丁二烯、丁基橡胶市场近况更新与后市展望 20260202 摘要 全球丁二烯供应格局面临重塑，欧洲、日韩等传统产区大幅减产，而中 国产能扩张相对有限，导致全球供需错位，预计 2026 年后中国或将从 丁二烯进口国转为出口国。 乙烷裂解路线逐渐成为主流，但其丁二烯收率远低于石脑油路线，加剧 了丁二烯供应紧张局面。中国虽有新增乙烷裂解产能，但短期内难以弥 补全球减产带来的缺口。 欧洲计划在 2025-2035 年间关闭大量乙烯装置，同步减少丁二烯产能， 预计到 2030 年减少约 100 万吨。日韩亦有大规模乙烯装置关停计划， 进一步加剧全球供应紧张。 中国顺丁橡胶市场正经历转型，随着国内产能扩张和车企在东南亚布局， 中国将逐步从原料出口转向成品出口，以更低成本和更稳定供应冲击海 外市场，预计 2026 年开始净出口。 全球丁苯橡胶市场中，乳聚型（ESBR）产能较大但附加值较低，溶聚 型（SSBR）技术含量高、附加值更高。中国将在 ESBR 市场实现进口 替代，并在 SSBR 领域逐步实现自给自足。 全球主要地区对丁二烯供需平衡有何影响？ Q&A 今年以来，丁二烯及其下游产品价格走势如何？ 2026 年初至今，丁二 ...

Group 1 - The Liao Bin Economic and Technological Development Zone has set a target for "project breakthrough year," focusing on high-quality projects to build a modern industrial system, resulting in a 47.6% year-on-year increase in fixed asset investment and a 45.8% increase in actual domestic investment in the first 11 months [1] - The Huajin Amoco fine chemical and raw material engineering project has achieved mechanical completion of 28 major production units, with an overall construction progress exceeding 95%. This project aims to enhance the resilience and safety of the industrial and supply chains by moving towards high-end value chains in the petrochemical industry [1] - The development of a 3.57 square kilometer downstream fine chemical industrial park is planned to support the head enterprise clustering effect of the Huajin Amoco project, focusing on deep processing of products and promoting the development of new chemical materials and high-end fine chemicals [1] Group 2 - The Liao Bin Economic and Technological Development Zone held an investment promotion conference on January 4, establishing a "1+6" system to attract investments, resulting in 60 recognized signed projects with a total agreement amount of 27 billion yuan [2] - The Liaoning Jinfa Technology project for a 200,000-ton functional ABS modified workshop has six production lines in operation, while the remaining seven lines are under installation. Other projects include a 2 billion yuan wind power large pile equipment manufacturing project and a 1.51 billion yuan 500 kV transformer project nearing completion [2] - New signed projects are progressing rapidly, including the completion of the filing for the Andeford zero-carbon green ammonia energy storage center and the Icos carbon five new material project, which is in the final stages of environmental and safety assessments [2] Group 3 - The Liao Bin Economic and Technological Development Zone has established an efficient closed-loop system for project management, ensuring seamless coordination among departments and a "weekly scheduling mechanism" to address issues promptly [3] - Notable companies such as Jincheng Petrochemical, Lanxess, and Wiggins have gathered in the area, contributing to a diverse range of export products including ABS resin, butyl rubber, and epoxy resin, which are vital for the green petrochemical advanced manufacturing cluster [3]

Group 1 - The domestic chemical sector in China's futures market is experiencing a significant decline, with synthetic rubber futures prices dropping over 2% and natural rubber and No. 20 rubber futures main contracts falling more than 1% [1] - In the Thai spot rubber market, the prices of smoked sheets are primarily decreasing, with RSS3 grade rubber FOB prices dropping by 1 Thai Baht per kilogram for December 2025 and January 2026, and STR20 decreasing by 0.01 Thai Baht per kilogram [2] - The Indian Ministry of Commerce has initiated an anti-dumping investigation into butyl rubber imported from China, Singapore, and the United States, following a request from Reliance Sibur Elastomers Private Limited [2] Group 2 - Current market dynamics indicate that while the operating rate of downstream tire production has increased, the demand boost is limited and unable to offset ongoing supply pressures, leading to a downward shift in the market [3] - Analysts suggest that the focus should be on the accumulation process and overseas raw materials, noting that overseas raw materials are currently stronger than domestic futures [3] - The southern region of Thailand has not yet entered the peak production season, which supports bearish market logic, and analysts recommend a wait-and-see approach [3]

Core Viewpoint - Renxin New Materials plans to invest in an integrated polystyrene new materials project to expand its main business capacity and enhance its competitive edge and sustainable development capabilities [1] Company Summary - Renxin New Materials (SZ 301395) announced on October 28 that it will invest 3.8 billion yuan in the integrated polystyrene new materials project [1] - The project will be constructed in two phases, with the first phase focusing on producing low cis polybutadiene new materials, styrene-butadiene rubber, high-impact polystyrene, and polymethyl methacrylate [1] - The second phase will involve the production of tert-butanol, propylene oxide, methyl methacrylate, and butyl rubber, contingent upon the completion of land transfer procedures [1] - Renxin Technology will be responsible for the investment, construction, and operation of the project based on funding arrangements [1] Industry Summary - As of the report date, Renxin New Materials has a market capitalization of 2.8 billion yuan [2] - The company's revenue composition for the year 2024 is projected to be 100% from the chemical industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to invest in a new integrated polystyrene materials project with a total investment of 3.8 billion yuan [1] Investment Details - The project will be constructed in two phases, with the first phase focusing on the production of low cis-polybutadiene new materials, styrene-butadiene rubber, high-impact polystyrene, and polymethyl methacrylate [1] - The second phase will involve the production of tert-butanol, propylene oxide, methyl methacrylate, and butyl rubber [1] - The project will cover an area of 264,000 square meters [1] Financial Projections - Upon reaching full production, the project is expected to generate an annual output value/revenue of 7.8 billion yuan and contribute 450 million yuan in annual taxes [1] - Funding for the project will come from the company's own funds, self-raised funds, and funds raised through public offerings [1]

Core Viewpoint - Renxin New Materials (301395.SZ) announced plans to invest in an integrated project for polystyrene new materials in collaboration with the Huizhou Daya Bay Economic and Technological Development Zone [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The total investment for the project is 3.8 billion yuan, which will be constructed in two phases [1] - Phase one will focus on producing low cis polybutadiene new materials, styrene-butadiene rubber, high-impact polystyrene, and polymethyl methacrylate [1] - Phase two will involve the production of tert-butanol, propylene oxide, methyl methacrylate, and butyl rubber [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - Once fully operational, the project is expected to generate an annual output value/revenue of 7.8 billion yuan [1] - The anticipated annual tax contribution from the project is 450 million yuan [1]

Group 1: Chemical and Oil Industry Performance - The chemical index and oil index experienced an overall increase last week, with the chemical raw materials index rising by 3.29%, the chemical machinery index by 0.78%, the chemical pharmaceuticals index by 0.04%, and the pesticide and fertilizer index by 1.90% [1] - In the oil sector, the oil processing index increased by 4.14%, the oil extraction index by 0.70%, and the oil trading index by 2.97% [1] - International crude oil prices showed a strong performance, with WTI settling at $63.66 per barrel, up 1.37% from August 15, and Brent settling at $67.73 per barrel, up 2.85% [1] Group 2: Market Performance of Chemical Companies - The top five performing chemical companies included Zhenan Technology with a rise of 53.11%, Feilu Co. with 33.16%, Qide New Materials with 30.05%, Honghe Technology with 23.25%, and Jinmei B shares with 21.35% [2] - The five chemical companies with the largest declines were Shangwei New Materials down 13.12%, Weike Technology down 10.89%, Xinya Qiang down 10.59%, Zhongxin Fluorine Materials down 10.38%, and Jiuding New Materials down 9.15% [2] Group 3: Commodity Price Changes - The top five products with the highest price increases included Vitamin B1 up 12.82%, Vitamin D3 up 7.14%, Paraquat up 6.56%, industrial-grade lithium carbonate up 4.90%, and propane up 4.84% [1] - The five products with the largest price decreases were liquid chlorine down 48.51%, hydrochloric acid down 8.29%, butyl rubber down 7.79%, methyl acrylate down 7.33%, and butyl acrylate down 6.13% [1]

Group 1: Chemical Sector Performance - The chemical index and oil index experienced a comprehensive increase last week, with the chemical raw materials index rising by 1.50%, the chemical machinery index by 3.96%, the chemical pharmaceuticals index by 2.46%, and the pesticide and fertilizer index by 1.29% [1] - The top five rising petrochemical products included Vitamin B1, which increased by 12.82%, Vitamin D3 by 7.14%, and toluene diisocyanate by 4.47%, while the top five declining products included liquid chlorine, which fell by 48.51%, and hydrochloric acid by 8.29% [1] Group 2: Oil Sector Performance - International crude oil prices continued a strong trend, with WTI settling at $68.45 per barrel, up 2.16% from July 3, and Brent at $70.36 per barrel, up 3.02% from July 4 [1] - The oil processing index rose by 0.52%, the oil extraction index by 0.88%, and the oil trading index by 0.63% [1] Group 3: Capital Market Performance of Chemical Companies - The top five rising listed chemical companies in the capital market included Shangwei New Materials, which surged by 72.88%, and Hongbo New Materials, which rose by 24.726% [2] - The top five declining listed chemical companies included Ruilian New Materials, which fell by 15.98%, and Xingye Co., which dropped by 9.08% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Views - The report highlights significant price increases in Vitamin B1 (+12.82%) and fatty alcohols (+8.16%), suggesting a focus on companies expected to show substantial quarter-over-quarter growth in Q2 [3][4]. - The overall chemical sector saw a 0.80% increase in the second week of July, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.40% [13]. - The dynamic PE ratio for the chemical sector is reported at 25.37 times, which is lower than the average PE of 6.89% since 2015 [13]. Industry Performance - In the second week of July, 23 sub-industries within the chemical sector experienced growth, while 9 sub-industries declined. The top five performing sub-industries included fiberglass (+8.73%) and synthetic leather (+8.34%) [17]. - The report notes that the chemical sector's performance is characterized by a mix of price increases and decreases across various products, with significant fluctuations in inventory levels for key products [50]. Price and Spread Trends - The report identifies the top five products with the highest price increases: Vitamin B1 (+12.82%), fatty alcohols (+8.16%), and dichloropropane (+8.11%) [22]. - Conversely, the largest price declines were seen in liquid chlorine (-48.51%) and hydrochloric acid (-8.29%) [22]. - The report also highlights significant changes in price spreads, with ethylene spreads increasing by 816.67% [32]. Inventory Changes - Notable inventory changes include a 15.88% increase in polyester filament and a 10.08% increase in polyester chips [50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting emphasized the need to govern low-price disorderly competition legally and regulate the exit of backward production capacity, indicating a focus on improving product quality and sustainable industry development [4][28] - The basic chemical industry has seen a recent price increase in key products, with significant gains in certain sectors such as refrigerants, sweeteners, and organic silicon [4][30] Market Performance - As of July 10, 2025, the CITIC basic chemical industry index rose by 2.57% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.95 percentage points, ranking 14th among 30 CITIC industries [11] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry has increased by 9.67%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 7.76 percentage points, ranking 11th [11] Chemical Product Price Trends - The top five products with the highest price increases recently include Vitamin B1 (+12.82%), fatty alcohol (+8.16%), dichloropropane-white material (+8.11%), Vitamin D3 (+7.14%), and paraquat (+6.56%) [21] - The top five products with the largest price declines include liquid chlorine (-48.51%), hydrochloric acid (-8.29%), butyl rubber (-7.79%), aniline (-6.05%), and calcium chloride (-5.06%) [21] Industry Subsector Highlights - The organic silicon sector has shown a recent increase of 11.11% over the past two weeks, indicating strong performance [17] - The refrigerant sector is expected to benefit from the accelerated reduction of second-generation refrigerant quotas and the continued freeze on third-generation quotas, with companies like Juhua Co. and Sanmei Co. projected to see significant profit increases [30][31] Company Announcements - Sanmei Co. expects a net profit of approximately 947.619 million to 1.042381 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 146.97% to 171.67% [31] - Juhua Co. anticipates a net profit of 1.97 billion to 2.13 billion yuan for the same period, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 136% to 155% [31]