Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current seasonal weakening of rebar demand and the increase in production are putting downward pressure on prices, but the continuous inventory reduction and relatively low inventory levels provide support. In January, the inventory accumulation cycle begins, and attention should be paid to the arrival of the inventory accumulation inflection point in late January. The cost side is divergent (iron ore is strong, while coking coal and coke are weak). The real estate demand continues to decline, with limited incremental demand, restricting the upside potential. However, the anti - involution policy is expected to reduce production capacity, providing downside support. In the short term, affected by international geopolitical events, market sentiment is relatively cautious. The daily line on the disk has fallen below the 20 - day moving average, and it is expected to consolidate in a weak and volatile manner [4] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - The rebar futures main contract increased its open interest by 43,067 lots on Monday, with slightly higher trading volume than the previous trading day. The trading volume was 697,016 lots. During the day, it declined with increasing positions, reaching a low of 3097 yuan/ton, a high of 3135 yuan/ton, and closing at 3104 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton or 0.74% [1] - The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream area was 3300 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [1] - The futures price was at a discount of 196 yuan/ton to the spot price, which provided some support for the futures price to a certain extent [1] Fundamental Data Supply - demand situation - Supply side: As of the week ending December 31, rebar production increased by 38,300 tons week - on - week to 1.8822 million tons, rising for three consecutive weeks. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.94%, up 0.62 percentage points week - on - week and 0.84% higher than the same period last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 38.1%, up 0.87 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average hot metal output increased by 85,000 tons week - on - week to 2.2743 million tons, 44,000 tons less than the same period last year. This week's production continued to rise due to the marginal improvement in steel mill profitability, reduced incentive to cut production, and the resumption of some blast furnaces. The supply contraction situation was marginally alleviated, and subsequent pressure emerged [2] - Demand side: The off - season effect deepened, and winter storage was cautious. As of the week ending December 31, the apparent consumption decreased by 22,400 tons week - on - week to 2.0044 million tons. Construction in the north had stopped, and projects in the south were nearing completion. The apparent demand had declined for two consecutive weeks. Traders lacked confidence in the future market, and the restocking pace was slow, mainly purchasing on demand. In the medium - to - long - term, demand was under pressure. The new construction area of real estate continued to decline, infrastructure provided some support but with limited increments, and steel consumption in the manufacturing industry was stable but could not change the overall weak situation [2] Inventory - Inventory continued to decline. As of the week ending December 31, the total inventory decreased by 122,200 tons week - on - week to 4.2203 million tons, declining for 9 consecutive weeks. Among them, the social inventory was 2.8266 million tons, down 115,300 tons week - on - week, declining for 12 consecutive weeks and reaching a three - year low. The steel mill inventory was 1.3937 million tons, slightly down 6900 tons, also at a three - year low, providing strong support. The inventory accumulation inflection point was expected to occur 1 - 2 weeks before the Spring Festival. The steel mill inventory changed from an increase to a decrease, and the social inventory continued to decline, indicating a reduction in inventory pressure in the circulation link [3] Macroeconomic - The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. It focused on stabilizing the real estate market, implementing city - specific policies to control increments, reduce inventory, and optimize supply, and encouraging the acquisition of existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The macroeconomic outlook was moderately positive. The 14th Five - Year Plan provided a transformation path for the steel industry, emphasizing "controlling production capacity, optimizing structure, promoting transformation, and improving quality." In general, incremental demand was relatively limited, but the loose cycle provided some support, and the upper limit of demand determined the pressure [3] Cost - The risk of raw material price fluctuations increased. Coke prices had been lowered in four rounds, weakening cost support. Iron ore prices were strong, but inventory levels were high. Scrap steel prices were relatively stable, providing support for electric furnace costs [3] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Inventory at a three - year low with continued reduction, supply - side anti - involution production cuts, strict production capacity control, policy - supported demand, marginal improvement in post - holiday demand, and a loose macroeconomic outlook [4] - Bearish factors: Excessive post - Spring Festival inventory accumulation and slower inventory reduction, accelerated resumption of blast furnace production, cautious winter storage demand, continuous decline in real estate demand, a decline in iron ore prices from high levels, weakening cost support, restricted exports, and weak economic recovery [4]

Group 1: Coking Coal Market - Coking coal continues to show weakness, reaching a new low in the current phase, with domestic coal production slightly contracting week-on-week [1] - High-frequency data indicates a decrease in mining activity, while import levels remain high, leading to sufficient supply [1] - Demand from coking enterprises is declining, with reduced purchasing enthusiasm and a drop in steel production, resulting in weakened real demand for coking coal [1] Group 2: Polysilicon Market - The photovoltaic market is experiencing an overall decline in demand, leading to increased sales pressure across various segments and early shutdowns for some companies [2] - The polysilicon inventory continues to rise, with a slight increase in warehouse receipts, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [2] - Despite a reduction in production across the supply chain, the weak demand is expected to lead to further inventory accumulation [2] Group 3: Rebar Market - The rebar market is under pressure due to weak demand and reduced production from steel mills, with a slight decline in apparent consumption [3] - Inventory levels are decreasing, but the overall supply-demand situation remains weak, with cost support for steel products lacking [3] - Recent declines in raw material prices have improved profitability for some steel mills, leading to expectations of increased rebar production in the future [3]

Group 1 - The article discusses the evolution of trading strategies and the impact of market changes on traditional trading rules established by the author of "The Wall Street Ghost" [2][3][4] - It highlights the shift from a simpler market structure to a more complex environment dominated by algorithmic trading and high-frequency trading, which has altered the timing and validation of trades [2][6] - The author introduces a new "credit limit" system to adapt to modern market conditions, allowing positions to oscillate near the cost line without immediate liquidation [3][5] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the dangers of adding positions in volatile markets, contrasting past successful strategies with current risks associated with high leverage and rapid market movements [4][5] - It outlines a new approach to position sizing and adding to positions, focusing on independent entry reasons and market depth rather than simply relying on existing profits [5][6] - The concept of "giant volume" has changed, with the author noting that much of the volume in today's market is generated by algorithmic trading and does not necessarily indicate genuine market sentiment [6][7] Group 3 - The article concludes with a reflection on the importance of maintaining rituals in trading, which provide a sense of stability amid the uncertainties of the market [8][9] - It suggests that while trading rules may evolve, the underlying principles of risk management, discipline, and humility remain timeless and essential for traders [9][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous gains, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence recently, while sectors such as nuclear fusion, chips, and non - ferrous metals have emerged. Although short - term index fluctuations have increased, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips due to policy support for the capital market [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is likely to remain volatile under the intertwined bull - bear background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - With the weakening of the US dollar credit and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals. However, there is a significant risk of price correction in the short term [9]. - For most metals, factors such as supply - demand changes, cost fluctuations, and market sentiment affect their prices. For example, copper is supported by supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations; aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong; zinc is expected to be strong in the short term; and nickel may have a short - term downward exploration but is supported in the long term [12][14][16][18]. - For black building materials, although the current real - world demand for steel is weak, the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. The price of iron ore may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [31][33][35]. - For energy and chemical products, rubber is recommended to go long on dips; for crude oil, wait and see in the short term; methanol and urea can be considered for short - term long positions after a decline; and for some chemical products like PVC and ethylene glycol, the supply - demand situation is weak, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [53][55][56][58]. - For agricultural products, the prices of live pigs and eggs are expected to be weak in the short term; soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile; oils are expected to be strong; sugar is recommended to be shorted on rallies; and cotton is likely to be weak in the short term [77][79][82][84][87][89]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market News**: The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have imposed export controls on certain items; some foreign entities have been included in the unreliable entity list; some securities firms have adjusted the margin conversion ratios of certain stocks; and the price of spot gold remains high, with some banks adjusting their related businesses [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the previous continuous rise, the high - flying sectors have shown divergence, and the short - term index fluctuations have increased. However, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts have changed; the daily average sales revenue of the national consumption - related industries during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays has increased year - on - year; and export controls have been imposed on some medium - heavy rare earth - related items [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 6120 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 14513 billion yuan on the day [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The manufacturing PMI has rebounded, but the follow - up social financing and money growth may be under pressure. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver have declined, while the prices of COMEX gold and silver have increased. The US government shutdown has affected the release of economic data, and the Fed's meeting minutes show differences in the outlook for interest rates [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals, but pay attention to short - term price corrections [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market News**: After the National Day, the copper price continued to be strong. The LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory also increased. The spot import loss expanded, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations support the copper price, but the short - term upward pace may slow down [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: On the first day after the National Day, non - ferrous metals generally strengthened. The LME aluminum price rose, and the domestic aluminum inventory increased. The market atmosphere was warm, but the trade situation was still volatile [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and strong [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and the LME zinc price fell. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the zinc export window opened [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai zinc is expected to be strong in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market News**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and the LME lead price also rose. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai lead is expected to be in a wide - range low - level shock in the short term [17]. Nickel - **Market News**: The nickel price rose significantly. The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron price was stable, and the MHP coefficient price increased slightly [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term nickel price may decline, but it is supported in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long on dips [18]. Tin - **Market News**: The tin price was strong. The supply was expected to increase slightly, and the demand in the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors was still weak [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to be high - level volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The carbonate lithium price was stable. The social inventory decreased, and a company obtained mining rights [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand mismatch has led to a decrease in inventory. Pay attention to the supply and demand situation and the market atmosphere [22]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index rose. The domestic and overseas prices changed, and the import window opened [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The alumina market is expected to be volatile. Wait and see for the macro - mood resonance [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: The stainless steel price rose. The raw material prices were stable, and the social inventory decreased slightly [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel price is expected to be range - bound. Pay attention to the RKAB approval progress [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: The cast aluminum alloy price rose. The trading volume increased, and the inventory increased slightly [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream consumption is in the peak season, but the delivery pressure of the near - term contract is large, and the upside space is limited [28]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil remained unchanged [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current real - world demand for steel is weak, but the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. Pay attention to policy signals [31]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The iron ore price rose. The overseas shipment decreased, and the domestic arrival increased. The steel mill's profit rate continued to decline [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The iron ore price may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Pay attention to the "Silver October" performance after restocking [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: The glass price rose, and the inventory increased. The soda ash price fell, and the inventory decreased [34][36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [35][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: The manganese silicon price rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon price fell slightly. The prices are in a shock range [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may first decline and then rise. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [39][40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: The industrial silicon price was stable, and the polysilicon price fell. The supply and demand of industrial silicon changed little, and the polysilicon inventory was limited [42][44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to be range - bound in the short term, and polysilicon may improve if the leading enterprises conduct maintenance [43][46]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market News**: The rubber price stabilized. The tire production rate decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The spot price changed [48][50][52]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Go long on dips and partially build a hedging position [53]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: The crude oil price fell, and the inventories of related products changed. The US EIA data showed inventory changes [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and verify the OPEC's export - price - support intention [55]. Methanol - **Market News**: The methanol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider short - term long positions after a decline [56]. Urea - **Market News**: The urea price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider long positions at a low price [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The pure benzene price was stable, and the styrene price fell. The supply and demand changed, and the inventory increased [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The styrene price may stop falling due to the seasonal peak season [60]. PVC - **Market News**: The PVC price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PVC market is bearish in the medium term. Consider short positions [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The ethylene glycol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [65]. PTA - **Market News**: The PTA price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was affected by maintenance, and the demand was stable [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [67]. Para - Xylene - **Market News**: The para - xylene price rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was affected by PTA maintenance [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the terminal and PTA valuation [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The PE price fell, and the inventory decreased. The supply was limited, and the demand was expected to increase [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may rise in the long term [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The PP price fell, and the inventory was high. The supply was large, and the demand was weak [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and the inventory pressure is high [74]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market News**: The live pig price continued to fall. The slaughtering and sales situation was not good [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The live pig price is expected to be weak in the short term. Short the near - term contract and conduct reverse hedging [77]. Eggs - **Market News**: The egg price generally fell. The supply was greater than the demand, and the market confidence was low [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price is expected to be weak in the short term. Wait for the bottom - building [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: The CBOT soybean price fell slightly. The domestic soybean meal price was stable, and the import cost was affected by multiple factors [80][81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is large. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [82]. Oils - **Market News**: Indonesia is promoting the B50 biodiesel plan. The domestic oil price rose, and the inventory may decrease [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is expected to be strong. Go long on dips [84]. Sugar - **Market News**: The sugar price rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production data was released, and the port waiting quantity increased [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The sugar price is expected to be bearish in the long term. Short on rallies in the fourth quarter [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: The cotton price rebounded slightly. The spot price fell, and the acquisition price was lower than last year [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price is likely to be weak in the short term. There is cost support at the bottom [89].

Group 1 - The main contract for rebar has experienced a daily decline of 2.00%, currently priced at 3278.00 yuan per ton [1]

Group 1 - The main contract for rebar has increased by 2.00% in intraday trading, currently priced at 3220.00 yuan per ton [1]

Core Viewpoint - The main contract for rebar steel has increased by over 2% in a single day, currently priced at 3047.00 yuan per ton [1] Group 1 - The rebar steel market shows a significant upward movement, indicating potential bullish trends in the industry [1]

Group 1 - The main contract for rebar has increased by over 2.00% during the day, currently priced at 3047.00 yuan per ton [1]

Group 1 - The main contract for rebar has increased by 2.00% during the day, currently priced at 3115.00 yuan per ton [1]