（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，2月13日，伦铝期货短线走低，日内跌0.34%，现报3089美元/吨。 ...

Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai fell over 2% to 102,590 yuan, while London copper hovered around $13,000 [4] - The macroeconomic outlook is neutral to bearish, with a cooling U.S. employment market and support for a strong dollar impacting copper prices [5][19] - The fundamental outlook is neutral to bullish, with a fixed investment target of 180 billion yuan for the Southern Power Grid by 2026, and a planned investment of over 24 billion yuan in Q1, a 20% year-on-year increase [6][19] - Short-term price fluctuations are expected to remain resilient due to global strategic reserves intensifying supply-demand tensions [6][19] - Today's trading range for Shanghai copper is suggested to be between 101,000 and 105,000 yuan per ton, with strategies recommending reducing positions before the holiday [6][19] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - The macro sentiment is showing marginal recovery, leading to an overall rebound in the non-ferrous sector [20] - Nickel supply is tight due to weather-related shipping disruptions in the Philippines and rainfall affecting Indonesian supply [20] - The stainless steel market faces oversupply pressures, with limited terminal demand, although suppliers are showing a strong willingness to maintain prices due to low arrivals and strong cost support [20][21] Group 3: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market experienced a general decline, with alumina futures prices slightly dropping while spot prices stabilized [22] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association indicated that a "reverse involution" policy for alumina will be introduced, but its impact will take time to materialize [22] - In January, 64.9% of the alumina industry was operating at a loss, with 23.8% of production facing cash cost losses [22] - The trading range for alumina futures is suggested to be between 2,600 and 2,900 yuan per ton, with a strategy of high selling and low buying within this range [23][22] Group 4: Zinc Market - Zinc prices showed weak fluctuations, influenced by mixed macroeconomic data from the U.S. [24] - February is expected to see a slight increase in processing fees, with a reduction in supply exceeding 50,000 tons due to production days and maintenance [24] - The demand side is affected by environmental controls in the north and reduced operations in galvanizing, leading to a return to a quiet market ahead of the holiday [24] Group 5: Lead Market - Lead prices showed a strong fluctuation, with tight supply from primary lead and a relatively loose supply from recycled lead due to transportation costs [25] - The market is entering a traditional off-season, with downstream purchasing primarily driven by essential needs, leading to an increase in inventory [25] - The trading range for lead futures is suggested to be between 16,500 and 17,500 yuan per ton [25] Group 6: Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced a slight rebound, although some gains were given back due to neutral to hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials [27] - The market is influenced by mixed economic data, with the ADP employment change significantly below expectations, while the ISM non-manufacturing PMI was slightly above expectations [27] - The long-term bullish logic for precious metals remains intact despite short-term volatility risks, with gold long positions recommended to be held [27]

Core Insights - LME metal futures showed mixed performance, with aluminum reaching its highest level since April 2022 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the close, copper was reported at $13,024, down $159, a decrease of 1.21% [1] - Aluminum closed at $3,212.5, up $17, an increase of 0.53%, marking a four-day consecutive rise [1] - Zinc was reported at $3,358.5, up $7.5, an increase of 0.22% [1] - Lead closed at $2,028, down $8, a decrease of 0.39% [1] - Tin was reported at $54,865, up $370, an increase of 0.68% [1] - Nickel closed at $18,235, down $355, a decrease of 1.91% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the Greenland issue, the US and Europe imposed tariffs on each other over the weekend, leading to a resurgence of risk aversion. China's GDP in 2025 increased by 5% year-on-year, and the economic data in December generally met expectations. Market sentiment was slightly optimistic, the RMB soared to a new high, and the US dollar declined slightly. Non-ferrous metals fluctuated throughout the day and all fell. Today, Shanghai Aluminum fell, London Aluminum rose, and domestic spot aluminum fell. [4] - Technically, US crude oil tumbled today, while London Aluminum rose slightly and traded around $3,152. Shanghai Aluminum rebounded slightly after hitting the bottom today, closing at 24,090, with a neutral technical pattern. The trading volume of Shanghai Aluminum decreased and the positions remained stable, and market sentiment was cautious. Recently, the situation in Russia and Ukraine remains unclear, the international situation is tense, and market sentiment is neutral. At the same time, the speculation on metals has cooled down slightly, and capital enthusiasm has declined. In the short term, aluminum prices will fluctuate at a high level. In the future, if copper prices fall, it may drive aluminum prices weaker. At the same time, attention should be paid to the situation of spot demand. [5] Summary by Related Catalog Market Situation - Today, Shanghai Aluminum closed at 24,090, and the spot price was 23,870. The spot price was at a discount of -220 points to the futures price. This week, Shanghai Aluminum rose first and then fell, and the spot discount widened to -150 yuan. Supply exceeded demand, and spot trading improved. [4] - This week, the social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased significantly, and the alumina inventory increased slightly. The aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased significantly, and the spot demand was poor at the high level in the off-season. The LME inventory decreased slightly, and the LME spot price had a premium of $9. Overseas spot demand improved. [4] - This week, the RMB exchange rate rose significantly, and the Shanghai-London ratio of aluminum prices dropped to 7.62. The trends of the domestic and overseas markets were generally the same. [4] Data Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount | LME Aluminum - Futures-Spot Price Difference | Main Contract Shanghai-London Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | January 13 | 6.9735 | -90 | 10 | 7.76 | | January 14 | 6.9714 | -120 | 22 | 7.66 | | January 15 | 6.9629 | -140 | 17 | 7.68 | | January 16 | 6.9674 | -170 | 1 | 7.68 | | January 19 | 6.9581 | -150 | 9 | 7.62 | [6]

Core Insights - On January 2, 2026, London aluminum prices reached $3,000 per ton, marking the first time since 2022 that prices have hit this level [3][7]. Group 1 - The significant price increase in aluminum indicates a potential recovery in the market after a prolonged period of lower prices [3][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Last week, Shanghai copper increased in volume and price, mainly due to the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the weakening of the US dollar index. On Friday night, copper prices continued to rise, with LME copper breaking through the $11,000 mark and hitting a new high, while Shanghai copper approached the 89,000 mark. Technically, the open interest of Shanghai copper increased from 510,000 contracts to 560,000 contracts last week, showing strong short - term upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the end - October high. If it breaks through, it may maintain a strong trend in the short term [6][63]. - Aluminum: Last week, aluminum prices rebounded with a decrease in positions, and there was a trend of increasing positions and rising prices on Friday night. This rebound was mainly driven by macro factors, such as the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The decline in the Shanghai - LME ratio indicated that the rise was mainly led by the external market. Globally, the low inventory of electrolytic aluminum supported the price. However, as aluminum prices rebounded, domestic downstream demand decreased, and the spot discount widened. Technically, attention can be paid to the pressure at the 22,000 mark [7][63]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - Last week, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut continued to rise, with the probability of a December rate cut increasing from 70% to nearly 90%. Correspondingly, the US dollar index weakened from the 100 mark, which was beneficial to non - ferrous metals and precious metals [11]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Quantity - Price Trend - Last week, Shanghai copper increased in volume and price. On Friday night, copper prices continued to rise, with LME copper breaking through the $11,000 mark and Shanghai copper approaching the 89,000 mark. The open interest of Shanghai copper increased from 510,000 contracts to 560,000 contracts, indicating increased capital attention and strong short - term upward momentum [6][63]. 3.2.2 Copper Ore Shortage - Last week, the port inventory of copper ore continued to rise from a low level and was close to the same - period level in previous years. On November 28, Mysteel's port inventory of copper ore was 674,000 tons, an increase of 78,000 tons from the previous week. In November, with the rise in sulfuric acid prices, the upstream smelting profit also rebounded [25]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Copper Stockpiling - On November 27, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic copper was 171,600 tons, a weekly decrease of 20,500 tons, while the inventory in COMEX + LME was 574,800 tons, a weekly increase of 18,400 tons [27]. 3.2.4 Downstream Primary Sector - As copper prices rose, the downstream market showed a situation of "not prosperous in the peak season", and the copper product start - up rate declined month - on - month in October. In November, the overall downstream entered the off - season, and copper prices remained high. It is expected that the downstream capacity utilization rate will remain at a low level in November [29]. 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Quantity - Price Trend - Last week, aluminum prices rebounded with a decrease in positions, and there was a trend of increasing positions and rising prices on Friday night. The decline in the Shanghai - LME ratio indicated that the rise was mainly led by the external market. Technically, attention can be paid to the pressure at the 22,000 mark [7][63]. 3.3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - On November 21, the port inventory of bauxite was 28.0705 million tons, an increase of 46,900 tons from the previous week and an increase of 9.7005 million tons compared with the same period in 2024. Last week, alumina was weak, with the main contract price falling below the 2700 mark, while aluminum prices rose with the non - ferrous metal sector, and the profit of upstream electrolytic aluminum widened [45][47]. 3.3.3 Slowing Depletion of Electrolytic Aluminum - In November, as aluminum prices continued to rise, overseas electrolytic aluminum showed a stockpiling trend, and the depletion of domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory slowed down. On November 27, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 590,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous week, and the overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 544,700 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from the previous week [50]. 3.3.4 Downstream Primary Sector - Last week, the processing fee of aluminum rods generally declined from a high level, mainly due to the rebound of aluminum prices, which led to a decrease in downstream demand. The inventory of aluminum rods remained at a low level, with the in - factory inventory at 91,400 tons, a slight increase of 2,900 tons from the previous week [56][59].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US economy shows a mixed picture with manufacturing in contraction and inflation pressure rising, while the EU and the US are in trade negotiations and the ECB maintains interest rates. Domestically, the stock and commodity markets are positive, the bond market is under pressure, and various commodities show different trends affected by multiple factors such as trade policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and market sentiment [2][3] - The prices of precious metals are in回调 due to the expected easing of trade tensions; copper prices are expected to remain high - level volatile; aluminum prices are likely to oscillate; alumina prices will stay in a short - term oscillation; zinc prices will adjust at a high level; lead prices will move horizontally; tin prices will oscillate at a high level; industrial silicon prices will be strongly oscillating; lithium carbonate prices will have a wide - range oscillation; nickel prices may oscillate strongly; crude oil prices will have their center of gravity lifted; steel prices will oscillate; iron ore prices will oscillate; and the prices of bean and rapeseed meal will have a wide - range oscillation, while palm oil prices may oscillate strongly [4][6][8][10][11][13][15][16][18][20][22][24][25][26][28] Summaries According to Related Catalogs Macroeconomy - Overseas: The US 7 - month Markit manufacturing PMI is 49.5 (in contraction), the service PMI is 55.2 (a new high for the year), inflation pressure rises, and business confidence drops. The EU and the US are close to a trade deal, but the EU has approved a 930 - billion - euro anti - tariff measure on US products. The ECB maintains interest rates, and the market's expectation of further rate cuts weakens [2] - Domestic: The A - share market breaks through 3600 points, with a trading volume of about 1.9 trillion yuan. The bond market is under pressure, and the 10Y and 30Y treasury bond rates rise to 1.74% and 1.95% respectively [3] Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures fall 0.77% to $3371.3 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fall 0.55% to $39.285 per ounce. The expected easing of global trade tensions weakens the demand for hedging, putting pressure on precious metals [4] Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper slightly falls. The US manufacturing contraction and the approaching tariff deadline make the overseas capital market cautious. Freeport's second - quarter copper production is 43.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.1%. Copper prices are expected to remain high - level volatile [6][7] Aluminum - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closes at 20760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.41%. The increase in the US dollar index and the weak US manufacturing PMI increase the pressure on aluminum prices. The inventory of aluminum ingots accumulates, while the inventory of aluminum rods decreases. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate [8][9] Alumina - The main contract of alumina futures closes at 3355 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.81%. The low - level warehouse receipt inventory provides support for alumina prices, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [10] Zinc - The main contract of Shanghai zinc has an intraday volatile and strong trend. The decrease in the position of an LME seat, the slight increase in LME inventory, and the slight discount of LME0 - 3 spot ease the squeeze - out concern. Zinc prices are expected to adjust at a high level [11][12] Lead - The main contract of Shanghai lead moves horizontally. The high inventory pressure is not relieved, and the consumption improvement is insufficient. Lead prices are expected to move horizontally in the short term, and attention should be paid to consumption variables [13][14] Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin oscillates at a high level. The decrease in the position of an LME seat eases the squeeze - out concern, but the rainy season in Southeast Asia may affect the transportation of tin ore in Myanmar. Tin prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [15] Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon is strongly oscillating. The supply side is in a passive contraction state, and the demand side shows different trends. Supported by policies, the prices are expected to be strongly oscillating, but the risk of high - level decline should be guarded against [16][17] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate runs strongly, and the spot price slightly rises. The market is affected by various news, and the price amplitude increases. The spot market is cold, and lithium prices will have a wide - range oscillation in the short term [18][19] Nickel - Nickel prices oscillate weakly. The supply of nickel ore is becoming more abundant, and the cost pressure of nickel iron still exists. The introduction of the price draft may make nickel prices oscillate strongly [20][21] Crude Oil - Crude oil prices oscillate. The short - term geopolitical risk cools down, the EIA crude oil inventory decreases more than expected, and the macro - sentiment is strengthening, pushing up the center of gravity of crude oil prices [22][23] Steel (Screw and Coil) - Steel futures oscillate. Multiple departments are promoting anti - involution competition rectification. The supply and demand of steel are in a weak balance. Steel prices are expected to oscillate [24] Iron Ore - Iron ore futures oscillate at a high level. The supply of iron ore is sufficient, and the cost increase due to the rise of coke prices suppresses the bargaining space of iron ore. The demand remains resilient. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [25] Bean and Rapeseed Meal - The prices of bean and rapeseed meal fall. The water - heat conditions in the US soybean - producing areas are good, and the export sales of new - crop soybeans are slow. Affected by the protein - reduction policy, the long - position funds reduce their positions, and the prices are expected to have a wide - range oscillation [26][27] Palm Oil - Palm oil prices may oscillate strongly. The production of Malaysian palm oil is in an increasing cycle, and the potential demand from countries like India provides support. The market expects future supply to tighten [28][29]