展望未来，预计集团2026年液态奶需求将将温和复苏，销售同比增长4%。随着产品多元化逐步显效， 下半年改善将更为明显。长期而言，该行预计蒙牛计划增加对乳酪、黄油及餐饮渠道产品等深度加工乳 制品的投入。该行认为，这些举措有望在长期捕捉日益多元化的消费需求。 晨星发布研报称，维持蒙牛乳业(02319)每股20.5港元的公允价值，并认为该股目前被低估，2026年市盈 率为10倍。受惠于原料奶价格下行空间有限及液态奶销售复苏，预计2026年净利润将反弹。 ...

晨星发布研报称，维持蒙牛乳业(02319)每股20.5港元的公允价值，并认为该股目前被低估，2026年市盈 率为10倍。受惠于原料奶价格下行空间有限及液态奶销售复苏，预计2026年净利润将反弹。 展望未来，预计集团2026年液态奶需求将将温和复苏，销售同比增长4%。随着产品多元化逐步显效， 下半年改善将更为明显。长期而言，该行预计蒙牛计划增加对乳酪、黄油及餐饮渠道产品等深度加工乳 制品的投入。该行认为，这些举措有望在长期捕捉日益多元化的消费需求。 ...

每周 一 景 ： 云南长江第一湾 金沙江 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【食饮】白酒探底，乳制品国产替代有望加速 投资建议：成长为主线、重视供需出清下的拐点机会。 1）首选具有价格弹性标的，以及有望陆续出清标的；2）饮料结构性高增，重视低估值高股息；3） 零食及食品原料成长标的；4）啤酒；5）调味品平稳、牧业产能去化，餐供有望恢复。 白酒：加速探底，迈向供需平衡。 25Q3以来白酒行业加速探底，报表出清有助于降低渠道库存压力，展望2026年，龙头茅、五批价下行有望激发动销，从 而实现量价平衡。近期宏观及政策层面对消费板块预期形成积极催化，白酒作为顺周期资产，此前已进入加速调整阶段，板块估值分位偏低、股息率具备一定 吸引力，且对宏观环境变化较为敏感，我们认为在政策预期的引导下，股价有望先于基本面见底。 大众品：乳制品国产替代有望提速。 近期商务部对欧盟乳制品实施临时反补贴措施，涉及品类主要为乳酪和稀奶油，有望加速相关产品的国产替代过程，同 时有望增加耗奶量，加速行业周期反转。 风险提示： 宏观经济波动加大、行业竞争加剧、食品安全风险。 【产业】脑机接口元年：政策先行 临床验证 未来终至 我们认为2025年为国内脑 ...

报告导读： 扩内需逐步被提升至战略地位，消费板块有望触底反弹。白酒板块加速探底， 迈向供需平衡。大众品板块乳制品国产替代有望提速。 投资建议：成长为主线、重视供需出清下的拐点机会。 1）首选具有价格弹性标的，以及有望陆续出清标的；2）饮料结构性高增，重视低估值高股息；3）零 食及食品原料成长标的；4）啤酒；5）调味品平稳、牧业产能去化，餐供有望恢复。 白酒：加速探底，迈向供需平衡。 25Q3以来白酒行业加速探底，报表出清有助于降低渠道库存压力，展望2026年，龙头茅、五批价下行有望激发动销，从而 实现量价平衡。近期宏观及政策层面对消费板块预期形成积极催化，白酒作为顺周期资产，此前已进入加速调整阶段，板块估值分位偏低、股息率具备一定吸 引力，且对宏观环境变化较为敏感，我们认为在政策预期的引导下，股价有望先于基本面见底。 大众品：乳制品国产替代有望提速。 近期商务部对欧盟乳制品实施临时反补贴措施，涉及品类主要为乳酪和稀奶油，有望加速相关产品的国产替代过程，同 时有望增加耗奶量，加速行业周期反转。 风险提示： 宏观经济波动加大、行业竞争加剧、食品安全风险。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称 ...

事件：中国商务部 2025 年 12 月 22 日发布公告，初步裁定原产于欧盟的进 口相关乳制品，包括鲜乳酪及凝乳、加工乳酪、稀奶油等存在补贴。中方决 定自 2025 年 12 月 23 日起对相关产品收取临时反补贴税保证金。 审核历时一年，初步裁定从价补贴率以 28.6%-42.7%为主。应国内产业申请， 商务部于 2024 年 8 月 21 日对原产于欧盟的进口相关乳制品发起反补贴调 查。经过一年多的审慎调查，初步证据显示，欧盟通过共同农业政策等补贴 计划向乳及乳制品产业等涉农领域提供了大量补贴。调查期内，中国国内产 业受进口欧盟补贴产品影响，库存不断增加，利润由盈利转为亏损，生产经 营出现困难。调查机关初步认为，欧盟相关乳制品产品存在补贴，中国国内 产业受到实质损害，且两者之间的因果关系成立。据此，商务部于 2025 年 12 月 22 日发布初裁公告，决定实施临时反补贴措施。根据商务部提供的欧 盟各公司从价补贴率列表，抽样公司的从价补贴率以 29.7%为主，菲仕兰比 利时有限公司和菲仕兰荷兰有限公司为 42.7%；配合调查公司的从价补贴率 为 28.6%；其他公司为 42.7%。 涉及的商品进口占比较 ...

Group 1 - The event "Fan Changjiang Action - Hong Kong Media Students Inner Mongolia Tour" took place in Hohhot, focusing on the exploration of Yili's modern smart health valley, known as the "Dairy Silicon Valley" [1][6] - Students visited Yili's global benchmark production bases for yogurt and liquid milk, gaining insights into the technological advancements in dairy production [2][4] - The liquid milk production facility has a daily processing capacity of 6,500 tons of fresh milk and an annual capacity of 60,000 tons, making it a leading high-end infant formula production base [4] Group 2 - The students were impressed by the integration of production and visitor experience, highlighting the innovative approach of Yili in the dairy industry [2][6] - Yili's efforts to collect breast milk samples from various regions aim to closely replicate breast milk components, which resonated deeply with the students [6][7] - The visit transformed students' perceptions of Inner Mongolia, showcasing it as a modern city with a leading global dairy enterprise, Yili, contributing to its image [9][12] Group 3 - The event emphasized Yili as a significant representative of Inner Mongolia, being the fifth largest health food company globally and the largest in Asia [12] - The students expressed their intention to share more positive stories about Inner Mongolia, recognizing Yili as a bridge for technological exchange between regions [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has issued a notification aimed at alleviating the difficulties faced by the dairy industry and enhancing the high-quality development of the entire industry chain in response to current challenges such as insufficient consumer demand and rising production costs [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The dairy industry is currently experiencing low prices for fresh milk, a slowdown in dairy product consumption growth, and significant losses for farms, leading to a dual pressure of "difficulty in selling milk" and "high costs" [1]. - The notification addresses the need for improved coordination within the industry chain to tackle these challenges effectively [1]. Group 2: Policy Measures - The notification outlines specific measures including the implementation of central financial support policies, increasing the supply of quality feed, and improving farming facilities [1][2]. - Local governments are encouraged to introduce tailored subsidy policies for breeding, spraying, and increased purchasing [1][2]. Group 3: Financial Support and Risk Management - The notification emphasizes the establishment of a whitelist system and encourages financial institutions to innovate products like "silage loans" to meet the funding needs of farming entities [2]. - It also highlights the importance of optimizing herd structure and enhancing the quality safety supervision of fresh milk [2]. Group 4: Consumer Promotion - To boost consumption, the notification calls for increased promotion of dairy products, encouraging the development of affordable and simplified packaging [3]. - It suggests expanding the "student milk program" and promoting dairy products in canteens and welfare institutions, along with the distribution of milk consumption vouchers to specific groups [3]. Group 5: Collaborative Mechanisms - The notification requires the establishment of a collaborative mechanism among various departments to address new challenges in the industry and promote high-quality development [3].