Core Viewpoint - Lichung Group is expected to report impressive financial results for 2025, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from 830 million to 870 million yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 17.38% to 23.04% [1][2] Financial Performance - The company's net profit and net profit excluding non-recurring items are both set to reach new highs for the fifth consecutive year, with net profit expected to be between 830 million and 870 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items projected between 750 million and 790 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 23.42% to 30.00% [2][3] - Historical net profit figures from 2021 to 2024 were 450 million, 492 million, 606 million, and 707 million yuan, with respective growth rates of 4.04%, 9.41%, 22.98%, and 16.77% [2][3] Business Operations - The growth in profit is attributed to several factors, including steady increases in production and sales across various business segments, with projected sales of 23.4 million aluminum alloy wheels, 1.26 million tons of recycled aluminum alloy, and 120,000 tons of functional intermediate alloys, leading to an expected total sales revenue of 32 billion yuan [3] - The overseas production capacity in the aluminum alloy wheel segment is being effectively utilized, with operations in Thailand and Mexico enhancing global supply capabilities [3] - The lithium hexafluorophosphate business has turned profitable due to market price recovery and increased capacity utilization, contributing positively to overall profitability [3] Research and Development - Lichung Group has maintained a research and development expense rate exceeding 3% over the past four years, with R&D expenses of 663 million, 745 million, 934 million, and 730 million yuan from 2022 to the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 20.17%, 12.32%, 25.41%, and 6.65% [4][5] Strategic Partnerships - The company has entered into a strategic cooperation agreement with Beijing Weijing Intelligent Technology Co., focusing on humanoid robots, which includes material supply, assembly, and testing for diverse applications [5] - A subsequent procurement agreement for humanoid robot components worth approximately 75 million yuan has been signed, marking a significant step in the company's expansion into the humanoid robotics sector [5] Acquisitions - Lichung Group plans to acquire an additional 20% stake in MQP International for approximately 2.11 million yuan, increasing its ownership from 70% to 90%, which will enhance control over the subsidiary and strengthen its position in the aluminum-based functional intermediate alloy market [6]

Core Viewpoint - Lichong Group (300428) anticipates a net profit of 830 million to 870 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.38% to 23.04% compared to 707 million yuan in the previous year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is expected to be between 750 million and 790 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23.42% to 30.00% [1] - If the impact of accounting estimate changes from the previous year is excluded, the net profit growth rate could reach 45.14% to 52.13% [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The growth in 2025 is attributed to the synergistic efforts across multiple business segments and the deepening of the globalization strategy [1] - The aluminum alloy wheel segment is projected to achieve sales of 23.4 million units, while the recycled aluminum alloy segment is expected to reach 1.26 million tons, and the functional intermediate alloy segment is anticipated to sell 120,000 tons [1] - Total sales revenue is expected to exceed 32 billion yuan, with all business segment figures reflecting external data after consolidation [1] Group 3: Strategic Developments - The globalization of the aluminum alloy wheel business has shown significant results, with production bases in Thailand and Mexico enhancing global supply chain resilience and increasing high-end customer orders [1] - The lithium hexafluorophosphate business has turned profitable since November 2025, benefiting from market price recovery and the introduction of strategic investors [2] - The three core business segments have formed a good synergy, with recycled aluminum providing stable raw material supply for aluminum alloy wheels, and functional intermediate alloys enhancing product performance [2] Group 4: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The growth in performance is supported by macro policies and market trends, with increasing demand for lightweight materials driven by the rising penetration of new energy vehicles [2] - The market for aluminum alloy wheels and recycled aluminum is expanding, supported by global carbon neutrality goals [2] - Emerging fields such as humanoid robots and semiconductors are driving demand for high-performance alloys, indicating a shift from traditional aluminum processing to high-tech material solutions [3] - The strategic layout in emerging fields is expected to capture market opportunities and enhance product premium through collaboration with high-end customers [3]

对于业绩增长的核心原因，公告从多业务板块发展、产能布局、业务改善及市场拓展等方面进行了说明： 其一，各业务板块产销量稳步提升，全年业绩支撑有力。2025年，公司铝合金车轮板块预计销量2,340万 只，再生铸造铝合金板块预计销量126万吨，功能中间合金板块预计销量12万吨，三大核心业务板块协同发 力，全年预计实现销售收入320亿元（数据为合并抵消后的对外数据）。 其二，海外产能布局持续释放，高端客户拓展成效显著。公司铝合金车轮板块泰国、墨西哥基地有序投产运 营，全球供应能力大幅增强，同时高端客户销量稳步增加，为业绩增长提供了重要支撑。 其三，六氟磷酸锂业务扭亏为盈，盈利能力持续向好。受益于市场价格复苏及战略投资者的引入，该业务产 能利用率与订单量稳步增长，自2025年11月份起实现扭亏为盈，成为公司新的利润增长点。 其四，产品结构与客户矩阵优化，新兴市场拓展奠定基础。公司积极推进新材料、新产品在新能源汽车、人 形机器人、航空航天、半导体等新兴领域的应用，为盈利能力持续提升注入新动能。 2026年1月5日，立中集团发布2025年年度业绩预告，公司预计全年净利润实现正向增长，盈利能力持续稳步 提升。 公告显示，业绩 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lichung Group expects a significant increase in net profit for the year 2025, driven by strong performance across its core business segments and successful expansion into emerging markets [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 830 million to 870 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.38% to 23.04% [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items is projected to be between 750 million and 790 million yuan, with a growth rate of 23.42% to 30.00% [1] - If accounting estimate changes are excluded, the net profit growth could reach 45.14% to 52.13% [1] Group 2: Business Segments and Sales - The company anticipates steady growth in sales volume across its business segments, with aluminum alloy wheel sales expected to reach 23.4 million units, recycled aluminum alloy sales at 1.26 million tons, and functional intermediate alloy sales at 120,000 tons [2] - Total sales revenue is projected to be around 32 billion yuan, reflecting the combined performance of all business segments [2] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Lichung Group is focusing on its core business and enhancing its global supply chain, particularly in new materials and products for emerging markets [2] - The company has successfully turned around its lithium hexafluorophosphate business, which is now a new profit growth point, benefiting from market price recovery and strategic investments [2] - The company is actively optimizing its product structure and customer matrix, expanding applications in new energy vehicles, humanoid robots, aerospace, and semiconductors [2][3] Group 4: Industry Context - The aluminum alloy industry in China is experiencing structural transformation and growth opportunities, particularly due to the lightweight demands of new energy vehicles and the accelerated import substitution of high-end aluminum materials in aerospace [3] - Lichung Group is well-positioned to benefit from industry upgrades, leveraging its full industry chain advantages and global capacity layout [3]

公司利润增长的主要原因：（1）公司各业务板块产销量稳步提升，其中铝合金车轮板块销量预计2,340 万只、再生铸造铝合金板块销量预计126万吨、功能中间合金板块销量预计12万吨，全年实现销售收入 预计320亿元（各业务板块销量、收入均为合并抵消后的对外数据）。（2）铝合金车轮板块海外产能布 局持续释放，泰国、墨西哥基地有序投产运营，显著增强了全球供应能力，同时高端客户销量稳步增 加，有效支撑了公司业绩的增长。（3）公司六氟磷酸锂业务受益于市场价格复苏，叠加战略投资者引 入，产能利用率与订单量稳步增长，自11月份开始已实现扭亏为盈，盈利能力持续向好。（4）公司持 续优化产品结构及客户矩阵，积极推进新材料、新产品在新能源汽车、人形机器人、航空航天、半导体 等新兴市场的应用拓展，为盈利能力的提升奠定了基础。 格隆汇1月5日丨立中集团(300428.SZ)公布2025年年度业绩预告，预计2025年1月1日至2025年12月31日 归属于上市公司股东的净利润8.3亿元-8.7亿元，同比增长17.38%-23.04%；归属于上市公司股东的扣除 非经常性损益的净利润75亿元-7.9亿元，同比增长23.42%-30.00%；本 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lichung Group (300428.SZ) forecasts a net profit of 830 million to 870 million yuan for the year 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.38% to 23.04% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is expected to be between 750 million and 790 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 23.42% to 30.00% [1] - The company anticipates total sales revenue of approximately 32 billion yuan for the year, driven by steady growth in production and sales across various business segments [2] Group 2: Business Growth Drivers - The aluminum alloy wheel segment is projected to sell 23.4 million units, while the recycled casting aluminum alloy segment is expected to reach 1.26 million tons, and the functional intermediate alloy segment is estimated at 120,000 tons [2] - The overseas production capacity in the aluminum alloy wheel segment is being effectively utilized, with operations in Thailand and Mexico enhancing global supply capabilities [2] - The lithium hexafluorophosphate business has turned profitable since November, benefiting from market price recovery and increased capacity utilization [2] Group 3: Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on its core business and enhancing its global industrial chain layout, particularly in new materials and products for emerging markets [1] - Continuous optimization of product structure and customer matrix is being pursued, with applications in new energy vehicles, humanoid robots, aerospace, and semiconductors [2]

证券日报网12月19日讯顺博合金（002996）在回答调研者提问时表示，未来，公司将以再生铝业务的稳 步发展为基础，坚持"再生铸造铝合金+再生变形铝合金"双轮驱动战略，协同推进铝灰危废处置。公司 将充分利用国内资本市场的平台和工具，抓住行业整合与发展的机遇，加快铸造铝合金和变形铝合金领 域的产能释放，提升产品知名度，扩大市场份额，创造更大的市场价值。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the pricing logic of aluminum metals with imagination since the fourth quarter of this year will continue. Although the year - on - year growth rate of apparent demand for aluminum metals is expected to decline further, the report remains optimistic about the unilateral direction of aluminum prices, smelting profits of aluminum plants, and price volatility due to the likely low - growth global supply [1][54][315]. - For alumina, the market is likely to see over - supply. It is recommended to sell on rebounds. The profit - grabbing ability of alumina in the industrial chain will remain weak in 2026 [196][319]. - For recycled cast aluminum alloys, prices will generally follow aluminum prices and have a certain upward elasticity. The price - to - electrolytic aluminum ratio of ADC12 is expected to rise, and its price may exceed the 2025 high [7][324]. - In 2026, key structural strategies include cross - border arbitrage, calendar spread arbitrage, cross - variety arbitrage, and over - the - counter options [8][327]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review of 2025 Market and Main Driving Logic of Three Aluminum Products 1.1 Electrolytic Aluminum (AL) - In 2025, the aluminum price showed a low - volatility and convergent pattern for most of the time, with the annual low higher than that in 2024 and the high failing to break through the 2024 high. By the end of 2025, the price increase was 11.0%, lower than that of copper and tin [11]. - The main reasons were the "double - weak" supply - demand pattern and the lack of a clear macro - trading theme. However, since October, with the positive impact of AI - driven power demand on the supply - demand pattern, combined with stock - futures linkage, the aluminum price broke through the convergent pattern [12][14]. 1.2 Alumina (AO) - In 2025, alumina prices fell by 41.1%. In the first half of the year, there was a unilateral decline, and in the second half, there were two "advance - to - retreat" style declines. The main reason was the over - supply and inventory accumulation [17]. 1.3 Recycled Cast Aluminum Alloy (AD) - In 2025, the price center of recycled cast aluminum alloy moved up, generally following the electrolytic aluminum price. The price was supported by the supply shortage of scrap aluminum, especially in the second half of the year after the futures listing [23][24]. 1.4 Strategy Review of Three Aluminum Products - Cross - border arbitrage: In 2025, the most profitable position was the long - LME aluminum and short - SHFE aluminum (positive arbitrage), with a maximum annualized return of over 20% [26][28]. - Cross - variety arbitrage: Copper - aluminum arbitrage, alumina - aluminum arbitrage, alumina - caustic soda arbitrage, and aluminum - aluminum alloy arbitrage provided many profitable strategies [31][34]. - Calendar spread arbitrage: The basis and calendar spread structure of aluminum were generally flat. The basis opportunities of alumina and aluminum alloy were stronger than the calendar spread opportunities [44][45]. 2. Electrolytic Aluminum: Can the "Gathering of Small Demands" and Supply Stories Boost Elasticity? 2.1 Resilience of Primary Aluminum Demand - AI - related industries such as computing centers, energy storage, the US power grid, and robots, as well as military applications and "aluminum replacing copper," are expected to contribute about 1.2 - 1.6 percentage points to China's primary aluminum demand growth rate in 2026 [56][156]. - "Light and vehicle" consumption growth contribution will decline to + 0.1 percentage points, mainly due to the decline in photovoltaic demand [107][114]. - Traditional "foundation, infrastructure, and electricity" and manufacturing industries are expected to contribute 0 - 1 percentage point to the demand growth rate [116][117]. - In 2026, China's exports of aluminum products and aluminum products are expected to increase slightly, contributing 0.5 - 1 percentage point to the demand growth rate [155][156]. 2.2 Key Risks for the Bullish View - China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity ceiling is approaching, and in 2026, the production growth rate is expected to be about + 1.7%. The main risk is the potential increase in production capacity if green - power smelting can break through the ceiling [157][158][163]. - Overseas supply, especially from Indonesia, is a major risk. Although the new production in 2026 is expected to be at a low - growth rate, the power supply conditions need to be closely monitored [165][173][179]. 2.3 Supply - Demand Balance of Primary Aluminum - In China, under the baseline and optimistic scenarios in 2026, the annual shortage is expected to be 12.4 - 25.8 tons, and the inventory accumulation pressure in the first quarter is controllable [2][316]. - Globally, the supply - demand balance is expected to be in a shortage range of 19 - 82 tons, with a median of about 50 tons. Considering the production cut of the Mozambique aluminum plant, the global shortage may exceed 50 tons [2][187][316]. 3. Alumina: Where is the Bottom in the Dilemma between Fundamental Drivers and Valuation? 3.1 Supply Rigidity Remains Unsolved, and the Over - Supply Pattern is Hard to Change - As of the end of 2025, the production of alumina remained rigid. Although high - cost producers have suffered losses for two months, the production has not decreased significantly. However, there may be large - scale production cuts or maintenance in January - February [197][198]. - In 2026, there is still a large - scale new investment in alumina production capacity. The annual average growth rate of alumina production is expected to be about 5.3%, and the production - demand gap will be large [204][205]. - Overseas alumina production capacity is also increasing. Although there is a risk of overseas supply impacting the Chinese market, the Chinese market's production increase is more certain, and exports may exceed 2025 [210][211]. - In 2026, the supply - demand balance of alumina in China and globally is expected to be in a serious over - supply situation, but there are uncertainties in the inventory accumulation in the second half of the year [228][229]. 3.2 Under the Over - Supply Pattern, the Cost - Based Pricing of AO Continues - In 2026, the supply of Guinea bauxite is expected to be abundant, with a potential increase of 3693 - 6300 tons. If the monthly arrival in China exceeds 1530 tons, the supply of bauxite in China will be stable [240][241]. - Alumina's profit - grabbing ability in the industrial chain is expected to remain weak in 2026, mainly due to the decline in bauxite prices and the optimization of production capacity structure [258]. 4. Recycled Cast Aluminum Alloy: The Contradiction at the Raw Material End is Prominent, and the Ratio Center Rises 4.1 The Ratio Center of Scrap Aluminum to Electrolytic Aluminum Tends to Rise - The actual shipment volume of scrap aluminum in 2025 was lower than expected. The increase in imports did not effectively alleviate the supply shortage. The main reason was the mismatch between the supply and demand growth rates of scrap aluminum [262][271]. - The cancellation of the tax rebate policy has increased the cost of recycled aluminum enterprises, and the EU's possible export tariff on scrap aluminum may exacerbate the global supply shortage [291][296]. 4.2 Assessment of Supply and Demand of Recycled Aluminum Alloys - In 2025, the expansion rate of recycled aluminum alloy production capacity slowed down, but the capacity utilization rate was still low. In 2026, the production capacity growth rate is expected to slow down, and some production capacity may exit [300][301]. - The demand for recycled aluminum alloys has certain resilience, but the industry is still in an over - capacity situation. ADC12 is a cost - based pricing product, and the cost - pricing logic will be more obvious [307]. 5. Trading Themes to Watch in 2026 5.1 Unilateral Judgment of Electrolytic Aluminum - In 2026, the pricing logic of aluminum with imagination will continue. Although the apparent demand growth rate is expected to decline, the report is optimistic about the price, smelting profit, and price volatility. The main risks are macro - economic recession and over - production in Indonesia [315][318]. 5.2 Unilateral Judgment of Alumina - It is recommended to sell on rebounds. The over - supply pattern is difficult to change in 2026. The profit - grabbing ability in the industrial chain will remain weak, and the main risks are the introduction of a "production capacity ceiling" policy and bauxite supply disruptions in Guinea [319][323]. 5.3 Unilateral Judgment of Recycled Cast Aluminum Alloy - The price will generally follow the electrolytic aluminum price and has a certain upward elasticity. The main risks are the continuous release of new production capacity and lower - than - expected automobile consumption growth [324][326]. 5.4 Structural Strategies - Cross - border arbitrage: Positive arbitrage in the first half of the year and possible reverse arbitrage in the second half [327]. - Calendar spread arbitrage: Selectively conduct positive arbitrage [327]. - Cross - variety arbitrage: Short caustic soda based on alumina production cuts; buy aluminum and short copper when the copper - aluminum ratio rises too fast; conduct spread arbitrage between electrolytic aluminum and recycled cast aluminum alloy [327]. - Over - the - counter options: Regularly implement the low - level buying strategy - enhanced accumulative purchase [327].

长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-11-24 【产业服务总部 | 有色金属团队】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 铝产业链周报 01 周度观点 ◆ 基本面分析 山西、河南铝土矿价格暂稳，几内亚散货矿主流成交价格周度环比下降1美元/干吨至70.5美元/干吨。12月开始进口矿现货供应预 期会增加，矿价预计将承压。氧化铝运行产能周度环比上升30万吨至9610万吨，全国氧化铝库存周度环比增加4.3万吨至434.4万 吨。大多数氧化铝企业依然维持高产满产运行，少部分氧化铝企业以检修、环保管控、技改设备并线、生产线工艺切换为主的压减 产仍在继续。电解铝运行产能周度环比持平于4442.4万吨。减复产能方面，为进一步降低电耗，山西朔州能源对部分电解槽进行 停槽技改升级，涉及产能4万吨左右；新疆个别铝厂因环保管控有所减产。新投产能方面，近期天山铝业将逐步投产，扎铝将于12 月建成投产。需求方面，国内铝下游加工龙头企业开工率周度环比持稳于至62%。中原地区环保影响消退及两大电网订单重新匹 配支撑开工，但整体 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic aluminum market is in a transition from peak season to off - season. The supply and demand situation is complex, with changes in production capacity, consumption, and inventory. The recent sharp rise in aluminum stocks and the influx of funds into the Shanghai Aluminum market are based on expectations of supply shortages in the US, but there are risks of over - trading. Short - term observation is recommended [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week View - **Fundamental Analysis**: Domestic bauxite supply in Shanxi and Henan is expected to improve, while the price of Guinea bauxite has declined. Alumina production capacity has increased slightly, and inventory has risen. Electrolytic aluminum production capacity has decreased slightly, with some reduction due to technical upgrades and environmental protection. Domestic downstream processing enterprise operating rates have declined, and aluminum ingot inventory has increased slightly. In the recycled casting aluminum alloy sector, the production of leading enterprises has not been affected for the time being [4]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: For alumina, it is recommended to take profit on long positions and sold out - of - the - money put options. For Shanghai Aluminum and casting aluminum alloy, it is recommended to strengthen observation [5]. 3.2. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on US Treasury bond yields (10 - year and 2 - year), the US dollar index, inflation expectations, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, but no specific analysis is provided [7][8]. 3.3. Bauxite - The prices of bauxite in Shanxi and Henan are stable, and the supply of domestic ore is expected to improve. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bauxite has decreased by $1 per dry ton to $71.5 per dry ton. The end of the rainy season in Guinea and the weakening of alumina prices have put downward pressure on bauxite prices [11]. 3.4. Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - in production capacity of alumina remained unchanged week - on - week at 11,462 million tons, the operating capacity increased by 100,000 tons to 9,685 million tons, and the operating rate was 84.5%. The weighted price of domestic spot alumina decreased by 33.7 yuan/ton to 2,837.5 yuan/ton. National alumina inventory increased by 88,000 tons to 4.218 million tons. Some enterprises in the north have reduced production due to heavy pollution weather, while some have slightly increased production after stable operation [14]. 3.5. Important High - Frequency Data of Alumina - The report presents data on alumina basis, port inventory, north - south price difference, and transportation volume, but no specific analysis is provided [16][17][18][19]. 3.6. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged week - on - week at 4.5232 million tons, and the operating capacity decreased by 10,000 tons to 4.4424 million tons. Some enterprises have reduced production for technical upgrades and environmental protection reasons, while new production capacity is expected to be put into operation [23]. 3.7. Important High - Frequency Data of Electrolytic Aluminum - The report presents data on aluminum import profit, Shanghai Aluminum forward curve, aluminum rod processing fee, and thermal coal price, but no specific analysis is provided [25][26][27]. 3.8. Inventory - The report presents data on aluminum rod social inventory, aluminum ingot social inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures inventory, and LME aluminum inventory, but no specific analysis is provided [29][30][31][32]. 3.9. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 59.1% week - on - week. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight and the price is high. The demand from the automotive end has resilience, but the high aluminum price has led to a decline in downstream purchasing enthusiasm. The production of leading enterprises has not been affected for the time being [37]. 3.10. Important High - Frequency Data of Casting Aluminum Alloy - The report presents data on the price of aluminum profiles, the forward curve of aluminum alloy futures, the price difference between ADC12 and A00 aluminum, and the import profit of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots, but no specific analysis is provided [39][40][41][42][43]. 3.11. Downstream Operating Rate (First Part) - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.6% to 61.6% week - on - week. The operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises decreased by 0.9% to 52.6%, with different performance in industrial and construction profiles. The operating rate of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises decreased by 0.4% to 66%, affected by high aluminum prices and the transition to the off - season [49]. 3.12. Downstream Operating Rate (Second Part) - The operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises decreased by 1% to 61.4% week - on - week, mainly due to heavy pollution weather control in some areas of Henan and slow order progress. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy leading enterprises increased by 0.2% to 59.4%, with stable production and increased downstream demand [52].