开源证券发布研报称，维持心动公司(02400)"买入"评级，心动公司宣布港元回购计划，展现发展信 心。核心游戏《心动小镇》及《火炬之光：无限》通过新活动、IP联动与赛季更新驱动流水增长，储备 新作《RO2》也受关注。公司预计TapTap平台有望借助多款高关注度游戏上线实现用户拓展，并通过广 告算法优化与ADN业务驱动增长，看好其游戏与平台业务的长期潜力。 1月5日，公司公告拟在5个月内回购不超过4亿港元股份，彰显长期发展信心。寒假、春节旺季将至，核 心产品《心动小镇》国内流水有望提升.《心动小镇》国际服官宣1月8日上线并将联动全球知名IP《小 马宝莉》，其全球预约人数已超百万;储备游戏《仙境传说RO：守护永恒的爱2》(简称《RO2》)1月17 日线下测试；该行看好老游戏节庆活动、区域拓展及新游上线驱动游戏增长。 2026年待上线高关注度手游、端游众多，有望助TapTap拓圈，叠加广告算法持续改进，TapTap有望维持 高增。该行亦看好基于TapTap领先算法布局的ADN业务的广阔空间。基于《伊瑟》国服上线后表现， 该行下调2025-2027年归母净利润预测至15.07/20.06/23.87(前值17.10/ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company announced a share buyback of up to HKD 400 million over five months, reflecting confidence in long-term development [5] - The upcoming holiday season is expected to boost revenue for the core product "Heart Town," with the international version set to launch on January 8, 2026, and has already garnered over one million global pre-registrations [5] - The company is optimistic about growth driven by festive events, regional expansion, and new game launches, with several high-profile mobile and PC games expected to launch in 2026 [5] - The performance of the game "Iser" in the domestic market has led to a downward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [5] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue projections are as follows: - 2023: HKD 3,389 million - 2024: HKD 5,012 million - 2025: HKD 6,353 million - 2026: HKD 7,620 million - 2027: HKD 8,441 million - Year-over-year growth rates for revenue are projected at: - 2024: 47.9% - 2025: 26.7% - 2026: 20.0% - 2027: 10.8% [8] - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023: -HKD 554 million - 2024: HKD 812 million - 2025: HKD 1,507 million - 2026: HKD 2,006 million - 2027: HKD 2,387 million - Year-over-year growth rates for net profit are projected at: - 2024: 1077.3% - 2025: 85.7% - 2026: 33.2% - 2027: 19.0% [8] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected as follows: - 2025: 20.8 - 2026: 15.6 - 2027: 13.1 [8]

Core Viewpoint - Shenwan Hongyuan initiates coverage on Xindong Company (02400) with a "Buy" rating, projecting revenue growth from 2025 to 2027 at 28%/23%/14% and adjusted net profit growth at 94%/31%/24% [1] Group 1: Game Promotion and TapTap's Value - The gaming industry is experiencing a recovery in license supply, leading to increased sales expense ratios, with TapTap emerging as a significant promotional channel [1] - TapTap's online promotion service revenue for the first half of 2025 is estimated at 976 million, capturing approximately 3.27% of the mobile game advertising market [1] - TapTap offers low or no revenue sharing, making it developer-friendly, and has become a vital promotional channel for small and independent games due to its specialized and professional nature [1] Group 2: Growth Drivers for TapTap - The number of game licenses issued in China increased by 25% year-on-year, with a total of 1,195 licenses from January to September 2025, enhancing promotional demand [2] - TapTap has over 240,000 registered developers and 300,000 games launched, with an average monthly active user count of 43.6 million in the first half of 2025 [2] - AI technology is expected to empower game development, benefiting TapTap by enhancing content supply and promoting a more equitable creative environment [2] Group 3: Validation of Xindong's Self-Developed Game Capabilities - The company has successfully validated its strategic adjustments since 2022, focusing on core product categories and enhancing efficiency [3] - Successful titles like "Torchlight" and "Muffin" demonstrate the company's ability to develop enduring games through resource focus and continuous updates [3] - Upcoming game releases, including the strategy card game "Iser" and the open-world MMO "Ragnarok RO: Guardians of Eternal Love 2," indicate a strong pipeline for future growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the growth potential of TapTap platform driven by the resumption of game license approvals and AI-enabled game development, alongside the strategic adjustments in the company's self-developed game pipeline [1][2]. Group 1: TapTap Platform Value - TapTap has become a significant channel for game promotion, with online promotion service revenue reaching 976 million in the first half of 2025, capturing approximately 3.27% of the mobile game advertising market [1]. - The platform offers low or no revenue sharing, making it friendly for small and independent developers, and has emerged as a vital promotional channel due to the fragmentation of user time and the rise of vertical communities [1]. - TapTap provides comprehensive services including analysis, testing, and marketing promotion, enhancing its value to developers [1]. Group 2: Growth Drivers for TapTap - The developer-user flywheel effect is established, with over 240,000 developers and 300,000 games launched, and an average monthly active user (MAU) of 43.6 million in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 37% in user advertising ARPU [2]. - The total number of game licenses issued in 2025 reached 1,195, a 25% year-on-year increase, boosting the demand for promotion [2]. - The strategic expansion into multi-platform and international markets, along with AI-enabled game development, is expected to enhance TapTap's revenue potential, with projections estimating revenue could reach 5 billion by 2030 [2]. Group 3: Self-Developed Game Capabilities - The self-developed game strategy has shown positive results since 2024, with a focus on core categories and efficient resource allocation, leading to successful titles like "Torchlight" and "Muffin" [3]. - The company has demonstrated the ability to develop enduring games through focused resources, continuous optimization, and frequent updates, with successful overseas contributions [3]. - Future game pipeline includes promising titles such as the strategy card game "Ither" and the open-world MMO "Ragnarok RO: Guardians of Eternal Love 2," indicating a solid reserve of upcoming products [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company has shown significant growth in its mid-year performance, driven by new game releases and improvements in user engagement on the TapTap platform, leading to an optimistic outlook for future growth [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.082 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39% [1]. - Adjusted profit reached 853 million yuan, up 206% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 755 million yuan, reflecting a 268% increase [1]. - The gross margin improved by 6 percentage points to 73%, primarily due to the increased share of net revenue from the overseas version of "初心服" [1]. Group 2: Game Performance and Growth Drivers - Game revenue for H1 2025 was 2.1 billion yuan, also up 39% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 68% [1]. - The average monthly active users for online games reached 11.41 million, a 20% increase year-on-year, while average monthly paying users grew by 21% to 1.32 million [1]. - The game "心动小镇" has maintained player interest through content updates, ranking significantly in iOS sales charts [1]. Group 3: Future Growth Potential - The company is expected to leverage long-term operations to create more enduring games, with plans for the international launch of "伊瑟" and the upcoming release of "仙境传说RO：守护永恒的爱2" [2]. - TapTap's revenue for H1 2025 was 1.01 billion yuan, a 38% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 84% [2]. - The introduction of AI game recommendation tools and the expansion into PC and mini-games are anticipated to sustain high revenue growth for TapTap [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4][11] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for H1 2025, with revenue reaching 3.082 billion HKD, up 39% year-on-year, and adjusted profit at 853 million HKD, up 206% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 755 million HKD, reflecting a 268% increase year-on-year. This growth is attributed to the strong performance of new games and improvements in the TapTap platform [4][5][6] - The company is optimistic about the growth potential of new games and the TapTap platform, with expectations for continued revenue growth driven by upcoming game launches and enhancements in user engagement [4][5][6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - For the fiscal year 2025, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 6.573 billion HKD, with a year-on-year growth of 31.1%. The net profit is expected to be 1.710 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 110.8%. The gross margin is projected to be 73%, and the net margin is expected to reach 26% [7] - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is estimated at 21.3 times, with projections for 2026 and 2027 at 15.5 and 13.1 times, respectively [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of Xindong Company, with a mid-year revenue forecast of at least 3.05 billion yuan (approximately +37% year-on-year) and a net profit of at least 790 million yuan (approximately +215% year-on-year) for the first half of 2025, exceeding expectations [1] Group 2 - The self-developed games such as "Ragnarok M: Original Server," "Xindong Town," and "Torchlight: Infinite" have shown strong performance, driving revenue and gross margin increases [1] - The TapTap app maintains stable monthly active users (MAU) year-on-year, with improvements in advertising algorithms and user engagement contributing to revenue and profit growth [1] Group 3 - The new game "Xindong Town" achieved a top 10 ranking in sales following its anniversary version launch on July 17, marking a new high for the year; the overseas version of "Etheria: Restart" entered the top 50 in the U.S. sales chart, demonstrating strong performance [1] - The domestic version of "Etheria" is scheduled for full platform testing on September 25, expected to contribute to new user growth; Xindong's next-generation self-developed game "Ragnarok RO: Guardian of Eternal Love 2" will begin its first test on TapTap in December, supporting the company's long-term growth [1] - TapTap has significantly increased the number of PC games released this year, focusing on the launch and operation of the PC version, indicating growth potential [1] Group 4 - Xindong announced the acquisition of a 5.3% stake in MiAO for $14 million; MiAO is a startup founded by former Giant CEO Wu Meng, with a team experienced in high DAU social games [2]

Group 1 - The company expects a significant increase in H1 2025 performance, with revenue projected to be no less than 3.05 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 37%, and net profit expected to be no less than 790 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 215% [1] - The strong year-on-year growth is primarily driven by the performance of self-developed games such as "Ragnarok M: Beginning Server," "Heart Town," and "Torchlight: Infinite," which have boosted revenue and improved gross margins [1] - TapTap's revenue and profit continue to grow due to improvements in advertising algorithms and increased user engagement, despite stable average monthly active users [1] Group 2 - The game "Yise" launched its international version on June 5, entering the top 50 best-selling games in 30 countries and regions, with expected revenue exceeding 100 million yuan in the first month [2] - "Heart Town" celebrated its anniversary with events and saw its iPhone game ranking rise to 7th place, with plans for an international version launch in H2 2025, potentially bringing significant revenue increments [2] - The company is leveraging its extensive experience in developing and operating multiple products based on the same IP, with "Guarding Eternal Love 2" expected to be a key long-term product driving growth [2] Group 3 - The TapTap game conference showcased 50 new game updates, including 13 PC games, marking a diversification in the platform's offerings [3] - The PC version of TapTap has officially launched, allowing users to purchase, download, and install PC games, with over 100 top games currently available [3] - The PC version operates on a no-revenue-sharing model, which may further expand growth opportunities for the platform [3]

Core Viewpoint - Xindong Company (02400.HK) anticipates significant revenue and profit growth for the first half of 2025, driven by successful game operations and the performance of the TapTap platform [1][3][22]. Financial Performance - Expected revenue for H1 2025 is at least RMB 30.5 billion, a 37% increase from RMB 22.2 billion in the same period last year [1]. - Projected net profit is at least RMB 7.9 billion, representing a 215% year-on-year growth [1]. Game Performance - Key contributors to revenue growth include self-developed games such as "Ragnarok M: Beginner's Server," "Xindong Town," and "Torchlight: Infinite" [3][10]. - "Ragnarok M: Beginner's Server" simplifies the original game's complex systems, appealing to casual players [3]. - "Xindong Town" is a 3D social simulation game that emphasizes leisurely gameplay and has maintained a stable position in the iOS sales rankings [5][6]. - "Torchlight: Infinite," launched on May 10, 2023, has shown strong performance, reaching the top of the iOS free charts and peaking at 11th in sales [8][10]. New Game Releases - The new RPG "Ether: Reboot Day" has topped the iOS free charts in several Southeast Asian countries and is set for a domestic launch on September 25, 2023 [11][14]. - "Xindong Town" is expected to enter international markets in Q4 2025, while "Ragnarok RO: Guardian of Eternal Love 2" is planned for 2026 [14]. TapTap Platform Growth - The TapTap platform has seen continuous revenue and profit growth, attributed to improved advertising algorithms and user engagement, despite stable monthly active users [16]. Strategic Investments - Xindong plans to acquire a 5.3% stake in game company MiAO for $14 million, valuing MiAO at approximately $264 million [17][19]. - MiAO focuses on developing games that integrate social elements, aiming to enhance player connections [19][20]. Company Outlook - Xindong has successfully turned around its financial performance, achieving profitability and stable cash flow, positioning itself for future growth [22][23].

Group 1 - TapTap held its 2025 game release conference, showcasing a record 50 new game updates, including 45 unreleased titles and 13 PC games [1] - The introduction of PC games at the conference marks a significant expansion for TapTap, with titles like "Mingmo: Yuanshu" and "Zongmen Qiyuan" featured [1] - TapTap's PC version has been launched, allowing users to purchase and download over 100 top games without revenue sharing, which is expected to enhance growth potential [1] Group 2 - The self-developed game "Yise" has been successful in international markets, ranking in the top 50 in over 30 countries, with a domestic launch scheduled for September 25 [2] - "Xindong Xiaozhen" is set to celebrate its anniversary with a collaboration event, and its international version is anticipated to launch in late 2025, potentially increasing revenue [2] - The upcoming MMORPG "Xianjing Chuanqi RO: Shouhu Yongheng de Ai 2" is expected to leverage the established IP and the company's experience to perform well in the global market [2]