Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily [1] - Date: September 25, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel markets showed a strong and volatile trend. The nickel ore supply was unstable due to sanctions on mining companies in Indonesia and the approaching quota approval in October. The cobalt price was expected to rise, driving up the prices of MHP and nickel salts. The nickel iron price decreased due to stainless - steel demand constraints, and the stainless - steel market was also strong but with weak spot trading. The decline of the US dollar in the macro - level led to an upward movement in the non - ferrous metals market [3] - There were both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors included the proposed revision of the HPM formula in Indonesia, the shortening of the nickel ore quota period, continuous de - stocking of stainless steel, and the takeover of some nickel - producing areas. Negative factors included high pure nickel inventory, tariff disturbances, and weak stainless - steel spot trading [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Volatility Forecast - **Nickel**: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel was 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - **Stainless Steel**: The predicted price range of stainless steel was 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 6.95% and a historical percentile of 0.3% [2] Risk Management Strategies Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price declined and inventory had impairment risk, it was recommended to sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [2] - **Procurement Management**: When the company had future production procurement needs and was worried about rising raw material prices, it was recommended to buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [2] Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price declined and inventory had impairment risk, it was recommended to sell stainless - steel futures (SS main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [3] - **Procurement Management**: When the company had future production procurement needs and was worried about rising raw material prices, it was recommended to buy stainless - steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [3] Market Data Nickel | Indicator | Latest Value |环比差值 |环比 | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Nickel Main Contract | 122,990 | 0 | 0% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 1 | 122,990 | 1,540 | 1.27% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 2 | 123,160 | 1,530 | 1.26% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 3 | 123,350 | 1,460 | 1.26% | yuan/ton | | LME Nickel 3M | 15,240 | - 195 | - 1.20% | US dollars/ton | | Trading Volume | 177,030 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Open Interest | 99,642 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 25,153 | 48 | 0.19% | tons | | Main Contract Basis | - 505 | 185 | - 26.8% | yuan/ton | [5] Stainless Steel | Indicator | Latest Value |环比差值 |环比 | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stainless Steel Main Contract | 12,930 | 0 | 0% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 1 | 12,930 | 35 | 0.27% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 2 | 12,970 | 30 | 0.23% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 3 | 13,030 | 35 | 0.27% | yuan/ton | | Trading Volume | 129,897 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Open Interest | 109,896 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 87,505 | - 298 | - 0.34% | tons | | Main Contract Basis | 640 | - 35 | - 5.19% | yuan/ton | [5] Inventory Data | Inventory Type | Latest Value | Change from Previous Period | | --- | --- | --- | | Domestic Social Inventory of Nickel | 41,484 tons | + 429 tons | | LME Nickel Inventory | 230,586 tons | 0 tons | | Stainless Steel Social Inventory | 909 tons | + 11.8 tons | | Nickel Pig Iron Inventory | 28,652 tons | - 614.5 tons | [6] Positive and Negative Factors - **Positive Factors**: The Indonesian APNI planned to revise the HPM formula, the nickel ore quota period was shortened from three years to one year, stainless steel had been de - stocking for several weeks, and the Indonesian forestry working group took over part of the nickel - producing area of PT Weda Bay [5] - **Negative Factors**: The pure nickel inventory was high, there were still tariff disturbances between China and the US, the EU stainless - steel import tariff was uncertain, the anti - dumping duty on Chinese stainless - steel thick plates in South Korea was implemented, and the stainless - steel spot trading was weak [5]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report name: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Research team: Non - ferrous metals research team [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The Shanghai nickel market weakened following the overall commodity trend. The main contract 2510 opened lower and declined, hitting a low of 120,500 yuan/ton during the session and closing down 0.58% at 120,730 yuan. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel remained flat at 2,350 yuan, and the premium or discount of domestic electrowon nickel was reported at - 100 - 200 yuan. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 1 yuan to 955.5 yuan/nickel point, and the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained flat at 28,150 yuan/ton. Indonesia will start the 2026 approval work in October, and the adjustment of the RKAB approval cycle may still disrupt the mine supply in the second half of the year, limiting the deep decline of nickel ore. NPI remains strong due to cost support and demand recovery expectations, but the improvement space for stainless steel terminals is limited. The profit of nickel - iron enterprises has recovered significantly, and the subsequent upward space may be restricted. The pre - holiday stocking demand supports the nickel salt price to remain strong. Overall, the surplus pressure of refined nickel in the primary nickel supply structure is still significant, and the pure nickel inventory is accumulating. However, at the current position, it is also difficult to decline deeply due to the support of nickel ore and cost. Pay attention to the supply - side news from Indonesia, and the main operating range can be referred to 119,000 - 125,000 yuan [8] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai nickel market followed the overall commodity trend and weakened. The main contract 2510 opened lower and declined, with the lowest price during the session reaching 120,500 yuan/ton and closing down 0.58% at 120,730 yuan. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel was flat at 2,350 yuan, and the premium or discount of domestic electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 1 yuan to 955.5 yuan/nickel point, and the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained flat at 28,150 yuan/ton [8] - Indonesia will start the 2026 approval work in October, and the adjustment of the RKAB approval cycle may disrupt the mine supply in the second half of the year, so the deep decline of nickel ore is limited. NPI is strong due to cost support and demand recovery expectations, but the improvement space for stainless steel terminals is limited. The profit of nickel - iron enterprises has recovered significantly, and the subsequent upward space may be restricted. The pre - holiday stocking demand supports the nickel salt price to remain strong. The surplus pressure of refined nickel in the primary nickel supply structure is significant, and the pure nickel inventory is accumulating. At the current position, it is difficult to decline deeply due to the support of nickel ore and cost. Pay attention to the supply - side news from Indonesia, and the main operating range can be referred to 119,000 - 125,000 yuan [8] Group 5: Industry News - The Democratic Republic of the Congo is considering extending the cobalt export ban for at least two months while formulating a quota system. The decision is to allow the cobalt price to recover further and have more time to implement the quota framework. The decision needs to be approved by the presidential palace. The previous extension expired on September 21, and an official document is expected to be issued this Sunday or next Monday. The news will boost the sentiment of the MHP cobalt coefficient and may drive up its price. If the ban is extended, the inventory of smelting enterprises is expected to remain below the safety level [9] - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng said at a press conference that the details of the "15th Five - Year Plan" and future financial reforms will be further communicated after the central government's unified deployment. China's financial system is generally stable, and the financial market is operating smoothly. When responding to the Fed's interest rate cut, he said that multiple monetary policy tools will be comprehensively used to ensure sufficient liquidity according to the macro - economic situation [10] - Indonesia's forest law enforcement working group will conduct a centralized rectification of mines. Previously, it took similar actions in the palm oil industry, taking over 3.3 million hectares of illegal plantations. The focus of this action is to regain national control of forests, and enterprises need to return illegal profits to the state. Some cases may enter criminal investigations. The seized mines will be temporarily managed by the state - owned enterprise department. President Prabowo has promised to crack down on illegal natural resource exploitation [10] - FPX Nickel announced its participation in two important sustainable development initiatives in 2025, joining the Mining Association of Canada (MAC) and committing to follow its "Towards Sustainable Mining (TSM)" framework, and also signing the United Nations Global Compact. The company's president and CEO said it reflects the company's long - standing values of environmental protection, transparency, and responsibility, which will create long - term value for the Baptiste nickel project and stakeholders [10]

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [2] - Analysts: Xia Yingying, Guan Chenghan [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel futures markets showed weak intraday oscillations, with the overall non - ferrous metals market relatively soft and no significant changes in the fundamentals [4]. - There are still supports in the new energy sector. The nickel salt supply is tight, and price increases are frequent, expected to remain strong. The nickel - iron price is firm, but high - price transactions have declined [4]. - The stainless steel futures price once fell below 12,900, and the spot market offered discounts. There was some improvement in transactions, but the fundamental momentum is currently calming down, and attention should be paid to subsequent macro - level trends [4]. - Although the takeover of a small part of the PT Weda Bay nickel mine has limited impact on actual production, it has raised concerns about the nickel ore supply [4][6]. - The news of Antam and CATL promoting the construction of an integrated nickel smelter in Indonesia supports the long - term demand for nickel in the new energy field [6] Key Points by Category Price Forecast - The predicted price range for Shanghai nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3]. - The predicted price range for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.61% and a historical percentile of 1.1% [3] Risk Management Strategies Shanghai Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When facing the risk of product price decline and inventory depreciation, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [3] Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When facing the risk of product price decline and inventory depreciation, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [4]. - **Procurement Management**: When worried about rising raw material prices, buy stainless steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [4] Market Data Nickel Futures - The closing price of Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 121,790 yuan/ton, with a 0% change [8]. - The closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous - one contract is 121,990 yuan/ton, down 0.67% [8]. - The closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous - two contract is 122,180 yuan/ton, down 0.63% [8]. - The closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous - three contract is 122,370 yuan/ton, down 0.63% [8]. - The LME nickel 3M price is 15,445 US dollars/ton, down 0.63% [8] Stainless Steel Futures - The closing price of stainless steel main - continuous contract is 12,935 yuan/ton, with a 0% change [11]. - The closing price of stainless steel continuous - one contract is 12,935 yuan/ton, down 0.27% [11]. - The closing price of stainless steel continuous - two contract is 12,985 yuan/ton, down 0.27% [11]. - The closing price of stainless steel continuous - three contract is 13,060 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [11] Inventory Data - Domestic social nickel inventory is 41,055 tons, an increase of 1,125 tons [12]. - LME nickel inventory is 228,468 tons, an increase of 2,034 tons [12]. - Stainless steel social inventory is 902,600 tons, a decrease of 16,100 tons [13]. - Nickel pig iron inventory is 28,652 tons, a decrease of 614.5 tons [13] News and Event Analysis Positive Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula by adding elements such as iron and cobalt [7]. - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year [7]. - Stainless steel inventories have decreased for several consecutive weeks [7]. - The takeover of part of the PT Weda Bay nickel mine by the Indonesian forestry working group [7]. - CATL and Antam promote the construction of an integrated nickel smelter in Indonesia [7][6] Negative Factors - High pure nickel inventories [7]. - Sino - US tariff disturbances [7]. - Uncertainty in the EU's stainless steel import tariffs has increased [7]. - South Korea's anti - dumping duty on Chinese stainless steel thick plates has been implemented [7]. - Relatively weak stainless steel spot transactions [7]

Report Information - Report Name: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - The long - term surplus pressure of primary nickel remains significant. Short - term price rebounds of industrial chain products are due to long - term low prices, and should be treated as short - term rebounds. After the macro - optimistic sentiment fades, prices are likely to continue to face pressure [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 11th, Shanghai nickel strengthened again, with the main contract rising 0.8% to 122,130. The spot market had sufficient available supply, but the receiving sentiment was average. The average premium of Jinchuan No.1 nickel decreased by 50 to 2,200 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowinning nickel was - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [7] - The precipitation in the main producing areas of the Philippines in the third quarter has limited impact, and shipments will remain at a high level. The approved quota of RKAB in Indonesia is as high as 310 million wet tons, with a strong expectation of increased nickel ore supply, and prices are under downward pressure, weakening the support at the ore end [7] - Due to the short - term high price of nickel ore, most Indonesian iron plants are still in a state of cost inversion. The NPI price continued to rise, with an average of 919 yuan/nickel point on the 11th. Large stainless steel enterprises are still waiting and have limited acceptance of high - priced raw materials [7] - Nickel salt prices rebounded due to the rigid replenishment of precursors and low inventories of nickel salt plants. On the 11th, it continued to rise by 10 to 27,450 yuan/ton [7] 2. Industry News - Indonesia's National Investment Management Agency Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry and considering acquiring the PT Gunbuster Nickel Industry (GNI) smelter. It plans to prepare an investment plan of over $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through a syndicated loan [8][10] - Bulgaria officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh [9] - A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact with almost no silver, which can significantly reduce production costs while maintaining high performance [9] - Renewable energy storage company Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland, increasing its approved total energy storage capacity to over 1.6 GW [9]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report type: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [2] - Research team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Nickel price trend: On the 6th, Shanghai nickel continued to rise slightly, with the main contract 2509 closing up 0.22% at 121,070. The total open interest of the index decreased by 1,386 to 189,989 lots [7] - Market consumption: The overall consumption is still weak, the trading among traders is not active, the average premium of Jinchuan No. 1 nickel remains flat at 2,250 yuan/ton, and the spot premium range of domestic mainstream brands of electrowinning nickel is -100 - 300 yuan/ton [7] - Supply and price of nickel ore: The supply of nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia is expected to be loose in the future, and the price is under further downward pressure, with the support from the ore end weakening [7] - NPI price: The NPI price continued to rise, with an average of 918 yuan/nickel point on the 6th. Large stainless - steel enterprises are still waiting and have limited acceptance of high - priced raw materials [7] - Nickel salt price: Nickel salt prices are repaired at a low level, and there may be a slight boost in the short term [7] - Market outlook: The current macro - sentiment supports the nickel price to be strong, the industrial chain prices have recovered, but the oversupply pressure remains. After the sentiment fades, the price is likely to continue to be under pressure [7] Group 3: Industry News - Investment in Indonesia's nickel downstream industry: Indonesia's Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry and considering acquiring the GNI smelter. It plans to prepare an investment plan of over $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through a syndicated loan [8][10] - Battery energy storage system in Bulgaria: Bulgaria has officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh [10] - Innovation in solar cells: A research team has developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact with significantly reduced silver usage while maintaining high efficiency, which is expected to reduce production costs [10] - Battery energy storage project in the UK: Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland, with the approved total storage capacity exceeding 1.6 GW [10]

Report Information - Report Name: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The macro - warm atmosphere supports the nickel price to be strong, and the prices in the industrial chain have rebounded. However, the oversupply pressure remains, and the price will still be under pressure after the macro - sentiment fades. It may continue to test the cost support [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 5th, Shanghai nickel fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2509 closed up 0.83% at 120,910. The total open interest of the index decreased by 5,588 to 191,375 lots. The average premium of Jinchuan No.1 nickel decreased by 100 to 2,250 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The quoted range of spot premium and discount of domestic mainstream brands of electrowinning nickel was - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [7]. - The supply of nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia is expected to be loose in the future, and the price has further downward pressure, with the support from the ore end weakening. The price of NPI continued to rise, with an average of 916 yuan/nickel point on the 5th. But the nickel ore price is still high in the short - term, and most Indonesian iron plants are still in a state of cost inversion. Due to the low spot market of stainless steel despite the price recovery, the traditional off - season consumption and high inventory limit the acceptance of high raw material prices, so the upward trend of NPI may not last long [7]. - The price of nickel salt has recovered from the low level due to the rigid replenishment of precursors and the low inventory of nickel salt plants, but the recovery space may be limited. The macro - environment has not yet substantially boosted the demand. The nickel industry does not directly benefit from the anti - involution logic. Attention should be paid to whether there are production - cut policies in the stainless steel industry. The nickel market is difficult to have substantial improvement in the short term [7]. 2. Industry News - Indonesia's National Investment Management Agency Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the downstream nickel industry. It is considering acquiring the PT Gunbuster Nickel Industry (GNI) smelter in Central Sulawesi. The acquisition plan is still in the evaluation stage, and the state - owned mining holding company Mind ID is likely to be the main partner. Danantara expects to prepare an investment plan of over $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through a syndicated loan to help GNI relieve liquidity pressure [8][10]. - Bulgaria officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh. This is the first step towards the goal of deploying 10,000 MWh of battery energy storage capacity within a year [10]. - A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel (Ni) contact with almost no silver (Ag). It significantly reduces the silver usage from 13 - 20 mg/W to below 0.5 mg/W while maintaining almost the same efficiency, which is expected to reduce production costs and improve sustainability and scalability [10]. - Renewable energy storage company Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system (BESS) project in North Ayrshire, Scotland. This is the tenth approved project in the past 17 months, with the total approved storage capacity exceeding 1.6 GW [10].

Report Overview - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report - Date: August 5, 2025 - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team of CCB Futures 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The nickel market remains in an oversupply situation. After the cooling of macro sentiment, nickel prices will return to the oversupply trading logic and continue to test cost support. Although nickel prices may have a phased rebound under emotional support, the upside is still under pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 4th, Shanghai nickel fluctuated strongly. The main contract opened lower and then continued to rise, closing at 120,630, up 0.54%. The total open interest of the index increased by 2,996 to 196,963 lots [7]. - The supply of nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia is expected to be loose, and the price has further downward pressure, weakening the support at the ore end. In the NPI sector, the short - term price of nickel ore is still high, and most Indonesian iron plants are still in a state of cost inversion. Although the nickel - iron price has recovered recently, the sustainability is not strong. The stainless - steel market is still sluggish, and the acceptance of high - priced raw materials is limited. It is expected that the NPI price will mainly operate at the bottom [7]. - The nickel - salt price has recovered due to the rigid replenishment of precursors and the low inventory of nickel - salt plants, but the recovery space may be limited. The macro has not yet substantially boosted demand, and the nickel industry does not directly benefit from the anti - involution logic. It is necessary to pay attention to whether there are production - cut policies in the stainless - steel industry. The nickel market is difficult to have substantial improvement in the short term [7]. 3.2 Industry News - Indonesia's national investment management agency Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry. It is considering acquiring the PT Gunbuster Nickel Industry (GNI) smelter in Central Sulawesi. The acquisition plan is still in the evaluation stage, and the state - owned mining holding company Mind ID is likely to be the main partner. Danantara expects to prepare an investment plan of more than $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through a syndicated loan [8][10]. - Bulgaria has officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh [10]. - A research team in Turkey has developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact with almost no silver, which can significantly reduce production costs and improve sustainability and scalability [10]. - Renewable energy storage company Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland, which will help Scotland achieve its net - zero emissions and renewable - energy consumption goals [10].

镍&不锈钢：产业链整体较为疲软 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 沪镍管理策略 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | | 套保比例 策略等级（满 分5） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存 管理 | 产品销售价格下跌，库存有减 值风险 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利 润，对冲现货下跌风险 | 沪镍主力合约 | 卖出 | 60% | 2 | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | 场外/场内期权 | 卖出 | 50% | 2 | | 采购 | 公司未来有生产采购需求，担 | 根据生产计划买入沪镍远期合约，盘面 提前采购锁定生产成本 卖出看跌期权 | 远月沪镍合约 场内/场外期权 | 买入 卖出 | 依据采购 计划 依据采购 | 3 1 | | 管理 | 心原料价格上涨 | | | | 计划 | | | | | 买入虚值看涨期权 | 场内/场外期权 | 买入 | 依据采购 计划 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Nickel and stainless steel may continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. The audit event of Indonesia's Tsingshan Industrial Park may affect the production of nickel intermediates and stainless steel. The support of ore prices still exists, but there is a certain deviation between the short - term nickel ore and the market trend. The nickel - iron price is still falling, and the demand in the stainless steel market is weak during the off - season. The demand for nickel salts in the new energy chain recovers slowly. Attention should be paid to spot transactions and macro news [1][4][5] Summary by Relevant Contents 1. Price and Management Strategy - **Price Forecast**: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 115,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3] - **Inventory Management Strategy**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has depreciation risks, short Shanghai nickel futures (60% ratio) and sell call options (50% ratio) to lock in profits and hedge against spot price drops [3] - **Procurement Management Strategy**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy long - term Shanghai nickel contracts and sell put options according to the production plan, and also buy out - of - the - money call options [3] 2. Market Situation - **Nickel Market**: Intraday, Shanghai nickel continued to fluctuate. The follow - up of the Indonesia audit event may affect production. The support of ore prices still exists, but there is a deviation between short - term nickel ore and the market trend. Nickel - iron prices are falling, with large profit pressure and weak procurement [4] - **Stainless Steel Market**: In the off - season, demand is weak. Spot sales are mainly through price concessions, and overall transactions are average [4] - **New Energy Chain**: The demand for nickel salts recovers slowly, maintaining a production - to - order situation [4] 3. Market Data - **Nickel Disk Data**: The latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 118,890 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The LME nickel 3M price is 15,095 US dollars/ton, up 0.39%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.69% [6] - **Stainless Steel Disk Data**: The latest price of the stainless steel main contract is 12,575 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.80% [7] - **Inventory Data**: Domestic social nickel inventory is 39,383 tons (up 8 tons), LME nickel inventory is 203,598 tons (down 522 tons), stainless steel social inventory is 1,000.6 tons (up 1.8 tons), and nickel pig iron inventory is 34,610 tons (up 3,148 tons) [8] 4. Market Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Some stainless steel mills announced production cuts, the cost of nickel ore prices is supported, and the government's review of some enterprises in Indonesia's Morowali Park may affect production [5] - **Negative Factors**: Stainless steel enters the traditional off - season, inventory clearance is slow, the contradiction in the nickel - iron industry chain deepens, and the demand for precursors in the new energy chain is weak [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The intraday Shanghai nickel continues to oscillate at the bottom, and the rumor of a mining ban in the Philippines has been disproven. Currently, high - priced ore and weak demand are continuously squeezing the profits of the intermediate links, making it difficult to directly boost the nickel price. The price of ferronickel is still falling, and there is no obvious trend of production reduction even though the economic efficiency of high - grade nickel matte is lower than that of ferronickel. The profit pressure is high, and the purchasing power of upstream and downstream is weak, so short - term contradictions still exist. In the stainless steel sector, the demand is sluggish during the off - season, and the stainless steel price continues to show a narrow - range oscillation trend. The demand for nickel salts in the new energy chain recovers slowly, and the production is still based on sales. Future attention should be paid to spot trading and macro - news [3] - There are some positive factors such as some stainless steel plants announcing production cuts and the support of nickel ore prices at the cost end. Negative factors include stainless steel entering the traditional off - season with slow inventory reduction, deepening contradictions in the ferronickel industry chain with an oversupply situation remaining unchanged, weak demand for precursors in the new energy chain, and the disproven rumor of a mining ban in the Philippines [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Forecast and Management Strategies - The price range forecast for Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - For inventory management, when the product sales price drops and there is a risk of inventory value reduction, it is recommended to short Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline, with a selling ratio of 60% for the Shanghai nickel main contract and 50% for selling call options. When worried about the rise in raw material prices, buy far - month Shanghai nickel contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs [2] - For procurement management, when the company has future production procurement needs, it can sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options according to the procurement plan [2] 2. Nickel and Stainless Steel Disk Data - **Nickel Disk Data**: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 119,920 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of the Shanghai nickel continuous - one contract is 119,920 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day; the price of the Shanghai nickel continuous - two contract is 120,120 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day; the price of the Shanghai nickel continuous - three contract is 120,260 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day; the price of LME nickel 3M is 15,105 US dollars/ton, down 40 US dollars or 0.05% from the previous day. The trading volume is 86,947 lots, unchanged; the open interest is 82,485 lots, unchanged; the warehouse receipt volume is 21,765 tons, up 724 tons or 3.44%; the basis of the main contract is - 1,010 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan or 24.7% [5] - **Stainless Steel Disk Data**: The latest price of the stainless steel main contract is 12,550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of the stainless steel continuous - one contract is 12,525 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 0.20% from the previous day; the price of the stainless steel continuous - two contract is 12,550 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 0.28% from the previous day; the price of the stainless steel continuous - three contract is 12,535 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 0.28% from the previous day. The trading volume is 130,382 lots, unchanged; the open interest is 180,346 lots, unchanged; the warehouse receipt volume is 118,383 tons, down 602 tons or 0.51%; the basis of the main contract is 585 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 2.63% [6] 3. Nickel Industry Inventory - The domestic social inventory of nickel is 39,383 tons, an increase of 8 tons compared to the previous period; the LME nickel inventory is 197,538 tons, a decrease of 96 tons; the stainless steel social inventory is 998.8 tons, an increase of 15.5 tons; the nickel pig iron inventory is 31,462 tons, an increase of 1,907.5 tons [7]