国信证券发布研报称，展望2026年一季度，伴随一季度长协价格确定，终端空调企业长协订单执行稳 定。根据百川盈孚、卓创咨询，26年1月份R22、R125、R152a报价均上涨。排产方面，2026年前两月排 产出现分化，1月受元旦假期以及部分企业前置2月春节排产影响，内销排产推高。此外，关注成本支 撑、供需改善背景下含氟聚合物价格上涨，建议关注PVDF、PTFE等含氟高分子价格修复。 国信证券主要观点如下： 一季度主流制冷剂长协价格持续上涨 展望一季度，伴随一季度长协价格确定，终端空调企业长协订单执行稳定：据卓创资讯（301299）， R32长协价格将在6.12万元/吨，环比2025年四季度价格上涨1000元/吨，涨幅1.66%；R410A长协价格在 5.51万元/吨，环比2025年四季度上涨1900元/吨，涨幅3.57%。预计往后一周R32价格区间约6.2-6.3万元/ 吨，R410a往后一周价格区间约5.5-5.6万元/吨，R134a往后一周价格区间约5.6-5.7万元/吨。 R22、R125、R152a报价上涨 根据百川盈孚、卓创咨询，本月R22报价提升至1.7万元/吨，较上月+1000元/吨；R134a报 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [5][10]. Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing rapid growth, with prices of fluorinated polymers continuing to rise. The performance of fluorochemical companies is strong, supported by stable demand and supply dynamics [1][4]. - The long-term outlook for mainstream refrigerants such as R32, R134a, and R125 remains positive due to tightening quota constraints, which are expected to sustain price increases [5][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - As of January 30, 2026, the fluorochemical index stood at 2155.24 points, up 6.77% from the end of December 2025. The index underperformed the Shenwan Chemical Index by 5.95 percentage points but outperformed the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indices by 5.12 and 3.01 percentage points, respectively [1][17]. 2. Refrigerant Market Review - In the first quarter of 2026, long-term contract prices for mainstream refrigerants are on the rise. R32 is expected to be priced at 61,200 CNY/ton, a 1.66% increase from the previous quarter, while R410A is projected at 55,100 CNY/ton, up 3.57% [2][22]. - The domestic prices for R22, R134a, R125, and R32 have shown increases, with R22 reaching 17,000 CNY/ton, R125 at 48,500 CNY/ton, and R134a maintaining at 58,000 CNY/ton [24][23]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side of the fluorochemical industry is characterized by tight overall supply and low inventory levels among companies, which supports price increases. The demand side shows continued interest in stockpiling ahead of the holiday season [4][9]. - The production quotas for refrigerants in 2026 indicate a slight increase in the production capacity for R32, R125, and R134a, while R143a and R152a quotas have been reduced [4][79]. 4. Liquid Cooling Demand - The rapid growth of data centers is driving the demand for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants, as traditional air cooling methods are becoming insufficient. The market for liquid cooling solutions is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market size exceeding 100 billion CNY by 2027 [64][70]. - Companies involved in the production of fluorinated liquids, such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and others, are well-positioned to benefit from this trend [73][74]. 5. Key Company Profit Forecasts - Juhua Co. is expected to achieve a net profit of 3.54-3.94 billion CNY in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 80%-101%. Dongyue Group and Sanmei Co. are also projected to see significant profit increases [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [5][10]. Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing rapid growth, with prices of fluoropolymers continuing to rise. The industry index has shown a performance that outpaces the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index [1][5]. - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see stable execution of long-term contracts for refrigerants, with significant price increases noted for R32 and R410A [2][5]. - The demand for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants is anticipated to increase due to the growth of liquid cooling technologies in data centers, driven by the need for efficient cooling solutions [3][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - As of January 30, 2026, the fluorochemical index reached 2155.24 points, up 6.77% from the end of December 2025, while the chemical index rose by 12.72% [1][17]. - The Guosen Chemical Fluorochemical Price Index reported a 2.95% increase, indicating a positive trend in pricing for fluorochemical products [1][18]. 2. Refrigerant Market Review - Long-term contract prices for refrigerants are on the rise, with R32 priced at 61,200 CNY/ton and R410A at 55,100 CNY/ton, reflecting increases of 1.66% and 3.57% respectively from the previous quarter [2][22]. - The domestic prices for R22, R125, and R134a have also seen upward adjustments, with R22 now at 17,000 CNY/ton, up 1,000 CNY/ton from the previous month [2][24]. 3. Liquid Cooling Demand - The report highlights the urgent need for efficient cooling technologies in data centers, with liquid cooling solutions becoming increasingly favored over traditional air cooling due to their superior efficiency [3][64]. - The market for liquid cooling in data centers is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 51.4% expected from 2019 to 2027 [3][70]. 4. Refrigerant Quota Announcements - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has announced the refrigerant quotas for 2026, indicating a slight increase in production quotas for R32, R125, and R134a, while R141b's quota has been eliminated [4][79]. - The report suggests that the tightening of refrigerant quotas will support long-term price stability and growth in the industry [4][74]. 5. Company Profit Forecasts - Major companies in the fluorochemical sector, such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co., are expected to see significant profit growth in 2025, with Juhua's net profit projected to increase by 80%-101% [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [5][10]. Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing rapid growth, with prices of fluorinated polymers continuing to rise. The industry index has shown a performance that outpaces the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index [1][5]. - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see sustained price increases for mainstream refrigerants due to stable execution of long-term contracts by terminal air conditioning companies [2][5]. - The demand for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants is anticipated to increase due to the growth of liquid cooling technologies in data centers, driven by the need for efficient cooling solutions [3][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - As of January 30, 2026, the fluorochemical index was at 2155.24 points, up 6.77% from the end of December 2025, indicating a strong performance relative to other indices [1][17]. 2. Refrigerant Market Review - Long-term contract prices for refrigerants such as R32 and R410A have increased, with R32 priced at 61,200 CNY/ton and R410A at 55,100 CNY/ton, reflecting increases of 1.66% and 3.57% respectively from the previous quarter [2][22]. - The domestic prices for R22, R125, and R134a have also seen increases, with R22 at 17,000 CNY/ton and R125 at 48,500 CNY/ton [24]. 3. Liquid Cooling Demand - The report highlights the urgent need for efficient cooling technologies in data centers, with liquid cooling solutions becoming a preferred choice due to their superior performance compared to traditional air cooling [3][64]. - The market for liquid cooling in data centers is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 51.4% expected from 2019 to 2027 [70]. 4. Refrigerant Quota Announcements - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has announced the 2026 refrigerant quotas, indicating a slight increase in production quotas for R32, R125, and R134a, while R141b's quota has been eliminated [4][79]. - The report anticipates that the stringent quota policies will continue to support the long-term growth of refrigerant products [4][74]. 5. Key Company Profit Forecasts - Key companies in the fluorochemical sector, such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co., are projected to achieve significant profit growth in 2025, with expected net profits increasing by 80%-176% year-on-year [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the basic chemical industry, particularly due to rising oil prices and improving product demand [3][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the continuous rise in crude oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ decisions, is expected to support the recovery of the refining sector [3][5]. - PTA and polyester filament prices are on the rise, with PTA industry measures contributing to improved market conditions [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the potential growth of bio-jet fuel (SAF) as a renewable energy source, recommending attention to companies like Zhuoyue New Energy [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Product Tracking - Crude oil prices have increased, with WTI at $61.29 per barrel and Brent at $66.23 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 3.11% and 3.16% respectively [3]. - PTA prices have risen to 5140 CNY per ton, with polyester filament prices also increasing, indicating a recovery in the market [4][10]. 2. Key Chemical Product Price Tracking - Key products such as nicotinamide (up 8.96%), acetonitrile (up 8.72%), and styrene (up 7.96%) have shown significant price increases, while industrial-grade dimethyl carbonate and epoxy propane have seen declines [10]. - The report notes that the price of glyphosate has risen to 23296 CNY per ton, with a weekly increase of 200 CNY per ton [15]. 3. Refining Sector - The refining sector is expected to benefit from stable oil prices and increased demand, with companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Satellite Chemical recommended for investment [5]. 4. Agricultural Chemicals - The prices of ammonium phosphate and potassium chloride have increased, with ammonium phosphate priced at 3821 CNY per ton [17][20]. 5. Fluorochemicals - Prices for refrigerants R22 and R125 have risen, supported by supply constraints and environmental regulations [22][24].

制冷剂含氟聚合物近况更新 20260121 摘要 R32 价格年初异常波动，从 2024 年不足 2 万元涨至约 6 万元，涨幅显 著，主要受下游空调需求增长驱动，尤其是在以旧换新政策和家电企业 排产计划增加的背景下，预计未来价格仍有上涨空间。 高级制冷剂如 R125、R404、R507 等自 2023 年配额政策执行以来价 格上涨，但受光伏行业需求回调影响有所回落。企业通过削减配额主动 提价，叠加海外市场需求增加，推动小品种制冷剂价格上涨，预计旺季 需求带动下仍有涨价空间。 国内 32 空调与 410A 空调生产比例已达 8:2，导致 410A 产业链需求缩 减，售价逐渐低于 32。美国和欧洲法规对高级导流 P 产品的约束和淘汰 加速了这一转变。 134A 库存处于历史低位，中化与车企签订长期订单价格已超 6.2 万元/ 吨，散水市场价格也在上涨，预计年底可能达到 7 万元/吨甚至更高，主 要受益于售后市场需求。 125 制冷剂市场前景乐观，企业主动削减配额并成功提价至 5.1 万元/吨， 预计未来价格可能追赶 32 制冷剂水平，达到 6 万元/吨，无需过多担忧 内贸转向的影响。 Q&A 2026 年制冷剂 ...

Summary of Dongyue Group Conference Call Company Overview - Dongyue Group is a leading enterprise in the domestic fluorosilicone industry, established in 1987, focusing on new energy, new environmental protection, and new materials [4][13] - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the chairman and his son holding a combined 15.4% of shares, and has repurchased 31% of shares from Xinhua Group [2][4] Key Business Segments Refrigerants - The refrigerant industry is entering a long-term upcycle following the national quota freeze in 2024, with a market concentration (CR3) of 65% [2][7] - Dongyue Group holds approximately 32,000 tons of second-generation refrigerant rights and 63,000 tons of third-generation refrigerant rights, significantly contributing to the company's performance [3][9] - Prices for certain refrigerants have risen significantly, with R32 reaching 63,000 CNY/ton and R134 reaching 58,000 CNY/ton, indicating a strong price outlook [8] Organic Silicon - The organic silicon industry is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 10%, with demand increasing and no new capacity expected after 2025 due to reduced capital expenditure [2][11] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for apparent consumption of organic silicon from 2008 to 2024 is projected at 11%, with exports growing at 19% [11] Fluoropolymers - Dongyue's fluoropolymer products include PTFE and PVDF, with PTFE maintaining a gross margin of over 20% in high-value applications despite low profitability in low-end markets [12] - PVDF is benefiting from increased demand in energy storage and lithium battery applications, with a potential for price recovery due to improving supply-demand balance [12] Financial Performance and R&D - The company maintains a good cash flow and debt situation, with R&D investment accounting for about 5% of revenue, reflecting a commitment to high-quality development [5][6] Market Dynamics - The third-generation refrigerant market is stable due to the inability to build new production capacity, ensuring existing players are not threatened by new entrants [7] - The second-generation refrigerant market is expected to see price recovery as quotas are reduced, despite a recent price drop [10] Investment Outlook - Dongyue Group is well-positioned in the refrigerant, organic silicon, and fluoropolymer sectors, with a favorable valuation and potential for growth in a long-term upcycle [2][13]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [10] Core Insights - The company is a leader in the fluorosilicone industry, with the third-generation refrigerant quota officially freezing in 2024, indicating a long-term upward trend for the industry [3][10] - Significant slowdown in capital expenditure for organic silicon, with demand maintaining high growth, suggesting a potential reversal from the industry's bottom [3][10] - The fluorinated polymer segment is expected to encounter structural opportunities [3][10] Company Overview - The company is a leading enterprise in China's fluorosilicone industry, focusing on creating a world-class fluorosilicone material industry chain [6][16] - It operates through subsidiaries, including Dongyue Green Cold Technology for refrigerants, Dongyue Silicon Materials for organic silicon, and Dongyue High Polymer Materials for fluorinated polymers [6][16] Refrigerants - The refrigerant market is experiencing a sustained upward trend, with a new business model forming due to the freezing of third-generation refrigerant quotas in 2024 [7][40] - The industry is transitioning from a state of oversupply to a balanced supply-demand situation, with a high concentration rate of 65% among the top three companies [7][47] - Prices for R32, R134a, R125, and R143a have increased significantly, with respective price increases of 265%, 107%, 71%, and 44% compared to early 2024 [7] Organic Silicon - The organic silicon industry is at the bottom of its cycle, with expectations for a gradual recovery supported by stable demand across traditional and emerging sectors [8] - The domestic organic silicon industry is transitioning from a phase of capacity expansion to a period of limited new capacity, alleviating supply-side pressures [8] Fluorinated Polymers - The fluorinated polymer sector is at a low point, but emerging demand is expected to drive growth, particularly in high-end applications [9] - The company is well-positioned in the production of PTFE, with advantages in high-end markets, while PVDF is benefiting from unexpected demand in lithium battery applications [9]

Summary of the Conference Call on Taiwan PCB, CCL, and Substrates Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call was on the PCB (Printed Circuit Board), CCL (Copper Clad Laminate), and substrate industry, particularly in relation to HDI (High-Density Interconnect) technology adoption and its implications for ASIC (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit) servers [2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **HDI Adoption Roadmap**: - There is a significant interest from long-term investors regarding the timeline for HDI technology adoption in ASIC servers, especially following Nvidia's extensive use in AI server boards. The adoption of TPU (Tensor Processing Unit) servers is anticipated by late-2027 or early-2028, with CCL shipments expected in Q4 2026 [2][3]. - Major AI HDI suppliers currently include VGT and Unimicron, both of which are closely tied to Nvidia. The inclusion of more AI HDI suppliers is expected as the industry prepares for v9 generation adoption [2][3]. 2. **Material Technology Insights**: - Nvidia is leading advancements in circuit board technology, particularly with high layer count AI HDI. The midplane PCB for the Rubin project will utilize M9 material, with a 20% probability of being used in NVLink switch boards, which could significantly benefit EMC if realized [2][3]. - There are two material options for ultra-high layer count boards: M9 PCB/HDI material and PTFE (Polytetrafluoroethylene). The potential inclusion of PTFE indicates a shift towards more demanding data loss requirements, although M9 is expected to be the prevailing choice due to fewer production challenges [2][3]. 3. **Unimicron's Capacity Expansion**: - Unimicron plans to increase its 2025 capital expenditure by NT$6 billion, raising it to NT$25.4 billion, primarily for substrate investments. This includes advancing the KF2 launch to mid-2026 and initiating the YM phase 2 project, which is expected to ramp up in late-2027/2028 [2][3]. - The KF2 capacity remains unchanged in size but is expected to be utilized for ASIC projects, indicating strong demand for advanced high-performance substrates [3]. 4. **Market Dynamics**: - The report highlights a strong demand for advanced high-performance substrates, with Unimicron positioned favorably among substrate suppliers for AI accelerators [3]. - The anticipated shipment timelines and material grades for TPU generations are outlined, indicating a structured approach to technology adoption and supplier engagement [4]. Additional Important Information - The dielectric loss comparison for various materials at 14GHz shows that PTFE has the lowest loss (<0.001), followed by M9 (0.001), M8 (0.0015-0.002), and M7 (0.004-0.005), which underscores the performance advantages of PTFE in specific applications [5]. - The report includes a detailed table of TPU CCL and PCB by generation, indicating the expected shipment start dates and material grades, which is crucial for understanding the supply chain dynamics [4]. Companies Discussed - **Elite Material Co** (Ticker: 2383.TW) - Current Price: NT$1,495.00, Rating: Overweight - **Unimicron** (Ticker: 3037.TW) - Current Price: NT$214.00, Rating: Overweight [7]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the PCB, CCL, and substrate industry, particularly in the context of HDI technology and its implications for future market dynamics.

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to Shanghai Huayi Group Corporation, indicating a favorable outlook for the company [8]. Core Insights - Shanghai Huayi Group is a comprehensive chemical enterprise with five core business systems: energy chemicals, green tires, advanced materials, fine chemicals, and chemical services. The company achieved a total revenue of 36 billion yuan and a net profit of 395 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [1]. - The acquisition of a 60% stake in San Aifu for 4.091 billion yuan enhances Huayi's position in the fluorochemical sector, with core products including high-end fluoropolymers and fourth-generation refrigerants, which are widely used in new energy, electronic information, and aerospace fields [1]. - The Guangxi Huayi Energy Chemical Company, a significant investment project, is the largest industrial project in Guangxi, with a total investment nearing 100 billion yuan [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Shanghai Huayi Group operates in various sectors, including energy chemicals, green tires, advanced materials, fine chemicals, and chemical services, making it a leading player in the chemical industry [1]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues of 36 billion yuan and a net profit of 395 million yuan [1]. Strategic Developments - The acquisition of San Aifu strengthens Huayi's fluorochemical capabilities, with San Aifu generating 4.62 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, albeit with a 13% year-on-year decline [1]. - The Guangxi base is a key component of Huayi's growth strategy, with significant investments aimed at enhancing production capabilities and market reach [4]. Competitive Advantages - The company has established itself as a preferred partner for global chemical firms entering the Chinese market, collaborating with major companies like BASF and Arkema [4]. - Huayi's extensive network of advanced chemical production bases supports its competitive positioning both domestically and internationally [4].