格隆汇11月25日丨中再资环(600217.SH)在互动平台表示，我公司为再生铝供应商，欧盟若限制废铝出 口，对我公司直接影响较小。 ...

格隆汇11月25日丨中再资环(600217.SH)在互动平台表示，我公司为再生铝供应商，欧盟若限制废铝出 口，对我公司直接影响较小。 ...

"十五五"循环经济有望释放潜力，再生金属行业大有可为 【】【】[Table_Industry] 环保周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 11 月 23 日 15666646523.tcy | 证券研究报告 | | | --- | --- | | 行业研究——周报 | | | [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 | | | [Table_StockAndRank] 环保 | | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | 郭雪环保联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525030002 邮箱：guoxue@cindasc.com 吴柏莹环保行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524100001 信达证券股份有限公司 [Table_Title] "十五五"循环经济有望释放潜力，再生金属行业大 有可为 2025 年 11 月 23 日 本期内容提要: 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 [Table_Author] 化工行业： 邮箱：wuboying@cindasc.com CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西 ...

Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and eight other departments issued the "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Nonferrous Metal Industry (2025-2026)", aiming for an average annual growth of around 5% in value added and a 1.5% increase in the production of ten nonferrous metals [2][3] Group 1: Industry Goals and Measures - The plan sets specific targets, including a production of over 20 million tons of recycled metals and accelerated domestic resource development for copper, aluminum, and lithium [2] - Five categories of ten specific measures are proposed to address high resource dependency and insufficient high-end supply, focusing on resource development and industrial transformation [2] - A new round of exploration strategies will be implemented to enhance the exploration and mining rights allocation for strategic resources like copper, aluminum, and lithium [2][3] Group 2: Technological and Digital Transformation - The plan emphasizes the integration of artificial intelligence in the nonferrous metal sector and aims for a 25% increase in production efficiency through smart upgrades in the smelting process [2][3] - High-end material breakthroughs are targeted, including copper alloy materials and new rare earth materials [2] Group 3: Financial and Monitoring Support - Financial measures include a proposed 50 billion yuan investment fund for the recycled metal industry and the coordination of long-term special government bonds [3] - An industry big data monitoring system will be established to manage key enterprises and projects dynamically, along with a capacity warning mechanism for key products like copper and aluminum [3] Group 4: Market Trends and Price Projections - Prices for various nonferrous metals are expected to rise due to strict supply controls and the anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [4] - Historical data shows a strong correlation between nonferrous metal prices and the U.S. dollar's monetary cycle, suggesting an overall upward trend in prices [4] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Short-term investment opportunities are seen in the recycled metals and copper smelting sectors, while long-term growth is expected for companies focused on domestic copper, aluminum, and lithium resources [5][6] - Companies in the copper sector are recommended for their potential benefits from supply constraints and improving demand dynamics, particularly in light of the Fed's anticipated rate cuts [6]

Group 1: Securities Industry - The report highlights a favorable configuration opportunity in the securities sector, driven by multiple factors including policy support for capital market development, increased market participation from institutions and residents, and a recovery in brokerage business lines [2][4]. - The current valuation and positioning of the brokerage sector are at mid-low levels since 2014, suggesting a high cost-performance investment opportunity [2][4]. Group 2: Nonferrous Metals Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments released a "Stabilization Growth Work Plan for the Nonferrous Metals Industry (2025-2026)", aiming to address resource security and demand issues, promoting stable operation and transformation of the industry [2][3]. - Short-term investment opportunities are expected in the recycling metals and copper smelting sectors, while long-term benefits are anticipated for domestic copper, aluminum, and lithium resource mining companies [2][3]. - Companies with extensive experience in copper, aluminum, and magnesium alloy processing are likely to benefit from the upgrading of materials in automotive and electronics sectors, leading to increased processing fees and profits [2][3]. Group 3: Banking Sector - The report indicates an improvement in the cost-performance ratio for quality banks, with some banks' dividend yields exceeding 5% [4]. - The banking sector is expected to see a recovery in core business profitability and asset quality, driven by policy focus on stabilizing interest margins and preventing tail risks [4]. - Recommended stocks include quality regional banks and those with stable dividends, such as Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [4]. Group 4: Power Equipment and New Energy - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a significant increase in production, with a projected output of 135.8 GWh in October, reflecting a 7.9% month-on-month increase [5]. - The demand for energy storage is expected to exceed expectations, driven by the domestic market and the electrification of commercial vehicles [5]. Group 5: Petrochemical Industry - The "Stabilization Growth Work Plan for the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)" aims to enhance high-end supply and regulate major project construction, which is expected to optimize supply in various sub-sectors [9]. - The report recommends companies such as Hengli Petrochemical and Tongkun Co., Ltd. due to anticipated improvements in industry conditions and the development of high-end chemical materials [9]. Group 6: Company Ratings - Changfei Optical Fiber is rated "Buy" with a target price of 115.52 RMB, driven by its leading position in the optical fiber market and expected growth from AI infrastructure [12][14]. - The report also highlights the dual business strategy of Weigao Medical, projecting a return to normal operations in its consumer goods segment and continued growth in its medical segment [13][14].

Group 1: Report Summary - The 770th document of the National Development and Reform Commission in August 2025 included "tax rebates" in the list of illegal investment - promotion practices. Enterprises registered after May 2024 should cancel local retention rebates by the end of August, while those registered before can have a buffer until 2027. Some regions like Jiangxi and Anhui have already suspended rebates in September [2]. - The policy targets the "white - slip accounting" model in the recycled copper industry, and the practice of relying on local fiscal tax refunds of 4 - 6 percentage points is restricted, causing a sharp increase in enterprise costs [2]. - Referring to the experience of the lead industry, the recycled lead industry is in a "standardization pain period" with polarization. Leading enterprises adapt quickly, while small and medium - sized enterprises face challenges [3]. - When the scrap copper industry enters the "no - rebate era", enterprises should shift their competitiveness from "fiscal bonuses" to "real spreads", and investors should focus on local implementation rhythm and copper price rebound height [3]. Group 2: Background and Review - Since 2016, the policy orientation of the recycled metal industry has evolved from "environmental protection rectification" to "tax standardization". In the early stage, many small - scale scrap copper recycling workshops were shut down due to environmental non - compliance [10]. - Since 2019, policy focus has shifted to tax regulatory supervision. The "reverse invoicing" mechanism in 2024 marked the upgrade of the tax supervision system [10]. Group 3: Impact of Tax Policy on Domestic Scrap - related Enterprises Lead Industry Example - Before the "reverse invoicing" policy, the recycled lead industry had problems such as high tax costs, tax evasion, and environmental risks due to the lack of input tax deductions [11]. - After the implementation of the "reverse invoicing" policy, there were challenges such as data traceability difficulties, regional policy differences, and slow integration of individual recyclers [12][13]. - The recycled lead industry shows polarization. Leading enterprises' market share has reached over 50%, while small and medium - sized enterprises' capacity utilization has dropped from 75% to 45% [3][13]. Impact on Scrap Copper Enterprises - The 770th document affects the scrap copper industry. Enterprises relying on local fiscal tax refunds face cost - doubling pressure [20]. - In the worst - case scenario of full cancellation of rebates, the comprehensive tax rate of recycled copper enterprises will rise from 5.6% to 11.7% - 13.3%, and production capacity will shrink significantly. In the neutral scenario of partial cancellation, the impact is relatively mild [22]. - Enterprises should improve the proportion of taxable purchases at the raw material end, transfer taxes to downstream at the sales end, choose regions with long policy buffer periods, and use financial tools such as futures [3][24]. Group 4: Current Situation of Domestic Recycled Copper Rods - In the past 5 years, domestic recycled copper rod capacity has increased by nearly 400%, but there are many inefficient capacities. Since the second half of this year, enterprises have little profit [25]. - From January to July 2025, domestic scrap - produced blister copper output increased by 13.60% year - on - year, while scrap copper imports decreased by 0.5% year - on - year. The loss of the US as an import source may limit future import growth [26]. Group 5: Summary and Hedging Strategy Suggestions - The government's rectification of recycled resources and tax norms aims to ensure the stable supply of important resources and eliminate unfair competition. However, it may impact raw material supply in the short term [4][28]. - Considering various factors, copper prices may remain strong from September to October. Enterprises with buying hedging needs are advised to buy on dips, and those with selling hedging needs should increase hedging efforts in the price range of 84,000 - 84,500 yuan/ton [4][28].

Core Viewpoint - The global competition for raw materials in the recycled metals industry is intensifying, prompting China to enhance its recycling efficiency and expand its import categories for recycled metal materials [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The dual drivers of China's "dual carbon" goals and the rapid development of the new energy industry are highlighting the resource security value and low-carbon attributes of recycled metals [1]. - By 2025, 63 countries globally will include recycled metal utilization in their carbon neutrality assessment systems, indicating a significant shift in international standards [1]. - Major international players are accelerating mergers and acquisitions to secure quality raw material resources, leading to a restructuring of the global recycled metal trade landscape [1]. Group 2: Regional Developments - In response to new changes, domestic companies are actively building a global recycling network and increasing research and development in recycling technologies to ensure stable supply of recycled metal materials [2]. - Southeast Asia and South Asia are emerging as new markets for global raw material distribution, with India importing an average of 1.8 million tons of recycled aluminum annually and Thailand's waste aluminum exports surging by 76% year-on-year [1]. - Countries like the US and EU are implementing tax incentives and regulations to boost local recycled metal industries, while regions like Southeast Asia are enhancing environmental regulations and considering import restrictions [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts predict that the recovery volume of recycled metal materials will significantly increase over the next five years, but the growth in demand may outpace supply [2]. - To strengthen China's "domestic + import" supply structure for recycled metal materials, it is recommended to establish an "Internet + recycling" smart system to improve the efficiency and precision of sorting recycled metal materials using AI technology [2].

Core Insights - The 2025 China Recycling Metal Industry High-Quality Development Summit was held in Fengcheng, Jiangxi, where the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's Recycling Metal Branch released the list of the top 30 recycling nonferrous metal enterprises for 2024 [1] - The revenue threshold for entering the top 30 recycling nonferrous metal enterprises is set at 4.144 billion yuan, with 17 companies exceeding 10 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 57% of the total [1] - The total revenue of the top 30 enterprises reached 392.895 billion yuan, with the top 20 enterprises' total revenue increasing to 333.135 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 24% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Among the top 30 enterprises, 11 recycling copper companies generated a combined revenue of 157.609 billion yuan, accounting for 40% of the total [1] - Six recycling aluminum companies reported a total revenue of 60.596 billion yuan, making up 15% of the total [1] - Four recycling lead companies achieved a combined revenue of 36.219 billion yuan, representing 10% of the total [1] - Nine multi-metal recycling enterprises (with two or more varieties) generated a total revenue of 138.471 billion yuan, accounting for 35% of the total [1]

Core Insights - The global recycled non-ferrous metal recovery market is projected to exceed 2.2 trillion RMB by 2030, with China expected to account for over 40% of this market [1] - The domestic recycled metal industry is experiencing strong growth, with over 100 listed companies involved in recycled non-ferrous metals and more than 20 companies from China's top 500 private enterprises participating [1] - The top 30 companies in the recycled non-ferrous metal sector reported a total revenue exceeding 390 billion RMB, indicating a significant enhancement in industry development quality [1] Industry Performance - From January to July 2025, China's major recycled non-ferrous metal production reached approximately 11.5 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.55% [1] - The domestic recycling volume of major waste non-ferrous metals (in metal weight) was about 9.35 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [1] - The total production of major recycled non-ferrous metals is expected to surpass 20 million tons for the entire year [1]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The Chinese government has introduced multiple policies to support the development of the recycled metals industry, predicting that the proportion of metal raw materials from recycling will continue to rise, potentially becoming dominant in sectors like new energy [1][2] - The concept of "urban mining" refers to recyclable resources embedded in various waste carriers, including steel, non-ferrous metals, precious metals, plastics, and rubber, which are increasingly recognized for their resource security and low-carbon properties [2][3] Group 2: Policy Support - In June, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment and the General Administration of Customs announced that from August 1, compliant recycled black powder for lithium-ion batteries would no longer be classified as solid waste and could be freely imported [3] - The "reverse invoicing" policy allows qualified recycling enterprises to issue invoices to individuals selling scrap products, addressing long-standing issues related to the lack of documentation in the recycling sector [3] Group 3: Company Performance - Leading companies in the recycled metals sector, such as GEM Co., Ltd., are focusing on key metal recovery, with projected recoveries of 20,000 tons of nickel, 10,000 tons of cobalt, and 6,500 tons of tungsten in 2024 [2][4] - GEM Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 17.561 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, with key metal resource recycling contributing 6.467 billion yuan, accounting for 41.76% of total revenue [4] Group 4: Supply Chain and Raw Material Sourcing - Stable raw material supply is crucial for the development of recycled metal enterprises, with companies like Yiqiu Metal Resource Recycling focusing on building a global aluminum procurement network [5] - Camel Group Co., Ltd. has established a nationwide network for the recycling of waste lead-acid batteries, ensuring a stable supply of lead for battery manufacturing [6] Group 5: Industry Challenges and Recommendations - The recycling market faces challenges from informal operations that undercut larger, compliant enterprises, prompting calls for stricter regulation and the establishment of a "white list" of qualified companies [7] - Companies advocate for enhanced international cooperation to expand resource acquisition, suggesting that the government refine import standards for high-value, low-pollution metal waste [8]