行业 镍日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 7 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 镍观点： 宏观氛围一片大好，美国攻占委内瑞拉并再次表达吞并格陵兰岛的意愿，全 球资源争夺愈演愈烈，镍价在强势氛围下延续上涨势头，6 日大涨 4.13%逼近 14 万/吨阶段性高点。总持仓小幅增加 3889 手至 36 万手。镍价大幅上涨带动产业链 其他产品价格也在持续攀升，6 日 NPI 报价环比增 6.5 至 936.5 元/镍点，短期保 持反弹对待；镍盐价格环比增 500 至 28700 元/吨，而伦镍价格反弹亦会带动镍盐 即期成本走高，镍盐价格短期延续回升态势。盘面来看，资金在印尼 RKAB 配额削 减消息刺激下炒作情绪仍不减，最新消息上，印尼 ...

行业 镍日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 6 日 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 镍观点： 26 年首个交易日沪镍延续偏强势头运行，盘中继续刷新阶段性高点至 13.6 万/吨以上，收盘回落至 13.4 万/吨，较上日收涨 0.57%，总持仓增加 1.8 万手至 35.7 万手。镍价大幅上涨带动产业链其他产品价格也在持续攀升，5 日 NPI 报价 已经增至 930 元/镍点，短期保持反弹对待，在终端消费疲弱基本面未改背景下上 方空间或有限；镍盐价格则大幅上涨至 28215 元/吨，而伦镍价格反弹亦会带动镍 盐即期成本走高 ...

行业 镍日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 31 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1：机构净持仓 图2：机构多空比 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 每日报告 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 镍观点： 30 日沪镍再度大幅上涨，主力最高触及 134480 元/吨，尾盘小幅回落报收于 132390，涨幅 3.86%，总持仓增加 1.8 万手至 34.6 万手。在前期印尼 RKAB 缩减 配额消息刺激之下，资金炒作情绪仍在升温，镍价波动幅度放大。而在镍价大幅 上涨带动下，产业链其他产品价格也在随之攀升，30 日 NPI 报价继续增加 2.5 ...

| 第一部分 前言概要 | 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二部分 市场回顾 | 3 | | | 第三部分 | 过剩向低成本交割品集中，谨防印尼政策风险 | 4 | | 一、供应端增长集中在湿法产线，火法几乎停滞 | | 5 | | 二、印尼镍矿配额政策风险仍需关注 | 10 | | | 第四部分 需求难寻驱动，或有潜在亮点 | 12 | | | 一、经济增长放缓，降息利好有色板块 | 13 | | | 二、不锈钢供需紧平衡，成本有望抬升 | 14 | | | 三、三元电池占比企稳，新质生产力提供潜在增长点 | | 16 | | 第五部分 供需平衡及交易策略 | 21 | | | 免责声明 | | 22 | 有色板块研发报告 镍年报 2025 年 12 月 30 日 镍过剩犹存 印尼政策风险加大 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 宏观方面：货币层面较为宽松，利好有色品种金融属性发挥。但经济大 环境仍有较多隐忧，期待"十五五"开年政策工具。 产业方面：2026 年若无印尼镍矿配额扰动，预计过剩略有收窄至 24.5 万吨，但精炼镍过剩再增加 3 万吨，进一步加剧库存压力。过剩向低成本交 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - The long - term surplus pressure of primary nickel remains significant. Short - term price rebounds of industrial chain products are due to long - term low prices, and should be treated as short - term rebounds. After the macro - optimistic sentiment fades, prices are likely to continue to face pressure [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 11th, Shanghai nickel strengthened again, with the main contract rising 0.8% to 122,130. The spot market had sufficient available supply, but the receiving sentiment was average. The average premium of Jinchuan No.1 nickel decreased by 50 to 2,200 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowinning nickel was - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [7] - The precipitation in the main producing areas of the Philippines in the third quarter has limited impact, and shipments will remain at a high level. The approved quota of RKAB in Indonesia is as high as 310 million wet tons, with a strong expectation of increased nickel ore supply, and prices are under downward pressure, weakening the support at the ore end [7] - Due to the short - term high price of nickel ore, most Indonesian iron plants are still in a state of cost inversion. The NPI price continued to rise, with an average of 919 yuan/nickel point on the 11th. Large stainless steel enterprises are still waiting and have limited acceptance of high - priced raw materials [7] - Nickel salt prices rebounded due to the rigid replenishment of precursors and low inventories of nickel salt plants. On the 11th, it continued to rise by 10 to 27,450 yuan/ton [7] 2. Industry News - Indonesia's National Investment Management Agency Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry and considering acquiring the PT Gunbuster Nickel Industry (GNI) smelter. It plans to prepare an investment plan of over $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through a syndicated loan [8][10] - Bulgaria officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh [9] - A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact with almost no silver, which can significantly reduce production costs while maintaining high performance [9] - Renewable energy storage company Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland, increasing its approved total energy storage capacity to over 1.6 GW [9]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report type: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [2] - Research team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Nickel price trend: On the 6th, Shanghai nickel continued to rise slightly, with the main contract 2509 closing up 0.22% at 121,070. The total open interest of the index decreased by 1,386 to 189,989 lots [7] - Market consumption: The overall consumption is still weak, the trading among traders is not active, the average premium of Jinchuan No. 1 nickel remains flat at 2,250 yuan/ton, and the spot premium range of domestic mainstream brands of electrowinning nickel is -100 - 300 yuan/ton [7] - Supply and price of nickel ore: The supply of nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia is expected to be loose in the future, and the price is under further downward pressure, with the support from the ore end weakening [7] - NPI price: The NPI price continued to rise, with an average of 918 yuan/nickel point on the 6th. Large stainless - steel enterprises are still waiting and have limited acceptance of high - priced raw materials [7] - Nickel salt price: Nickel salt prices are repaired at a low level, and there may be a slight boost in the short term [7] - Market outlook: The current macro - sentiment supports the nickel price to be strong, the industrial chain prices have recovered, but the oversupply pressure remains. After the sentiment fades, the price is likely to continue to be under pressure [7] Group 3: Industry News - Investment in Indonesia's nickel downstream industry: Indonesia's Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry and considering acquiring the GNI smelter. It plans to prepare an investment plan of over $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through a syndicated loan [8][10] - Battery energy storage system in Bulgaria: Bulgaria has officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh [10] - Innovation in solar cells: A research team has developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact with significantly reduced silver usage while maintaining high efficiency, which is expected to reduce production costs [10] - Battery energy storage project in the UK: Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland, with the approved total storage capacity exceeding 1.6 GW [10]

Report Information - Report Name: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The macro - warm atmosphere supports the nickel price to be strong, and the prices in the industrial chain have rebounded. However, the oversupply pressure remains, and the price will still be under pressure after the macro - sentiment fades. It may continue to test the cost support [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 5th, Shanghai nickel fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2509 closed up 0.83% at 120,910. The total open interest of the index decreased by 5,588 to 191,375 lots. The average premium of Jinchuan No.1 nickel decreased by 100 to 2,250 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The quoted range of spot premium and discount of domestic mainstream brands of electrowinning nickel was - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [7]. - The supply of nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia is expected to be loose in the future, and the price has further downward pressure, with the support from the ore end weakening. The price of NPI continued to rise, with an average of 916 yuan/nickel point on the 5th. But the nickel ore price is still high in the short - term, and most Indonesian iron plants are still in a state of cost inversion. Due to the low spot market of stainless steel despite the price recovery, the traditional off - season consumption and high inventory limit the acceptance of high raw material prices, so the upward trend of NPI may not last long [7]. - The price of nickel salt has recovered from the low level due to the rigid replenishment of precursors and the low inventory of nickel salt plants, but the recovery space may be limited. The macro - environment has not yet substantially boosted the demand. The nickel industry does not directly benefit from the anti - involution logic. Attention should be paid to whether there are production - cut policies in the stainless steel industry. The nickel market is difficult to have substantial improvement in the short term [7]. 2. Industry News - Indonesia's National Investment Management Agency Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the downstream nickel industry. It is considering acquiring the PT Gunbuster Nickel Industry (GNI) smelter in Central Sulawesi. The acquisition plan is still in the evaluation stage, and the state - owned mining holding company Mind ID is likely to be the main partner. Danantara expects to prepare an investment plan of over $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through a syndicated loan to help GNI relieve liquidity pressure [8][10]. - Bulgaria officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh. This is the first step towards the goal of deploying 10,000 MWh of battery energy storage capacity within a year [10]. - A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel (Ni) contact with almost no silver (Ag). It significantly reduces the silver usage from 13 - 20 mg/W to below 0.5 mg/W while maintaining almost the same efficiency, which is expected to reduce production costs and improve sustainability and scalability [10]. - Renewable energy storage company Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system (BESS) project in North Ayrshire, Scotland. This is the tenth approved project in the past 17 months, with the total approved storage capacity exceeding 1.6 GW [10].

Report Information - Report Type: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: June 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Core Viewpoint - On the 12th, Shanghai nickel opened low and moved lower, with the main contract falling to around 120,000, and the intraday decline reaching 1.24%. The total open interest of the index increased by 14,517 to 175,807 lots. The spot market trading was relatively light. The premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 25 to 2,425 yuan/ton, and the spot premium of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was reported at -100 - 300 yuan/ton. The nickel industry surplus continues, and with the reduction of macro and policy interference, nickel prices return to the fundamental surplus trading logic. However, the firmness of the Indonesian mine end still provides bottom support for nickel prices. When the nickel price falls below 120,000, long hedging positions can try to intervene in batches, but pay attention to risk control [8]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Shanghai nickel opened low and moved lower on the 12th, with the main contract approaching the 120,000 mark, and the intraday decline reaching 1.24%. The total open interest of the index increased by 14,517 to 175,807 lots. The spot market trading was light, with the Jinchuan nickel premium decreasing and the domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel spot premium ranging from -100 to 300 yuan/ton [8]. - **Industry Fundamentals**: In the nickel ore sector, the HPM in Indonesia is expected to decline in the second half of June, which may lead to a drop in the Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price. The NPI cost remains high due to the firmness of nickel ore, and both Indonesia and China are facing losses, with high pressure on capacity clearance. The price of nickel sulfate remains flat at 27,815, and the weak ternary battery market drags down nickel demand. Stainless steel mills are in the red, with reduced production schedules and high inventories, and the demand for nickel can only maintain the minimum requirement [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: When the nickel price falls below 120,000, long hedging positions can try to intervene in batches, but pay attention to risk control [8]. 2. Industry News - **Indonesian Nickel Ore Benchmark Price**: SMM expects the HPM of Indonesian domestic - trade nickel ore to remain stable with a slight decline in the first half of June, with a 0.06% decrease compared to the previous period. The HMA in the first half of June is 15,405 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton. The HPM prices of different - grade nickel ores are expected to decline slightly [11]. - **Energy Storage Projects**: Bulgaria launched a 124 - megawatt/496.2 - megawatt - hour battery energy storage system. Renewable energy storage company Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - megawatt battery energy storage system project in Scotland, which will contribute to the UK's power system resilience and Scotland's energy goals [12][13]. - **Solar Cell Innovation**: A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact with almost no silver, which significantly reduces silver consumption while maintaining high efficiency, potentially reducing production costs and improving sustainability [12].