行 华福证券 基础化工 2025 年 11 月 22 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 基础化工 行业周报：阿克苏诺贝尔和艾仕得宣布合并，商 务部对美产进口正丙醇继续征收反倾销税 投资要点： 本周板块行情：本周，上证综合指数下跌 3.9%，创业板指数下跌 6.15%， 沪深 300 下跌 3.77%，中信基础化工指数下跌 8.24%，申万化工指数下跌 7.47%。 化工各子行业板块涨跌幅：本周，化工板块涨跌幅前五的子行业分别为橡 胶助剂(1.75%)、钾肥(-1.21%)、轮胎(-2.84%)、改性塑料(-4.32%)、膜材料 (-5.19%)；化工板块涨跌幅后五的子行业分别为绵纶(-14.92%)、涤纶(-11.88%)、 钛白粉(-10.68%)、粘胶(-10.33%)、农药(-10.09%)。 本周行业主要动态： 阿克苏诺贝尔和艾仕得宣布合并。11 月 18 日，全球两大涂料巨头阿克 苏诺贝尔和艾仕得联合宣布，两家公司已达成最终协议，将进行股票合并， 创建一家全球领先的涂料公司，年收入达 170 亿美元（约合人民币 1209 亿 元）。两家公司表示，合并后的公司业务涵盖粉末、航空航天、修补漆、 移 ...

Summary of Refrigerant Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The refrigerant industry in China is experiencing stable quota policies, with the total quota for 2026 remaining the same as in 2025, while quotas for R25 and R41 are increased to compensate for the exit of 141B from the market, leading to an expected continuous rise in overall prices [1][3][18]. Key Points and Arguments Quota Adjustments and Price Trends - The quota for 232 types of refrigerants can be flexibly adjusted between 10% and 30%, allowing companies to respond to market demand while maintaining overall price increases under national control [1][4]. - The average price of third-generation refrigerants is approximately 50,000 yuan, with a long-term stable upward trend, although short-term volatility is expected for products like R32 [1][6]. Demand from Downstream Sectors - Despite a downturn in the global real estate market, demand for refrigerants in downstream sectors such as air conditioning and refrigeration continues to grow, with annual growth in new air conditioning units projected at 8% to 15% [1][7][12]. - Approximately 80% of new air conditioning units still utilize third-generation refrigerants, indicating a stable demand growth in the air conditioning market [8][12]. Future Production Capacity - An estimated 100,000 tons of new production capacity is expected to be launched in the Middle East and India by 2026, which could alleviate supply-demand tensions, although the success rate of these projects is anticipated to be below 40% [1][9][11]. Liquid Cooling Technology Impact - Liquid cooling technology is significantly increasing the demand for third-generation refrigerants, particularly in the semiconductor industry, with expected annual demand reaching tens of thousands of tons [1][14]. Second and Fourth Generation Refrigerants - The second-generation refrigerants are facing quota reductions, while the fourth-generation refrigerants currently lack formal domestic production capacity, with large-scale production expected only after 2030 [2][15]. - The price of second-generation refrigerants is expected to stabilize, while fourth-generation refrigerants are projected to see a rapid increase in application in air conditioning systems, reaching 20% by 2025 [20][21]. Additional Important Insights - The actual usage of refrigerants globally is around 23,000 tons, with a mismatch between planned production capacity and actual demand [17]. - The overall price trend for refrigerants is expected to maintain a 30% increase before 2029, driven by technological advancements and market demand changes [25]. - The current average price for second and third-generation refrigerants is about 80,000 yuan per ton, nearing a peak, with a potential ceiling at 100,000 yuan [23][24]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the refrigerant industry conference call, highlighting the current state, future expectations, and underlying dynamics affecting the market.

Group 1: Macro Insights - President Xi Jinping emphasized the need to effectively advance major projects such as the Yaxia Hydropower Project and the Sichuan-Tibet Railway, focusing on developing highland特色优势产业, particularly in clean energy and特色农牧业 [1] - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes indicated that only two officials supported a rate cut, with the majority favoring maintaining the current benchmark interest rate [4] Group 2: Industry Developments - Premier Li Qiang highlighted the importance of enhancing high-quality technological supply and policy support to promote the upgrade of the biopharmaceutical industry, aiming to develop more effective new drugs [2] - OpenAI's CFO announced that the company achieved a monthly revenue of over $1 billion for the first time and is considering an IPO in the future, while also exploring the potential to offer AI infrastructure services to other companies [3] Group 3: Market Trends - The vaccine industry is expected to benefit from a new policy in Guangxi that provides free HPV vaccinations for eligible girls, with a positive outlook on the sector driven by policy, demand, and technology [10] - The global AI smartphone penetration rate is projected to rise from 4% in 2023 to 40% by 2027, as major brands integrate AI capabilities into their devices [11] - The refrigerant industry is anticipated to maintain high profitability due to tightening supply-demand dynamics, especially with the upcoming reduction in second-generation refrigerant quotas [12] Group 4: Company Announcements - Muyuan Foods reported a net profit of 10.53 billion yuan for the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of 1170% [14] - Weicai Technology achieved a net profit of 101 million yuan in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 831% [14] - Hengrui Medicine plans to repurchase shares worth between 1 billion to 2 billion yuan [14] - Yonghui Supermarket reported a loss of 241 million yuan in the first half of the year, transitioning from profit to loss [14]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.19% this week, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.64%. The CSI 300 rose by 0.59%, and the CITIC Basic Chemical Index and Shenwan Chemical Index increased by 0.25% and 0.31%, respectively [1]. Chemical Subsector Performance - The top five performing subsectors in the chemical industry this week were dyeing chemicals (5.17%), nylon (4.77%), polyester (4.61%), phosphate and phosphorus chemicals (3.34%), and rubber additives (2.42%). The bottom five were other chemical raw materials (-2.94%), tires (-2.02%), rubber products (-1.43%), viscose (-1.3%), and soda ash (-0.89%) [1]. Industry Developments - Chuanjinnuo plans to invest 1.934 billion yuan in a phosphate chemical project in Egypt, which includes the construction of various facilities with a total annual production capacity of 800,000 tons of sulfuric acid and other phosphate products. The project aims to optimize cost structure by reducing raw material import costs [2]. - Zhejiang Jianglan signed a contract to build a 300,000-ton bio-jet fuel project in Zhoushan, with a total investment of 1.5 billion yuan. The project is expected to generate an annual output value of over 3.6 billion yuan upon reaching full capacity [2]. Investment Themes - Investment Theme 1: Domestic tire companies have strong competitiveness, with scarce growth targets worth attention. Suggested companies include Sailun Tire, Senqilin, General Motors, and Linglong Tire [2]. - Investment Theme 2: The consumer electronics sector is expected to gradually recover, benefiting upstream material companies. Suggested companies include Dongcai Technology, Stik, Light Technology, and Ruile New Materials [3]. - Investment Theme 3: Focus on resilient cyclical industries and inventory destocking leading to a bottom reversal. Suggested companies include Yuntianhua, Chuanheng Co., Xingfa Group, and Batian Co. in the phosphate chemical sector, and Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. in the fluorochemical sector [4]. - Investment Theme 4: With economic recovery and demand resurgence, leading companies in the chemical sector are expected to benefit significantly. Suggested companies include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Baofeng Energy [4]. - Investment Theme 5: Attention to vitamin products with supply disruptions, particularly due to BASF's announcement of force majeure affecting vitamin A and E supplies. Suggested companies include Zhejiang Medicine and New Hecheng [5].