以下文章来源于晓策佬 ，作者乖乖隆的冬 晓策佬 . 商品期货领域，转载诸路干货，原创都是实话，当然会有广告。 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 2025年，似乎所有人都挣到了钱，细想应是挣到钱的人声音较大，因为2025年的行情确实很大。 一是热点品种不断创新高。 上周现货黄金连续刷新历史新高，周五最高接近4550美元/盎司，今年累计涨超70%。白银走势更为凌厉，连续突破整数关口并刷新纪 录，周五最高涨破79美元/盎司关口；铂金、钯金及工业金属铜也在资金推动下创出阶段性甚至历史新高。 二是商品强弱表现极致分化。 12月如此密集的软逼仓交易多年罕见，既有对库存偏高品种的空逼多，如焦煤、PVC、纯碱、玻璃、甲醇等，也有对相对紧缺物资的多 逼空，如贵金属和有色板块。 强势品种逻辑也是有区别的，比如贵金属行情是金融属性走强及避险预期，工业金属行情是供需紧平衡逻辑及通胀预期，并呈现"铜 紧、铝稳、镍松"格局。核心逻辑从"广谱需求复苏"，转向"供给约束+结构性需求"，能源转型和AI成为改变平衡表预期的重要驱动，而 四季度储能需求的爆炒狂飙而至，一石激起千层浪。 总之，2025年的大宗商品投资，呈现明显的预期引领价值，从操作层面上 ...

风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 资讯所属栏目还有更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 有色金属ETF(512400.SH)跟踪中证申万有色金属指数，从有色金属行业中选择规模较大和流动性较好的 50只股票组成样本股，综合反映有色金属行业公司股票的整体走势，权重股涵盖了贵金属、工业金属、 稀土、能源金属等多个细分板块，一键把握多细分领域上行机遇。 12月30日，沪深两市震荡上行，机器人、工业金属板块涨幅居前。截至13点55分，有色金属 ETF(512400.SH)涨1.76%，紫金矿业涨2.11%。 有色金属板块当前处于"宏观利好+政策提振+供给约束"多重驱动下，市场情绪乐观。分板块来看：贵 金属在美元走弱与地缘风险升级的共振下走强，金融与避险属性双支撑。白银因工业需求与金融属性叠 加，弹性更为显著。工业金属表现强势，核心逻辑在于宏观宽松预期与供给刚性。政策鼓励兼并重组将 提升龙头议价能力，强化板块逻辑。铜受远期供给紧缺预期驱动，铝则受益于低库存与政策利好，补涨 潜力值得关注。新能源金属与小金属呈分化格局，原料端短缺是关键变量。钴受海外供给扰动预期支 撑，锂价高位震荡，稀土短期受需求影响调整，长期则看政策主导 ...

2025 年 12 月 21 日 有色金属 铜矿长协加工费降至 0，铜价或迎来新 一轮上涨 特朗普称下一任美联储主席候选人需支撑大幅降低利率，向市场传 达了 26 年有超预期降息的可能。本周五日本央行加息 25 基点，符 合市场预期。考虑到市场已提前交易加息带来的流动性影响，加息落 地后全球股市、金属情绪升温，贵金属、工业金属价格迎来普涨，未 来美元指数仍有下行空间。本周中国铜冶炼厂与 Antofagasta 敲定 了 26 年铜矿长协加工费为 0 美元/吨，冶炼减产预期上升，铜价或 迎来新一轮上涨。持续看好金银铜铝锡稀土锑锂钴钽铀等金属。 贵金属 金银：本周 COMEX 金银分别收于 4354.0、66.8 美元/盎司,环比分别 +1.25%、+8.85%。美国 11 月核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.6%，创 2021 年以 来最低水平。美联储主席候选人哈塞特表示美联储将有很大空间可以 降息。日本央行加息 25bp 落地，市场影响有限。特朗普称下一任美 联储主席候选人需支撑大幅降低利率。央行和 etf 资金积极增持驱 动延续，持续看好金价中长期上涨趋势。伦敦和国内白银库存紧张， 现货紧张对价格有助推，看好白银 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector has experienced an impressive 80% increase in the Shenwan first-level industry index this year, leading all sectors in the A-share market, with a notable 5.35% rise in the first week of December [1][6]. Fund Flows and Market Dynamics - Eight thematic ETFs, including the Southern Nonferrous Metals ETF, have attracted a total of 18.5 billion yuan in investments this year, indicating strong market interest [1][6]. - The copper index has surged over 103%, reflecting a significant value reassessment driven by multiple certainties [6]. - Recent data shows a net inflow of 3.94 million yuan into the non-ferrous metals sector, with notable interest in rare earths, tungsten, and copper [7]. Sector Differentiation - The non-ferrous metals market is witnessing a divergence, with copper being the primary focus due to its essential role in new energy and AI data center construction [7][8]. - Precious metals like gold and silver are benefiting from global central bank purchases and expectations of interest rate cuts, maintaining strong independent performance [7]. - Aluminum is also gaining recognition due to supply-side constraints and demand trends towards lightweight materials [7]. Long-term Outlook - Analysts predict that the combination of emerging demands from AI, electricity, and new energy sectors, along with long-term supply constraints, will lead to better performance for basic metals like copper, aluminum, and tin by 2026 [8][10]. - The anticipated global shortage of refined copper is projected to be 270,000 tons in 2025, increasing to 580,000 tons by 2027, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [10]. Investment Sentiment - Institutional investors remain bullish on non-ferrous metals, with predictions for copper prices to range between $10,000 and $12,000 per ton by 2026 [11]. - The overall sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector is supported by strong fundamentals and a bullish market atmosphere, suggesting potential for cross-year trends [11]. - Caution is advised regarding investment timing, as the current high market interest may lead to overvaluation risks [11].

Core Viewpoint - The rise of global resource nationalism is expected to lead to sustained supply constraints and strategic premiums for key minerals due to proactive interventions by resource-rich countries [1] Group 1: Supply Constraints - Resource-rich countries are likely to impose supply constraints on key minerals, particularly small metals, which are scarce and have high supply concentration, making them more susceptible to policy restrictions [1] - Indonesia's nickel export controls have proven effective in value retention, and the country is expected to further strengthen supply constraints on nickel and tin through production quota adjustments and crackdowns on illegal mining [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Democratic Republic of Congo's shift from a cobalt export ban to a more flexible export quota system is anticipated to provide ongoing support for cobalt prices [1] - In the US and Europe, despite intentions to diversify and localize supply of key minerals, multiple challenges related to resources, technology, funding, and regulation may hinder short-term achievements [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the A-share market in China, focusing on high and low volatility strategies, economic recovery, and the impact of global competition on China's economy [1][3][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - **High Volatility Strategy**: Reflects capital expansion and encourages capital expenditure, but has faced pressure since June due to high market sentiment and significant inflows into the technology sector [1][3][6]. - **Low Volatility Strategy**: Associated with supply constraints, consumption expansion, and globalization, benefiting large core enterprises and enhancing their profitability [4][10]. - **Current Bull Market Foundation**: Driven by Price-to-Book (PB) ratios rather than traditional Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratios, indicating a shift in focus towards long-term sustainable growth [5][10]. - **Economic Recovery and Debt Cycle**: The current economic recovery is decoupled from the debt cycle, with asset prices recovering ahead of economic indicators, driven by supply constraints and high actual interest rates [7][12]. - **Supply-Driven Economic Recovery**: Characterized by price expansion through supply constraints, requiring ongoing globalization and parallel development of traditional and high-end manufacturing [8][9]. - **Global Competition Strategy**: China has strategically navigated the U.S. economic cycles, capitalizing on inflation periods for exports and implementing supply constraints during interest rate cuts to mitigate risks [2][11]. Additional Important Content - **Market Dynamics**: The transition from high volatility to low volatility strategies is necessary for focusing on stable long-term returns rather than short-term speculation [10][15]. - **Impact of U.S. Interest Rates**: U.S. interest rate cuts have led to historically low import levels, affecting global export prices, but are expected to improve as inflation pressures build [16]. - **Wealth Effect and Consumer Behavior**: A low volatility environment is crucial for stimulating consumer spending and creating a wealth effect, contrasting with the risks of high volatility leading to market bubbles [12][13]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the strategic shifts in investment approaches and the broader economic context affecting the A-share market in China.

Group 1 - China Hongqiao (01378) saw its stock price rise over 3%, reaching a new high of 22.62 HKD, with a current price of 22.32 HKD and a trading volume of 339 million HKD [1] - The company issued a profit warning, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 12.359 billion CNY for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of about 35% [1] - The significant growth in performance is primarily attributed to the year-on-year increase in aluminum prices, coupled with a decrease in the cost of thermal coal [1] Group 2 - Electrolytic aluminum is the main source of revenue and profit for the company, while alumina is mainly produced for self-use, with some external sales [1] - Guotai Junan Securities reported that domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing its ceiling, with limited future capacity additions expected; demand from the power grid and new energy vehicles is expected to support resilience in demand [1] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association indicated on July 29 that it will strictly control the addition of new alumina production capacity, suggesting that the pace of new capacity coming online may slow down, improving the oversupply situation in the medium to long term [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metal industries [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply-side reform in China is expected to break the deflationary cycle and create investment opportunities in the steel and non-ferrous metal sectors [1][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of "supply constraints" to manage the supply-demand balance and mitigate economic downturn risks [6][12] - The steel industry is facing severe overcapacity, with state-owned enterprises holding a significant market share, which facilitates the implementation of administrative measures to control production [6][28] Summary by Sections 1. Supply-Side Reform and Economic Management - The socialist market economy in China allows for effective macroeconomic control, contrasting with the cyclical issues faced in capitalist economies [12][13] - Historical experiences show that demand stimulus alone is insufficient to resolve deep-seated deflationary pressures [14][15] - The supply-side reform initiated in 2016 has proven successful in stabilizing prices and improving corporate profitability [21][22] 2. Steel Industry Analysis - The steel industry has been in a state of oversupply from 2007 to 2024, with crude steel production increasing from 490 million tons to 1.01 billion tons, while apparent consumption has not kept pace [28][29] - The production capacity utilization rates for rebar and wire rod are expected to decline from around 70% to 50% due to weak real estate demand [33][34] - The concentration of production among state-owned enterprises is high, with central state-owned enterprises accounting for approximately 63% of total production in 2024 [38][39] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three categories of investment targets: profit recovery, stable profit with valuation repair, and stable high-dividend stocks [51] - Specific companies recommended for profit recovery include Liugang Co., Taigang Stainless Steel, and Shandong Iron and Steel, with projected annualized PE ratios improving significantly under favorable conditions [51]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility of the A-share market amid significant changes in global trade and financial landscapes, emphasizing the need for investors to identify high-quality assets that can withstand market fluctuations [2][11]. Group 1: Market Context - The A-share market has experienced increased volatility and rapid sector rotation due to the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, with the Shanghai Composite Index attempting to breach the 3400-point mark [2][11]. - The article highlights the importance of understanding market dynamics and the challenges faced by retail investors in navigating these turbulent conditions [11][12]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Xu Zhimin, the Chief Investment Officer at Zhongtai Securities, has over 20 years of experience and manages over 10 billion yuan, consistently outperforming the CSI 300 index for ten consecutive years [3][15]. - His investment philosophy focuses on identifying high-quality companies, particularly those with strong supply constraints, which he believes are essential for long-term investment value [5][6]. - Xu's approach includes avoiding market emotional influences by not monitoring the market closely and making decisions based on a structured investment framework [6][12]. Group 3: Upcoming Masterclass - Xu will conduct a masterclass titled "Crossing Bull and Bear Markets in Search of Alpha," where he will share his investment principles and experiences, including lessons learned from key investment cases [10][13]. - The masterclass aims to equip participants with practical investment strategies, including the use of a "prohibited list" to mitigate human biases in decision-making [14][17]. - Attendees will also gain insights into Xu's market outlook for the second half of the year and have the opportunity for interactive Q&A [20].

Core Viewpoint - The global trade and financial landscape is undergoing significant changes in 2025, leading to increased volatility in the A-share market, characterized by rapid sector rotations [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - A-share and Hong Kong stocks have experienced dramatic fluctuations since April due to the impact of the Trump tariff war [1] - On June 6, A-shares attempted to rise above 3400 points after a period of volatility [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Xu Zhimin, Chief Investment Officer at Zhongtai Securities, will share his methods for achieving Alpha excess returns during a masterclass on June 21 [1][6] - Xu has over 20 years of experience and manages over 10 billion yuan, consistently outperforming the market for ten consecutive years [1][3] Group 3: Investment Philosophy - Xu focuses on high-quality companies, exemplified by his contrarian investment in oil and gas stocks during a time when the market favored renewable energy [3] - His investment framework is influenced by renowned investors like Buffett and Taleb, emphasizing the importance of companies with supply constraints as indicators of long-term investment value [3][4] Group 4: Decision-Making Approach - Xu avoids making decisions based on market emotions and does not attempt to time the market perfectly, acknowledging the difficulty of "buying low and selling high" [4][6] - He plans to discuss strategies for overcoming human biases in investment decisions during the masterclass [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - Xu will provide insights on the outlook for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in the second half of the year, along with potential Alpha opportunities [7]