1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The weakening US job market has increased the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. However, due to the traditional consumption off - season in China suppressing downstream demand, the total inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad has been fluctuating upwards. As a result, there may still be room for the Shanghai copper price to decline. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to key support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,400 yuan, up 360 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 80,943 lots, a decrease of 28,068 lots; the open interest was 167,671 lots, a decrease of 8,522 lots; the inventory was 20,349 tons, an increase of 727 tons; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,330 yuan, a decrease of 235 yuan [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spreads**: The Shanghai copper basis was - 70 yuan, a decrease of 595 yuan; the spot premium or discount in different regions had different changes, such as a 5 - yuan increase in Guangzhou, a 10 - yuan decrease in North China, and no change in East China; the spreads between different contract months also changed, with the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract decreasing by 70 yuan, and the spreads between other contract months having corresponding increases or decreases [2]. - **London Copper**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,633 US dollars, up 26 US dollars from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, a decrease of 141,750 tons; the spreads between different contract periods also changed, with the 0 - 3 - month contract spread increasing by 1.51 US dollars and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread decreasing by 15.18 US dollars; the ratio of Shanghai - London copper price was 8.1387, an increase of 0.02 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.443 US dollars, a decrease of 0.19 US dollars; the total inventory was 259,681 tons, an increase of 3,733 tons [2]. Industry News - **Policy Impact**: On July 30, 2025, the US government's decision on the Section 232 investigation of steel led to the exemption of import tariffs on electrolytic copper. The spread between COMEX copper and LME copper collapsed, causing a large amount of electrolytic copper to shift from COMEX warehouses to the LME delivery warehouse in New Orleans [2]. - **Mine Expansion**: Codelco planned to invest $5.7 billion in 2022 to expand the El Teniente mine, including three new ore layers. As of March 31, 2025, the Andes Norte project was 73% complete, the Andesita project was 70% complete and started operation in February 2025, and the Diamante project was 43% complete. The expansion project is expected to contribute 2 - 3 tons of copper production increment in 2025, reaching 15 tons after full - production. The annual output is expected to reach 50 tons after all projects are put into operation [2]. - **Accident**: A Chilean earthquake caused a casualty accident at Codelco's El Teniente copper mine, with 6 people reported dead, and operations in the accident area were suspended for investigation [2]. Market Supply and Demand - **Supply Side**: The production (import) volume of copper concentrates in China in August is expected to increase month - on - month. The import index of Chinese copper concentrates is negative and has increased compared to last week. The departure (arrival, inventory) volume of copper concentrates at Chinese ports has decreased compared to last week. The export restriction of high - quality scrap steel in Europe has limited Chinese importers to purchasing copper rice or brass. Uncertainty in Sino - US tariff negotiations has led to low direct imports of US scrap copper and indirect supply through countries like Japan, South Korea, and Thailand. The negative price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap steel has weakened the economic viability of scrap copper, closing the scrap copper import window and potentially reducing the production (import) volume of domestic scrap copper in August. Some copper smelters have suspended production, such as Glencore's PASAR copper smelter in the Philippines with a capacity of 200,000 tons, Zhongkuang Resources' Tsuneb copper smelter in Namibia (annual processing capacity of 240,000 tons of copper concentrates), and Glencore's Altonorte smelter in Chile with a capacity of 350,000 tons. The Congo's moa - Kakula copper smelter is expected to be completed and put into operation in June 2025, with an annual output of 500,000 tons. Liangshan Mining's 150,000 - ton copper reform project is in the pre - work stage, and the second rotary anode furnace of the pyrometallurgical system of the Yunnan Zhongyou Non - ferrous Recycling Copper Resource Recycling Base produced anode copper at the beginning of the month. The weekly processing fee for crude copper in northern (southern) China remained flat (increased) month - on - month, and the capacity of crude copper smelter maintenance in China in August may decrease month - on - month, potentially increasing the production (import) volume of domestic crude copper in August [2]. - **Demand Side**: The traditional consumption off - season in China has suppressed downstream demand [2].

行情回顾 美元指数本周一度大幅上行，主要得益于美国与欧盟等达成贸易协议、好于预期的GDP等美国经济数据、美联储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会被解读为鹰派，以 及市场削减今年的降息预期。截至本周四，美指已经连续六个交易日收涨，并重回站上100整数关口，创5月底以来新高。但是，周五弱于预期的非农数据直 接将让美元重回99，大幅下挫超过100点，市场重新计价年内两次降息。 现货黄金一度因美元走强而承压下跌。其中，周三金价一度跌破3270美元关口，并创1个多月来最大单日跌幅。周四周五黄金稍微回升，非农后更是直接大 涨40美元，抹去此前全部跌幅，重回3340美元/盎司上方。 非美货币方面，强美元一度导致非美货币走势低迷，英镑兑美元、澳元兑美元均录得六连跌，欧元兑美元录得五连跌，美元兑日元录得上涨。 国际油价本周料将收涨，为三周以来首次，主要因为特朗普将对俄乌停火的最后通牒提前至8月8日，且全球贸易局势出现缓和迹象。 风险资产方面，美股大盘涨势本周有所消停。个股方面，微软盘中市值一度站上4万亿美元，Meta在亮眼财报提振下单日涨11%，设计软件巨头Figma上市首 日上涨256%。 投行观点精选 瑞银称，美元目前的涨势可能是短暂 ...

进一步，美联储主席鲍威尔在会后发布会上的表态也偏鹰，则给金价施加了更大的下行压力。鲍威尔 称，尽管当前充满不确定性，美国经济仍然处于稳健状态。失业率保持在较低水平，劳动力市场已达到 或接近最大就业状态。他认为，当前的货币政策立场让美联储有充足准备，在面对未来可能的经济变化 时能及时应对。尤其在货币政策方面，鲍威尔表示，尚未就9月会议作出任何决定。 鉴于美联储的政策决定并无意外，市场分析人士预计美联储今年的货币政策立场将比市场目前预期的略 显强硬。在鲍威尔讲话后，金价进一步扩大跌幅。 受金价回落和美铜期价大跌的影响，当天9月交割的白银期货价格下跌121美分，收于每盎司37.175美 元，跌幅为3.15%。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 具体来看，美国商务部30日公布的初步数据显示，2025年第二季度美国国内生产总值（GDP）环比按年 率计算增长3%，扭转一季度0.5%的负增长并大幅超过市场预期的2.5%的增幅。美国商务部表示，二季 度GDP增幅主要反映了进口的下降和消费支出的增加，投资和出口的下降则部分起到抵消 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant premium of U.S. copper futures at $1,400, indicating strong demand and bullish sentiment in the market [1] - The main copper futures contract in Shanghai has surpassed the 80,000 yuan mark, reflecting a robust performance in the domestic market [1] - The article questions the underlying reasons for the bullish sentiment among investors and traders in the copper market [1]

制作日期：2025 年 5 月 16 日 【策略分析】 沪铜今日低开低走震荡承压。美国 4 月 PPI 同比上涨 2.4%低于预期，环比-0.5%， 降幅创下五年来最大。美国 4 月 PPI 意外大幅下降 0.5%，创五年来最大降幅。基本面情 况来看，供应端偏紧格局依然显现，矿端偏紧格局为市场一致预期，同时冶炼厂成本偏 高。截止 5 月 9 日，现货粗炼费(TC)-43.6 美元/干吨,现货精炼费(RC)-4.37 美分/磅， 冶炼厂加工费继续扩大负值，硫酸利润弥补少量亏损，但冶炼厂成本压力明显，但铜产 量仍逆势上涨。美铜库存大幅度拉升，导致其他地区供应偏紧显现，目前关税不确定性 存在，美国虹吸铜仍在继续，国内交易所显性库存连续去化，但去化幅度有所收窄。需 求方面，下游对高价有抵触心理。4 月线缆企业开工率达 86.3%，环比+3.2%，5 月订单 预计环比增长 8-10%，下游需求仍显韧性，关税政策缓和叠加国内增量政策，市场需求 有所提振，但五月环比四月需求或边际有走弱。综合来看，美联储降息情绪升温但依然 在拉锯战中，多空博弈下市场偏震荡，上下空间较为有限，短期或承压，中长期仍是偏 多格局。 投资有风险，入 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The copper market is in a state of oscillation under the game between long and short positions. In the short - term, the market is waiting for a driving force, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is in a bullish pattern. Attention should be paid to the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in the future [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened higher and closed lower today. The Sino - US talks have boosted market risk appetite, and the inflation level in the US is lower than expected, strengthening the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, which supports the upward movement of copper prices [1] - On the supply side, the pattern of tight supply remains. The mine end is expected to be tight, and the smelter's cost is high. Although the copper output has increased against the trend, the cost pressure is obvious. The large increase in US copper inventory has led to tight supply in other regions, and the domestic exchange's explicit inventory has been continuously depleted, but the depletion rate has narrowed [1] - On the demand side, downstream customers are resistant to high prices. The operating rate of cable enterprises in April reached 86.3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.2%. Orders in May are expected to increase by 8 - 10% month - on - month. The downstream demand is still resilient, but the demand in May may weaken marginally compared with April [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: It opened high, moved low, and fluctuated with a decline, closing at 77870. The number of long orders of the top 20 decreased by 2421 to 127955 hands, and the number of short orders decreased by 1562 to 117162 hands [3] - Spot: The spot premium in East China today was 5 yuan/ton, and in South China it was - 25 yuan/ton. On May 14, 2025, the LME official price was 9621 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was 28.5 US dollars/ton [3] Supply Side - As of May 9, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 43.6 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.37 cents/pound [1][5] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 60,500 tons, an increase of 10,500 tons from the previous period. As of May 12, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 85,800 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 184,650 tons, a slight decrease of 925 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 167,000 short tons, an increase of 1,928 short tons from the previous period [8]