丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨比亚迪（002594.SZ） [Table_Title] 比亚迪 2026 年 1 月销量点评：海外表现优异国 内持续去库，蓄势待发迎接新周期 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 比亚迪发布 1 月产销。公司 1 月整体销量 21.0 万辆，同比-30.1%，环比-50.0%，乘用车销量 20.6 万辆，同比-30.7%，环比-50.5%。分品牌来看，1 月海洋王朝/方程豹/腾势销量分别为 17.8/2.2/0.6 万辆，同比分别-36.2%/+247.0%/-48.8%，环比分别-48.4%/-57.6%/-66.9%。出海 销量维持高位，1 月出口销量 10.0 万辆，同比+43.3%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 张扬 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524030004 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% 事件评论 丨证券研究报告丨 2026-02-10 公司研究丨点评报告 research.95579.com 1 [Table_sco ...

Core Insights - The commercial landscape of the 2026 Spring Festival Gala is becoming clearer, with major players in sponsorship and collaboration identified, highlighting the event's significance as a cultural and emotional touchstone for audiences across demographics and regions [1][2] Group 1: Changes in Sponsorship Dynamics - Unlike previous years, the 2026 Spring Festival Gala is witnessing a structural shift in commercial forces, with AI applications, technology platforms, and content-based social platforms emerging as the most aggressive players in the sponsorship landscape [2] - Traditional sponsors such as liquor brands and household appliances remain prominent, but AI products and platforms are increasingly appearing, indicating a blend of old and new sponsorship strategies [3][4] - AI applications are not just seeking exposure but are aiming for user education and product recognition during a peak attention period, marking a strategic shift in how brands engage with audiences [5][11] Group 2: Role of Major Platforms - CCTV's Spring Festival Gala remains a strategic high ground for brands, with significant partnerships formed, such as Bilibili becoming the exclusive bullet screen video platform, enhancing interactive experiences [8] - Other platforms like Xiaohongshu and Douyin are also integrating the Spring Festival into their ecosystems, transforming the event into a social experience rather than just a viewing event [9][10] - The collaboration with ByteDance's Volcano Engine as the exclusive AI cloud partner signifies a focus on technical capabilities and real-time interaction, positioning the Spring Festival as a testing ground for AI applications [10] Group 3: AI as a Central Theme - The 2026 Spring Festival is set to be a pivotal year for consumer-level AI, with significant investments in cash red envelopes from companies like Baidu and Tencent, indicating a shift in marketing logic from mere participation to active engagement [12][13][15] - The integration of traditional content with cutting-edge technology aims to reshape how audiences interact with the Spring Festival, moving from passive consumption to active participation [14][19] - The event serves as a critical platform for demonstrating the capabilities of AI applications across various scenarios, reinforcing the importance of the Spring Festival as a comprehensive engagement opportunity for brands [15][18]

Core Insights - BYD sold 210,100 new vehicles in January 2026, although overall sales were surpassed by Geely, indicating competitive pressure in the domestic market [1] - The overseas export performance of BYD remains strong, with passenger cars and pickups reaching 100,000 units sold, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.3% [1] - The sales breakdown by brand shows diversification in BYD's portfolio: 177,500 units for BYD brand, 21,600 units for Fangchengbao brand, 6,002 units for Tengshi brand, and 413 units for Yangwang brand [1] - The sales structure indicates that the overseas market has become a significant growth engine for BYD [1]

Group 1 - The UK automotive market is attracting attention from Chinese manufacturers due to the lack of domestic automakers targeting the mass market and the absence of tariffs on Asian electric vehicle imports [1][3] - The UK automotive market has not yet recovered to its pre-pandemic level of 2.5 million vehicles annually, and the entry of Chinese brands is expected to accelerate this recovery [1] - Chinese brands, led by SAIC's MG, doubled their market share in the UK to 10% last year, with BYD and Chery increasing their shares significantly in December [3][5] Group 2 - New entrants such as Geely, Changan, Xpeng, and Leap Motor have entered the UK market since 2023, with Geely's premium electric brand targeting the UK after entering 12 European markets [3] - BYD plans to introduce its high-end brand Tengshi, while Chery may launch its new energy brand Lepas in the UK [5] - The UK market is projected to see Chinese brands capture 20% of the market share by 2028, with plans to offer not only electric vehicles but also fuel and hybrid models [5]

Macro Strategy - The possibility of a strong start for the economy in Q1 2026 has slightly increased, supported by recent policy implementations and improved economic indicators such as the manufacturing PMI rising to 50.1% in December, marking the first return to the expansion zone since March of the previous year [1][13] - Key factors supporting this optimistic outlook include early implementation of "old-for-new" subsidies to boost consumption, substantial investment support from the "two 500 billion" policies, and a favorable working day count before the Spring Festival [1][13] Fixed Income Market - The bond market is expected to recover in early 2026, driven by the positive impact of the new public fund sales regulations, which allow for more flexible redemption fee arrangements for bond funds [1][15] - In December, the manufacturing PMI increased by 1.7 percentage points, indicating a strong demand-side recovery, while new orders also rose by 1.6 percentage points, suggesting a potential for continued economic improvement [1][15] - The issuance of green bonds and secondary capital bonds has seen fluctuations, with green bond issuance totaling approximately 133.98 billion yuan in the last week of December, a decrease from the previous week [2][20] Company-Specific Insights - BYD (002594) is projected to achieve a net profit of 350/509/664 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with a target price of 140 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [7] - Ugreen Technology (301606) anticipates a net profit growth of 41-59% for 2025, with a central guidance of 6.93 billion yuan, slightly above market expectations [8][9] - Ding Tai High-Tech (301377) has revised its profit forecast upwards due to increased demand for AI PCB, projecting net profits of 4.4/8.1/15.7 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [10] - Century Huatong (002602) is expected to achieve net profits of 50.2/85.9/106.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with a "buy" rating based on its innovative growth strategy in the mobile gaming sector [12]

Core Insights - Two Porsche centers in Zhengzhou and Guizhou have reportedly "run away," leaving customers unable to retrieve their vehicles or services after paying deposits [1][20][27] - Both centers are linked to the same parent company, Dong'an Holdings Group, which is facing internal issues [5][21] Group 1: Incident Overview - On the 24th, social media reported that the Zhengzhou Zhongyuan Porsche Center had emptied overnight, affecting customers who had paid deposits and purchased service packages [3][16] - The Zhengzhou center is the largest Porsche authorized 4S flagship store in Henan, covering an area of 12,000 square meters [3][16] - The Guizhou Mengguan Porsche Center was also reported to be empty on the same day, with customers filing police reports due to unpaid deposits and unfulfilled service packages [20][21] Group 2: Company Background - Dong'an Holdings Group, which owns both Porsche centers, reported a revenue of 6.201 billion yuan and a sales volume of 23,400 units in 2023, ranking 80th in the top 100 Chinese automotive dealer groups [21] - The group operates over 40 subsidiaries and represents multiple brands, including Porsche, BMW, and Audi, as well as several new energy brands [21] Group 3: Industry Context - The challenges faced by Dong'an Holdings reflect broader issues within the automotive dealership industry, particularly as traditional fuel vehicle sales decline [23][27] - Other dealerships, like the Xinfengtai Group, have also reported significant revenue declines and are shifting focus towards new energy vehicles [10][25] - The transition from fuel to electric vehicles has led to a cautious approach among luxury brands, with Porsche recently scaling back its electric vehicle initiatives in China [27]

Core Viewpoint - The 15th National Games torch relay took place simultaneously in Hong Kong, Macau, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, marking the first time the torch was passed in Hong Kong and Macau, highlighting the innovative "three regions, four cities" model and focusing on the synergy of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area [10][11]. Group 1: Technological Integration in Sports - The torch was ignited from "source fire" collected from the deep sea, utilizing solar energy to ignite combustible ice, showcasing the integration of technology and sports [11]. - The event featured advanced technologies such as humanoid robots, unmanned vehicles, and low-altitude flying devices, demonstrating the development of the Greater Bay Area's low-altitude economy and intelligent control technology [11]. - The relay route in Guangzhou spanned 11.6 kilometers, with 4.8 kilometers run by torchbearers and 6.8 kilometers transported by unmanned vehicles, emphasizing the role of technology in the event [12]. Group 2: Cultural and Community Engagement - The torch relay included various activities that highlighted local culture and engaged the community, creating a festive atmosphere for the National Games [13]. - In Macau, traditional dragon and lion dances marked the beginning of the relay, while in Shenzhen, a youth choir performed to celebrate the city and its future [14]. - The relay connected iconic landmarks across the four cities, symbolizing the integration of history and modernity, and the collective aspiration for a world-class city cluster [14]. Group 3: Spirit of Collaboration and Achievement - The torchbearers represented diverse sectors, creating a collective image of perseverance and community spirit, with participants expressing pride in their contributions to the Greater Bay Area's development [15]. - The event was seen as a motivational experience for athletes and ordinary citizens alike, with participants sharing their aspirations for future achievements [15]. - The relay culminated in a unified message of collaboration among the three regions, aiming to write a new chapter for the National Games [16].

Core Insights - BYD reported October sales of 441,706 vehicles, with 436,856 being passenger cars, and overseas sales of passenger cars and pickups reaching 83,524, marking a year-on-year increase of 155.5% [2] Sales Performance - In the month of October, the Dynasty and Ocean series combined sales totaled 395,015 vehicles, while the Fangchengbao sold 31,052 units, Tengshi sold 10,135 units, and Yangwang sold 654 units [2] - Cumulatively, from January to October, BYD sold 3,701,852 vehicles, with overseas sales of passenger cars and pickups reaching 785,103 units [2] New Energy Vehicle Sales - As of the end of October, BYD's cumulative sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 1.42 million units [2] Financial Performance - For the third quarter, BYD reported revenue of 194.985 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.05% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.823 billion yuan, down 32.60% year-on-year; and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 6.891 billion yuan, a decline of 36.65% year-on-year [2] - For the first three quarters, BYD achieved revenue of 566.266 billion yuan, an increase of 12.75% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 23.333 billion yuan, down 7.55% year-on-year; and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 20.49 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.65% year-on-year [2]

Core Insights - BYD has strategically invested in Harmony Auto's overseas electric vehicle platform, iCar Group, acquiring a 10% stake for $40 million, which strengthens their partnership and aims to enhance market competitiveness in overseas markets [1][2][11] - Harmony Auto has been expanding its presence in the electric vehicle sector since 2015 and is now focusing on international markets, particularly in Asia and Europe, to create a second growth curve [2][8] - The investment from BYD reflects a deeper capital connection and aims to leverage BYD's technology and brand influence to solidify Harmony Auto's position in the overseas electric vehicle market [2][12] Investment and Financial Strategy - Prior to BYD's investment, Harmony Auto had already sold 45% of its stake in iCar Group to Epower Global Limited for 330 million yuan, which helped alleviate financial risks by offsetting debts [3][5] - Harmony Auto's stock price surged after announcing the strategic investment, indicating positive market sentiment towards the transaction [3] - The overseas operations of iCar Group have been rapidly expanding, with 40 4S centers and 36 showrooms established across various regions, contributing significantly to Harmony Auto's revenue growth [3][8] Performance Metrics - In the first half of 2025, Harmony Auto reported a 29.1% increase in revenue, with new car sales growing by 36.7%, and a significant improvement in gross profit and net profit margins [6][7] - The overseas market has become a primary revenue source for Harmony Auto, with sales from international markets accounting for 51.3% of total sales [6][8] - Despite the growth, iCar Group has not yet turned a profit, with reported revenues of 0.16 billion yuan and 19.35 billion yuan for 2023 and 2024, respectively, alongside net losses [9][10] Market Dynamics - The partnership between BYD and Harmony Auto is seen as a strategic move to navigate the challenges of the competitive automotive market, particularly in the context of price wars and declining margins in key markets [5][15] - The shift towards an agency model in the automotive industry is noted, where manufacturers retain more control over sales channels, potentially impacting the profitability of traditional dealership models [15] - Analysts predict that BYD's export sales could reach 1 million units by 2025, with iCar Group expected to contribute 7-8% of that volume, indicating a positive outlook for future growth [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - Zhao Changjiang, General Manager of BYD's Tengshi Equation Leopard Direct Sales Division, announced his temporary departure from BYD for personal adjustments, reflecting on his 16-year journey with the company from traditional fuel vehicles to the rise of new energy vehicles and the success of the Tengshi brand in the MPV market [1] Company Performance - In September, Tengshi Automobile sold 12,407 units, maintaining its position as the top luxury MPV in the market [1] - From January to September, Tengshi Automobile's cumulative sales reached 115,605 units, marking a year-on-year growth of 28.2% [1] Leadership Background - Zhao Changjiang joined BYD in 2009, starting from a frontline sales position and gradually advancing to management due to his outstanding performance [1]