空天有清音第5期： 当前时点如何看待石英电子布？ 长江证券研究所军工研究小组 2026-03-30 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 01 石英电子布的应用必要性在哪里？ 02 石英电子布的应用节奏如何展望？ 03 石英电子布的核心壁垒在哪里？ 目 录 3 1 分析师 王贺嘉 分析师 王清 SAC执业证书编号：S0490520110004 SAC执业证书编号：S0490524050001 SFC执业证书编号：BUX462 分析师及联系人 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 %% research.95579.com 01 石英电子布的应用必要性在哪里？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 4 5 |  | 板内：PCB； | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 板间：高速铜缆或正交背板； | | | |  | 机柜内：高速线缆模组； | | | |  | 机柜间：光模块/光纤等； | | | | 图：印刷电路板（PCB）是一种用于固 ...

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Q&A 在当前中东局势持续发酵、霍尔木兹海峡实际封闭的背景下，对原油市场产生 了哪些具体影响？油价中枢的未来走势如何判断？ 当前中东局势已连续发酵两周，霍尔木兹海峡实质上处于封闭状态，近一至两 周的实际通行量较 2025 年同期正常水平下降了 97%。受此影响，伊拉克、科 威特、沙特等海湾核心产油国已开始减产，预计下周减产力度可能达到 1,000 万桶/日，约占全球原油产量的 10%。油价已站稳 100 美元/桶。沙特的东西向 管道运力杯水车薪，阿联酋的管道也因受影响而暂停运营。随着油田停产及美 国油服公司的撤离，未来复产可能需要数周至一两个月。此次事件对原油市场 的冲击前所未有，导致运费和保费大幅上涨，每桶已达 20 至 25 美元，市场风 险溢价显著提升。判断油价的中期价格中枢将明显上行，并可能对长期油价产 生深远影响。 化工-油气、农化、氟化工月度观察 20260316 摘要 霍尔木兹海峡封闭致 2000 万桶/日供给受阻，实际缺口约 1,000 万桶/ 日，油价站稳 100 美元/桶，短期中枢看至 90-100 美元/桶。 中国海洋石油（港股）直接受益油价上行，油价每涨 10 美元利润增约 200 亿 ...

Summary of Conference Call for Watteco Co., Ltd. Company Overview - **Company**: Watteco Co., Ltd. - **Industry**: Special Materials, focusing on high-performance polymers and composites Key Points PEEK Business - PEEK business is set to officially launch in 2025 with a planned capacity of 1,000 tons (Phase 1: 500 tons) and an average price of 300,000-400,000 CNY/ton, with a gross margin of 33%-40% [2][8] - Applications focus on semiconductor wafer fixtures and new energy vehicle enameled wire [2] - Downstream applications are diverse, primarily in semiconductors and new energy vehicles [4] LCP Business - LCP's Phase 1 capacity of 5,000 tons in Chongqing is expected to be operational by the end of 2025, with an average price above 60,000 CNY/ton, higher than the industry average of 50,000 CNY/ton [2][9] - Confidence in 2026 volume growth is driven by increased demand in mobile phone cooling fans and domestic substitution opportunities [9][10] PPA and PPS Business - PPA benefits from the low-altitude economy, with significant growth in drone and robot lightweight solutions [2] - PPS modified business has a capacity of thousands of tons, with a construction project of 20,000 tons in Chongqing underway, and a gross margin of about 20% [2][11] PTFE Business - PTFE operations are conducted through Watteco Huaben and Zhejiang Kesai, targeting high-end semiconductor clients [15] - The demand for PTFE films in PCB and copper-clad laminate applications is expected to grow significantly [15][16] Financial Outlook - Cumulative fixed asset investment of 1 billion CNY from 2022 to 2025 is nearing peak depreciation pressure, with reduced depreciation starting in 2026 [2][19] - Revenue growth from LCP and PPA is expected to translate into profit after crossing the breakeven point [19] Market Dynamics - The company is focusing on differentiated strategies in the robotics sector, with PEEK prioritized for small precision components and PPS/PPA for larger parts [3][5] - The overall special materials business accounts for about 50% of revenue, with significant contributions from LCP, PTFE, PPA, and PPS [3] Future Growth and Strategy - The company aims to maintain a leading position in the special materials sector through proactive product development and capacity expansion [25] - The focus will be on enhancing competitive advantages and expanding market share amid trends of domestic substitution and high-end manufacturing upgrades [25] Additional Insights - The company has not yet launched polyimide (PI) materials and does not plan to do so [13] - The general modified materials business has not shown significant growth but will shift focus to higher value-added sectors [14] - The company is also expanding its presence in the low-altitude economy and has established a factory in Vietnam to support customer needs [22][24] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic direction and market positioning in the special materials industry.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [6][9]. Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing a positive trend with the production of air conditioners showing a year-on-year increase starting from April 2026, supported by a recovery in domestic demand and installation needs driven by housing projects [3][5]. - Prices of fluorinated polymers are on the rise due to cost support and supply-demand improvements, with notable increases in PTFE and PVDF prices [4][5]. - The report highlights the ongoing demand for refrigerants, particularly R32, R134a, and R125, which are expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, leading to potential price increases [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - As of February 27, 2026, the fluorochemical index rose by 4.35% compared to January, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.26% [1][16]. - The National Chemical Fluorochemical Price Index reported a slight increase of 0.21% for fluorochemicals [18]. 2. Refrigerant Market Review - The prices of major refrigerants have increased, with R32 rising to 61,500-62,500 CNY/ton and R134a to 58,000 CNY/ton [2][23]. - The report notes a significant increase in the long-term contract prices for R32 and R410A, indicating a bullish market outlook [22]. 3. Demand from Liquid Cooling - The report emphasizes the growing demand for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants driven by the shift towards liquid cooling technologies in data centers, which are expected to see substantial market growth [56][67]. - The liquid cooling market in China is projected to exceed 100 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 51.4% [63]. 4. Refrigerant Quota for 2026 - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has announced the refrigerant quotas for 2026, indicating a slight increase in production quotas for R32, R125, and R134a, while maintaining strict controls on HCFCs [69][70]. - The report anticipates that the tightening of refrigerant quotas will support long-term price stability and profitability for leading companies in the sector [5][69]. 5. Air Conditioning Production Data - Air conditioning production is expected to see a year-on-year increase starting in April 2026, with a recovery in domestic demand and installation needs [3][81]. - The report notes that the overall production of air conditioners in March 2026 showed a decline of 6.1% year-on-year, but is projected to recover in the following months [81].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [6][9]. Core Views - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing a positive trend with the production of air conditioners showing a year-on-year increase starting from April 2026, supported by a recovery in domestic demand and installation needs driven by housing projects [3][5]. - Prices of fluorinated polymers are on the rise due to cost support and supply-demand improvements, with notable increases in PTFE and PVDF prices [4][5]. - The report highlights the ongoing demand for refrigerants, particularly R32, R134a, and R125, which are expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, leading to potential price increases [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - As of February 27, 2026, the fluorochemical index rose by 4.35% compared to the end of January, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index [1][16]. 2. Refrigerant Market Review - The prices of major refrigerants have increased, with R32 rising to 61,500-62,500 CNY/ton and R125 to 51,000-56,000 CNY/ton as of February 28, 2026 [2][23]. 3. Liquid Cooling Demand - The report emphasizes the growing need for liquid cooling solutions in data centers, which is expected to drive demand for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants [56][67]. 4. Refrigerant Quota Announcement - The 2026 refrigerant quota has been announced, with a slight increase in production quotas for R32, R125, and R134a, indicating a sustained positive outlook for refrigerant products [68][70]. 5. Air Conditioner Production Data - Air conditioner production is projected to show a year-on-year increase starting in April 2026, with March production figures indicating a decline of 1.5% year-on-year [3][81]. 6. Fluorinated Polymer Prices - Prices for fluorinated polymers such as PTFE and PVDF are expected to recover, driven by low inventory levels and supply constraints [4][5]. 7. Key Company Performance Predictions - Companies like Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co. are highlighted as key players with strong earnings growth potential, maintaining an "Outperform" rating [9].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the fluoropolymer industry, specifically focusing on PTFE (Polytetrafluoroethylene), PVDF (Polyvinylidene fluoride), and FEP (Fluorinated Ethylene Propylene) [1][20]. Core Insights and Arguments PTFE Market Dynamics - The supply-demand structure for PTFE is improving, with a CR5 (concentration ratio of the top five companies) reaching 75%. The price center is expected to remain strong due to the doubling of alternative product costs and environmental regulations, with a profit margin of approximately 4,000-6,000 RMB per ton [1][5]. - Domestic PTFE total capacity is around 200,000 tons, with effective capacity at 190,000 tons. The average operating rate is about 80%, with major suppliers including Dongyue, Chenguang, and Juhua [2]. - The price range for different PTFE products varies, with medium particle products priced at approximately 43,000-45,000 RMB per ton, and suspension fine powder at around 50,000 RMB per ton [4]. PVDF Market Insights - The demand for lithium battery-grade PVDF is driven by energy storage and power battery applications, with a projected 40.4% year-on-year increase in vehicle installations by 2025. Despite 60,000 tons of idle capacity, the short-term market feels tight due to long restart cycles [1][7]. - The total domestic PVDF capacity is about 270,000 tons, with lithium battery-grade capacity at approximately 169,000-170,000 tons. Idle capacity is around 60,000 tons, primarily due to low operating rates across the industry [8][11]. - The price of PVDF has increased significantly due to supply tightness caused by the shutdown of a major plant in Inner Mongolia, which accounts for 51.4% of the market share in the coating-grade segment [9][14]. FEP Market Conditions - The FEP industry is experiencing lower demand, with a CR3 of 65% and an operating rate of only 56%-65%. The competition is fierce in the low-end segment, while high-end products still rely heavily on imports [1][20]. - The total domestic FEP capacity is approximately 67,700 tons, with major producers including Dongyue and Yonghe. Future capacity additions are expected to be around 23,000 tons [20][21]. Additional Important Insights - The profitability of lithium battery-grade PVDF is estimated at 5,000-8,000 RMB per ton, with current prices ranging from 50,000 to 55,000 RMB per ton [16]. - The industry is witnessing a trend where high-end products are increasingly being imported, while domestic high-end FEP products are still developing [22]. - The overall sentiment in the fluoropolymer industry is positive, with PTFE leading in terms of market potential, followed by PVDF, while FEP lags behind [26]. Conclusion - The fluoropolymer industry is characterized by a strong demand for PTFE and PVDF, driven by technological advancements and increasing applications in various sectors. The market dynamics indicate a potential for growth, particularly in the lithium battery segment, while challenges remain in the FEP market due to reliance on imports and low-end competition.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical raw materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing a comprehensive price increase for third-generation refrigerants, indicating signs of recovery in fluorine materials [4][24] - The fluorochemical index rose by 4.95%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.97% and the CSI 300 Index by 3.87% [6][37] - The market for fluorite is stable, with the average price of 97% wet fluorite at 3,324 CNY/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous period [7][18] - The pricing for various refrigerants has been adjusted upwards, with R125 leading the increase by 5,000 CNY/ton to 56,000 CNY/ton [23][25] Summary by Sections 1. Fluorochemical Industry Overview - The fluorochemical market is showing signs of stability, with fluorite prices holding steady and a potential recovery in fluorine materials [18][19] 2. Market Tracking - The fluorochemical index has increased by 4.95%, outperforming major indices, indicating strong market performance [6][37] - Key stocks in the fluorochemical sector, such as Jinshi Resources and Dongyue Group, have shown significant weekly gains [43] 3. Refrigerant Pricing - Comprehensive price adjustments have been made for refrigerants, with R32, R134a, and R125 all experiencing price increases [20][23] - The market is characterized by a "second-generation stability, third-generation overall increase" pricing pattern, reflecting a cautious approach to price increases amid recovering demand [22] 4. Fluorine Material Market - The fluorine material market is showing signs of recovery, with price increases for certain products driven by tightening supply and rising production costs [9][24] 5. Recent Industry Developments - Companies such as Dongyue Group and New Zobang have released performance forecasts, indicating positive outlooks for the sector [10][24]

Group 1 - Dongyue Group (00189) saw a nearly 6% increase in stock price, currently at HKD 14.09 with a trading volume of HKD 302 million [1] - Market liquidity is expected to gradually return next week as companies resume operations after the Spring Festival, with demand anticipated to be released after March [1] - The refrigerant market is supported by low inventory levels and bullish expectations, maintaining high price consolidation [1] Group 2 - Export market orders are continuing to progress, and the upcoming refrigeration exhibition in April may bring new opportunities for the refrigerant market [1] - Guosen Securities indicated that the tightening of refrigerant quotas is a long-term trend, with a positive outlook for mainstream refrigerants like R32, R134a, and R125, which are expected to have significant price upside [1] - The liquid cooling industry is expected to increase demand for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants, with a recommendation to pay attention to the price recovery of fluoropolymer products like PVDF and PTFE [1]