1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of domestic bauxite remains stable, while the mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore has increased by $3.4 per dry ton to $67 per dry ton due to rising shipping costs. The export restriction measures for Guinea's bauxite will be relatively mild, and the policy is expected to be officially introduced soon. The operating capacity of alumina has increased by 50,000 tons to 93.75 million tons, and the national alumina inventory has increased by 10,000 tons to 5.379 million tons. The current industry profit has been repaired, and enterprises have a strong willingness to maintain stable production. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased by 30,000 tons to 44.786 million tons. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is gradually affecting the production of electrolytic aluminum in the region, and the sharp rise in European natural gas prices has raised concerns about aluminum plant production cuts. Two major aluminum plants in the Middle East were attacked over the weekend, and the extent of capacity damage is currently unknown. On the demand side, the weekly average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased by 1.1% to 64%. Downstream operations are gradually picking up, entering the peak season rhythm, but demand is also suppressed by the sharp fluctuations in high aluminum prices. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of aluminum ingots is still waiting for a turning point. For recycled cast aluminum alloys, new orders for recycled aluminum plants are insufficient, and there is insufficient impetus for the operating rate to recover. Due to concerns about supply, aluminum prices are expected to be boosted, and attention should be paid to the development of the situation [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve, US dollar index, US Treasury yields, and RMB exchange rates, but no specific analysis or conclusions are provided [5]. 3.2 Bauxite - The price of domestic bauxite remains stable. Mines in Shanxi, Henan and other places are gradually resuming production, but fundamental issues such as mining rectification, mine reclamation requirements, and strengthened safety and environmental supervision are difficult to fundamentally resolve in the short term. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore has increased by $3.4 per dry ton to $67 per dry ton. Although some mining enterprises have signed long - term shipping agreements, some long - term agreement prices are linked to oil prices, and the sharp increase in shipping costs, combined with Guinea's plan to restrict bauxite exports, has pushed up the price of imported ore from Guinea. According to ALD, the export restriction measures for Guinea's bauxite will be relatively mild, and the Guinean Ministry of Mines has held talks with relevant mining enterprises, and the policy is expected to be officially introduced soon [8]. 3.3 Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity of alumina was 114.62 million tons, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 93.75 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons week - on - week, with an operating rate of 89.7%. The weighted price of domestic spot alumina was 2,788 yuan per ton, an increase of 15.7 yuan per ton week - on - week. The national alumina inventory was 5.379 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week. National alumina enterprises are operating relatively stably. The current industry profit has been repaired, and enterprises have a strong willingness to maintain stable production. The second phase of a large alumina plant in Hebei is in a state of full shutdown at the roasting end due to policy influence. Currently, the group is accelerating the construction progress of the second and third phases of the roasting furnaces in Jiayuguan, with an expected construction period of 7 - 9 months. Guinean officials said they will restrict bauxite exports, but the measures are expected to be relatively mild, and alumina is expected to show a wide - range bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term [11]. 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.462 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons week - on - week; the operating capacity was 44.786 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons week - on - week. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will gradually affect the production of electrolytic aluminum in the region, and the sharp rise in European natural gas prices has raised concerns about production cuts at European aluminum plants. In terms of new production capacity, 350,000 tons of Zha Aluminum are under construction, and the second phase of 80,000 tons of Tianshan Aluminum is still under construction. In terms of resuming production, 300,000 tons of Liaoning Zhongwang have started to resume production, and Guangxi Longlin is accelerating the revitalization of 57,100 tons of idle production capacity. Overseas, the first - phase 120,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project of Huatong Angola is under construction and may reach full production in the second quarter; the first batch of 500,000 tons of the North Kalimantan electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia is under construction; the Slovak government will seek to restart the Slovalco aluminum plant with a capacity of about 200,000 tons that has been shut down; the about 200,000 - ton production capacity reduction of the Grundartangi electrolytic aluminum plant in Iceland will start to resume production at the end of April, six months earlier than originally planned; two major aluminum plants in Bahrain and the UAE were attacked over the weekend, and the extent of capacity damage is currently unknown; Qatar Aluminum has decided to stop further production cuts and will maintain an operating level of about 60%; the 580,000 - ton capacity of the Mozal aluminum plant in Mozambique has entered a maintenance and maintenance state [20]. 3.5 Inventory - The report presents data on the social inventory of aluminum rods, aluminum ingots, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures inventory, and LME aluminum inventory from 2022 to 2026, but no specific analysis or conclusions are provided [24][25][26][27]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum Alloy - The weekly average operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy leading enterprises remained stable at 59.5%. Some downstream enterprises still face profit pressure, and some die - casting enterprises exporting to the Middle East are facing transportation obstacles. They mainly purchase raw materials based on rigid demand and have a weak willingness to stock up. The recovery rhythm of the demand peak season is lower than expected, new orders for recycled aluminum plants are insufficient, production enthusiasm is not high, and there is insufficient impetus for the operating rate to recover [30]. 3.7 Downstream Operations - The weekly average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1.1% to 64%. - Aluminum profiles: The weekly average operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises increased by 4% to 59%. In the industrial profile sector, the demand in new energy fields such as automobiles and batteries has been good recently, driving up the operating rate of relevant enterprises; orders related to electricity such as power pipelines and transformers have performed well. In the construction profile sector, the decline in aluminum prices has provided some boost to the construction market demand, and downstream orders have increased month - on - month. - Aluminum strips: The weekly average operating rate of aluminum strip leading enterprises increased by 1% to 71%. The aluminum strip market has been stable, and leading enterprises have been producing steadily. In terms of terminal consumption, the downstream demand for energy storage has been continuously strong, and the capacity utilization rate of leading battery cell enterprises has been at a high level, providing support for aluminum strip materials such as battery casings and brazing materials related to energy storage. - Aluminum cables: The weekly average operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises increased by 1% to 66%. Currently, it is a critical period for power grid construction material preparation. Coupled with the accelerated implementation of UHV and power transmission and transformation projects, the characteristics of the peak demand season in the industry are prominent. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is high, the delivery rhythm is tight, and the supply - tight pattern continues. The promotion rhythm of major projects this year has accelerated, with the start of the ±800 kV UHV project from Inner Mongolia West to Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei and the resumption of the 1000 kV project from Datong to Huailai to Tianjin South, as well as the intensive promotion of 500 kV and 200 kV power transmission and transformation projects. - Primary aluminum alloy: The weekly average operating rate of primary aluminum alloy leading enterprises increased by 0.8% to 55%. Terminal consumption has maintained a moderate growth. After the previous inventory has been digested to a certain extent, production enterprises are gradually and steadily increasing their operating levels and increasing output to deliver long - term orders [38][43][46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The development of the Middle East situation is still bullish for aluminum. In the short term, the price may continue to decline. It is recommended to wait for the market sentiment to stabilize before entering the market to place long orders and pay attention to the development of the situation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly View - The price of domestic bauxite is temporarily stable, while the mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore increased by $0.6 per dry ton week - on - week to $63.6 per dry ton. The export restriction measures of Guinea's bauxite are expected to be mild and will be officially introduced from the end of March to early April. The operating capacity of alumina decreased by 200,000 tons week - on - week to 93.7 million tons, and the national alumina inventory increased by 24,000 tons week - on - week to 5.369 million tons. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 30,000 tons week - on - week to 44.756 million tons. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will gradually affect the electrolytic aluminum production in the region, and the sharp rise in European natural gas prices has raised concerns about aluminum plant production cuts. The domestic downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate increased by 1% week - on - week to 62.9%. The aluminum ingot social inventory is still waiting for an inflection point. The operating rate of recycled cast aluminum alloy enterprises has increased seasonally. The Fed's hawkish signals have put pressure on non - ferrous metals [3]. 3.2. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve, the US dollar index, the US Treasury 10 - year yield, the US Treasury real 10 - year yield, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar [5]. 3.3. Bauxite - The price of domestic bauxite is temporarily stable, but it is difficult to maintain in the long term due to the large difference in the real - time theoretical cost between domestic and imported ores used by alumina plants. Mines in Shanxi, Henan and other places are gradually resuming production, but fundamental problems such as mining rectification, mine reclamation requirements, and strengthened safety and environmental supervision are difficult to solve in the short term. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore increased by $0.6 per dry ton week - on - week to $63.6 per dry ton, driven by the sharp rise in freight and the expected export restrictions [8]. 3.4. Alumina - As of last Friday, the alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with no change week - on - week, the operating capacity was 93.9 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons week - on - week, and the operating rate was 81.9%. The domestic spot weighted price was 2,772.3 yuan/ton, an increase of 71.9 yuan/ton week - on - week. The national alumina inventory was 5.345 million tons, an increase of 36,000 tons week - on - week. The operation of alumina enterprises is relatively stable, and the industry profit has been repaired. An alumina plant in Hebei is affected by policies, and a new project in Guangxi is about to start production [11]. 3.5. Important High - Frequency Data of Alumina - The report presents data on the basis, alumina port inventory, north - south price difference, and transportation volume of alumina [13][14][15][16]. 3.6. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.442 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons week - on - week; the operating capacity was 44.756 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons week - on - week. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will affect the production of electrolytic aluminum in the region, and the sharp rise in European natural gas prices has raised concerns about production cuts. There are new investment and restart projects at home and abroad, and some overseas aluminum plants have production adjustment plans [20]. 3.7. Important High - Frequency Data of Electrolytic Aluminum - The report presents data on the processing fee of 6063 aluminum rods, the forward curve of Shanghai aluminum, the price of thermal coal, and the import profit of aluminum [22]. 3.8. Inventory - The report presents data on the social inventory of aluminum rods, the social inventory of aluminum ingots, the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures, and the LME aluminum inventory [24][25][26][27]. 3.9. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy leading enterprises increased by 0.7% week - on - week to 59.5%. The operating rate of recycled aluminum enterprises has increased, but the increase is still mild. Downstream die - casting enterprises have low purchasing enthusiasm [30]. 3.10. Important High - Frequency Data of Cast Aluminum Alloy - The report presents data on the price of profile aluminum, the forward curve of aluminum alloy futures, the price difference between ADC12 and A00, and the import profit of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots [32][33][34][35]. 3.11. Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1% week - on - week to 62.9%. The operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises increased by 3.2% week - on - week to 55%, with different performances in industrial and construction profiles. The operating rate of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises remained stable at 70% week - on - week, with different trends in different orders [38][42]. 3.12. Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises remained stable at 65% week - on - week, with good order expectations in April but cautious purchasing due to high aluminum prices. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy leading enterprises increased by 1.2% week - on - week to 54.2%, with increased orders but some suppression of purchasing due to high aluminum prices [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The supply crisis of aluminum is still intensifying. It is recommended to allocate more positions while controlling the position size. Attention should still be paid to the development of the situation. The impact of the Middle East situation on aluminum prices is two - sided. Currently, the positive factors outweigh the negative ones, but it is not certain. The downstream start - up is gradually rising, entering the peak season rhythm, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots is still waiting for an inflection point [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly View - The price of domestic bauxite is temporarily stable, while the mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore increased by $2.2 per dry ton week - on - week to $63 per dry ton. The operating capacity of alumina increased by 200,000 tons week - on - week to 93.7 million tons, and the national alumina inventory increased by 25,000 tons week - on - week to 5.309 million tons. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 10,000 tons week - on - week to 44.726 million tons. The downstream start - up rate of domestic aluminum processing leading enterprises increased by 2.4% week - on - week to 61.9% [3]. 3.2. Macroeconomic Indicators - The document presents data on the US Treasury yield curve (10 - year and 2 - year), the US dollar index, the US 10 - year Treasury yield and real yield, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB [5]. 3.3. Bauxite - The price of domestic bauxite is temporarily stable, but it is difficult to maintain in the long term due to the large difference in the real - time theoretical cost between domestic and imported ores used by alumina plants. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore increased by $2.2 per dry ton week - on - week to $63 per dry ton. Although some mining enterprises have signed long - term shipping agreements, the increase in shipping costs and other factors have pushed up the price of imported ore from Guinea. The cost of bauxite has increased, but the supply of imported ore is increasing, and the ore price is still under pressure [8]. 3.4. Alumina - As of last Friday, the installed capacity of alumina was 114.62 million tons, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 93.9 million tons, increasing by 200,000 tons week - on - week, with an operating rate of 81.9%. The weighted price of domestic spot alumina was 2,700.4 yuan per ton, increasing by 26.8 yuan per ton week - on - week. The national alumina inventory was 5.345 million tons, increasing by 36,000 tons week - on - week. The market rumor that Guinea may restrict bauxite exports has led to a stronger alumina price, which should be viewed with caution [11]. 3.5. Important High - Frequency Data of Alumina - The document presents data on the basis, port inventory, north - south price difference, and external transportation volume of alumina [13][14][15][16]. 3.6. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the installed capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.422 million tons, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 44.726 million tons, increasing by 10,000 tons week - on - week. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will gradually affect the production of electrolytic aluminum in the region, and the sharp rise in European natural gas prices has raised concerns about aluminum plant production cuts in Europe. There are new investment and restart projects both at home and abroad [20]. 3.7. Important High - Frequency Data of Electrolytic Aluminum - The document presents data on the processing fee of 6063 aluminum rods, the forward curve of Shanghai aluminum, the pit - mouth price and car - board price of thermal coal, and the import profit of aluminum [22]. 3.8. Inventory - The document presents the social inventory data of aluminum rods and ingots, as well as the inventory data of Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures and LME aluminum [24][25][26][27]. 3.9. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The start - up rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 2.5% week - on - week to 58.8%. However, due to policy uncertainty and tight supply of compliant raw materials in some regions, the overall start - up level has not returned to the pre - holiday level. The traditional peak season in March has been weak, and downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand [30]. 3.10. Important High - Frequency Data of Cast Aluminum Alloy - The document presents data on the average price of profile aluminum, the forward curve of aluminum alloy futures, the seasonal trend of the price difference between ADC12 and A00, and the import profit of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots [32][33][34][35]. 3.11. Downstream Start - up (First Part) - The start - up rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased by 2.4% week - on - week to 61.9%. The start - up rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises increased by 7.3% week - on - week to 51.8%, and the production of profile enterprises has fully returned to the pre - holiday normal rhythm. The start - up rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises increased by 1% week - on - week to 70%, but the order volume of automobile plates has decreased [38][42]. 3.12. Downstream Start - up (Second Part) - The start - up rate of leading domestic cable enterprises increased by 2% week - on - week to 65%, and the production rhythm has further accelerated. The start - up rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 1.8% week - on - week to 53%, but the spot trade is light due to the high aluminum price [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate increased by 4.2% to 57% compared with before the holiday. After the holiday, the downstream start - up will gradually rise and enter the peak season rhythm. Although the inventory pressure is large and the supply expectation has improved, the market trading logic has not changed. Coupled with the escalation of the Middle East situation, aluminum prices are still driven. However, as the Middle East situation is expected to cool down, the sustainability of the market is limited [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - economic Indicators - The content shows the trends of the US Treasury yield curve (10 - year and 2 - year), the US dollar index, the US 10 - year Treasury yield and real yield, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, but no specific analysis is given [5]. 3.2 Bauxite - The price of domestic bauxite is stable compared with before the holiday. After the Spring Festival, the domestic bauxite market has not started substantial transactions. Most mines in Shanxi, Henan and other places are still in a shutdown state. Some mines will resume production around the Lantern Festival, and some will postpone until after the Two Sessions. Issues such as mining rectification, mine reclamation requirements, and strengthened safety and environmental protection supervision are difficult to be fundamentally solved in the short term. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore remained stable at $60.5 per dry ton compared with before the holiday. The import ore price is stable in the short - term. After the Spring Festival, the procurement side is in a short - term wait - and - see period, and the miners' reluctance to sell is increasing. The shipping volume of Guinea bauxite continues to increase, and the spot supply of imported ore continues to increase, putting pressure on the ore price [8]. 3.3 Alumina - As of last Friday, the alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, unchanged from before the holiday, and the operating capacity was 93.5 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from before the holiday, with an operating rate of 82.3%. The weighted price of domestic alumina spot was 2,659.9 yuan per ton, a rise of 28 yuan per ton from before the holiday. The national alumina inventory was 5.284 million tons, an increase of 49,000 tons from before the holiday. The second - phase roasting end of a large alumina plant in Hebei was completely shut down due to policy influence, and the dissolution link continued to decline compared with before the Spring Festival. Two alumina enterprises in Shanxi are in the stage of maintenance. Supply - side disturbances support the alumina price [11]. 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.402 million tons, unchanged from before the holiday, and the operating capacity was 44.7 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from before the holiday. With the strengthening of aluminum prices, the future supply expectation of electrolytic aluminum has improved. New production capacity: Zha Aluminum's 350,000 - ton project has entered the trial - production stage, Tianshan Aluminum's second - phase 80,000 - ton project is still under construction and is expected to reach full production within the year. Guangxi Longlin is accelerating the revitalization of 57,100 tons of idle production capacity, and there are rumors that an electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Liaoning may resume production. Overseas, Huatong Angola Industrial Co., Ltd.'s first - phase 120,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project is in production and may reach full production in the second quarter; the first batch of 500,000 - ton of the North Kalimantan electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia is in production. The Slovak government will seek to restart the Slovalco aluminum plant with a capacity of about 200,000 tons, and production may resume as early as summer; the about 200,000 - ton production capacity reduction of Iceland's Grundartangi electrolytic aluminum plant will resume production half a year earlier than planned, starting at the end of April [20]. 3.5 Inventory - After the Spring Festival, the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased significantly, and it will continue to increase in the short term. The report also shows the inventory trends of aluminum rods, aluminum ingots, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures, and LME aluminum from 2022 to 2026 [3][25][26][27][28]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 6.2% to 53.1% compared with before the holiday. The resumption of production in the first week after the holiday was slow. Most enterprises resumed work from the eighth to the fifteenth day of the first lunar month, initially focusing on furnace pre - heating. On the demand side, the terminal industries resumed work in an orderly manner, but the release of orders was not obvious. Downstream procurement was mainly for rigid - demand replenishment and inventory digestion [31]. 3.7 Downstream Start - up - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 4.2% to 57% compared with before the holiday. - Aluminum profiles: The operating rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises increased by 11.5% to 37% compared with before the holiday. After the Spring Festival, profile enterprises gradually entered the resumption of work and production stage, and the operating level increased significantly compared with before the holiday. In the industrial profile sector, photovoltaic profiles performed relatively well, while in the building profile sector, the performance was still weak. - Aluminum strips: The operating rate of leading aluminum strip enterprises increased by 4% to 67% compared with before the holiday. In the first week after the Spring Festival, the overall resumption of work in the industry was slow. Some enterprises completed equipment upgrading and maintenance during the Spring Festival and have gradually resumed work. The recovery rhythm of the downstream is different. There is no signal of warming in the building downstream, and there is a shortage of orders for curtain wall panels and aluminum veneers. Orders for high - value - added products such as automobile panels and aviation panels are relatively stable. - Aluminum cables: The operating rate of leading domestic cable enterprises increased by 4% to 57% compared with before the holiday. The power grid continued to place orders after the holiday, matching and revitalizing enterprise orders. The resumption of work of enterprises after the holiday slightly exceeded expectations. The downstream start - up and production will bottom out and rebound. - Primary aluminum alloy: The operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises decreased by 1.5% to 55.8% compared with before the holiday. The holiday factor led to a general decline in enterprise operations, and the downstream enterprises had concentrated holiday time. The resumption of production after the holiday was slower than in previous years, and the overall demand was poor [39][44][48].

Group 1 - The company, Lichung Group (300428.SZ), primarily engages in three main businesses: aluminum-based functional intermediate alloys, recycled casting aluminum alloys, and aluminum alloy wheels [1] - The company holds a 45% stake in an associate company that specializes in lithium hexafluorophosphate products [1] - Currently, the company is not involved in the PCB materials business [1]

Group 1 - The company, Lichung Group (300428.SZ), primarily engages in three main businesses: aluminum-based functional intermediate alloys, recycled casting aluminum alloys, and aluminum alloy wheels [1] - The company holds a 45% stake in an associate company that specializes in lithium hexafluorophosphate products [1] - Currently, the company is not involved in the PCB materials business [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: January 19, 2026 - Research Team: Industrial Service Headquarters | Non - ferrous Metals Team - Researcher: Wang Guodong [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of bauxite in Shanxi and Henan are temporarily stable, while the mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore has decreased week - on - week. Both domestic and foreign ore prices are expected to continue to decline under pressure. The alumina market has a relatively stable supply, but the previous hype about enterprise restructuring has cooled down, and the alumina price has given back its previous gains. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, and new production capacities are being put into operation at home and abroad. The overall demand for aluminum is gradually entering the off - season, and the start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises may continue to face pressure. The social inventory of aluminum ingots is accumulating. In the short term, Shanghai aluminum may continue to adjust at a high level [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Economic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve (2 - year, 10 - year, 10 - year minus 2 - year), the US dollar index, the US Treasury 10 - year real yield, inflation expectations, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB (inter - bank middle rate, on - shore and off - shore spot rates) [6][7] 3.2 Bauxite - The prices of bauxite in Shanxi and Henan are temporarily stable. Due to the small proportion of circulating goods, the prices of domestic ore have stabilized after a general reduction, and it is not yet the next long - term contract negotiation cycle. Mining rectification, mine reclamation requirements, and strengthened safety and environmental supervision are still the core bottlenecks restricting the resumption of production of many mines, which are difficult to solve fundamentally in the short term. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore has decreased by $1.9 per dry ton week - on - week to $63.8 per dry ton. The shipping volume of Guinea ore has increased, the spot supply of imported ore has increased, and the ore price continues to be under pressure. In terms of long - term contracts, the first - quarter long - term contract signing work in the imported ore market has basically ended, and some contracts adopt the monthly pricing model [10] 3.3 Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - in production capacity of alumina was 11,462 tons (unchanged week - on - week), the operating capacity was 9,625 tons (an increase of 40 tons week - on - week), and the start - up rate was 84%. The weighted price of domestic spot alumina was 2,627.6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 34.1 yuan/ton. The national alumina inventory was 4.988 million tons, an increase of 53,000 tons week - on - week. The national alumina supply is relatively stable. In late January, two alumina plants in Guangxi will conduct rotational maintenance on their roasting furnaces for about 12 days, and it is expected to affect a total output of about 30,000 tons during the maintenance period. The previous hype about the restructuring of alumina enterprises has cooled down, and combined with the correction of the non - ferrous metal sector, the alumina futures price has given back its previous gains [13] 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,540.2 tons (an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week), and the operating capacity was 4,463.4 tons (an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week). In terms of new production capacities, the first - phase 120,000 - ton production capacity of Tianshan Aluminum has reached full production, the second - phase 80,000 - ton is still under construction and is expected to reach full production this year. The 350,000 - ton production capacity of Zha Aluminum will be built and put into production and reach full production in 2026. Overseas, on January 15, the first - phase 120,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project of Huatong Angola Industrial Co., Ltd. was officially put into operation and may reach full production in the second quarter. On January 11, the first batch of 500,000 tons of the North Kalimantan electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia started production. On January 13, the Slovak government sought to restart the Slovalco aluminum plant with a capacity of about 200,000 tons, and production may resume as early as summer [22] 3.5 Inventory - The report presents the historical data of the social inventory of aluminum rods, the social inventory of aluminum ingots, the Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures inventory, and the LME aluminum inventory from 2022 to 2026. The social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to accumulate during the week [27][28][29][30] 3.6 Casting Aluminum Alloy - The start - up rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 58% week - on - week. Due to the continuous heavy - pollution weather, the regional production restriction policy has been repeatedly implemented, and the start - up rate of enterprises affected by environmental protection production restrictions in the early stage has not recovered. Under the high aluminum price limit, the orders of some recycled aluminum plants have decreased significantly, but downstream die - casting enterprises have been forced to replenish inventory to maintain normal production [33] 3.7 Downstream Start - up - Last week, the start - up rate of leading domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased by 0.2% week - on - week to 60.3%. The start - up rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises decreased by 0.9% week - on - week to 47.9%. In the industrial profile sector, the start - up rate of sample enterprises in the photovoltaic profile segment has slightly increased driven by the component export tax - refund policy, while the automotive profile is relatively stable. In the construction profile sector, the start - up rate has continued to decline, and the downstream market is gradually entering the shutdown and holiday cycle. The start - up rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises increased by 1% week - on - week to 66%. The strong pre - Spring Festival stocking demand for can materials has driven the start - up rate of aluminum plate and strip to recover. However, the processing fee space of mid - and low - end products has been squeezed by the aluminum price, and downstream enterprises have generally postponed their pre - holiday stocking plans and only maintained the on - demand procurement rhythm. The start - up rate of domestic leading cable enterprises remained stable at 59.6% week - on - week. After the New Year's Day holiday, enterprises concentrated on digesting the previously accumulated orders, and the grid order matching work was carried out in an orderly manner. The start - up rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 0.2% week - on - week to 58.6%. Although the aluminum price is high, approaching the Spring Festival, alloy enterprises have successively carried out pre - holiday inventory replenishment, promoting a slight increase in the start - up rate. Downstream enterprises that previously adopted a two - day weekend due to the high aluminum price have gradually resumed normal production rhythms, and some enterprises have begun to gradually accept the current aluminum price level and carry out pre - holiday inventory replenishment [45][49]

Core Viewpoint - Lichung Group is expected to report impressive financial results for 2025, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from 830 million to 870 million yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 17.38% to 23.04% [1][2] Financial Performance - The company's net profit and net profit excluding non-recurring items are both set to reach new highs for the fifth consecutive year, with net profit expected to be between 830 million and 870 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items projected between 750 million and 790 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 23.42% to 30.00% [2][3] - Historical net profit figures from 2021 to 2024 were 450 million, 492 million, 606 million, and 707 million yuan, with respective growth rates of 4.04%, 9.41%, 22.98%, and 16.77% [2][3] Business Operations - The growth in profit is attributed to several factors, including steady increases in production and sales across various business segments, with projected sales of 23.4 million aluminum alloy wheels, 1.26 million tons of recycled aluminum alloy, and 120,000 tons of functional intermediate alloys, leading to an expected total sales revenue of 32 billion yuan [3] - The overseas production capacity in the aluminum alloy wheel segment is being effectively utilized, with operations in Thailand and Mexico enhancing global supply capabilities [3] - The lithium hexafluorophosphate business has turned profitable due to market price recovery and increased capacity utilization, contributing positively to overall profitability [3] Research and Development - Lichung Group has maintained a research and development expense rate exceeding 3% over the past four years, with R&D expenses of 663 million, 745 million, 934 million, and 730 million yuan from 2022 to the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 20.17%, 12.32%, 25.41%, and 6.65% [4][5] Strategic Partnerships - The company has entered into a strategic cooperation agreement with Beijing Weijing Intelligent Technology Co., focusing on humanoid robots, which includes material supply, assembly, and testing for diverse applications [5] - A subsequent procurement agreement for humanoid robot components worth approximately 75 million yuan has been signed, marking a significant step in the company's expansion into the humanoid robotics sector [5] Acquisitions - Lichung Group plans to acquire an additional 20% stake in MQP International for approximately 2.11 million yuan, increasing its ownership from 70% to 90%, which will enhance control over the subsidiary and strengthen its position in the aluminum-based functional intermediate alloy market [6]

Core Viewpoint - Lichong Group (300428) anticipates a net profit of 830 million to 870 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.38% to 23.04% compared to 707 million yuan in the previous year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is expected to be between 750 million and 790 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23.42% to 30.00% [1] - If the impact of accounting estimate changes from the previous year is excluded, the net profit growth rate could reach 45.14% to 52.13% [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The growth in 2025 is attributed to the synergistic efforts across multiple business segments and the deepening of the globalization strategy [1] - The aluminum alloy wheel segment is projected to achieve sales of 23.4 million units, while the recycled aluminum alloy segment is expected to reach 1.26 million tons, and the functional intermediate alloy segment is anticipated to sell 120,000 tons [1] - Total sales revenue is expected to exceed 32 billion yuan, with all business segment figures reflecting external data after consolidation [1] Group 3: Strategic Developments - The globalization of the aluminum alloy wheel business has shown significant results, with production bases in Thailand and Mexico enhancing global supply chain resilience and increasing high-end customer orders [1] - The lithium hexafluorophosphate business has turned profitable since November 2025, benefiting from market price recovery and the introduction of strategic investors [2] - The three core business segments have formed a good synergy, with recycled aluminum providing stable raw material supply for aluminum alloy wheels, and functional intermediate alloys enhancing product performance [2] Group 4: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The growth in performance is supported by macro policies and market trends, with increasing demand for lightweight materials driven by the rising penetration of new energy vehicles [2] - The market for aluminum alloy wheels and recycled aluminum is expanding, supported by global carbon neutrality goals [2] - Emerging fields such as humanoid robots and semiconductors are driving demand for high-performance alloys, indicating a shift from traditional aluminum processing to high-tech material solutions [3] - The strategic layout in emerging fields is expected to capture market opportunities and enhance product premium through collaboration with high-end customers [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Lichong Group, anticipates a positive growth in net profit for the year 2025, with a steady improvement in profitability. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 830 million to 870 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.38% to 23.04% compared to the previous year's profit of 707.12 million yuan [2] - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 750 million to 790 million yuan, up from 607.68 million yuan last year, indicating a growth of 23.42% to 30% [2] - If excluding the impact of accounting estimate changes from the previous year, the net profit growth range for 2025 could reach 45.14% to 52.13% [2] Group 2: Business Development - The company reports steady growth in production and sales across various business segments, with expected sales revenue of 32 billion yuan for the year, supported by the aluminum alloy wheel segment projected to sell 23.4 million units, recycled aluminum alloy segment expected to sell 1.26 million tons, and functional intermediate alloy segment expected to sell 120,000 tons [2] - The overseas capacity layout continues to release, with significant results in high-end customer expansion, as the aluminum alloy wheel segments in Thailand and Mexico are operational, enhancing global supply capabilities [3] - The lithium hexafluorophosphate business has turned profitable, benefiting from market price recovery and the introduction of strategic investors, with steady growth in capacity utilization and order volume since November 2025 [3] - The optimization of product structure and customer matrix, along with the expansion into emerging markets, is laying a foundation for sustained profitability, with active promotion of new materials and products in sectors like new energy vehicles, humanoid robots, aerospace, and semiconductors [3]