Core Viewpoint - Dongyue Group's stock price has shown a positive trend, reflecting strong market conditions for HFCs and related products due to favorable supply-demand dynamics and policy support [1][5]. Group 1: Company Performance - Dongyue Group's stock price increased by 3.13%, reaching HKD 10.55, with a trading volume of HKD 56.77 million [1][5]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - The 2026 HCFCs/HFCs enterprise quota has been released, indicating strong continuity in HFCs quota policies, which are expected to maintain robust supply constraints [1][5]. - The high industry concentration and favorable competitive landscape, along with strong demand from household and automotive air conditioning, suggest that HFCs will continue to experience high prosperity [1][5]. - Fluorochemical companies, including those producing PVDF and fluorinated liquids, are likely to benefit from increased demand in downstream sectors such as new energy and AI [1][5]. Group 3: Regulatory and Market Trends - According to Ping An Securities, the quota for second-generation refrigerants will be further reduced by 2025, while the increase in third-generation refrigerant quotas will be limited year-on-year, indicating constrained supply [1][5]. - The demand side is expected to improve, driven by national subsidies, with sustained growth in downstream household appliances and automotive sectors, leading to an improved supply-demand balance for refrigerants [1][5]. - It is recommended to focus on leading companies in third-generation refrigerant production capacity [1][5].

（原标题：港股异动 | 东岳集团(00189)盘中涨近4% 26年配额发布 有望支撑HFCs供需偏紧） 消息面上，2026年HCFCs/HFCs企业配额发布。华泰证券表示，HFCs配额政策延续性较强，主流产品继 续保持强供给约束，叠加行业集中度高、竞争格局良好以及家用/汽车空调内外需支撑较好等因素， HFCs有望延续高景气。同时，氟化工企业PVDF、氟化液等业务亦有望受益于下游新能源、AI等需求增 长。 智通财经APP获悉，东岳集团(00189)盘中涨近4%，截至发稿，涨3.42%，报10.58港元，成交额5622.38 万港元。 平安证券发布研报称，2025年二代制冷剂配额进一步削减，三代制冷剂配额同比增量有限，供应端确定 性受限，需求端则在国补驱动下增势向好，下游家电与汽车需求维持增长，制冷剂供需格局改善，建议 关注三代制冷剂产能领先企业。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dongyue Group (00189) experienced a nearly 4% increase in stock price, closing at HKD 10.58 with a trading volume of HKD 56.22 million, driven by the announcement of 2026 HCFCs/HFCs enterprise quotas [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The HFCs quota policy shows strong continuity, with mainstream products maintaining robust supply constraints [1] - High industry concentration and favorable competitive landscape, along with solid demand from household and automotive air conditioning, are expected to sustain high prosperity in HFCs [1] Group 2: Future Projections - According to Ping An Securities, the quota for second-generation refrigerants will be further reduced by 2025, while the increase in third-generation refrigerant quotas will be limited year-on-year [1] - Supply-side constraints are expected to be definitive, while demand is projected to improve driven by national subsidies, with continued growth in downstream appliances and automotive sectors [1] - The supply-demand balance for refrigerants is improving, suggesting a focus on leading enterprises in third-generation refrigerant production capacity [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the chemical sector [5]. Core Insights - The merger between AkzoNobel and Sherwin-Williams is expected to create a leading global paint company with annual revenues of $17 billion (approximately 120.9 billion RMB) [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce continues to impose anti-dumping duties on imported propanol from the U.S., with rates ranging from 254.4% to 267.4% [3]. - The domestic tire industry shows strong competitiveness, with scarce growth targets worth attention, including Sailun Tire, Senqilin, General Shares, and Linglong Tire [4]. - The consumer electronics sector is anticipated to gradually recover, benefiting upstream material companies, with recommendations to focus on companies like Dongcai Technology and Stik [4]. - The phosphorous chemical sector is highlighted for its resilience due to supply constraints and increasing demand from the new energy sector, with suggested companies including Yuntianhua and Chuanheng Shares [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies in the chemical industry benefiting from economic recovery and demand resurgence, recommending companies like Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.9%, the ChiNext Index by 6.15%, and the CSI 300 by 3.77%, while the CITIC Basic Chemical Index dropped by 8.24% [14]. - The top five performing sub-industries in the chemical sector were rubber additives (1.75%), potassium fertilizer (-1.21%), tires (-2.84%), modified plastics (-4.32%), and membrane materials (-5.19%) [17]. Major Industry Dynamics - The merger between AkzoNobel and Sherwin-Williams is set to create a company with a business scope covering various paint solutions and an expected annual revenue of $17 billion [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce's anti-dumping measures on U.S. propanol will continue, affecting pricing and supply dynamics in the market [3]. Investment Themes - The tire sector is highlighted for its competitive domestic enterprises, with specific companies recommended for investment [4]. - The consumer electronics sector is expected to recover, with upstream material companies poised to benefit [4]. - The phosphorous chemical sector is noted for its tightening supply-demand balance, with several companies recommended for attention [4]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the chemical industry that are likely to benefit from economic recovery and demand resurgence [4].

Summary of Refrigerant Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The refrigerant industry in China is experiencing stable quota policies, with the total quota for 2026 remaining the same as in 2025, while quotas for R25 and R41 are increased to compensate for the exit of 141B from the market, leading to an expected continuous rise in overall prices [1][3][18]. Key Points and Arguments Quota Adjustments and Price Trends - The quota for 232 types of refrigerants can be flexibly adjusted between 10% and 30%, allowing companies to respond to market demand while maintaining overall price increases under national control [1][4]. - The average price of third-generation refrigerants is approximately 50,000 yuan, with a long-term stable upward trend, although short-term volatility is expected for products like R32 [1][6]. Demand from Downstream Sectors - Despite a downturn in the global real estate market, demand for refrigerants in downstream sectors such as air conditioning and refrigeration continues to grow, with annual growth in new air conditioning units projected at 8% to 15% [1][7][12]. - Approximately 80% of new air conditioning units still utilize third-generation refrigerants, indicating a stable demand growth in the air conditioning market [8][12]. Future Production Capacity - An estimated 100,000 tons of new production capacity is expected to be launched in the Middle East and India by 2026, which could alleviate supply-demand tensions, although the success rate of these projects is anticipated to be below 40% [1][9][11]. Liquid Cooling Technology Impact - Liquid cooling technology is significantly increasing the demand for third-generation refrigerants, particularly in the semiconductor industry, with expected annual demand reaching tens of thousands of tons [1][14]. Second and Fourth Generation Refrigerants - The second-generation refrigerants are facing quota reductions, while the fourth-generation refrigerants currently lack formal domestic production capacity, with large-scale production expected only after 2030 [2][15]. - The price of second-generation refrigerants is expected to stabilize, while fourth-generation refrigerants are projected to see a rapid increase in application in air conditioning systems, reaching 20% by 2025 [20][21]. Additional Important Insights - The actual usage of refrigerants globally is around 23,000 tons, with a mismatch between planned production capacity and actual demand [17]. - The overall price trend for refrigerants is expected to maintain a 30% increase before 2029, driven by technological advancements and market demand changes [25]. - The current average price for second and third-generation refrigerants is about 80,000 yuan per ton, nearing a peak, with a potential ceiling at 100,000 yuan [23][24]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the refrigerant industry conference call, highlighting the current state, future expectations, and underlying dynamics affecting the market.

Group 1: Macro Insights - President Xi Jinping emphasized the need to effectively advance major projects such as the Yaxia Hydropower Project and the Sichuan-Tibet Railway, focusing on developing highland特色优势产业, particularly in clean energy and特色农牧业 [1] - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes indicated that only two officials supported a rate cut, with the majority favoring maintaining the current benchmark interest rate [4] Group 2: Industry Developments - Premier Li Qiang highlighted the importance of enhancing high-quality technological supply and policy support to promote the upgrade of the biopharmaceutical industry, aiming to develop more effective new drugs [2] - OpenAI's CFO announced that the company achieved a monthly revenue of over $1 billion for the first time and is considering an IPO in the future, while also exploring the potential to offer AI infrastructure services to other companies [3] Group 3: Market Trends - The vaccine industry is expected to benefit from a new policy in Guangxi that provides free HPV vaccinations for eligible girls, with a positive outlook on the sector driven by policy, demand, and technology [10] - The global AI smartphone penetration rate is projected to rise from 4% in 2023 to 40% by 2027, as major brands integrate AI capabilities into their devices [11] - The refrigerant industry is anticipated to maintain high profitability due to tightening supply-demand dynamics, especially with the upcoming reduction in second-generation refrigerant quotas [12] Group 4: Company Announcements - Muyuan Foods reported a net profit of 10.53 billion yuan for the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of 1170% [14] - Weicai Technology achieved a net profit of 101 million yuan in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 831% [14] - Hengrui Medicine plans to repurchase shares worth between 1 billion to 2 billion yuan [14] - Yonghui Supermarket reported a loss of 241 million yuan in the first half of the year, transitioning from profit to loss [14]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.19% this week, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.64%. The CSI 300 rose by 0.59%, and the CITIC Basic Chemical Index and Shenwan Chemical Index increased by 0.25% and 0.31%, respectively [1]. Chemical Subsector Performance - The top five performing subsectors in the chemical industry this week were dyeing chemicals (5.17%), nylon (4.77%), polyester (4.61%), phosphate and phosphorus chemicals (3.34%), and rubber additives (2.42%). The bottom five were other chemical raw materials (-2.94%), tires (-2.02%), rubber products (-1.43%), viscose (-1.3%), and soda ash (-0.89%) [1]. Industry Developments - Chuanjinnuo plans to invest 1.934 billion yuan in a phosphate chemical project in Egypt, which includes the construction of various facilities with a total annual production capacity of 800,000 tons of sulfuric acid and other phosphate products. The project aims to optimize cost structure by reducing raw material import costs [2]. - Zhejiang Jianglan signed a contract to build a 300,000-ton bio-jet fuel project in Zhoushan, with a total investment of 1.5 billion yuan. The project is expected to generate an annual output value of over 3.6 billion yuan upon reaching full capacity [2]. Investment Themes - Investment Theme 1: Domestic tire companies have strong competitiveness, with scarce growth targets worth attention. Suggested companies include Sailun Tire, Senqilin, General Motors, and Linglong Tire [2]. - Investment Theme 2: The consumer electronics sector is expected to gradually recover, benefiting upstream material companies. Suggested companies include Dongcai Technology, Stik, Light Technology, and Ruile New Materials [3]. - Investment Theme 3: Focus on resilient cyclical industries and inventory destocking leading to a bottom reversal. Suggested companies include Yuntianhua, Chuanheng Co., Xingfa Group, and Batian Co. in the phosphate chemical sector, and Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. in the fluorochemical sector [4]. - Investment Theme 4: With economic recovery and demand resurgence, leading companies in the chemical sector are expected to benefit significantly. Suggested companies include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Baofeng Energy [4]. - Investment Theme 5: Attention to vitamin products with supply disruptions, particularly due to BASF's announcement of force majeure affecting vitamin A and E supplies. Suggested companies include Zhejiang Medicine and New Hecheng [5].