短剧行业的市场规模和增长率如何？ 短剧：高速增长的内容赛道 20250923 摘要 2024 年短剧行业总收入达 500 亿元，超电影票房，预计未来几年增速 保持 30%以上，增长迅速，但目前大部分流水仍被平台赚取，行业盈利 模式仍在探索中。 短剧商业模式由付费（IAP）转向免费（AA），免费短剧依赖广告变现， 需平台算法分发以提高用户留存，对情节质量要求更高，以吸引用户持 续观看。 制作公司与平台关系从疏离走向紧密，双方共同承担买量推广和内容分 发责任，以提高用户留存和广告变现，合作模式发生显著变化。 短剧情节质量直接影响变现能力，免费短剧更注重吸引力和粘性，以确 保用户长时间停留并增加广告加载量，实现更好的商业变现效果。 短剧行业呈现付费与免费双足鼎立趋势，免费短剧依赖爽文吸引用户， 付费短剧则由优质影视公司制作精良内容，直接向用户收费。 传统影视公司如博纳影业、欢瑞世纪等尝试制作短剧及互动产品，直接 向 C 端用户变现，并积极拥抱 AI 技术以降低成本、提高效率。 中文在线通过海外并购和本地化运营，其短剧产品 RealShort 在美国 iOS 免费应用榜上名列前茅，用户规模持续增长，盈利空间逐步释放。 ...

Group 1 - The gaming sector is experiencing fluctuations, with the gaming ETF (159869) down nearly 1.5% in early trading on September 23, but has seen a net inflow of 898 million yuan over the past five trading days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The interactive film game "Shengshi Tianxia" has surpassed one million units in total sales across all platforms, including overseas, as of September 22, with sales revenue exceeding 39 million yuan based on the official price of 39 yuan per unit [1] - The mobile version of "Shengshi Tianxia" has consistently ranked first on the Apple iOS entertainment paid chart since its launch on September 9, and its popularity is reflected in over 260 million views of related topics on Xiaohongshu [1] Group 2 - "Shengshi Tianxia" is inspired by the Tang Dynasty and produced by NewOneStudio, which previously created the successful interactive film game "Invisible Guardian" in 2019, showcasing China's cultural advantages in the gaming industry [2] - The game's detailed representation of Tang Dynasty costumes and props highlights the maturity of China's game production capabilities, contributing to the industry's growth [2] - The gaming sector is undergoing transformations driven by AI, content, and commercialization models, with the gaming ETF (159869) tracking the performance of A-share listed companies in the animation and gaming industry, presenting potential investment opportunities [2]

这几年游戏 圈的真人互动影游在男频、女频上发展可谓相当不均衡。 男频这边，从《隐形守护者》开疆拓土，让大家意识到"互动+叙事"有市场；到《完蛋！我被美女包围了！》横空出世，"美女恋爱like"游戏一路火到 2025，把校园恋爱、逆袭修仙、历史权谋全都卷过一遍，结果呢？擦边泛滥、换皮扎堆，网感美女们排列组合在玩家的第一视角晃悠，尺度直逼黄油—— 如今彻底成了红海。 但另一边的女频，几乎是一片空白。只有一些毫无水花、连发售日未定的小作（比如《嘶哈，这个男人有点帅》）。直到《女王的游戏：盛世天下》（下 文简称《盛世天下》）上线，《盛世天下》《隐形守护者》捆绑包（单买折后39、合买42）冲上Steam中国区热销榜最高第八，B站9.5、小黑盒8.5、 Taptap8.7、Steam"特别好评"，一度还上冲上App store大陆和港台区付费榜榜首，算是第一次把女频互动影游做成了破圈产品。 《盛世天下》分为《媚娘篇》和《女帝篇》两部，玩家将扮演以武则天为原型的角色，从初入宫廷的才人逐步成长为女皇，面临数百个分支选择，每个决 定影响角色命运和剧情走向，包含数十种结局——嗯，味儿很正，看了那么多遍《甄嬛传》，终于轮到我"步步 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gaming sector continues to show strong performance, with significant gains in stock prices and a robust increase in game approvals, indicating a positive outlook for the industry. Group 1: Stock Performance - The gaming sector saw notable stock price increases, with companies like Xinghui Entertainment and Perfect World hitting the daily limit up, while others like 37 Interactive Entertainment and Giant Network also experienced gains [1] - The gaming ETF rose over 4%, with the Huatai-PB gaming ETF increasing by 3.5%, and both ETFs showing over 58% growth year-to-date [2][4] Group 2: Game Approvals and Market Growth - From January to August, the National Press and Publication Administration reported a 23.53% year-on-year increase in the issuance of domestic online game licenses, reflecting ongoing regulatory support for the gaming industry [6] - In August, a record number of 166 domestic games and 7 imported games were approved, contributing to a total of 1,119 game licenses issued from January to August, marking a 20.8% year-on-year increase [9][10] Group 3: Game Releases and Performance - Domestic mobile games are thriving, with the upcoming launch of "Iser" by Xindong Company generating significant anticipation, ranking 4th on Taptap's reservation list [7] - Giant Network's "Supernatural Action Group" has seen a rise in rankings and revenue following the introduction of new gameplay features, indicating strong ongoing performance [7] - Several mobile games from Century Huatong's subsidiary, including "Whiteout Survival," achieved record revenues in August, contributing to a 11% month-on-month increase in global revenue for the subsidiary [8] Group 4: Industry Outlook - Open Source Securities suggests that the gaming industry will continue to experience high demand and a favorable supply-demand dynamic, with the current valuation offering attractive investment opportunities [9] - Guoxin Securities highlights that the gaming market's revenue grew steadily in the first seven months, with a positive outlook driven by policy support, market conditions, and AI applications [9][10]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The gaming industry continues to thrive with high demand for new releases and strong performance in both domestic and international markets. Notable upcoming games include "Etheria: Restart" by Xindong Company and "Supernatural Action Group" by Giant Network, both expected to drive revenue growth [3][33]. - The AI sector is witnessing rapid advancements, with companies like Alibaba and ByteDance leading in AI application commercialization. The launch of new models and tools is expected to enhance efficiency and reduce costs significantly [3][30][32]. Industry Overview - The gaming sector shows robust performance, with "Wilderness Contract" topping the iOS free games chart and "Honor of Kings" leading the iOS revenue chart as of September 13, 2025 [10][14]. - In August 2025, Chinese mobile game publishers collectively generated $2.04 billion, accounting for 35.1% of the global top 100 mobile game publishers' revenue [34]. - The film industry also performed well, with the movie "Chasing the Wind" achieving a weekly box office of 1.13 billion yuan, contributing to a cumulative box office of 11.14 billion yuan [25]. Game Sector Highlights - Upcoming game releases include "Greedy Land" on September 16 and "Pocket: Douluo Continent" on September 17, with significant anticipation from the gaming community [24]. - The "Supernatural Action Group" game features a new asymmetric gameplay mode, which has been well-received since its launch on September 11, 2025 [33]. AI Sector Highlights - The AI application landscape is evolving rapidly, with significant growth in products like Zhizhu Z.AI and Alibaba's WanAI, which ranked first and fourth respectively in global growth rates for AI applications [29]. - Alibaba's new model, Qwen3-Next-80B-A3B, has shown a 90% reduction in training costs and a tenfold increase in inference efficiency, marking a significant advancement in AI technology [31].

写在前面的话 非常感谢NEW ONE Studio及新浪游戏的邀请，定档前我参加了《盛世天下》之媚娘篇的媒体闭门试玩会，并在试玩过后对制作人Demi进行了采访。 说起这个研发团队，《隐形守护者》是绕不开的话题。2019年，这款互动影视作品一经上线，就创下了国产互动影视作品的销量纪录。至今，仍保持着86% 的特别好评，堪称该品类的天花板。这次试玩的《盛世天下》之媚娘篇，就是这个团队蛰伏6年之后的最新力作—— 这是一款以武则天的传奇人生为蓝本设计的"生存类"题材互动影视作品。玩家将要扮演"职场小白"元照，在架空王朝"盛朝"权力漩涡中心，运用情商施展谋 略、与多方势力斡旋，在经历无数次"决定生死"的艰难抉择之后，最终走向权力的巅峰。 受到近年来短剧爆火的影响，在刚接到邀请时，我便先入为主给它打上了"网剧"的标签。但在经历了两个半小时的试玩后，我可以很负责任的告诉大家：没 打对。而且我对它的看法，也在试玩的过程中发生了转变。 接下来这部分，就是我评测了。 （以下内容无剧透，请放心食用） 入戏：这是我在《盛世天下》的真实体验 我个人非常喜欢像《命运守护之夜》、《底特律成为人类》、《奇异人生》这类作品，它们除了对剧情本身 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the continuous enhancement of domestic AI models, with significant advancements in capabilities and performance, particularly in the gaming and entertainment sectors [3][34][36] - The report suggests a focus on new content and IP developments in gaming and film, highlighting upcoming releases and their potential market impact [4][30] Industry Data Overview - The game "无畏契约" ranks first in the iOS free game chart, while "王者荣耀" maintains its position as the top-grossing game in the iOS market as of September 6, 2025 [11][15] - The film "捕风追影" achieved a weekly box office of 1.70 billion, with a cumulative box office of 10.01 billion, indicating strong audience interest [27] AI Model Developments - Alibaba's latest model, Qwen3-Max-Preview, has quadrupled its parameters compared to its predecessor, significantly improving its performance in understanding and executing complex instructions [3][34] - Kuaishou has released its multi-modal model, Keye-VL1.5, which excels in video understanding and reasoning capabilities, outperforming previous models in benchmark tests [3][36] Upcoming Game Releases - The interactive game "盛世天下" is set to launch on September 9, 2025, with a substantial narrative and production upgrade, while the RPG game "伊瑟" is anticipated to be released on September 25, 2025 [4][26] - A total of 11 new games are expected to be launched in September, with notable titles from Tencent and Xindong [34] Film and IP Content Focus - The report recommends focusing on the performance of new IP content in gaming and film, with specific companies highlighted for their potential benefits from upcoming releases [4][30] - The film "731" is scheduled for release on September 18, 2025, with high pre-release interest indicated by over 438.8 million viewers expressing interest [4][30]