1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September 2025, the new bond custody scale was 1.1 trillion yuan, the lowest level of the year, with the year - on - year growth rate of bond custody balance at 14.2%, down 0.75 percentage points from August. Government bonds and credit bonds were the main supply forces, while inter - bank certificates of deposit were weak. Banks and insurance institutions increased their bond holdings, while non - legal person products decreased theirs. It is expected that from November to December, the net financing scale of national debt and special bonds will be 1.0 trillion yuan and 930 billion yuan respectively, with a relatively stable supply. Banks are expected to maintain a neutral to slightly strong bond - allocation level, insurance institutions are expected to maintain a strong bond - allocation level, and the buying power of asset management accounts is expected to increase [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Custody Scale in September 2025 - The year - on - year growth rate of bond custody balance was 14.2%, down 0.75 percentage points from August. The new custody scale in September was 1.1 trillion yuan, the lowest of the year, and about 0.9 trillion yuan less than the same period last year [3][4]. 3.2 Bond Supply by Type - Government bonds, credit bonds were the main supply forces, while inter - bank certificates of deposit were weak. National debt, local government bonds, and corporate credit bonds increased by 13.72 billion yuan, 3.08 billion yuan, and 30.23 billion yuan more than the seasonal level respectively. Policy - financial bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit had net financing significantly lower than the seasonal level. Policy - financial bonds increased 13.43 billion yuan less than the seasonal level, possibly due to the concentrated financing of 500 billion yuan in new policy - financial instruments in August. Inter - bank certificates of deposit increased 74.79 billion yuan less than the seasonal level, continuing the weak trend [3][7]. - The new supply of national debt in September was 761.2 billion yuan, and that of local bonds was 455.1 billion yuan, both decreasing month - on - month. The total of the two was 1.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 351.9 billion yuan [11]. - In September, the net supply of inter - bank certificates of deposit was - 40.75 billion yuan, and that of financial bonds was 1.71 billion yuan, both further declining from August. The net supply of corporate credit bonds was 26.93 billion yuan, an increase of 11.58 billion yuan month - on - month, mainly supported by central enterprise credit bonds [17]. 3.3 Bond - Buying Behavior by Institution - Banks and insurance institutions increased their bond holdings, while non - legal person products and foreign investors decreased theirs. In September, banks increased their bond holdings by 981.2 billion yuan (considering repurchase), and the proportion of the increase in bank bond - holding scale to the new government bond custody scale was 68%, at a historically low level. Insurance institutions increased their bond holdings by 252.8 billion yuan, 124.2 billion yuan more than the seasonal level, mainly increasing their holdings of local government bonds and credit bonds. Asset management accounts decreased their bond holdings by 236.6 billion yuan, 331.3 billion yuan less than the seasonal level, mainly reducing their holdings of credit bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and financial bonds. Foreign investors decreased their bond holdings by 44.9 billion yuan, 15.2 billion yuan less than the seasonal level, mainly reducing their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit. Securities firms increased their bond holdings by 22.7 billion yuan, 35.8 billion yuan less than the seasonal level, mainly increasing their holdings of local government bonds [3][20][34]. 3.4 Outlook for Bond Supply and Institutional Behavior - Bond supply: It is expected that from November to December, the net financing scale of national debt and special bonds will be 1.0 trillion yuan and 930 billion yuan, with a relatively stable supply [3][40]. - Banks: Considering the restart of the central bank's bond - buying and the still - low loan growth rate, it is expected that banks will maintain a neutral to slightly strong bond - allocation level [3][42]. - Insurance institutions: With sufficient premiums and the return of yields to an attractive level for allocation, it is expected that insurance institutions will maintain a strong bond - allocation level [3][44]. - Asset management accounts: With the return of the liability side and the warming of the bond market, the buying power is expected to increase. However, the liability side of funds may still be affected by the potential negative impact of the new public fund fee regulations, and the fund redemption situation needs to be observed [3][47].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the shift in China's urban development from rapid expansion to quality improvement, highlighting the importance of urban renewal as a key policy direction for future urban growth [2][3]. Urban Development Transition - Urbanization in China has transitioned from a rapid growth phase to a stable development phase, necessitating a focus on urban renewal rather than new real estate development [2][3]. - The recent central government meetings and documents have underscored urban renewal as a critical focus for future urban development [2][3]. Definition and Importance of Urban Renewal - Urban renewal is defined as the process of maintaining, renovating, demolishing, and expanding existing urban buildings to optimize land resource allocation and improve living conditions [5][6]. - The article notes that past approaches to urban renewal, primarily driven by real estate development, are no longer effective due to changing urbanization dynamics [6][7]. Systematic Reconstruction - Future urban renewal efforts must involve systematic reconstruction, integrating policy frameworks, financial tools, and innovative operational models to achieve sustainable outcomes [3][7]. - The focus should shift from large-scale demolition to targeted improvements, such as enhancing old neighborhoods and preserving historical buildings [7][8]. Policy Framework and Goals - The recently issued "Opinions" document outlines ten goals, six principles, eight tasks, and four support measures for urban renewal, marking a significant top-level design in this area [8][9]. - The document addresses the urgent needs of urban transformation, including the challenges posed by existing regulations and the necessity for innovative solutions [9][10]. Integration with Housing Standards - The integration of urban renewal with the "good housing" initiative is crucial, as both aim to enhance living conditions and address the current housing market challenges [11][12]. - Urban renewal can transform old buildings into "good housing" by improving quality, functionality, and services [12][13]. Land and Financial Policies - Land use and financial policies are identified as critical components for successful urban renewal, with the need for clear guidelines on mixed-use development and land rights [15][16]. - Financial strategies should leverage public funds, encourage private investment, and explore innovative financial products to support urban renewal projects [16][17].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is titled "2025 April Institutional Behavior Thinking: Improving Liquidity Environment, Slow Supply of New Special Bonds" and is written by the Fixed Income Team of Ping An Securities Research Institute [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - In April 2025, the bond custody balance increased at a year - on - year rate of 15.5%, 0.6 percentage points higher than in March. The monthly new custody scale was 1.7 trillion yuan, remaining at a high level in the same historical period [3][4] - It is expected that the bond supply in May will increase compared to April. The new special bond issuance is slower than in previous years, and there is still supply pressure [39][40] - Banks are expected to maintain their bond - increasing strength, but their ability to absorb supply depends on the central bank's liquidity injection. Insurance is expected to adjust its bond - allocation rhythm according to local government bond supply. The capital increment of asset management accounts is expected to recover [3][43][51] Group 4: Bond Custody Scale - In April 2025, the bond custody balance had a year - on - year growth rate of 15.5%, up 0.6 percentage points from March. The new custody scale was 1.7 trillion yuan, which, although showing a marginal decline month - on - month, was at a high level in the same historical period [3][4] Group 5: Bond Supply by Type - Government bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) increased more than the seasonal average, while treasury bonds increased less. In April, local government bonds and inter - bank CDs increased by 5218 billion yuan and 1668 billion yuan more than the seasonal average respectively, and treasury bonds increased by 825 billion yuan less [8] - The total supply of government bonds (treasury bonds + local bonds) in April was close to 1 trillion yuan, showing a seasonal decline compared to March. However, both treasury bonds and local bonds were higher than the previous year [11] - The net supply of inter - bank CDs in April was 377.9 billion yuan, a significant decline from March, indicating an improvement in banks' asset - liability situation. The supply of corporate credit bonds was 224.2 billion yuan, returning to a high level in previous years [14] Group 6: Bond Allocation by Institutions - Banks and asset management accounts were the main institutions increasing bond holdings. Commercial banks increased their holdings by 797.5 billion yuan. After adjusting for the central bank's reverse repurchase scale in April, the actual purchase amount was in line with the seasonal pattern. Insurance increased holdings by 167.3 billion yuan, 70.9 billion yuan more than the seasonal average, mainly adding local government bonds. Asset management accounts increased holdings by 1.1 trillion yuan, 408.9 billion yuan more than the seasonal average, mainly increasing inter - bank CDs. Foreign investors increased holdings by 88.1 billion yuan, 120.8 billion yuan more than the seasonal average, mainly adding treasury bonds. Securities firms increased holdings by 183.5 billion yuan, 394.7 billion yuan more than the seasonal average, mainly adding treasury bonds [3][18] - Within asset management accounts, wealth management products concentrated on increasing inter - bank CDs from March to April, while funds showed a growing preference for credit bonds [29] Group 7: Outlook - It is expected that the bond supply in May will increase compared to April. The issuance of new special bonds is slower than in previous years, and there is still supply pressure [39][40] - Banks are expected to maintain their bond - increasing strength, but their ability to absorb supply depends on the central bank's liquidity injection. Insurance is expected to adjust its bond - allocation rhythm according to local government bond supply. The capital increment of asset management accounts is expected to recover. If the liquidity injection remains loose, the scale of wealth management products is expected to continue to grow steadily, and funds may still have room to increase bond holdings through leverage [3][43][51]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In March 2025, the bond market maintained rapid growth, with the bond custodial balance reaching 180.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.81%. Fiscal and monetary policies are expected to support a strong supply - demand situation in the bond market [3]. - The supply of bonds is expected to continue increasing, and different institutional investors have different trends in bond allocation [3]. Summary by Directory Bond Supply by Type - In March 2025, the new bond custodial volume increased by nearly 1.8 trillion yuan year - on - year. The government bonds and NCDs each increased by about 1 trillion yuan year - on - year, while corporate credit bonds decreased by about 430 billion yuan [5][9]. - The significant increase in government bonds was due to the front - loaded fiscal policy. The NCD increase was because of bond and credit expansion and insufficient bank liabilities. The decrease in corporate credit bonds might be affected by stricter regulations and high base numbers [12][17]. Bond Allocation by Institution - In March 2025, asset management accounts increased their bond allocation, while banks significantly reduced their bond addition. Asset management accounts, securities firms, and insurance companies increased their bond holdings by 1.7204 trillion, 22.07 billion, and 10.42 billion yuan respectively year - on - year, while commercial banks decreased their holdings by 42.93 billion yuan [19]. - Banks had weak bond - allocation due to liability pressure. After adjustment, they increased their government bond holdings by 28.28 billion yuan and reduced their NCD holdings by 47.32 billion yuan [26]. - Insurance companies increased their bond holdings year - on - year but with a weaker intensity than the historical average. They mainly increased their local government bond holdings because of valuation advantages [27]. - Asset management accounts reduced duration and increased NCD allocation, showing a conservative management approach. Securities firms increased their bond holdings by 22.07 billion yuan, mainly following the supply of government bonds, local government bonds, and NCDs. Foreign investors increased their bond holdings by 9.74 billion yuan, mainly in government bonds [31][35]. Outlook - From April 1 - 28, the net bond financing was 1.663 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 693.9 billion yuan, with government bonds increasing by 894.6 billion yuan. The net financing of corporate credit bonds increased, possibly due to falling interest rates or regulatory policies [37]. - Banks are expected to increase their bond allocation, especially government bonds, as their liability pressure eases. Insurance companies are expected to continue increasing their government bond allocation, with a preference for local government bonds. The capital increment of asset management accounts may continue to be lower than in previous years [41][44][47].