后市来看，橡胶期货行情将如何运行，相关机构观点汇总如下： 国元期货表示，当前市场主要矛盾在于，虽然下游轮胎开工率有所回升，但对需求的提振力度有限，难 以抵消供应端的持续压力，导致盘面重心下滑，后期来看，关注下方15000一线支撑，若不能流畅下 跌，围绕15000震荡概率偏大。 新湖期货分析称，基本面上关注累库进程以及海外原料。目前海外原料远强于国内期货。若果国内期货 下跌的情况下，海外原料依旧坚挺，国内期货难以真正撇开原料独立运行。目前，由于泰国南部主产区 还未进入旺产季，空头的逻辑无法证伪。时间上对空头更有利。建议暂时观望。 11月4日午盘，国内期市化工板块大面积飘绿，橡胶系品种集体下行，其中合成橡胶期货价格跌超2%， 天然橡胶、20号胶期货主力跌超1%。 消息面汇总 据外媒报道，泰国现货橡胶市场烟胶片价格下跌为主，2025年12月和2026年1月林查班和宋卡RSS3等级 现货橡胶FOB价格下跌1泰铢/公斤，STR20下跌0.01泰铢/公斤。 2025年10月31日，印度商工部发布公告称，应印度国内企业Reliance Sibur Elastomers Private Limited提 交的申请，对原产于或 ...

Core Viewpoint - Renxin New Materials plans to invest in an integrated polystyrene new materials project to expand its main business capacity and enhance its competitive edge and sustainable development capabilities [1] Company Summary - Renxin New Materials (SZ 301395) announced on October 28 that it will invest 3.8 billion yuan in the integrated polystyrene new materials project [1] - The project will be constructed in two phases, with the first phase focusing on producing low cis polybutadiene new materials, styrene-butadiene rubber, high-impact polystyrene, and polymethyl methacrylate [1] - The second phase will involve the production of tert-butanol, propylene oxide, methyl methacrylate, and butyl rubber, contingent upon the completion of land transfer procedures [1] - Renxin Technology will be responsible for the investment, construction, and operation of the project based on funding arrangements [1] Industry Summary - As of the report date, Renxin New Materials has a market capitalization of 2.8 billion yuan [2] - The company's revenue composition for the year 2024 is projected to be 100% from the chemical industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to invest in a new integrated polystyrene materials project with a total investment of 3.8 billion yuan [1] Investment Details - The project will be constructed in two phases, with the first phase focusing on the production of low cis-polybutadiene new materials, styrene-butadiene rubber, high-impact polystyrene, and polymethyl methacrylate [1] - The second phase will involve the production of tert-butanol, propylene oxide, methyl methacrylate, and butyl rubber [1] - The project will cover an area of 264,000 square meters [1] Financial Projections - Upon reaching full production, the project is expected to generate an annual output value/revenue of 7.8 billion yuan and contribute 450 million yuan in annual taxes [1] - Funding for the project will come from the company's own funds, self-raised funds, and funds raised through public offerings [1]

Core Viewpoint - Renxin New Materials (301395.SZ) announced plans to invest in an integrated project for polystyrene new materials in collaboration with the Huizhou Daya Bay Economic and Technological Development Zone [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The total investment for the project is 3.8 billion yuan, which will be constructed in two phases [1] - Phase one will focus on producing low cis polybutadiene new materials, styrene-butadiene rubber, high-impact polystyrene, and polymethyl methacrylate [1] - Phase two will involve the production of tert-butanol, propylene oxide, methyl methacrylate, and butyl rubber [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - Once fully operational, the project is expected to generate an annual output value/revenue of 7.8 billion yuan [1] - The anticipated annual tax contribution from the project is 450 million yuan [1]

Group 1: Chemical and Oil Industry Performance - The chemical index and oil index experienced an overall increase last week, with the chemical raw materials index rising by 3.29%, the chemical machinery index by 0.78%, the chemical pharmaceuticals index by 0.04%, and the pesticide and fertilizer index by 1.90% [1] - In the oil sector, the oil processing index increased by 4.14%, the oil extraction index by 0.70%, and the oil trading index by 2.97% [1] - International crude oil prices showed a strong performance, with WTI settling at $63.66 per barrel, up 1.37% from August 15, and Brent settling at $67.73 per barrel, up 2.85% [1] Group 2: Market Performance of Chemical Companies - The top five performing chemical companies included Zhenan Technology with a rise of 53.11%, Feilu Co. with 33.16%, Qide New Materials with 30.05%, Honghe Technology with 23.25%, and Jinmei B shares with 21.35% [2] - The five chemical companies with the largest declines were Shangwei New Materials down 13.12%, Weike Technology down 10.89%, Xinya Qiang down 10.59%, Zhongxin Fluorine Materials down 10.38%, and Jiuding New Materials down 9.15% [2] Group 3: Commodity Price Changes - The top five products with the highest price increases included Vitamin B1 up 12.82%, Vitamin D3 up 7.14%, Paraquat up 6.56%, industrial-grade lithium carbonate up 4.90%, and propane up 4.84% [1] - The five products with the largest price decreases were liquid chlorine down 48.51%, hydrochloric acid down 8.29%, butyl rubber down 7.79%, methyl acrylate down 7.33%, and butyl acrylate down 6.13% [1]

Group 1: Chemical Sector Performance - The chemical index and oil index experienced a comprehensive increase last week, with the chemical raw materials index rising by 1.50%, the chemical machinery index by 3.96%, the chemical pharmaceuticals index by 2.46%, and the pesticide and fertilizer index by 1.29% [1] - The top five rising petrochemical products included Vitamin B1, which increased by 12.82%, Vitamin D3 by 7.14%, and toluene diisocyanate by 4.47%, while the top five declining products included liquid chlorine, which fell by 48.51%, and hydrochloric acid by 8.29% [1] Group 2: Oil Sector Performance - International crude oil prices continued a strong trend, with WTI settling at $68.45 per barrel, up 2.16% from July 3, and Brent at $70.36 per barrel, up 3.02% from July 4 [1] - The oil processing index rose by 0.52%, the oil extraction index by 0.88%, and the oil trading index by 0.63% [1] Group 3: Capital Market Performance of Chemical Companies - The top five rising listed chemical companies in the capital market included Shangwei New Materials, which surged by 72.88%, and Hongbo New Materials, which rose by 24.726% [2] - The top five declining listed chemical companies included Ruilian New Materials, which fell by 15.98%, and Xingye Co., which dropped by 9.08% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Views - The report highlights significant price increases in Vitamin B1 (+12.82%) and fatty alcohols (+8.16%), suggesting a focus on companies expected to show substantial quarter-over-quarter growth in Q2 [3][4]. - The overall chemical sector saw a 0.80% increase in the second week of July, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.40% [13]. - The dynamic PE ratio for the chemical sector is reported at 25.37 times, which is lower than the average PE of 6.89% since 2015 [13]. Industry Performance - In the second week of July, 23 sub-industries within the chemical sector experienced growth, while 9 sub-industries declined. The top five performing sub-industries included fiberglass (+8.73%) and synthetic leather (+8.34%) [17]. - The report notes that the chemical sector's performance is characterized by a mix of price increases and decreases across various products, with significant fluctuations in inventory levels for key products [50]. Price and Spread Trends - The report identifies the top five products with the highest price increases: Vitamin B1 (+12.82%), fatty alcohols (+8.16%), and dichloropropane (+8.11%) [22]. - Conversely, the largest price declines were seen in liquid chlorine (-48.51%) and hydrochloric acid (-8.29%) [22]. - The report also highlights significant changes in price spreads, with ethylene spreads increasing by 816.67% [32]. Inventory Changes - Notable inventory changes include a 15.88% increase in polyester filament and a 10.08% increase in polyester chips [50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting emphasized the need to govern low-price disorderly competition legally and regulate the exit of backward production capacity, indicating a focus on improving product quality and sustainable industry development [4][28] - The basic chemical industry has seen a recent price increase in key products, with significant gains in certain sectors such as refrigerants, sweeteners, and organic silicon [4][30] Market Performance - As of July 10, 2025, the CITIC basic chemical industry index rose by 2.57% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.95 percentage points, ranking 14th among 30 CITIC industries [11] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry has increased by 9.67%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 7.76 percentage points, ranking 11th [11] Chemical Product Price Trends - The top five products with the highest price increases recently include Vitamin B1 (+12.82%), fatty alcohol (+8.16%), dichloropropane-white material (+8.11%), Vitamin D3 (+7.14%), and paraquat (+6.56%) [21] - The top five products with the largest price declines include liquid chlorine (-48.51%), hydrochloric acid (-8.29%), butyl rubber (-7.79%), aniline (-6.05%), and calcium chloride (-5.06%) [21] Industry Subsector Highlights - The organic silicon sector has shown a recent increase of 11.11% over the past two weeks, indicating strong performance [17] - The refrigerant sector is expected to benefit from the accelerated reduction of second-generation refrigerant quotas and the continued freeze on third-generation quotas, with companies like Juhua Co. and Sanmei Co. projected to see significant profit increases [30][31] Company Announcements - Sanmei Co. expects a net profit of approximately 947.619 million to 1.042381 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 146.97% to 171.67% [31] - Juhua Co. anticipates a net profit of 1.97 billion to 2.13 billion yuan for the same period, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 136% to 155% [31]