦。相对而言，中国磷 矿石自给率较高，而草甘膦净出口且产能略过剩。我们认为，磷系农资列入 战略物资因美国对二者供应稳定性的强调，短期在粮价低迷需求不振背景 ...

Group 1: Food and Beverage Industry - The core conclusion indicates that high-end consumption is recovering first, driven by wealth effects from asset price appreciation and improved corporate earnings, with signs of recovery in luxury goods, high-end shopping centers, duty-free, and gaming sectors starting from Q3 2025 [1][5] - Investment recommendations suggest selecting high-quality targets that combine both beta and alpha, with a focus on companies like China Resources Mixc Lifestyle, Samsonite, Galaxy Entertainment, and Sands China [1][5] Group 2: Non-Banking Financial Sector - The report discusses the optimization of refinancing mechanisms by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, which aims to enhance the flexibility and efficiency of refinancing for high-quality listed companies, particularly in new industries and technologies [6][7] - It highlights that the new policies will support quality companies in utilizing funds for synergistic new industries and technologies, thereby enhancing the overall quality of refinancing business [6][7] - Investment suggestions indicate that the optimized refinancing measures will open up further opportunities for leading investment banks, enhancing their revenue growth and overall profitability in the refinancing business [8]

Core Insights - The consumer industry is at a critical turning point, presenting significant investment opportunities under the "expanding domestic demand" policy [1][6] - The consumer sector has experienced nearly five years of decline, but this may lead to high-return investment opportunities as market sentiment is low [3][8] - The recovery of the consumer sector is primarily dependent on improvements in corporate profits and increases in household income, with a predicted resurgence in investment opportunities by 2026 [3][8] Policy Drivers - The core logic for the anticipated recovery is driven by policy changes, particularly the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" released in March 2025, which emphasizes expanding residents' property income [3][8] - The plan aims to stabilize the real estate and stock markets to create a wealth effect that will subsequently boost consumption [3][8] Investment Directions - The first investment focus is on the recovery of high-end consumption, with luxury goods, duty-free shopping, high-end hotels, and gambling expected to see a turning point starting in Q3 2025 [4][9] - The second focus is on service consumption improvement, shifting from goods consumption to services, with promising sectors including dining, travel, and tourism expected to show significant growth potential in 2026 [4][10] - The third area of interest is in new consumption trends, which are characterized by rapid iteration and volatility, necessitating dynamic tracking and selective stock picking [4][10]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a gradual recovery in high-end consumption in China since Q3 2025, driven by the wealth effect from rising stock markets, as evidenced by the performance of international luxury brands and the recovery of high-end shopping malls [1] Group 1: High-End Consumption Recovery - High-end consumption is expected to recover in 2026, with the timing and intensity of recovery varying by category, influenced by factors such as the proportion of VIC (Very Important Customer) clientele, the order of consumption based on wealth increase, the degree of necessity, and supply elasticity [1] - Categories with strong initial demand driven by social status and identity needs are likely to recover first, while those with a higher proportion of VIC clientele and good supply dynamics will show more sustained recovery [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that categories with strong social demand and high elasticity will benefit from the ongoing wealth effect, with those featuring more discretionary attributes expected to exhibit greater elasticity [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the consumption industry is expected to show a moderate recovery in 2026, driven by service consumption and resilient essential consumption, with a focus on CPI-driven recovery opportunities [1][2] - In 2025, the consumption industry demonstrated characteristics of stabilization, structural optimization, and confidence restoration, supported by a 5.4% year-on-year growth in service consumption from January to November [2][3] - The shift in China's economic growth drivers from "goods consumption" to "service consumption" is anticipated, with recovery elasticity ranking as "service industry > mass goods > high-end consumption" [3] Group 2 - New consumption opportunities are emerging due to supply-side challenges like brand aging and product homogeneity, alongside demand-side changes such as generational shifts and the rise of Generation Z as a key consumer group [4] - The supply side is focusing on innovation through product rejuvenation and leveraging new channels for enhanced efficiency, while the demand side is driven by the unique consumption values of Generation Z, who are willing to pay for diverse and niche products [4]

Core Insights - The consumption industry in 2025 shows signs of stabilization and recovery, characterized by structural optimization and confidence restoration, primarily driven by the recovery of service consumption and the resilience of essential consumption [1] Group 1: 2025 Consumption Industry Overview - Economic weakness and external shocks have significantly impacted the consumption industry, with core indicators such as retail sales and consumer confidence reaching a bottom in Q4 2025 [1] - Service consumption (cultural entertainment, dining, education) grew by 5.4% year-on-year from January to November, highlighting its role as a core driver of industry recovery [1] - Essential consumption, particularly in food and daily necessities, has shown strong resilience, contributing to the overall recovery of the industry [1] Group 2: 2026 Consumption Recovery Direction - The growth driver for the Chinese economy is shifting from "goods consumption" to "service consumption," with recovery elasticity in the consumption market dependent on price (CPI-driven) [2] - Service industry is expected to be the core engine of recovery, benefiting from low supply elasticity and strong demand rigidity, with specific focus on cultural tourism, health services, and education services [2] - Essential goods, such as food and daily necessities, possess strong demand rigidity and high consumption frequency, making them capable of cost transfer during CPI recovery [2] - High-end consumption sectors, including premium liquor, duty-free goods, and luxury items, are more influenced by economic expectations and wealth effects, requiring a complete recovery chain to see demand release [2] Group 3: New Consumption Trends - The rise of new consumption is driven by supply-side factors such as brand and product aging, alongside demand-side changes including demographic shifts and evolving consumer preferences, particularly among Generation Z [3] - Traditional industries face challenges of brand aging and product homogeneity, prompting innovation and upgrades, with a focus on product rebranding and leveraging new channels for product innovation [3] - Generation Z is emerging as a key consumer group, characterized by unique consumption values and a willingness to pay for diverse and niche products, leading to a more diversified market supply [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Emphasis on recovery opportunities driven by CPI, with a recovery elasticity ranking of service industry > essential goods > high-end consumption [4] - Attention to structural opportunities arising from new consumption growth trajectories [4]

Core Insights - The retail industry experienced a significant wave of mergers and acquisitions in 2025, indicating a major capital reshuffle within the sector [1][27] - Major companies are either divesting non-core assets to focus on their main businesses or acquiring new brands to expand their portfolios [1][27] - Private equity firms are playing a crucial role in driving brand transformation and expansion in the retail sector [1][27] Group 1: Major Mergers and Acquisitions - Alibaba divested its stake in Suning and Intime Retail, marking a strategic shift to optimize resource allocation [3][26] - Mars, Incorporated completed the acquisition of Kellanova for approximately $35.9 billion, creating a global snack empire [5][7] - KKR acquired an 85% stake in Vista International, which is linked to the domestic beverage brand Da Yao, enhancing its control over the Chinese soda market [9][10] Group 2: Strategic Adjustments and Performance - After KKR's acquisition, Gao Xin Retail reported a revenue of 71.55 billion yuan, with a net profit of 386 million yuan, marking a turnaround from previous losses [4] - The acquisition of Kellanova by Mars is one of the largest in the packaged food sector in the last decade, highlighting the trend of consolidation among food giants [7][8] - CPE Yuanfeng's acquisition of Burger King China aims to accelerate local expansion with a commitment to invest $350 million [16][17] Group 3: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The retail sector is shifting from scale expansion to lean operations, focusing on supply chain and brand value [2][27] - The relationship between brands and capital is evolving from mere financial support to active operational involvement, indicating a search for sustainable growth [27] - The ongoing mergers and acquisitions signal a re-evaluation of the value of physical retail, with supply chain and product strength becoming central to competition [27]

Core Insights - The recent Hainan customs closure is not a ban on the island but a strategic opening, allowing for freer trade and investment while maintaining regulatory oversight on the mainland [3][7] - The expansion of Hainan's zero-tariff list from 1,900 to 6,600 items, covering 74% of all goods, represents a significant opportunity for long-term investment [3][4] Group 1: Trade Processing and Cross-Border Services - The dual benefits of trade processing and cross-border services are highlighted, with companies now able to repair medical equipment more efficiently, reducing costs and time significantly [4] - The influx of zero-tariff raw materials at Yangpu Port indicates a revitalization of the entire supply chain, making logistics and supply chain management sectors attractive for long-term investment [4] Group 2: Medical Tourism and High-End Consumption - Hainan's increasing international flight options and visa-free access for 85 countries enhance its appeal as a medical tourism destination, particularly with the availability of new medical technologies [5] - The introduction of tax exemptions for imported medical equipment and consumer goods will transform Hainan into a hub for high-quality tourism and consumption, benefiting related sectors such as high-end hotels and wellness facilities [5] Group 3: High-End Industries and Cross-Border Finance - The establishment of favorable tax rates for businesses and high-end talent in Hainan is attracting major companies, particularly in digital economy and biomedicine sectors [6] - The liberalization of cross-border capital flows facilitates easier financing and trade settlements, creating investment opportunities in supporting industries such as software and research services [6] Group 4: Real Estate and Long-Term Investment Strategy - The real estate market in Hainan remains tightly regulated, and the focus should shift from short-term property speculation to long-term investments in rental markets and services that support industrial development [6][7] - The gradual release of benefits from the Hainan customs closure suggests a long-term investment horizon, making it suitable for investors looking for sustainable growth rather than quick profits [7]

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a strategic move to ensure long-term economic growth and meet the rising living standards of the population [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Economic Strategy - The conference prioritizes "domestic demand as the main driver" and aims to build a strong domestic market as the top task for 2026 [1]. - Key actions include implementing special measures to boost consumption, increasing urban and rural residents' income, expanding the supply of quality goods, optimizing the implementation of new policies, and removing unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector to unleash service consumption potential [1]. Consumption Focus - The article from "Qiushi" magazine highlights that the strategy to expand domestic demand is essential for maintaining sustainable economic development and fulfilling the people's growing needs for a better life [1][2]. - The emphasis on consumption as a "lasting driver" and "stabilizing anchor" indicates a long-term approach to economic growth, especially in the context of global economic recovery challenges and external demand fluctuations [2]. Investment Opportunities - The outlook for the consumption sector in 2026 is positive, with expectations of a moderate recovery in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which will provide price support [2]. - The recovery elasticity is expected to rank as follows: 1. Service industry: Highlighted as a key area for consumption recovery, with strong policy support and high demand elasticity, particularly in sectors like elderly care, education, healthcare, and cultural sports [2]. 2. Mass consumer goods: Anticipated to stabilize and recover due to improved supply and demand dynamics, with strong demand for food and daily necessities [2]. 3. High-end consumption: Although recovery elasticity is weaker, there are structural opportunities driven by real estate and capital market wealth effects, with high-end liquor, duty-free goods, and premium home appliances being noteworthy [2].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the consumption sector in 2026, suggesting investment opportunities in this area [5][7]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference has prioritized "domestic demand-led growth and building a strong domestic market" as a key focus for 2026, emphasizing the importance of boosting consumption and increasing urban and rural incomes [5][6]. - The article in "Qiushi" magazine highlights that expanding domestic demand is essential for long-term economic health and meeting the needs of the population, with a focus on accelerating domestic demand, particularly consumption [6][7]. - The emphasis on consumption as a core growth driver reflects a strategic approach to leverage China's large market for sustainable growth, indicating continued policy support for consumption [7][8]. Summary by Sections - **Domestic Demand Strategy**: The report outlines that the strategy to expand domestic demand is crucial for maintaining long-term economic growth and addressing the needs of the population, with a focus on consumption as the main driver [6][7]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The report identifies three key areas for investment recovery in 2026: 1. **Services**: Highlighted as a priority area with strong policy support and high demand elasticity, particularly in elderly care, education, healthcare, and culture [8]. 2. **Mass Products**: Expected to see stable recovery due to bottom stabilization, structural optimization, and improved supply-demand dynamics, with strong demand for food and daily goods [8]. 3. **High-end Consumption**: Driven by real estate and capital market wealth effects, with structural opportunities in sectors like Chinese baijiu, duty-free, and high-end household appliances [9].