PVDF 产品价格探涨，公司提前布局四代制冷剂 Charles Zhuang 庄怀超 SFC CE: BTE209 微信: zhuangcharles; 电话: (852) 9748 7114; 15 Dec 2025 环球富盛理财有限公司 ST 联创Lecron Industrial Development Group (300343.SZ) PVDF product prices rise & To deploy fourth generation refrigerants in advance 最新动态 ➢ PVDF 价格探涨。PVDF 是锂电池粘结剂的核心材料，公司现有产能 8000 吨，另有在建产能 6000 吨， 目前主要客户包括锂电池行业头部企业及其它客户。2024 年 PVDF 国内总产能突破 22 万吨， PVDF 行业产量达到 12 万吨，然而产能扩张冲击导致锂电级 PVDF 价格下行并持续在底部徘徊。截 至 11 月 25 日，PVDF 市场看涨情绪持续升温，涂料在长期亏损和成本上升的背景下，企业联合助推 挺价；锂电领域受下游储能增量影响，企业待涨情绪依旧较浓。价格方面，涂料级 PVDF ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the chemical industry, focusing on refrigerants and natural gas markets [1][2]. Refrigerant Market Insights - **Refrigerant Prices**: - The price of second-generation refrigerant R22 has dropped to 16,000-18,000 CNY per ton due to the off-season for air conditioning [1]. - Third-generation refrigerant R32, known for its superior performance, has surpassed 63,000 CNY per ton, increasing by over 20,000 CNY per ton since the beginning of the year [3]. - R134a, benefiting from demand in the electric vehicle sector, is priced at approximately 53,000 CNY per ton [4]. - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: - The adjustment of third-generation refrigerant quotas has limited impact on the industry as the operating rates of mainstream products are high, with little room for adjustment [6]. - There is a potential supply shortage for fourth-generation refrigerants due to exhausted quotas, which may lead to price increases [10]. Future Trends and Developments - **Liquid Cooling Technology**: - Liquid cooling technology is gaining attention, particularly fluorinated liquids, which are favored for their insulation, thermal conductivity, and low toxicity. However, high costs remain a barrier to widespread application [7][8]. - The demand for liquid cooling is expected to surge as downstream applications develop rapidly, with companies already preparing technology and capacity [9]. - **Market Pricing Models**: - There is a possibility of shifting from quarterly to monthly pricing models, enhancing price visibility and performance realization [7]. Natural Gas Market Insights - **Current Market Conditions**: - U.S. natural gas futures prices have decreased by 8.6% due to ample inventory, while European prices have dropped by 1.7% as winter inventory levels are on track to meet targets [12]. - Domestic natural gas demand is slowly recovering, with expectations of better consumption in the fourth quarter due to potential extreme cold weather [12][13]. - **Investment Recommendations**: - Recommended companies in the refrigerant sector include leading firms such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. In the natural gas sector, companies like China National Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil, and resource-rich firms such as Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao Co. are highlighted [14]. Global Oil Market Insights - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: - The IEA predicts a downward adjustment in global oil demand growth to 700,000 barrels per day for 2025, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and the electrification of transport [11]. - Global oil supply is expected to increase by 3 million barrels per day, leading to a potential surplus of 1.9 million barrels per day, which may exert downward pressure on oil prices [11]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the chemical and natural gas industries.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Dongyangguang, indicating a positive outlook for the company in the context of the chemical industry [5]. Core Insights - The chemical sector is experiencing a configuration opportunity, with the index having adjusted from a peak of 9565.18 points to a low of 3876.11 points, a cumulative decline of 59.5% from September 2021 to February 2024. However, the sector has shown resilience with a cumulative increase of 13.9% from July 11 to October 17, 2024 [1]. - Dongyangguang's acquisition of Qinhuai Data for 28 billion RMB is expected to accelerate its strategic transformation into the high-growth data center sector, leveraging core technologies and a strong client base [2]. - The integration of Qinhuai Data is anticipated to enhance Dongyangguang's capabilities in AI infrastructure, particularly in liquid cooling and power management, addressing key performance bottlenecks in AI factories [2][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The chemical industry has seen a significant downturn but is now poised for recovery, with construction project growth rates declining to negative values by Q1 2025 [1]. - The report highlights the ongoing trend of "anti-involution" contributing to the sector's strength [1]. Company Analysis - Dongyangguang's acquisition of Qinhuai Data is a strategic move to enter the data center market, with projected EBITDA nearing 4 billion RMB by 2025 [2]. - The company is positioned to create a comprehensive solution in liquid cooling and power management, enhancing its competitive edge in the AI infrastructure space [6]. Financial Projections - Dongyangguang's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to grow from 0.12 RMB in 2024 to 0.94 RMB by 2027, with a significant reduction in price-to-earnings (PE) ratio from 190.00 in 2024 to 21.72 in 2027, indicating improved profitability [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company is currently in the equipment procurement and installation phase for its fourth-generation refrigerant project, with plans to begin trial production in the first half of next year [1] Group 1 - The fourth-generation refrigerant patent protection period varies by specific category, technology, and company, indicating a lack of uniformity [1] - Some related patents are set to expire next year, but there is no standardized timeline for these expirations, as different patents have different expiration dates [1]

Group 1 - The company is currently in the equipment procurement and installation phase for its fourth-generation refrigerant project, with plans to begin product trial production in the first half of next year [1] - The patent protection period for the fourth-generation refrigerant is not uniform, as it varies by specific category, technology, and company [1] - Some related patents are indeed set to expire next year, but there is no standardized timeline for these expirations, and different patents have different expiration dates [1]

Summary of Zhongxin Fluorine Materials Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zhongxin Fluorine Materials - **Industry**: Fluorine materials, specifically focusing on PEEK (Polyether Ether Ketone) and related products Key Points and Arguments Production and Capacity - PEEK material trial production has stabilized since May, with a monthly output of approximately 20 tons, aiming for a capacity target of 120-150 tons by 2026, potentially exceeding 200 tons at full capacity [2][13] - The company is currently in the trial production phase, with a high pass rate for different product models tested [12] - The production capacity for DFAPP (Polyvinylidene Fluoride) is expected to be around 20% utilization in Q4 [11] Market Dynamics - The price of PICO products is influenced by downstream demand, with premium products priced between 300,000 to 350,000, potentially dropping to around 250,000 in the future [2][17] - There is a growing interest in PEEK materials among domestic robot manufacturers, with several companies currently testing the material [26] Competitive Advantages - The core competitive advantage lies in cost control, with factors such as the length of the supply chain, production process experience, and risk management capabilities being crucial [6][7] - The purification process is more challenging due to environmental regulations, affecting the speed of capacity expansion [8] Financial Projections - The company aims to reduce losses in 2025 and expects performance recovery in 2026, with contributions from four-generation refrigerants, optical values, and PK business [5][29] - Expected profit from TFTP business in 2026 is projected to be in the range of tens of millions [30] - BPF business is anticipated to produce 600-800 tons in 2026, generating 120-150 million in revenue [31] Product Development - The company is developing modified materials primarily focusing on carbon fiber and glass fiber, with future decisions on establishing a dedicated company depending on market development [2][18] - The demand for modified materials from downstream robot manufacturers is diverse, with a focus on specific applications [19] Environmental and Regulatory Considerations - The expansion of production capacity is influenced by local policies and environmental regulations, particularly for the purification process [8][9] Future Outlook - The application of PICK (Polyimide Composite Materials) is expected to gain traction in the robotics industry by 2026, with potential revenue generation [24] - Overseas markets, especially North America, show a positive attitude towards the application of PICK, with opportunities for collaboration [25] Internal Dynamics - Internal consumption of products may offset some external sales revenue, impacting the overall financial statements [33] Additional Important Insights - The company is currently focused on trial production and testing various models, with a stable production situation reported [12] - The complexity of modifying high-temperature materials requires specialized equipment, increasing costs and processing difficulty [22] - Lightweighting is a consideration in component selection, but overall performance characteristics are more critical [28]

Summary of Refrigerant Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The refrigerant industry in China is experiencing stable quota policies, with the total quota for 2026 remaining the same as in 2025, while quotas for R25 and R41 are increased to compensate for the exit of 141B from the market, leading to an expected continuous rise in overall prices [1][3][18]. Key Points and Arguments Quota Adjustments and Price Trends - The quota for 232 types of refrigerants can be flexibly adjusted between 10% and 30%, allowing companies to respond to market demand while maintaining overall price increases under national control [1][4]. - The average price of third-generation refrigerants is approximately 50,000 yuan, with a long-term stable upward trend, although short-term volatility is expected for products like R32 [1][6]. Demand from Downstream Sectors - Despite a downturn in the global real estate market, demand for refrigerants in downstream sectors such as air conditioning and refrigeration continues to grow, with annual growth in new air conditioning units projected at 8% to 15% [1][7][12]. - Approximately 80% of new air conditioning units still utilize third-generation refrigerants, indicating a stable demand growth in the air conditioning market [8][12]. Future Production Capacity - An estimated 100,000 tons of new production capacity is expected to be launched in the Middle East and India by 2026, which could alleviate supply-demand tensions, although the success rate of these projects is anticipated to be below 40% [1][9][11]. Liquid Cooling Technology Impact - Liquid cooling technology is significantly increasing the demand for third-generation refrigerants, particularly in the semiconductor industry, with expected annual demand reaching tens of thousands of tons [1][14]. Second and Fourth Generation Refrigerants - The second-generation refrigerants are facing quota reductions, while the fourth-generation refrigerants currently lack formal domestic production capacity, with large-scale production expected only after 2030 [2][15]. - The price of second-generation refrigerants is expected to stabilize, while fourth-generation refrigerants are projected to see a rapid increase in application in air conditioning systems, reaching 20% by 2025 [20][21]. Additional Important Insights - The actual usage of refrigerants globally is around 23,000 tons, with a mismatch between planned production capacity and actual demand [17]. - The overall price trend for refrigerants is expected to maintain a 30% increase before 2029, driven by technological advancements and market demand changes [25]. - The current average price for second and third-generation refrigerants is about 80,000 yuan per ton, nearing a peak, with a potential ceiling at 100,000 yuan [23][24]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the refrigerant industry conference call, highlighting the current state, future expectations, and underlying dynamics affecting the market.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [5][21]. Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in its financial performance, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025. The revenue reached 13.33 billion yuan, up 10.36% year-on-year, while the net profit surged by 145.84% to 2.05 billion yuan [1][12]. - The report highlights the recovery of refrigerant prices and the company's strategic positioning in the refrigerant industry, which is expected to enter a long-term prosperous cycle due to supply-demand dynamics [10][12]. - The company is actively expanding its product portfolio, particularly in fourth-generation refrigerants and fluorinated liquids, which are anticipated to drive future growth [11][12]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2025 at 28.61 billion yuan, 2026 at 31.55 billion yuan, and 2027 at 33.76 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 17.0%, 10.3%, and 7.0% respectively [1][12]. - The net profit is expected to reach 4.57 billion yuan in 2025, with a remarkable growth rate of 133.4%, followed by 5.79 billion yuan in 2026 and 6.55 billion yuan in 2027 [1][12]. - The report indicates a significant improvement in return on equity (ROE), projected to be 20.3% in 2025, 20.7% in 2026, and 19.5% in 2027 [1][12]. Product Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue from refrigerants was 6.13 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 41.97%, while other product categories experienced varied performance, with some facing price declines [2][3]. - The average price of refrigerants increased significantly, with R32, R125, and R134a showing price increases of 41.86%, 8.33%, and 22.35% respectively [10][12]. - The company is focusing on developing high-performance fluorinated liquids to meet the growing demand in the semiconductor industry and other emerging sectors [11][12].

Investment Summary - Company reported a revenue of 13.33 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.36% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.05 billion yuan, up 148.72% year-on-year [1] - The second quarter saw a revenue of 7.53 billion yuan, a 13.93% increase year-on-year and a 29.84% increase quarter-on-quarter [1] Price Surge Impact - The average price of refrigerant products increased to 39,372.45 yuan per ton, a rise of 61.88% year-on-year [2] - The price increase in fluorinated refrigerants contributed 2.13 billion yuan to profit, accounting for 73.49% of the profit increase [2] - The company is positioned as a global leader in HFCs production capacity and quotas, indicating a potential for sustained profitability [2] High-Value Product Development - The company leads in the production of fluorinated polymers, which are crucial for high-end applications in aerospace and 5G communications [3] - Plans for expansion include a 10,000 tons/year high-quality melt fluororesin project and a 1,000 tons/year capacity for electronic fluorinated liquids [4] - The company is advancing in the development of fourth-generation refrigerants (HFOs) with a production capacity of approximately 8,000 tons/year [4] Future Growth Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 26.99 billion yuan, 30.05 billion yuan, and 34.21 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 10.3%, 11.3%, and 13.8% [5] - Net profit projections for the same years are 4.41 billion yuan, 5.09 billion yuan, and 5.83 billion yuan, with growth rates of 125.1%, 15.5%, and 14.5% [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 13.33 billion yuan, up 10.36% year-on-year, and net profit of 2.05 billion yuan, up 148.72% year-on-year [2][10] - The rise in refrigerant prices has been a major driver of performance, with the average price of refrigerant products increasing by 61.88% year-on-year [3] - The company is positioned to benefit from a long-term upcycle in the refrigerant industry, with a strong global leadership in HFCs production capacity and quotas [3][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 13.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.36%, and a net profit of 2.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 148.72% [2] - Q2 2025 saw a revenue of 7.53 billion yuan, up 13.93% year-on-year and 29.84% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit reaching 1.24 billion yuan, up 137.07% year-on-year and 53.57% quarter-on-quarter [2] Market Dynamics - The price of refrigerants has significantly increased, with the contribution to profit growth from fluorinated refrigerants amounting to 2.13 billion yuan, accounting for 73.49% of the profit increase [3] - The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the domestic market for high-value-added products, particularly in the fields of aerospace and 5G communications [4][5] Product Development - The company is expanding its high-performance fluoropolymer production capacity, with plans for new projects that will enhance its market position [4] - The demand for fluorinated liquids in the liquid cooling market is anticipated to grow rapidly, driven by advancements in AI and data center technologies [5] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 26.99 billion yuan, 30.05 billion yuan, and 34.20 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 10.3%, 11.3%, and 13.8% [10] - Net profit projections for the same years are 4.41 billion yuan, 5.09 billion yuan, and 5.83 billion yuan, with growth rates of 125.1%, 15.5%, and 14.5% [10]