Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and eight other departments issued the "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Nonferrous Metal Industry (2025-2026)", aiming for an average annual growth of around 5% in value added and a 1.5% increase in the production of ten nonferrous metals [2][3] Group 1: Industry Goals and Measures - The plan sets specific targets, including a production of over 20 million tons of recycled metals and accelerated domestic resource development for copper, aluminum, and lithium [2] - Five categories of ten specific measures are proposed to address high resource dependency and insufficient high-end supply, focusing on resource development and industrial transformation [2] - A new round of exploration strategies will be implemented to enhance the exploration and mining rights allocation for strategic resources like copper, aluminum, and lithium [2][3] Group 2: Technological and Digital Transformation - The plan emphasizes the integration of artificial intelligence in the nonferrous metal sector and aims for a 25% increase in production efficiency through smart upgrades in the smelting process [2][3] - High-end material breakthroughs are targeted, including copper alloy materials and new rare earth materials [2] Group 3: Financial and Monitoring Support - Financial measures include a proposed 50 billion yuan investment fund for the recycled metal industry and the coordination of long-term special government bonds [3] - An industry big data monitoring system will be established to manage key enterprises and projects dynamically, along with a capacity warning mechanism for key products like copper and aluminum [3] Group 4: Market Trends and Price Projections - Prices for various nonferrous metals are expected to rise due to strict supply controls and the anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [4] - Historical data shows a strong correlation between nonferrous metal prices and the U.S. dollar's monetary cycle, suggesting an overall upward trend in prices [4] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Short-term investment opportunities are seen in the recycled metals and copper smelting sectors, while long-term growth is expected for companies focused on domestic copper, aluminum, and lithium resources [5][6] - Companies in the copper sector are recommended for their potential benefits from supply constraints and improving demand dynamics, particularly in light of the Fed's anticipated rate cuts [6]

Group 1: Securities Industry - The report highlights a favorable configuration opportunity in the securities sector, driven by multiple factors including policy support for capital market development, increased market participation from institutions and residents, and a recovery in brokerage business lines [2][4]. - The current valuation and positioning of the brokerage sector are at mid-low levels since 2014, suggesting a high cost-performance investment opportunity [2][4]. Group 2: Nonferrous Metals Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments released a "Stabilization Growth Work Plan for the Nonferrous Metals Industry (2025-2026)", aiming to address resource security and demand issues, promoting stable operation and transformation of the industry [2][3]. - Short-term investment opportunities are expected in the recycling metals and copper smelting sectors, while long-term benefits are anticipated for domestic copper, aluminum, and lithium resource mining companies [2][3]. - Companies with extensive experience in copper, aluminum, and magnesium alloy processing are likely to benefit from the upgrading of materials in automotive and electronics sectors, leading to increased processing fees and profits [2][3]. Group 3: Banking Sector - The report indicates an improvement in the cost-performance ratio for quality banks, with some banks' dividend yields exceeding 5% [4]. - The banking sector is expected to see a recovery in core business profitability and asset quality, driven by policy focus on stabilizing interest margins and preventing tail risks [4]. - Recommended stocks include quality regional banks and those with stable dividends, such as Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [4]. Group 4: Power Equipment and New Energy - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a significant increase in production, with a projected output of 135.8 GWh in October, reflecting a 7.9% month-on-month increase [5]. - The demand for energy storage is expected to exceed expectations, driven by the domestic market and the electrification of commercial vehicles [5]. Group 5: Petrochemical Industry - The "Stabilization Growth Work Plan for the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)" aims to enhance high-end supply and regulate major project construction, which is expected to optimize supply in various sub-sectors [9]. - The report recommends companies such as Hengli Petrochemical and Tongkun Co., Ltd. due to anticipated improvements in industry conditions and the development of high-end chemical materials [9]. Group 6: Company Ratings - Changfei Optical Fiber is rated "Buy" with a target price of 115.52 RMB, driven by its leading position in the optical fiber market and expected growth from AI infrastructure [12][14]. - The report also highlights the dual business strategy of Weigao Medical, projecting a return to normal operations in its consumer goods segment and continued growth in its medical segment [13][14].

期货研究报告|有色专题报告 2025-09-18 废铜行业税收政策调整对当前行情影响探讨 研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 陈思捷 师橙 021-60828513 shicheng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3046665 投资咨询号：Z0014806 封帆 021-60827969 fengfan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03036024 投资咨询号：Z0014660 王育武 总体而言，在目前矿端原料持续偏紧，冶炼加工费维持低位的情况下，国家对于再生 资源以及国内涉废企业相关税务规范的整治以及通过反内卷政策挤出相对落后的产能 显然旨在维护国内重要资源未来供应的稳定及消除各地政策执行不统一所形成的"政策 洼地"从而导致产业出现相对不公平竞争的情况。但短期来看，则仍可能对于原料供应 产生一定冲击，而在目前临近美联储议息会议，市场对于降息预期相对较高，叠加"金 九银十"传统消费旺季以及部分国内冶炼厂检修等综合因素的影响，不排除在 9 至 10 月间，铜价或维持偏强态势，对于有买入套保需求的企业在此期间则建议积极逢低买 入套保，而若要进行卖出套保操作的企业则建议在 84000 元/吨至 84500 元/ ...

Core Viewpoint - The global competition for raw materials in the recycled metals industry is intensifying, prompting China to enhance its recycling efficiency and expand its import categories for recycled metal materials [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The dual drivers of China's "dual carbon" goals and the rapid development of the new energy industry are highlighting the resource security value and low-carbon attributes of recycled metals [1]. - By 2025, 63 countries globally will include recycled metal utilization in their carbon neutrality assessment systems, indicating a significant shift in international standards [1]. - Major international players are accelerating mergers and acquisitions to secure quality raw material resources, leading to a restructuring of the global recycled metal trade landscape [1]. Group 2: Regional Developments - In response to new changes, domestic companies are actively building a global recycling network and increasing research and development in recycling technologies to ensure stable supply of recycled metal materials [2]. - Southeast Asia and South Asia are emerging as new markets for global raw material distribution, with India importing an average of 1.8 million tons of recycled aluminum annually and Thailand's waste aluminum exports surging by 76% year-on-year [1]. - Countries like the US and EU are implementing tax incentives and regulations to boost local recycled metal industries, while regions like Southeast Asia are enhancing environmental regulations and considering import restrictions [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts predict that the recovery volume of recycled metal materials will significantly increase over the next five years, but the growth in demand may outpace supply [2]. - To strengthen China's "domestic + import" supply structure for recycled metal materials, it is recommended to establish an "Internet + recycling" smart system to improve the efficiency and precision of sorting recycled metal materials using AI technology [2].

Core Insights - The 2025 China Recycling Metal Industry High-Quality Development Summit was held in Fengcheng, Jiangxi, where the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's Recycling Metal Branch released the list of the top 30 recycling nonferrous metal enterprises for 2024 [1] - The revenue threshold for entering the top 30 recycling nonferrous metal enterprises is set at 4.144 billion yuan, with 17 companies exceeding 10 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 57% of the total [1] - The total revenue of the top 30 enterprises reached 392.895 billion yuan, with the top 20 enterprises' total revenue increasing to 333.135 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 24% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Among the top 30 enterprises, 11 recycling copper companies generated a combined revenue of 157.609 billion yuan, accounting for 40% of the total [1] - Six recycling aluminum companies reported a total revenue of 60.596 billion yuan, making up 15% of the total [1] - Four recycling lead companies achieved a combined revenue of 36.219 billion yuan, representing 10% of the total [1] - Nine multi-metal recycling enterprises (with two or more varieties) generated a total revenue of 138.471 billion yuan, accounting for 35% of the total [1]

数据显示，2025年1至7月，我国主要再生有色金属产量约1150万吨，同比增长4.55%；国内主要废旧有 色金属回收利用量（金属量）约935万吨，同比增长4.8%；预计全年主要再生有色金属产量有望突破 2000万吨。 12日，2025年中国再生金属产业高质量发展峰会在江西丰城举行，会上中国有色金属工业协会副秘书 长、再生金属分会副会长兼秘书长王吉位表示，据预测，到2030年，全球再生有色金属回收市场规模将 突破2.2万亿元人民币，我国将占比40%以上。 （文章来源：新华财经） 近年来，再生金属行业的资源保障价值和低碳减排属性日益凸显，国内再生金属行业发展势头良好。截 至2025年，我国涉及再生有色金属业务的上市公司超100家、中国民营企业500强企业中超20家入围。再 生有色金属营收30强企业营收总额超3900亿元，为产业发展质量全面提升提供了有力支撑。 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The Chinese government has introduced multiple policies to support the development of the recycled metals industry, predicting that the proportion of metal raw materials from recycling will continue to rise, potentially becoming dominant in sectors like new energy [1][2] - The concept of "urban mining" refers to recyclable resources embedded in various waste carriers, including steel, non-ferrous metals, precious metals, plastics, and rubber, which are increasingly recognized for their resource security and low-carbon properties [2][3] Group 2: Policy Support - In June, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment and the General Administration of Customs announced that from August 1, compliant recycled black powder for lithium-ion batteries would no longer be classified as solid waste and could be freely imported [3] - The "reverse invoicing" policy allows qualified recycling enterprises to issue invoices to individuals selling scrap products, addressing long-standing issues related to the lack of documentation in the recycling sector [3] Group 3: Company Performance - Leading companies in the recycled metals sector, such as GEM Co., Ltd., are focusing on key metal recovery, with projected recoveries of 20,000 tons of nickel, 10,000 tons of cobalt, and 6,500 tons of tungsten in 2024 [2][4] - GEM Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 17.561 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, with key metal resource recycling contributing 6.467 billion yuan, accounting for 41.76% of total revenue [4] Group 4: Supply Chain and Raw Material Sourcing - Stable raw material supply is crucial for the development of recycled metal enterprises, with companies like Yiqiu Metal Resource Recycling focusing on building a global aluminum procurement network [5] - Camel Group Co., Ltd. has established a nationwide network for the recycling of waste lead-acid batteries, ensuring a stable supply of lead for battery manufacturing [6] Group 5: Industry Challenges and Recommendations - The recycling market faces challenges from informal operations that undercut larger, compliant enterprises, prompting calls for stricter regulation and the establishment of a "white list" of qualified companies [7] - Companies advocate for enhanced international cooperation to expand resource acquisition, suggesting that the government refine import standards for high-value, low-pollution metal waste [8]

Group 1: Core Insights - The article highlights the strategic importance of recycling copper to ensure the security of China's critical metal supply chain amid increasing global competition for copper resources [1][2][3] - The establishment of a recycling copper base in Thailand by Rui Mao Tong Group is a key step in creating a comprehensive industrial chain from overseas copper recovery to domestic processing and sales [1][2] - The shift in China's waste copper import policy, allowing for the import of high-quality recycled copper with zero tariffs, has opened new opportunities for companies like Rui Mao Tong Group [2][3] Group 2: Industry Context - China consumes over 55% of the world's copper, yet its domestic copper resources are limited, with only 4% of global reserves and an import dependency of 83.7% for refined copper in 2024 [2][3] - The global competition for copper resources has intensified due to disruptions in major copper-producing countries, making the development of the recycled copper industry crucial for China [3][4] - The Chinese government aims to increase the share of recycled metals to 30% by 2025, with a target of producing 4 million tons of recycled copper [5] Group 3: Environmental and Economic Benefits - Recycled copper production consumes only 20% of the energy required for primary copper production and reduces carbon emissions by 65%, aligning with China's carbon neutrality goals [4][6] - The cost advantages of recycled copper, along with its environmental benefits, are driving demand from small and medium-sized enterprises in the copper component manufacturing sector [6][7] - The establishment of a recycling base in Thailand allows for reduced logistics losses and lower energy consumption in domestic processing, supporting China's dual carbon strategy [6][7] Group 4: Future Developments - Rui Mao Tong Group is actively pursuing partnerships with downstream manufacturers to build a green supply chain and enhance the recycling industry's transformation and high-quality development [2][6] - The cooperation mechanism between China and neighboring countries in the recycled non-ferrous metal industry is being accelerated, with preliminary agreements reached with Thailand [7] - The article emphasizes the importance of continuous monitoring of international trade policies and market dynamics to adapt to the evolving landscape of the recycled metal industry [4][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the transformation of waste into resources through advanced processing techniques, contributing to environmental sustainability and energy generation [1] - The company, Yougreen Environmental Technology Co., processes approximately 36,500 tons of kitchen waste annually, generating 3.65 million cubic meters of biogas, which translates to an annual electricity generation of about 8.03 million kilowatt-hours, reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 4,300 tons [1] - The establishment of a circular economy industrial park in Changge City has created a billion-yuan-level recycled metal industry cluster, saving nearly 7 million tons of standard coal and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by over 18 million tons annually [1] Group 2 - Since becoming one of the first national pilot "waste-free cities" in 2019, the green industry has emerged as a new driving force for economic growth in Xuchang, with 106 green factories and 3 green parks established [2] - The city has implemented a comprehensive waste classification system, achieving 100% harmless treatment rate and 85% resource utilization rate for domestic waste [2] - Xuchang is integrating low-carbon concepts into urban and rural development, with full coverage of new energy buses and taxis, and 7,800 public bicycles available throughout the city [2] Group 3 - Xuchang has significantly improved its urban green space, with a green coverage rate of 45.77% and an average of 18.01 square meters of park green space per person [3] - The city has developed 238 parks, creating a landscape where residents can access green spaces within 300 meters and parks within 500 meters [3] - Water ecological landscape projects have been implemented, enhancing the green area of river and lake systems in the urban area to 6,500 acres, promoting a clean and beautiful water ecosystem [3]

Group 1 - The company, Shunbo Alloy, has indicated that its existing recycled cast aluminum alloy products are primarily used in the automotive, motorcycle, machinery manufacturing, and home appliance sectors [2] - The company is currently constructing a project in Anhui for recycled deformed aluminum alloy products, which will mainly be applied in battery foil blank materials, battery casings, and can materials, including 3C products such as mobile phones [2]