1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The weakening US job market has increased the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. However, due to the traditional consumption off - season in China suppressing downstream demand, the total inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad has been fluctuating upwards. As a result, there may still be room for the Shanghai copper price to decline. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to key support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,400 yuan, up 360 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 80,943 lots, a decrease of 28,068 lots; the open interest was 167,671 lots, a decrease of 8,522 lots; the inventory was 20,349 tons, an increase of 727 tons; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,330 yuan, a decrease of 235 yuan [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spreads**: The Shanghai copper basis was - 70 yuan, a decrease of 595 yuan; the spot premium or discount in different regions had different changes, such as a 5 - yuan increase in Guangzhou, a 10 - yuan decrease in North China, and no change in East China; the spreads between different contract months also changed, with the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract decreasing by 70 yuan, and the spreads between other contract months having corresponding increases or decreases [2]. - **London Copper**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,633 US dollars, up 26 US dollars from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, a decrease of 141,750 tons; the spreads between different contract periods also changed, with the 0 - 3 - month contract spread increasing by 1.51 US dollars and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread decreasing by 15.18 US dollars; the ratio of Shanghai - London copper price was 8.1387, an increase of 0.02 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.443 US dollars, a decrease of 0.19 US dollars; the total inventory was 259,681 tons, an increase of 3,733 tons [2]. Industry News - **Policy Impact**: On July 30, 2025, the US government's decision on the Section 232 investigation of steel led to the exemption of import tariffs on electrolytic copper. The spread between COMEX copper and LME copper collapsed, causing a large amount of electrolytic copper to shift from COMEX warehouses to the LME delivery warehouse in New Orleans [2]. - **Mine Expansion**: Codelco planned to invest $5.7 billion in 2022 to expand the El Teniente mine, including three new ore layers. As of March 31, 2025, the Andes Norte project was 73% complete, the Andesita project was 70% complete and started operation in February 2025, and the Diamante project was 43% complete. The expansion project is expected to contribute 2 - 3 tons of copper production increment in 2025, reaching 15 tons after full - production. The annual output is expected to reach 50 tons after all projects are put into operation [2]. - **Accident**: A Chilean earthquake caused a casualty accident at Codelco's El Teniente copper mine, with 6 people reported dead, and operations in the accident area were suspended for investigation [2]. Market Supply and Demand - **Supply Side**: The production (import) volume of copper concentrates in China in August is expected to increase month - on - month. The import index of Chinese copper concentrates is negative and has increased compared to last week. The departure (arrival, inventory) volume of copper concentrates at Chinese ports has decreased compared to last week. The export restriction of high - quality scrap steel in Europe has limited Chinese importers to purchasing copper rice or brass. Uncertainty in Sino - US tariff negotiations has led to low direct imports of US scrap copper and indirect supply through countries like Japan, South Korea, and Thailand. The negative price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap steel has weakened the economic viability of scrap copper, closing the scrap copper import window and potentially reducing the production (import) volume of domestic scrap copper in August. Some copper smelters have suspended production, such as Glencore's PASAR copper smelter in the Philippines with a capacity of 200,000 tons, Zhongkuang Resources' Tsuneb copper smelter in Namibia (annual processing capacity of 240,000 tons of copper concentrates), and Glencore's Altonorte smelter in Chile with a capacity of 350,000 tons. The Congo's moa - Kakula copper smelter is expected to be completed and put into operation in June 2025, with an annual output of 500,000 tons. Liangshan Mining's 150,000 - ton copper reform project is in the pre - work stage, and the second rotary anode furnace of the pyrometallurgical system of the Yunnan Zhongyou Non - ferrous Recycling Copper Resource Recycling Base produced anode copper at the beginning of the month. The weekly processing fee for crude copper in northern (southern) China remained flat (increased) month - on - month, and the capacity of crude copper smelter maintenance in China in August may decrease month - on - month, potentially increasing the production (import) volume of domestic crude copper in August [2]. - **Demand Side**: The traditional consumption off - season in China has suppressed downstream demand [2].

Market Overview - The US dollar index experienced a significant rise this week, attributed to trade agreements with the EU, better-than-expected GDP data, and a hawkish interpretation of Fed Chair Powell's press conference, leading to a reduction in interest rate cut expectations for the year [1] - As of Thursday, the dollar index had risen for six consecutive trading days, surpassing the 100 mark and reaching a new high since late May. However, Friday's weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll data caused the dollar to drop back below 99, falling over 100 points [1] - Spot gold faced pressure due to the strong dollar, with prices dropping below $3,270, marking the largest single-day decline in over a month. Following the non-farm data release, gold rebounded, rising $40 to above $3,340 per ounce [1] - Non-US currencies struggled against the strong dollar, with the British pound, Australian dollar, and euro all recording consecutive declines [1] - International oil prices are expected to rise for the first time in three weeks, driven by Trump's ultimatum regarding the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and signs of easing global trade tensions [1] Investment Bank Insights - UBS suggests that the current strength of the dollar may be temporary. Deutsche Bank analysts indicate that if the Fed leans towards rate cuts in the short term, the dollar could decline [4] - Barclays believes the risk leans towards the Fed delaying rate cuts, while Societe Generale points out that four key upcoming data releases will reshape the Fed's rate cut expectations for September [4] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the Fed may restart its easing cycle in the fall, while Jefferies notes that the Fed intends to cut rates but requires a slowdown in employment data to proceed [4] Economic Data Highlights - The US GDP for Q2 showed an annualized growth rate of 3%, rebounding significantly from 0.5% in Q1, primarily due to a 5 percentage point contribution from net exports [9] - However, consumer spending grew only 1.4%, the slowest since the pandemic, and business investment showed a marked slowdown [9] - The core and overall PCE price indices for June exceeded market expectations, driven by rising commodity prices, indicating that some import tariffs are being passed on to consumers [11] - The July non-farm payroll report showed an increase of only 73,000 jobs, the smallest gain since October of the previous year, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [11] Trade and Tariff Developments - Trump announced new tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on several countries, with specific rates based on trade balances with the US [13] - A trade agreement was reached between the US and the EU, with the EU agreeing to invest $600 billion in the US and purchase $750 billion in US energy products [14] - Following the agreement, France criticized the deal as unbalanced, while Germany viewed it as a means to avoid escalating trade wars [14] Corporate Developments - Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio has completed his exit from the company, with the Brunei sovereign wealth fund becoming a significant new shareholder [24] - Nvidia responded to concerns regarding security vulnerabilities in its chips, asserting that there are no backdoors or remote access capabilities in its products [21]

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of the U.S. economy and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve have led to a significant decline in gold prices, with the December 2025 gold futures dropping by $55.1 to $3,327.9 per ounce, a decrease of 1.63% [1] Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP for Q2 2025 grew at an annualized rate of 3%, reversing a 0.5% contraction in Q1 and significantly exceeding market expectations of 2.5% [1] - The GDP growth was primarily driven by a decrease in imports and an increase in consumer spending, while declines in investment and exports partially offset this growth [1] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50% during its July meeting, despite some members voting in favor of a rate cut [1] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments indicated a robust U.S. economy, with low unemployment and a labor market close to maximum employment, contributing to downward pressure on gold prices [2] - Analysts expect the Fed's monetary policy stance to be slightly more hawkish than current market expectations [2] Precious Metals Market - Following the decline in gold prices, silver futures for September delivery fell by $1.21 to $37.175 per ounce, a decrease of 3.15% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant premium of U.S. copper futures at $1,400, indicating strong demand and bullish sentiment in the market [1] - The main copper futures contract in Shanghai has surpassed the 80,000 yuan mark, reflecting a robust performance in the domestic market [1] - The article questions the underlying reasons for the bullish sentiment among investors and traders in the copper market [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The copper market is in a narrow - range fluctuation. The Fed's interest - rate cut sentiment is rising but still in a tug - of - war. Under the game between bulls and bears, the market is oscillating, with limited upside and downside space. It may face short - term pressure, but the medium - to - long - term trend is bullish [1]. - The supply side remains tight, with a tight situation in the mining end and high costs for smelters. Although copper production has increased against the trend, the cost pressure on smelters is obvious. The demand side shows resilience, but there may be a marginal weakening in May compared to April [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper market opened lower and moved lower today, under pressure. The US April PPI unexpectedly dropped by 0.5% month - on - month, the largest decline in five years. The supply side is tight, and the smelter cost is high. The downstream is resistant to high prices. The demand in May may be marginally weaker than in April. The market is in a multi - empty game and is likely to be in a narrow - range oscillation [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Opened high, moved low, and closed down. The closing price was 78140. The number of long orders of the top twenty decreased by 3014 to 124860 hands, and the number of short orders decreased by 5012 to 112073 hands. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 425 yuan/ton, and in South China was 400 yuan/ton. On May 14, 2025, the LME official price was 9523 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was 14.5 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of May 9, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 43.6 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.37 cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 63,200 tons, an increase of 2700 tons from the previous period. As of May 12, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 71,300 tons, a decrease of 14,500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 184,700 tons, a slight decrease of 925 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 168,600 short tons, an increase of 1928 short tons from the previous period [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The copper market is in a state of oscillation under the game between long and short positions. In the short - term, the market is waiting for a driving force, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is in a bullish pattern. Attention should be paid to the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in the future [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened higher and closed lower today. The Sino - US talks have boosted market risk appetite, and the inflation level in the US is lower than expected, strengthening the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, which supports the upward movement of copper prices [1] - On the supply side, the pattern of tight supply remains. The mine end is expected to be tight, and the smelter's cost is high. Although the copper output has increased against the trend, the cost pressure is obvious. The large increase in US copper inventory has led to tight supply in other regions, and the domestic exchange's explicit inventory has been continuously depleted, but the depletion rate has narrowed [1] - On the demand side, downstream customers are resistant to high prices. The operating rate of cable enterprises in April reached 86.3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.2%. Orders in May are expected to increase by 8 - 10% month - on - month. The downstream demand is still resilient, but the demand in May may weaken marginally compared with April [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: It opened high, moved low, and fluctuated with a decline, closing at 77870. The number of long orders of the top 20 decreased by 2421 to 127955 hands, and the number of short orders decreased by 1562 to 117162 hands [3] - Spot: The spot premium in East China today was 5 yuan/ton, and in South China it was - 25 yuan/ton. On May 14, 2025, the LME official price was 9621 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was 28.5 US dollars/ton [3] Supply Side - As of May 9, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 43.6 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.37 cents/pound [1][5] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 60,500 tons, an increase of 10,500 tons from the previous period. As of May 12, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 85,800 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 184,650 tons, a slight decrease of 925 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 167,000 short tons, an increase of 1,928 short tons from the previous period [8]