12月29日养殖板块温和上涨。生猪方面，随着"政策端强力去化"+"市场端亏损去化"的双重叠加， 生猪供应将出现实质性收缩，猪价有望开启震荡上行通道。黄鸡方面，随着消费季节性提升，价格或已 筑底完成，且行业亏损之下供给端可能进一步收缩。蛋鸡行业受海外引种受限（禽流感、航班等问题） 的滞后影响，2026年上游祖代种鸡的缺口将逐步传导至商品代，鸡苗和毛鸡价格中枢有望抬升，龙头企 业凭借高市占率有望释放业绩弹性。 成本端，全球粮食供应相对宽松，玉米、豆粕等饲料原料价格大概率维持低位震荡，对养殖业利润 形成支撑。总体而言，经历过2024、2025年的震荡磨底及产能去化后，2026年养殖业有望迎来利润与估 值的同时修复，感兴趣的投资者可以关注养殖ETF（159865）。 风险提示： 投资人应当充分了解基金定期定额投资和零存整取等储蓄方式的区别。定期定额投资是引导投资人 进行长期投资、平均投资成本的一种简单易行的投资方式。但是定期定额投资并不能规避基金投资所固 有的风险，不能保证投资人获得收益，也不是替代储蓄的等效理财方式。 无论是股票ETF/LOF基金，都是属于较高预期风险和预期收益的证券投资基金品种，其预期收益及 预期 ...

今日A股小幅震荡，上证指数微涨0.04%，收于3965.28点，截至今日已录得九连阳；深证成指下跌0.49%，收于 13537.10点。两市成交维持2.15万亿元的高位，整体上跌多涨少。临近年末市场热点趋于分散，石油、军工板 块表现相对较好。四季度以来市场经历短暂调整后恢复上行，长期来看推动本轮行情的积极因素尚未出现变 化，明年的慢牛行情依然可期。 养殖板块今日温和上涨。生猪方面，随着"政策端强力去化"+"市场端亏损去化"的双重叠加，生猪供应将出现 实质性收缩，猪价有望开启震荡上行通道。黄鸡方面，随着消费季节性提升，价格或已筑底完成，且行业亏损 之下供给端可能进一步收缩。蛋鸡行业受海外引种受限（禽流感、航班等问题）的滞后影响，2026年上游祖代 种鸡的缺口将逐步传导至商品代，鸡苗和毛鸡价格中枢有望抬升，龙头企业凭借高市占率有望释放业绩弹性。 成本端，全球粮食供应相对宽松，玉米、豆粕等饲料原料价格大概率维持低位震荡，对养殖业利润形成支撑。 总体而言，经历过2024、2025年的震荡磨底及产能去化后，2026年养殖业有望迎来利润与估值的同时修复，感 兴趣的投资者可以关注养殖ETF(159865)。 //// // ...

Group 1 - The A-share market showed weakness today, influenced by a drop of over 2% in the Nasdaq, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3990.49 points, down 0.97% [1] - The market experienced a mixed performance this week, with multiple attempts to break the 4000-point mark, reflecting underlying participant divergence despite initial optimism [1] - The trading volume in both Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was below 2 trillion, indicating a lack of active trading [1] Group 2 - The market has been searching for new leading narratives since the CPO sector, with sectors like new energy and battery showing temporary strength but lacking sustainability [2] - Economic indicators such as social financing are showing mediocre performance, indicating a lag in the recovery of confidence in the real economy [2] - The pressure from profit-taking in certain sectors, where some stocks have seen gains exceeding 50%, poses a risk to the continuation of the current market trend [2] Group 3 - Investors are advised to avoid unilateral bets and consider a strategy of high selling and low buying, focusing on a "core position + satellite rotation" approach [3] - Recommended core ETFs include the CSI A500 ETF and the CSI 300 Enhanced ETF, while satellite opportunities may arise in sectors that have underperformed during the recent adjustments [3] - The Hong Kong and US markets showed weaker performance compared to A-shares, with the Hang Seng and Hang Seng Tech indices closing below water, reflecting higher sensitivity to US dollar liquidity [3]

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment in the US stock market is expected to have a limited impact on the A-share market, which is likely to maintain a slow bull trend despite short-term fluctuations [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Historical experience shows that significant declines in the US market often lead to global market volatility, but A-shares have demonstrated relative resilience recently [1]. - The technology sector, particularly in artificial intelligence, is leading the current A-share rally, with both domestic and North American computing capabilities playing a role [1][2]. - A-share's fundamentals exhibit a degree of independence from US market movements, suggesting that local factors will also influence performance [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The current low-interest-rate environment is prompting capital to flow into the stock market in search of higher returns, resulting in relatively abundant liquidity [1]. - The recent market adjustment is viewed as a favorable opportunity for investors to accumulate shares, particularly for those optimistic about A-share's future [2][3]. - A recommended investment strategy involves a "core + satellite" approach, combining core holdings with satellite investments in technology and dividend stocks to enhance investment experience during market volatility [3]. Group 3: Sector Focus - The "anti-involution" theme is highlighted as a potential investment opportunity, encompassing sectors like steel, coal, photovoltaic, construction materials, aquaculture, and chemicals, which are supported by national policies [5]. - The aquaculture sector has shown resilience, with its performance remaining strong even during broader market declines, indicating its unique internal circulation logic [5]. - Other sectors currently in a downward cycle are not recommended, while the mining and non-ferrous metals sectors may present opportunities due to their independent performance linked to commodities like gold and copper [5].

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with mixed performance among the three major indices, where the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.39%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.26%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.75% [1] Sector Performance - The gaming, chemical fiber, and fertilizer sectors showed strong gains, while small metals, medical services, and bioproducts sectors faced declines [1] - Major capital inflows were observed in optical electronics, gaming, and power grid equipment sectors [1] ETF Performance - Agricultural, gaming, and chemical ETFs performed well, likely influenced by recent news [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is initiating central frozen pork reserves to stabilize the pig market, with the average pig-to-grain price dropping below 6:1, entering a warning zone [2] - China Galaxy Securities predicts a downward trend in pig prices year-on-year for 2025, with stable operations expected throughout the year, highlighting the importance of quality pig farming companies [2] Gaming Industry Insights - The gaming industry continues to show high prosperity, with 166 domestic games approved in August, indicating sustained growth [2][3] - AI technology is expected to enhance applications in the gaming sector, with multi-modal AI models and agent tools likely to drive further development [3] Chemical Industry Developments - Multiple titanium dioxide companies have announced price increases, with domestic prices rising by 500-800 yuan per ton, signaling a potential recovery in the chemical sector [4] - The "anti-involution" policy is seen as a significant guiding principle for the manufacturing sector, aiming to eliminate unfair competition and stabilize the chemical industry [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - The market experienced a volatile trading day with all three major indices closing lower: Shanghai Composite Index down 0.04%, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.05%, and ChiNext Index down 0.26% [1] - Sectors such as chemical fiber, electric machinery, and photovoltaic equipment saw significant gains, while shipbuilding, banking, and mining sectors faced declines [1] Group 2: Rare Earth Industry Insights - According to Zhongtai Securities, rare earth prices are at a cyclical bottom, with import mineral controls tightening, leading to a more concentrated supply structure and potential price increases [2] - The anticipated production of humanoid robots starting in 2025 could create a demand for 200,000 to 400,000 tons of rare earths, equivalent to recreating a rare earth permanent magnet market [2] - Guojin Securities suggests that the overall downward trend in rare earth prices for 2024 may limit quota growth in 2025, but new demand from humanoid robots and low-altitude economy could boost the sector [2] Group 3: Photovoltaic Industry Developments - Caixin Securities forecasts a price recovery in the photovoltaic industry chain driven by demand surges and low inventory replenishment in Q2 [3] - Guojin Securities highlights the upcoming installation rush in the photovoltaic sector, with significant price recovery expected in the mid and downstream segments [3] - The current photovoltaic sector is seen as having a triple bottom in terms of performance, sentiment, and attention, with key recommendations focusing on glass, battery cells, new technologies, and large storage [3] Group 4: Livestock Industry Trends - Guohai Securities notes that the pressure on pig supply is easing, with demand showing marginal improvement, leading to an expected gradual increase in pig prices [4] - The period of maximum downward pressure on pig prices has passed, and there is potential for a seasonal price increase in Q2-Q3 of 2025 due to a supply gap [4] - The overall increase in pig supply is expected to lead to a bottoming out of the industry, with opportunities for strategic positioning [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - The three major indices experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.00%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.43%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.33% [1] - Sectors such as chemical raw materials, coal, and fertilizers showed notable gains, while shipbuilding, communication services, and internet services faced significant declines [1] Group 2: Coal Sector Insights - The coal sector's valuation and dividend yield attractiveness are on the rise, supported by a policy initiative from the coal association to control output and improve quality [2] - High-frequency data indicates a decrease in coal sales and inventory, with power coal prices continuing to decline and coking coal prices also falling [2] - The coal industry is entering a maintenance period, and with demand bottoming out, non-electric coal demand is gradually recovering, suggesting potential price increases [2] Group 3: Electricity Sector Developments - Domestic grid investment is entering a high-growth phase, with a reported investment of 43.6 billion yuan in the first two months of the year, marking a 33.5% year-on-year increase [3] - The demand for wind power is increasing globally, with significant growth expected in both onshore and offshore wind installations in various regions [3] - The wind turbine sector is anticipated to undergo a value reassessment due to the unexpected demand surge [3] Group 4: Agriculture and Livestock Sector Trends - The average price of piglets has rebounded rapidly over two weeks, indicating a seasonal increase in stocking demand [4] - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase, leading to a potential alignment of market prices with production costs [4] - The average price of piglets reached 510.95 yuan per head, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.77% [4]