Q&A 如何看待近期债市的波动及其背后的逻辑？ 近期债市的波动主要围绕政治局会议和中央经济工作会议后的市场再定价展开。 经济工作会议公布后，市场交易情绪明显积极，但随后出现部分回吐。这反映 出当前市场对财政货币政策预期差及其传导路径已发生显著变化。传统上，财 政发力与否直接影响实物工作量预期，从而影响经济增长速度，并最终决定货 币政策状态。然而，目前财政动作更多是为了化解债务，而非增加政府支出或 基础建设投资。因此，债券供给直接决定收益率定价，而不是通过复杂的传导 链条。 12 月份最后两周是财政集中支出期，但资金最紧张时点通常在 12 月中 旬。本周税期窗口期资金面偏紧，年末财政支出增加或缓解压力。中小 机构年末有兑现服务需求，但指引行为可能提前结束。 当前十年和 30 年国债利差为 40BP，短期内大幅偏离概率较低。若十年 国债波动区间为 1.8%-1.85%，则 30 年国债对应区间为 2.18%- 2.27%。30 年国债在 2.50%附近是较好的入场点，可能吸引外围资金。 央行近期投放边际超额幅度不大，6 个月边际利率可能维持当前水平， 存单收益率预计维持在 1.65%左右。交易逻辑应从供给和市场预 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fiscal policy in 2026 is expected to maintain an active tone to support stable growth, with a projected fiscal policy combination of a 4% deficit - rate (5.88 trillion yuan deficit), 2 trillion yuan in special treasury bonds, 4.7 trillion yuan in special local bonds, and 2 trillion yuan in replacement bonds, corresponding to 14.6 trillion yuan in net government bond financing [1][11][13]. - The government - sector leverage ratio is expected to rise to 74.6% in 2026, with a slightly slower upward slope compared to 2025 [1][15]. - The net financing of interest - rate bonds in 2026 is expected to be 17.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.8 trillion yuan compared to 2025, and the supply rhythm is in line with the front - loaded fiscal policy [2][16]. - After the "last dip" in the bond market, it is advisable to layout for the year - end pre - emptive market. The bond market strategy should flexibly switch between α and β strategies [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2026 Bond Supply Outlook - Fiscal Policy: The fiscal policy in 2026 is expected to remain active, but with limited room for further increasing the deficit rate. "Quasi - fiscal" tools may still have room for action [1][11]. - Government Bond Net Financing: The net government bond financing in 2026 is expected to be 14.6 trillion yuan, including 7.1 trillion yuan in treasury bonds, 7.5 trillion yuan in local bonds. The government - sector leverage ratio is expected to rise to 74.6%, with a slower growth rate, and the central and local government leverage ratios are expected to rise to 32.1% and 42.5% respectively [1][15][16]. - Interest - Rate Bond Net Financing: The net financing of interest - rate bonds in 2026 is expected to be 17.1 trillion yuan, including 7.1 trillion yuan in treasury bonds, 7.5 trillion yuan in local bonds, and 2.5 trillion yuan in policy - bank bonds. The supply rhythm is front - loaded, and the supply in the fourth quarter may be relatively small [2][16][19]. - Impact of Unused Quotas: If unused quotas are considered, there is still room for an increase in government bond supply in 2026, which may be decided based on economic conditions [3][20]. 3.2 Bond Market Strategy: Layout for the Year - End Pre - emptive Market after the "Last Dip" - Current Situation of 10 - year Treasury Bonds: The 10 - year treasury bonds are currently fluctuating narrowly around 1.8%, which is in the middle of the central bank's attention range. Due to limited expectations of interest - rate cuts this year and the unimplemented fund fee - rate regulations, the bond market lacks a trading theme, and 1.8% has become a short - term neutral psychological point formed by institutional games [4][28]. - Seasonal Pattern: Historically, there has often been a "last dip" in mid - to late November. After the negative factors are exhausted, the bond's allocation value becomes prominent, and institutions such as rural commercial banks usually start building positions, driving down yields [4]. - Strategy Switch: The α - mining strategy for medium - term bonds is nearing its end, and it is advisable to gradually switch back to the β strategy. There may be opportunities for both α and β in ultra - long - term bonds in December [34]. - Interest - Rate Bond Selection: Currently, bonds with α - space can be selected from multiple dimensions such as riding, variety spreads, and term spreads. A dumbbell strategy can be adopted to participate in short - term and ultra - long - term bonds [5][35]. 3.3 Interest - Rate Bond Market Review: The Bond Market Lacks a Trading Theme, and Yields Remain Narrowly Fluctuating - Overall Market: In the third week of November, the 10 - year treasury bond yields fluctuated weakly around 1.8%. The 1 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.5BP to 1.4%, the 10 - year treasury bond yield increased by 0.75BP to 1.8125%, and the 30 - year treasury bond yield increased by 1.05BP to 2.1585% [9]. - (1) Funding Situation: The central bank made large - scale net injections through open - market operations (OMO), and the funding situation was balanced but tight [10][52]. - (2) Primary Issuance: The net financing of policy - bank bonds increased, while the net financing of treasury bonds, local bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased [52]. - (3) Benchmark Changes: The term spread of treasury bonds widened, while the term spread of China Development Bank bonds narrowed. The short - term treasury bonds performed better than the long - term ones, and the long - term China Development Bank bonds performed better than the short - term ones [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September 2025, the new bond custody scale was 1.1 trillion yuan, the lowest level of the year, with the year - on - year growth rate of bond custody balance at 14.2%, down 0.75 percentage points from August. Government bonds and credit bonds were the main supply forces, while inter - bank certificates of deposit were weak. Banks and insurance institutions increased their bond holdings, while non - legal person products decreased theirs. It is expected that from November to December, the net financing scale of national debt and special bonds will be 1.0 trillion yuan and 930 billion yuan respectively, with a relatively stable supply. Banks are expected to maintain a neutral to slightly strong bond - allocation level, insurance institutions are expected to maintain a strong bond - allocation level, and the buying power of asset management accounts is expected to increase [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Custody Scale in September 2025 - The year - on - year growth rate of bond custody balance was 14.2%, down 0.75 percentage points from August. The new custody scale in September was 1.1 trillion yuan, the lowest of the year, and about 0.9 trillion yuan less than the same period last year [3][4]. 3.2 Bond Supply by Type - Government bonds, credit bonds were the main supply forces, while inter - bank certificates of deposit were weak. National debt, local government bonds, and corporate credit bonds increased by 13.72 billion yuan, 3.08 billion yuan, and 30.23 billion yuan more than the seasonal level respectively. Policy - financial bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit had net financing significantly lower than the seasonal level. Policy - financial bonds increased 13.43 billion yuan less than the seasonal level, possibly due to the concentrated financing of 500 billion yuan in new policy - financial instruments in August. Inter - bank certificates of deposit increased 74.79 billion yuan less than the seasonal level, continuing the weak trend [3][7]. - The new supply of national debt in September was 761.2 billion yuan, and that of local bonds was 455.1 billion yuan, both decreasing month - on - month. The total of the two was 1.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 351.9 billion yuan [11]. - In September, the net supply of inter - bank certificates of deposit was - 40.75 billion yuan, and that of financial bonds was 1.71 billion yuan, both further declining from August. The net supply of corporate credit bonds was 26.93 billion yuan, an increase of 11.58 billion yuan month - on - month, mainly supported by central enterprise credit bonds [17]. 3.3 Bond - Buying Behavior by Institution - Banks and insurance institutions increased their bond holdings, while non - legal person products and foreign investors decreased theirs. In September, banks increased their bond holdings by 981.2 billion yuan (considering repurchase), and the proportion of the increase in bank bond - holding scale to the new government bond custody scale was 68%, at a historically low level. Insurance institutions increased their bond holdings by 252.8 billion yuan, 124.2 billion yuan more than the seasonal level, mainly increasing their holdings of local government bonds and credit bonds. Asset management accounts decreased their bond holdings by 236.6 billion yuan, 331.3 billion yuan less than the seasonal level, mainly reducing their holdings of credit bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and financial bonds. Foreign investors decreased their bond holdings by 44.9 billion yuan, 15.2 billion yuan less than the seasonal level, mainly reducing their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit. Securities firms increased their bond holdings by 22.7 billion yuan, 35.8 billion yuan less than the seasonal level, mainly increasing their holdings of local government bonds [3][20][34]. 3.4 Outlook for Bond Supply and Institutional Behavior - Bond supply: It is expected that from November to December, the net financing scale of national debt and special bonds will be 1.0 trillion yuan and 930 billion yuan, with a relatively stable supply [3][40]. - Banks: Considering the restart of the central bank's bond - buying and the still - low loan growth rate, it is expected that banks will maintain a neutral to slightly strong bond - allocation level [3][42]. - Insurance institutions: With sufficient premiums and the return of yields to an attractive level for allocation, it is expected that insurance institutions will maintain a strong bond - allocation level [3][44]. - Asset management accounts: With the return of the liability side and the warming of the bond market, the buying power is expected to increase. However, the liability side of funds may still be affected by the potential negative impact of the new public fund fee regulations, and the fund redemption situation needs to be observed [3][47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current bond market is in a headwind period, with the "slow bull in stocks and non - continuous sharp decline in bonds" state likely to continue due to liquidity and capital factors. The 10 - year Treasury yield may face two - stage pressure levels: 1.80% and 1.90%. However, the resistance at 1.80% and the difficulty of breaking through 1.90% are relatively high [2][22]. - If three out of four conditions are met in the second half of this year, the probability of the domestic central bank's comprehensive interest rate cut is very high. Currently, three conditions are gradually being met, and if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in September, the probability of the People's Bank of China synchronously lowering the OMO rate in the fourth quarter may increase. Then, the bond market will shift from a headwind period to a tailwind period [3][23][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest - rate Bond Data Review for Last Week - **Funds Rate**: In the week of August 18th, the funds rate first rose and then fell. DR001, R001, DR007, and FR007 all showed fluctuations in the same period [8]. - **Open - market Operations**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase volume reached 2.08 trillion yuan, with a total maturity of 711.8 billion yuan, resulting in a net capital injection of 1.37 trillion yuan, which is a relatively large net injection this month [8]. - **Sino - US Market Interest Rate Comparison**: The inversion range of the Sino - US bond yield spread has shown differentiation. The inversion range of the 6 - month interest rate spread has slightly increased, while the inversion range of the 2 - year and 10 - year bond yield spreads has slightly decreased [13]. - **Term Spread**: The term spread of Chinese bonds remained unchanged, while that of US bonds slightly widened. The 10 - 2 - year term spread of Chinese bonds was 35BP, and that of US bonds was 58BP [15]. - **Interest - rate Term Structure**: The yield curve of Chinese bonds changed little, while that of US bonds shifted downward. The yield of Chinese bonds from 3 - month to 1 - year decreased by 2BP, and that from 5 - to 10 - year decreased by 1BP; the overall yield of US bonds decreased by more than 5BP [16]. 3.2 High - frequency Real - estate Data Tracking - **First - tier Cities**: In the week of August 22nd, the commercial housing transactions in first - tier cities were in a low - level oscillation state. The daily average transaction area was 57,500 square meters, and the daily average transaction volume was 532 units. The market fluctuated significantly, with the highest point on August 20th and the lowest on August 24th [25]. - **Ten Major Cities**: The commercial housing transaction data of ten major cities rebounded compared with last week, with an average daily transaction area of about 103,700 square meters, an increase of about 20,000 square meters per day compared with last week [25]. - **30 Large and Medium - sized Cities**: The commercial housing transactions in 30 large and medium - sized cities remained at a historical low. The daily average transaction area was about 220,000 square meters, and the daily average transaction volume was about 2,566 units. The transaction area and volume reached the weekly peak on August 22nd [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From July 28 to August 1, treasury bond yields first rose and then fell due to multiple factors, with the yield curve showing a flattening trend. The resumption of VAT on bonds has a limited negative impact on the bond market, and credit bonds may see value re - evaluation opportunities. The tax advantage of public funds over bank self - operations is further enhanced, which may drive the outsourcing demand of bank self - operations. Next week, fund rates are expected to remain stable, while the supply pressure of treasury bonds will increase. The current bond market strategy suggests maintaining a defensive stance and seizing structural opportunities [2][3][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Bond Market Weekly Review - From July 28 to August 1, treasury bond yields first rose and then fell. The fund - side was first loose and then tight, remaining generally loose. Important policy events were successively implemented, and the manufacturing PMI in July fell below the boom - bust line. Overall, yields of treasury bonds across various maturities generally declined. For example, the yields of 1 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds decreased by 1.01BP, 2.65BP, and 2.35BP respectively, and the yield curve showed a flattening trend [2][12]. 3.2 Bond Market Data Tracking 3.2.1 Fund - side - From July 28 to August 1, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 69.00 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 16,632.00 billion yuan of open - market reverse repurchases, with 16,563.00 billion yuan maturing. The fund - side was stable across the month, and the fund rate center declined. The differences in fund costs between non - bank institutions and banks increased, and the term spread of FR007S5Y - FR007S1Y converged [23][24]. 3.2.2 Supply - side - From July 28 to August 1, the total issuance of interest - rate bonds decreased, while the net financing increased. The issuance of government bonds decreased, and the issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit also decreased. The net financing of treasury bonds increased, while that of local government bonds decreased [41][44]. 3.3 Next Week's Outlook and Strategy 3.3.1 Impact of Resuming VAT on the Bond Market - Starting from August 8, 2025, VAT will be resumed on the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds. This has a limited negative impact on the bond market, and credit bonds may see value re - evaluation opportunities. The tax advantage of public funds over bank self - operations is further enhanced. The market impact after the implementation of the new policy needs to closely track the primary - market issuance [3][52]. 3.3.2 Next Week's Outlook - After crossing the month, fund rates are expected to remain stable. Next week, the planned issuance of treasury bonds is 4130.00 billion yuan, significantly higher than this week, and the supply pressure will increase [59][60]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Strategy - For interest - rate bonds, 10 - year treasury bonds above 1.70% have allocation value, with 1.80% regarded as the upper - limit pressure. For credit bonds, seize the value re - evaluation opportunities brought by the resumption of VAT on interest - rate bonds. In the convertible bond market, focus on equity - balanced varieties. This week, pay attention to the primary - market issuance results of local government bonds on August 8, the central bank's liquidity injection through various tools in July, and inflation data [7][61]. 3.4 Global Major Assets - As of August 1, 2025, yields of US treasury bonds generally declined, and the term spread widened. The US dollar index rose, and the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB increased slightly. Gold and crude oil prices rose, while silver prices fell [63][68].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is titled "2025 April Institutional Behavior Thinking: Improving Liquidity Environment, Slow Supply of New Special Bonds" and is written by the Fixed Income Team of Ping An Securities Research Institute [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - In April 2025, the bond custody balance increased at a year - on - year rate of 15.5%, 0.6 percentage points higher than in March. The monthly new custody scale was 1.7 trillion yuan, remaining at a high level in the same historical period [3][4] - It is expected that the bond supply in May will increase compared to April. The new special bond issuance is slower than in previous years, and there is still supply pressure [39][40] - Banks are expected to maintain their bond - increasing strength, but their ability to absorb supply depends on the central bank's liquidity injection. Insurance is expected to adjust its bond - allocation rhythm according to local government bond supply. The capital increment of asset management accounts is expected to recover [3][43][51] Group 4: Bond Custody Scale - In April 2025, the bond custody balance had a year - on - year growth rate of 15.5%, up 0.6 percentage points from March. The new custody scale was 1.7 trillion yuan, which, although showing a marginal decline month - on - month, was at a high level in the same historical period [3][4] Group 5: Bond Supply by Type - Government bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) increased more than the seasonal average, while treasury bonds increased less. In April, local government bonds and inter - bank CDs increased by 5218 billion yuan and 1668 billion yuan more than the seasonal average respectively, and treasury bonds increased by 825 billion yuan less [8] - The total supply of government bonds (treasury bonds + local bonds) in April was close to 1 trillion yuan, showing a seasonal decline compared to March. However, both treasury bonds and local bonds were higher than the previous year [11] - The net supply of inter - bank CDs in April was 377.9 billion yuan, a significant decline from March, indicating an improvement in banks' asset - liability situation. The supply of corporate credit bonds was 224.2 billion yuan, returning to a high level in previous years [14] Group 6: Bond Allocation by Institutions - Banks and asset management accounts were the main institutions increasing bond holdings. Commercial banks increased their holdings by 797.5 billion yuan. After adjusting for the central bank's reverse repurchase scale in April, the actual purchase amount was in line with the seasonal pattern. Insurance increased holdings by 167.3 billion yuan, 70.9 billion yuan more than the seasonal average, mainly adding local government bonds. Asset management accounts increased holdings by 1.1 trillion yuan, 408.9 billion yuan more than the seasonal average, mainly increasing inter - bank CDs. Foreign investors increased holdings by 88.1 billion yuan, 120.8 billion yuan more than the seasonal average, mainly adding treasury bonds. Securities firms increased holdings by 183.5 billion yuan, 394.7 billion yuan more than the seasonal average, mainly adding treasury bonds [3][18] - Within asset management accounts, wealth management products concentrated on increasing inter - bank CDs from March to April, while funds showed a growing preference for credit bonds [29] Group 7: Outlook - It is expected that the bond supply in May will increase compared to April. The issuance of new special bonds is slower than in previous years, and there is still supply pressure [39][40] - Banks are expected to maintain their bond - increasing strength, but their ability to absorb supply depends on the central bank's liquidity injection. Insurance is expected to adjust its bond - allocation rhythm according to local government bond supply. The capital increment of asset management accounts is expected to recover. If the liquidity injection remains loose, the scale of wealth management products is expected to continue to grow steadily, and funds may still have room to increase bond holdings through leverage [3][43][51]