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电解铝下游加工及终端消费旺季前瞻
2025-08-24 14:47
电解铝下游加工及终端消费旺季前瞻 20250822 摘要 铝棒加工费持续走低,7 月华东、华南地区环比下跌超 30%,产能利用 率降至 43.75%,但 8 月订单企稳,库存去化,业者对"金九银十"预 期乐观,预计 9 月产能利用率小幅提升。 铝型材企业建成产能超 1,000 万吨,运行率约 50%。建筑型材受房地 产市场低迷影响大,占比持续下降,从 2019 年的 70%以上降至 2024 年的 45.7%,工业型材需求相对稳定。 房地产市场持续下行,1-7 月房地产开发投资同比下降 12%,新开工面 积减少 19.4%,竣工面积减少 16.5%,导致前七个月房地产用铝量同 比减少 35.3 万吨。 为应对国内市场困境,部分铝型材企业积极拓展出口,出口货款回款周 期短且利润丰厚,沿海工厂出口比重已达 50%以上,但需警惕国际贸易 摩擦及绿色铝等政策带来的挑战。 新能源用铝需求增长显著,光伏和新能源汽车领域成为重要增长点。 2025 年上半年新增光伏装机容量同比增长超 99%,1-7 月新能源汽车 产销同比增长超 38%,但铝加工企业面临光伏补贴取消、产能扩张及车 企合作门槛等挑战。 Q&A 当前铝下游加工各 ...
有色分歧走势!氧化铝能否见底
2025-07-16 06:13
Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The macroeconomic environment in both China and the U.S. is showing signs of concern due to trade issues, with manufacturing PMI indicating a decline in economic activity [1] - Recent domestic meetings suggest strong policy support expectations, alongside a potential easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S. [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics Copper Market - Supply constraints in copper mining persist, with tight supply conditions expected to continue [2] - Despite production increases, there are pressures for supply contraction due to mining challenges [2] - Demand has improved post-Qingming Festival, but overall investment in power engineering is lagging compared to last year [2][3] - Domestic electrolytic copper inventories remain low, prompting strategies to capitalize on market conditions [3][12] Aluminum Market - Aluminum supply constraints are well-known, with no significant increases expected [5] - Downstream demand for aluminum is declining as the industry enters a seasonal downturn [6] - The production of aluminum is under pressure due to reduced demand, leading to profit compression [6] - The supply of bauxite remains ample, but the overall aluminum market is facing downward price pressure [7][8] - The aluminum market is expected to experience a seasonal decline in production, impacting profit margins [18] Strategic Insights - A strategy of "backwardation" in the aluminum market is suggested, as supply pressures and reduced demand are anticipated [18][19] - The copper market is experiencing a "month spread" strategy, indicating potential for short-term gains despite overall market concerns [4][22] - The overall sentiment in the aluminum market is bearish, with recommendations to adopt a cautious approach to trading strategies [24] Key Data Points - The copper price has reached levels where downstream orders are slowing, indicating a potential market correction [12] - The domestic copper mining output is constrained, with global production growth remaining limited [10][11] - The aluminum market is facing a significant decline in demand, particularly in sectors related to construction and new energy vehicles [13][17] Conclusion - The current market conditions for both copper and aluminum indicate a complex interplay of supply constraints and fluctuating demand, necessitating careful monitoring and strategic positioning by investors [24]
研判2025!中国铝挤压行业产量、产业链及未来趋势分析:新能源汽车、光伏、轨道交通等新兴领域已成为拉动行业发展的重要增长点[图]
Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang· 2025-07-05 23:44
Industry Overview - Aluminum extrusion is a significant processing method that applies strong pressure to aluminum billets, resulting in the desired cross-sectional shapes and mechanical properties [1][5] - The aluminum extrusion industry is crucial for various sectors, including automotive, photovoltaic, transportation, and construction, with increasing importance in the national economy [5][9] - China's aluminum extrusion output is expected to remain above 21 million tons from 2020 to 2024, with a projected output of 23.3 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 100,000 tons from 2023 due to reduced demand from the real estate market [5][9] Market Segmentation - In 2024, industrial aluminum profiles and building aluminum profiles will account for 54.3% and 45.7% of the market, respectively [9] - The construction sector remains the largest application area for aluminum profiles, with a projected output of 9.85 million tons in 2024, down 19.9% year-on-year [9][19] - Emerging sectors such as photovoltaics, rail transportation, and new energy vehicles are driving strong demand for aluminum profiles, with photovoltaic profiles accounting for 18.3% and new energy vehicle profiles for 6.5% of the total output [9][23] Industry Chain - The aluminum extrusion industry chain consists of upstream (bauxite - alumina - electrolytic aluminum), midstream (aluminum extrusion production), and downstream (application fields such as construction, automotive, photovoltaics, and electronics) [13] - China's bauxite production is projected to be around 64.2 million tons in 2024, a decline of 2% year-on-year, while imports are expected to reach 158.77 million tons, a historical high [15] Downstream Applications - The real estate sector is a major application area for aluminum profiles, but it is currently facing a downturn, with significant declines in investment and construction metrics [19] - The new energy vehicle sector has seen a substantial increase in aluminum usage, with the average aluminum content per vehicle rising to 200-300 kg, and some high-end models exceeding 500 kg [21] - In the photovoltaic sector, aluminum profiles are primarily used for solar module frames, with rapid growth in demand driven by the expansion of solar power installations [23] Industry Trends - The aluminum processing industry is expected to expand its product variety and application areas, with increasing demand for high-end aluminum materials and aluminum-based new materials in emerging fields [25] - Future developments will focus on high-performance, lightweight, and multifunctional aluminum extrusion materials, with a shift towards intelligent and automated production processes [25]
研判2025!中国工业铝型材行业政策汇总、产业链图谱、生产现状、竞争格局及发展趋势分析:光伏型材占工业铝型材总产量的33.7%[图]
Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang· 2025-07-01 01:16
Core Viewpoint - The industrial aluminum profile market in China is experiencing significant growth driven by the increasing demand for lightweight vehicles and the expansion of the new energy vehicle sector, alongside robust demand from the photovoltaic industry [1][9]. Market Overview - Industrial aluminum profiles are primarily alloy materials made from aluminum, produced through processes like melting and extrusion, resulting in various shapes for different applications [2]. - The market is witnessing a production capacity expansion among Chinese manufacturers to meet the rising demand, with a projected production volume of 11.705 million tons in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 23.21% [1][9]. Market Policies - A series of supportive policies have been introduced to encourage technological innovation and green manufacturing in the industrial aluminum profile sector, including guidelines for recycling and promoting green finance [4][6]. Industry Chain - The upstream of the industrial aluminum profile industry includes bauxite, recycled aluminum, and production equipment, while the downstream encompasses applications in photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, and construction [7]. Competitive Landscape - The industrial aluminum profile market is highly competitive, with numerous players entering the field. The top twenty companies include prominent names such as Conglin Aluminum Technology and Dingmei New Materials [11][13]. - Conglin Aluminum Technology specializes in high-end industrial aluminum profiles and lightweight equipment, serving major clients like China CRRC and Maersk [14]. - Dingmei New Materials focuses on high-performance aluminum and magnesium alloys, achieving a revenue of 1.491 billion yuan in 2024, with 44.01% from industrial aluminum materials [16]. Development Trends - The industry is expected to adopt smart production lines and technologies such as IoT and AI to enhance efficiency and reduce costs. The use of recycled aluminum is anticipated to increase, promoting resource circularity [18].