证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2026-01-07 周观：如何看待 2026 年 1 月的流动性情况？（2025 年第 50 期） 固收点评 20260103：绿色债券周度数据跟踪（20251229-20251231） 一级市场发行情况：本周（20251229-20251231）银行间市场及交易所市 场共新发行绿色债券 13 只，合计发行规模约 133.98 亿元，较上周减少 93.63 亿元。二级市场成交情况：本周（20251229-20251231）绿色债券周 成交额合计 490 亿元，较上周减少 155 亿元。 固收周报 20251228：周观：如何看待 2026 年 1 月的流动性情况？（2025 年第 50 期） [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观点评 20260106：每周宏观经济和资产配置研判—20260106 2026 一季度经济开门红的可能性略有提升 固收金工 [Table_FixedGain] 固收周报 20260104：公募基金销售新规正式稿落地，债市修复可期 2025 年末最后一周债券市场维持震荡偏弱，主要受年末机构行 ...

Core Insights - Midea Group and BYD have signed a strategic cooperation agreement to create a "Human-Vehicle-Home" smart ecosystem, integrating their strengths in smart vehicles, smart home technology, and AIoT [1][3] Group 1: Strategic Collaboration - The partnership aims to break the physical boundaries between vehicles and homes, focusing on the seamless integration of smart appliances and IoT vehicle products across multiple brands [3] - Both companies will collaborate on AI agent-level innovations, standardizing technical interfaces and data protocols to enhance data communication and collaborative decision-making between smart vehicles and home environments [3] Group 2: Implementation and Symbolism - The agreement includes comprehensive cooperation across all BYD vehicle models and Midea's brands such as Midea, COLMO, Little Swan, Hualing, and Toshiba [3] - A vehicle delivery ceremony was held, symbolizing mutual trust and friendship between the leaders of both companies, and representing their joint commitment to advancing high-end and intelligent technologies [3]

Core Insights - BYD reported October sales of 441,706 vehicles, with 436,856 being passenger cars, and overseas sales of passenger cars and pickups reaching 83,524, marking a year-on-year increase of 155.5% [2] Sales Performance - In the month of October, the Dynasty and Ocean series combined sales totaled 395,015 vehicles, while the Fangchengbao sold 31,052 units, Tengshi sold 10,135 units, and Yangwang sold 654 units [2] - Cumulatively, from January to October, BYD sold 3,701,852 vehicles, with overseas sales of passenger cars and pickups reaching 785,103 units [2] New Energy Vehicle Sales - As of the end of October, BYD's cumulative sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 1.42 million units [2] Financial Performance - For the third quarter, BYD reported revenue of 194.985 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.05% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.823 billion yuan, down 32.60% year-on-year; and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 6.891 billion yuan, a decline of 36.65% year-on-year [2] - For the first three quarters, BYD achieved revenue of 566.266 billion yuan, an increase of 12.75% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 23.333 billion yuan, down 7.55% year-on-year; and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 20.49 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.65% year-on-year [2]

Core Viewpoint - BYD is actively expanding its global presence and high-end brand offerings, with a focus on emerging technologies such as embodied intelligent robots [1][5][6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, BYD achieved revenue of 371.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.30%, surpassing Tesla for the first time in revenue scale during the same period [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 15.51 billion yuan, up 13.79% year-on-year [2]. - Revenue from automotive and related products reached approximately 302.51 billion yuan, growing by 32.49% year-on-year [2]. - BYD's market share reached 13.7%, an increase of 2.2% year-on-year [2]. International Expansion - From January to August, BYD sold over 630,000 passenger cars and pickups overseas, ranking among the top-selling electric vehicle brands in multiple countries [2]. - Overseas revenue for the first half of the year was 135.4 billion yuan, a 50.49% increase year-on-year, accounting for 36% of total revenue [2]. - New energy vehicle factories in Thailand and Brazil are beginning production [2][4]. Strategic Initiatives - BYD plans to expand its product line and enhance overseas production capacity and sales networks by the second half of 2025 [5]. - The high-end brand strategy is a crucial part of BYD's international strategy, with brands like Tengshi and Yangwang set to launch in various overseas markets [5]. Research and Development - BYD invested 30.9 billion yuan in R&D in the first half of the year, a 53% increase, with total R&D investment exceeding 210 billion yuan [7]. - The company has introduced several innovative strategies and technologies, including the Tian Shen Eye intelligent strategy and the Ling Yuan drone [7]. Supply Chain Management - BYD is enhancing collaboration across its supply chain, optimizing payment terms and channel management to create a win-win situation with suppliers and dealers [7].

Core Viewpoint - BYD is committed to enhancing its competitive edge in the automotive industry through strategic development, technological independence, and a multi-brand approach while addressing both domestic and international market opportunities [1] Group 1: Investor Relations Activity - The investor relations activity was a targeted research event held on September 14, 2025, at the BYD Zhengzhou Circuit, attended by 28 invited investors [1] - Key representatives from BYD included Li Qian, Secretary of the Board and General Manager of the Investment Department, and Long Mei, Deputy General Manager of Tengshi Automotive Sales Division [1] Group 2: Competitive Strategy - In response to intense competition in the Chinese automotive market, BYD is focusing on strengthening core technologies, enhancing product competitiveness, and promoting a multi-brand matrix [1] - The company aims to fulfill social responsibilities, maintain market integrity, and protect consumer interests through technological upgrades and high-end, intelligent, and global development [1] Group 3: Overseas Market Opportunities - The overseas automotive market presents significant opportunities, with BYD accelerating its global passenger vehicle business this year [1] - From January to August, BYD sold over 630,000 overseas passenger vehicles and pickups, with plans to expand product lines and sales networks in the second half of 2025 [1] Group 4: High-End Brand Development - BYD is developing high-end brands centered around disruptive technologies, optimizing product matrices, sales channels, and marketing strategies based on market demand [1] - The Tengshi brand is positioned as a new luxury offering focused on technology and safety, covering multiple vehicle models [1] Group 5: R&D Investment - In the first half of 2025, BYD's R&D expenditure reached 30.88 billion yuan, with ongoing investments in smart technology strategies to meet consumer needs and promote global sustainable development [1] Group 6: Market Value Management - BYD is implementing measures to enhance its core business, improve operational standards, and provide returns to investors through cash dividends and share buybacks [1] - Specific actions include a 2025 employee stock ownership plan and recent stock purchases by executives and core personnel [1] Group 7: Robotics Sector Engagement - BYD is exploring the humanoid robotics sector, leveraging its advantages in the new energy industry and technology innovation through collaborations with leading companies [1]

Group 1: Competitive Strategy - BYD is committed to strengthening core technology and enhancing product competitiveness to respond to intensified competition in the automotive industry [2] - The company emphasizes consumer demand and continues to develop a multi-brand matrix [2] - BYD actively collaborates with upstream and downstream partners to promote sustainable development in the automotive industry [3] Group 2: International Market Expansion - BYD's overseas sales of passenger cars and pickups exceeded 630,000 units from January to August 2025, positioning the company among the top sellers of new energy vehicles in multiple countries [4] - The company is expanding its product line and enhancing its global supply chain to capitalize on international market opportunities [4] - High-end brands "Denza" and "Yangwang" are being introduced to various overseas markets as part of BYD's globalization strategy [4] Group 3: Brand Development and Innovation - BYD focuses on innovative technologies to build a high-end brand core, aiming to meet diverse consumer needs for safety, intelligence, and environmental sustainability [5] - The "Denza" brand is positioned as a luxury new energy vehicle brand, covering multiple vehicle types and emphasizing user-centered design [6] Group 4: Research and Development Investment - In the first half of 2025, BYD's R&D expenses reached 30.88 billion RMB, focusing on core technology innovations and sustainable development [6] - The company plans to continue increasing R&D investments to meet the diverse needs of consumers [6] Group 5: Market Value Management - BYD implements cash dividends and stock repurchase strategies to enhance shareholder value, with a planned cash dividend of 39.74 RMB per 10 shares for the 2024 fiscal year [7] - The company has completed a stock purchase plan for employees, acquiring 10.71 million shares, representing 0.3526% of total shares [7] - Senior management and key personnel have increased their holdings in the company, demonstrating confidence in BYD's future [7] Group 6: Future Industry Layout - BYD is actively exploring the field of embodied intelligent robotics, leveraging its strong technology and industry chain to foster new business models [7]

Macro Strategy - The domestic economy is expected to face slight pressure in the second half of the year, but the annual growth target of 5% remains achievable, supported by policy tools and consumption recovery [8] - Key risks include potential declines in exports, consumer spending pressures, and slowdowns in real estate and infrastructure investments [8] - The upcoming U.S. economic data releases are anticipated to show increased volatility, with a higher likelihood of significant deviations from expectations [8] Fixed Income Analysis - The report discusses why domestic commercial banks are unlikely to reduce their balance sheets, citing factors such as the need to support the economy during a slowdown and the current accommodative monetary policy [2][12] - The analysis highlights that the banking sector's capital adequacy ratios and non-performing loan ratios are above regulatory standards, providing a buffer against credit risks [12] - The report suggests that while some smaller banks may consider balance sheet reductions, the overall probability for the entire industry is low [12] Company-Specific Insights 越疆 (02432.HK) - The company reported a revenue of RMB 1.53 billion for H1 2025, a 27.1% year-on-year increase, driven by significant growth in six-axis collaborative robot sales [17] - The gross margin improved to 47.0%, with a notable reduction in net losses due to operational efficiencies [17] - The company has signed a strategic partnership with Yaoshi Bang to explore applications of intelligent robotics in the pharmaceutical sector [17] 伟仕佳杰 (00856.HK) - The company is a leading ICT solutions provider in the Asia-Pacific region, with a focus on cloud computing and AI, expecting revenue growth of 15% to 14% from 2025 to 2027 [18][19] - The Southeast Asian market is a key growth area, with revenue from this region projected to increase significantly [19] - The company has established partnerships with major tech firms, enhancing its service offerings across various sectors [19] 亿纬锂能 (300014) - The company is set to launch its solid-state battery production facility, with an expected annual capacity of nearly 500,000 cells [20] - It anticipates a significant increase in shipments, projecting a 60% year-on-year growth in 2025 [20] - The company is focusing on differentiated products, with plans to expand its production capacity significantly by 2027 [20] 比亚迪 (002594) - The company expects net profits of RMB 450 billion, RMB 589 billion, and RMB 710 billion for 2025 to 2027, maintaining a growth trajectory [20] - The focus on high-end products and international expansion is expected to drive future growth [20] 科士达 (002518) - The company forecasts net profits of RMB 5.8 billion, RMB 8.2 billion, and RMB 11.7 billion for 2025 to 2027, benefiting from the growth in data centers and energy storage [20] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the rapid development of the charging and storage industries [20]

Group 1 - BYD has reported multiple instances of defamatory content circulating online, which has severely damaged its product reputation and brand image. The company has decided to take legal action against specific social media accounts, seeking a public apology and compensation of 3 million yuan [2] - A recent court ruling found that the social media account "Long Zhu - Ji Che" had published a significant amount of false and defamatory information about BYD, resulting in a compensation order of 2.0187 million yuan, which has been executed [4] - In July, BYD sold 344,296 new vehicles, maintaining its position as the global leader in new energy vehicle sales. The sales breakdown includes 315,136 vehicles from the Dynasty and Ocean series, 14,180 from the Fangchengbao, 11,375 from Tengshi, and 339 from Yangwang [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - In August 2025, BYD's sales reached 374,000 units, showing a month-on-month increase, with a focus on high-end products and exports [8] - The company is expected to achieve annual sales of over 5 million units, with a year-on-year growth of over 17%, including 900,000 to 1 million units in exports, representing a 128% increase [8] - The report anticipates a continuous increase in the share of pure electric vehicles and ongoing efforts in high-end product development and international expansion [8] - BYD's battery installations in August increased by 23%, with significant growth in external battery supply, projecting a total installation of 290-300 GWh for the year, a 50% year-on-year increase [8] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 45 billion, 59 billion, and 71 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22, 17, and 14 times [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to reach 777.1 billion yuan in 2024, 924.5 billion yuan in 2025, and 1,047.7 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 29.02%, 18.97%, and 13.33% respectively [1][9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from 40.3 billion yuan in 2024 to 71 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 34% in 2024 and 11.83% in 2025 [1][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 4.42 yuan in 2024, increasing to 7.79 yuan by 2027 [1][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the automotive sector, including Xiaopeng Motors, Geely Automobile, and Seres, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance in the next 12 months [9]. Core Insights - August saw record high sales for multiple new energy vehicle companies, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 13.4% and a month-on-month growth of 7.4% across 11 companies [2][7]. - BYD, the industry leader, reported sales of 371,501 vehicles in August, with a significant increase in exports, which rose by 146% year-on-year [2]. - NIO delivered 31,305 vehicles in August, marking a 55.2% year-on-year increase, while Xiaopeng Motors achieved a 169% year-on-year growth with 37,709 vehicles delivered [3][4]. - The upcoming months are expected to see further growth in sales due to new model launches and promotional activities as the traditional peak sales season approaches [5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Sales Performance - In August, BYD's sales were 371,501 vehicles, maintaining stability year-on-year [2]. - NIO's deliveries reached 31,305 vehicles, a 55.2% increase year-on-year [3]. - Xiaopeng Motors delivered 37,709 vehicles, reflecting a 169% year-on-year growth [4]. - Li Auto's deliveries were 28,529 vehicles, showing a decline of 41% year-on-year [4]. - Overall, the total sales for the sector in August amounted to 669,429 vehicles, a 13.4% increase year-on-year [7]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates strong sales in September, driven by new model launches and promotional strategies from various manufacturers [5]. - Key upcoming models include the Li Auto i6, NIO ES8, and Aion M7, which are expected to enhance market supply [5]. Company Ratings - Xiaopeng Motors (9868 HK/XPEV US) is rated "Buy" due to expected sales and margin improvements from new models [5]. - Geely Automobile (175 HK) is also rated "Buy" following its privatization of Zeekr, which is expected to enhance resource integration [5]. - Seres (601127 CH) is rated "Buy" as its Aion series expands into the high-end market, improving profitability [5].