Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Southeast Asia International Forum on Recycled Metals was held in Bangkok, focusing on the theme "Gathering Green Metals to Forge a New Chapter for ASEAN" and aimed at discussing industry policies, market dynamics, and investment strategies in the recycled metals sector [2][3]. Group 1: Forum Overview - The forum was organized by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and attracted 650 representatives from 26 countries, with 29 companies from 6 countries participating in exhibitions [1]. - Various activities were conducted, including industry matchmaking sessions and thematic forums, to facilitate discussions on recycled metals [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Insights - Under the Belt and Road Initiative, Chinese recycled nonferrous metal companies are actively expanding into Southeast Asia, particularly Thailand, contributing to local employment and technological skill development [3]. - Thailand has become China's largest trading partner, with significant investments in advanced manufacturing, new energy, and information communication sectors [3]. Group 3: Policy and Cooperation - The forum provided a platform for discussing public policy guidance, circular economy policies, and international cooperation among Thailand, ASEAN member states, and China [3]. - Key figures from the Thai government emphasized the importance of metal recycling for new material production and reducing the consumption of natural resources [3]. Group 4: Future Directions - The forum highlighted the growing interest of Chinese enterprises in investing in regions like Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea, Hungary, Mexico, Morocco, and Brazil, with Thailand being the largest importer of scrap aluminum in Southeast Asia at 790,000 tons [3][5]. - Proposals were made to deepen global cooperation, enhance innovation collaboration, and improve international standards recognition in the recycled metals industry [5].

Group 1: Hydrogen Energy Initiatives - The National Energy Administration has launched pilot projects for hydrogen energy, aiming to innovate management models and explore diversified development paths within three years [1] - The pilot projects are expected to provide replicable experiences to support the entire hydrogen energy chain, including production, storage, transportation, and utilization [1] Group 2: Methane Emission Control - China's coal mine methane extraction is projected to reach 13.5 billion cubic meters in 2024, with a utilization rate of 44.4%, exceeding 6 billion cubic meters [2] - The establishment of over 20 low-concentration gas and wind drainage gas oxidation utilization projects demonstrates significant progress in methane emission control [2] Group 3: Recycling and Circular Economy - The launch of aluminum alloy futures and options on June 10 marks the introduction of China's first recycled commodity futures, enhancing the pricing system for recycled metals [3] - This financial tool is expected to promote resource recycling and support the low-carbon transition of the aluminum industry [3] Group 4: ESG Support for SMEs - The "ESG One" platform in Hong Kong has attracted over 1,200 enterprises within six months, with 95% being small and medium-sized enterprises [4] - The platform integrates assessment tools, technical support, and training resources to provide comprehensive sustainable development solutions [4] Group 5: Green Methanol Production - Shanghai Electric's green methanol integrated demonstration project is set to produce its first batch of green methanol in July, marking a significant step in commercializing green hydrogen-derived fuels [5][6] - This project aims to provide a viable pathway for the low-carbon transition in the shipping industry [6] Group 6: Climate Change Adaptation - South Africa has launched its first coastal climate change adaptation plan to address threats such as rising sea levels and extreme weather [7] - This initiative reflects proactive measures by developing countries to tackle climate crises, offering a practical example of balancing pollution reduction and adaptation [7]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of casting aluminum alloy futures and options is expected to promote the green and low-carbon development of China's aluminum industry, while the price trends are influenced by multiple factors [1] Industry Overview - Casting aluminum alloy futures and options are the first recycled metal futures products in China, aimed at enhancing the recycling market and standards for waste aluminum [1] - The futures contract's benchmark price is considered neutral to low, with medium to long-term prices expected to trend downward due to overcapacity and seasonal factors [1] Price Forecast - The reasonable price range for AD2511 is projected to be between 18,000 and 19,700 yuan/ton, with industry clients advised to monitor selling hedging opportunities above 19,800 yuan/ton [1] Raw Material Supply - Waste aluminum is the primary raw material, with current supply tight and prices firm; the price difference between refined and waste aluminum has exceeded 3,000 yuan/ton, indicating supply constraints [1] - In 2024, new waste aluminum supply is expected to reach 3.5 million tons, accounting for 33% of domestic waste aluminum, while imports are projected at nearly 1.8 million tons, making up 14.6% [1] - High waste aluminum prices are squeezing profits for recycled aluminum manufacturers, with 42.2% of waste aluminum stored in building profiles and 22.2% in industrial profiles, indicating significant recovery potential [1] Capacity and Competition - By 2025, new casting aluminum alloy capacity is expected to increase by 1.25 million tons, with approximately 560,000 tons added in the first quarter [1] - The distribution of the recycled alloy industry is not highly concentrated, with many companies located in Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Zhejiang, leading to a fragmented competitive landscape [1] Demand Drivers - The core growth point for aluminum alloy demand is the electric vehicle sector, with the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicting a 24% growth in domestic electric vehicle production by 2025, which may drive demand for recycled aluminum alloys in automotive applications [1] - The traditional off-season for automobiles and non-ferrous metals occurs from June to August, leading to a decline in demand [1] - Aluminum alloys are also used in construction and decoration, with recycled aluminum currently accounting for about 20% of building aluminum, but this proportion is expected to increase with the rise of green building materials [1] Market Dynamics - Currently, ADC12 aluminum alloy is experiencing a high-cost, weak-demand situation, and the deepening off-season may create negative feedback in supply and demand [1] - The price of waste aluminum is expected to support the overall price of aluminum alloys, but the recycled aluminum alloy industry is anticipated to face overcapacity and weak price fluctuations [1] - The introduction of casting aluminum futures may lead to a backwardation structure, presenting opportunities for cross-period positive spreads [1]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the first recycled metal product, casting aluminum alloy futures and options, marks a significant milestone for China's recycled metal industry and reflects the latest achievements in the comprehensive coverage of non-ferrous metal futures products driven by the integration of production and finance [2][3]. Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metal industry has maintained a positive development trend since the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a global production share exceeding 60% [2]. - From January to April this year, the production of ten non-ferrous metals reached 26.6 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [2]. - The added value of large-scale non-ferrous metal industries grew by 7.4% year-on-year, while fixed asset investment increased by 20.7%, surpassing the national industrial investment growth rate by 9 percentage points [2]. - Revenue for large-scale non-ferrous metal industrial enterprises reached 3.09 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 18.0%, with total profits amounting to 128.17 billion yuan, reflecting a 30.3% increase [2]. Recycled Non-Ferrous Metals - Recycled non-ferrous metals are crucial for ensuring resource security and promoting green and low-carbon transitions, with projected production of recycled copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc reaching 19.15 million tons in 2024, accounting for 24% of total non-ferrous metal production [3]. - The production of recycled aluminum has surpassed 10 million tons, contributing to a carbon reduction of 170 million tons, highlighting its significance in green and low-carbon circular development [3]. Futures Market Development - The listing of casting aluminum alloy futures and options is expected to enhance China's aluminum industry's international influence and support the establishment of a comprehensive risk management system for the industry [3]. - The association encourages enterprises to actively participate in futures trading and utilize futures tools for effective risk management [3]. - Ongoing collaboration between the association and the exchange in areas such as product innovation, standard setting, industry training, market services, and green supply chain development has been fruitful [3].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures and options on the Shanghai Futures Exchange marks the first futures product for recycled metals in China, filling a gap in the domestic recycled metal derivatives market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Development - The trading of casting aluminum alloy futures was active on its first day, driven by the robust development of the spot market and increasing demand for price risk management [1]. - In 2024, China's production of casting aluminum alloy is expected to exceed 10 million tons, reflecting the industry's growth and the rising need for risk management tools [1][4]. Group 2: Pricing and Influence - The introduction of aluminum alloy futures is anticipated to enhance China's pricing power in the global market, as it will work in conjunction with existing aluminum and alumina futures [2][3]. - The listing is seen as a significant step towards improving the international influence of China's aluminum industry and establishing a comprehensive risk management system [2][4]. Group 3: Risk Management Tools - The new futures and options will provide more precise risk management tools for enterprises, allowing them to implement composite hedging strategies that include both electrolytic and recycled aluminum [3][6]. - Companies can now better manage price fluctuations and operational risks, with the potential to adjust production based on market conditions [3][6]. Group 4: Circular Economy and Resource Utilization - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures is expected to promote the development of the circular economy, as it encourages resource recycling and utilization [4][5]. - The recycled non-ferrous metal industry is crucial for ensuring resource security and facilitating a green, low-carbon transition, with recycled aluminum production already surpassing 10 million tons [4][5]. Group 5: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The growth of the new energy industry is creating a "metal hunger," with significant demand for metals like copper and aluminum, while the supply from primary mining is lagging [5]. - The recycling rate of waste metals remains low, and the industry faces challenges such as low profitability and inadequate systems, which the new futures market could help address [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future trends of the recycled aluminum alloy industry, emphasizing the importance of aluminum alloys in the automotive sector and the challenges posed by supply constraints and production inefficiencies [2][3][4][5][10]. Industry Chain Structure - The aluminum industry chain consists of three segments: upstream (waste aluminum, A00 aluminum ingots, silicon, waste copper), midstream (recycled casting aluminum alloy production, mainly by small and medium-sized private enterprises), and downstream (70% used in automotive and motorcycle applications) [2][5]. Current Industry Status and Trends - In 2024, the recycled aluminum production is projected to reach 10.55 million tons, with casting aluminum alloys accounting for 59% (6.2 million tons) and a low capacity utilization rate of only 34%-40% [3][21]. - The industry is characterized by high capacity but low operational rates, with a tight supply of waste aluminum due to an incomplete recycling system [5][21]. New Capacity Additions - New capacity for casting aluminum alloys is expected to increase by 1.32 million tons in 2024 and 1.25 million tons in 2025, with a faster growth rate for recycled wrought aluminum [4][22]. Cost Analysis - The cost structure for ADC12 includes waste aluminum, silicon, copper, and natural gas, with waste aluminum being the largest cost component [6][66]. - The price difference between waste aluminum and primary aluminum is a critical factor, with a threshold of 1,500 RMB indicating when primary aluminum becomes more cost-effective [6][70]. Downstream Demand Trends - The penetration of new energy vehicles is expected to increase aluminum usage, but the growth rate of wrought aluminum alloys is anticipated to be faster [8][56]. Investment Logic - Short-term focus on price arbitrage opportunities between waste aluminum and ADC12, while long-term demand is supported by automotive lightweighting and electrification trends, though risks from recycled wrought aluminum substitutes should be monitored [10][56]. Waste Aluminum Industry - Domestic waste aluminum accounts for 85% of the supply, with 57% from old materials and 28% from new materials, indicating a strong reliance on domestic sources [39][40]. - The automotive sector is the largest source of waste aluminum, contributing 41% to the total supply [42]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Production Process - The production process involves pre-treatment, melting, and casting, with a focus on optimizing the physical properties of aluminum alloy ingots [44][46]. Downstream Demand for Casting Aluminum Alloys - The automotive and motorcycle industries account for approximately 70% of the downstream consumption of casting aluminum alloys, with significant potential for growth in aluminum usage due to lightweighting and electrification [54][56].