2月26日（周四），除期锡上涨外，伦敦金属交易所（LME）其他基本金属普遍下跌，其中期铜从此前 所及的两周高点回落，因为库存增加以及美元持坚冲抵了需求回暖相关预期所带来的积极情绪。 伦敦时间2月26日17:00(北京时间2月27日01:00)，LME三个月期铜下跌18美元，或0.14%，收报每吨 13,304.50美元。春节后铜价持续上涨，前一交易日曾触及13,350美元高点。 SP Angel分析师John Meyer表示："通常中国交易商在春节后重返市场较慢，但今年他们从第一天就开始 交易了。" 衡量中国铜进口兴趣的指标——洋山铜溢价已从节前的每吨33美元攀升至50美元。 美元指数上升，美元走强使以美元计价的金属对使用其他货币的投资者而言更加昂贵。 高库存也对价格构成压力。LME周四公布的库存数据显示，在另有4,000吨金属流入美国和韩国仓库 后，LME铜库存达到253,600吨，当前库存总量已达到2025年3月以来的最高水平，此前推动大量铜流向 美国交易所的COMEX溢价已基本消散。 此外，芝商所数据显示，2月25日COMEX铜库存降至601,037短吨，但仍处在历史最高水平。 Meyer表示："我认为 ...

2月16日（周一），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜走弱，因美元走强，且焦点转向库存增加，以及假期 清淡交易期间疲软的需求前景。 伦敦时间2月16日17:00(北京时间2月17日01:00)，LME三个月期铜下跌30.5美元，或0.24%，收报每吨 12,850.5美元。 | | 2月16日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张默帽 | | 三个月期铜 | 12,850.50 - | -30.50 -0.24% | | 三个月期铝 | 3.052.50 | -25.00 -0.81% | | 三个月期锌 | 3,290.00 ↓ | -47.50 -1.42% | | 三个月期铅 | 1,958.00 | -2.00 -0.10% | | 三个月期镇 | 17.115.00 ↑ +131.00 ↑ +0.77% | | | 三个月期锡 | 45,681.00 -1,021.00 ↓ -2.19% | | **周一适逢中美假期，市况清淡** 贸易商表示，本周正值中国春节假期，且周一为美国公众假期，这意味着市场交易量偏低；而伦敦金属 交 ...

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper price has declined for the second consecutive trading day, influenced by rising inventories and a strengthening US dollar [1]. Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - On February 5, three-month copper closed at $12,903.00 per ton, down $141.50 or 1.08% [1][2]. - Copper prices dropped as much as 2% earlier in the day to $12,783 due to a general decline in industrial and precious metals [3]. - Copper inventories have been rising, with LME stocks reaching 180,575 tons, the highest level since May 2025 [5]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The strengthening US dollar has made metals priced in dollars more expensive for investors holding other currencies [4]. - The European Central Bank maintained interest rates at 2%, reinforcing market expectations for stable policies [3]. - Analyst John Meyer noted that there is no physical shortage in the copper market, as US inventories are ample [6]. Group 3: Other Base Metals Performance - Other base metals also experienced declines, with three-month aluminum down 1.38% to $3,027 per ton, zinc down 0.21% to $3,302 per ton, lead down 0.56% to $1,955.50 per ton, and nickel down 1.77% to $17,071 per ton [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices fell to a near two-week low due to increased exchange inventories and the withdrawal of tariff threats by President Trump regarding Greenland [1][3]. Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - On January 22, LME three-month copper dropped by $54.5, or 0.43%, closing at $12,755.5 per ton, with an intraday low of $12,621, the lowest since January 9 [1]. - LME copper inventories rose to 168,250 tons, the highest since May 2025, with 8,725 tons flowing into U.S. warehouses this month [3]. - The current LME copper spot price is at a discount of $78 per ton compared to the three-month futures, indicating limited short-term demand for the metal [3]. Group 2: Other Base Metals Performance - Three-month zinc increased by $35.5, or 1.12%, closing at $3,211.0 per ton, influenced by Nexa Resources' temporary suspension of operations at its Atacocha San Gerardo mine in Peru [4]. - Three-month aluminum rose by $17.5, or 0.56%, closing at $3,132.5 per ton [5]. - Three-month lead decreased by $2, or 0.1%, closing at $2,020.0 per ton [6]. - Three-month nickel remained unchanged at $17,996.0 per ton [7]. - Three-month tin increased by $460, or 0.89%, closing at $51,877.0 per ton [8]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Influences - Market anxiety has diminished, leading to a broad price decline as previous driving factors have dissipated, according to analyst Tom Price [3]. - The narrowing of arbitrage opportunities between LME and Comex has led to a return of metals to LME, contributing to the increase in inventories [4]. - A weaker dollar has supported most LME metals, making dollar-denominated metals more attractive to holders of other currencies [4].

Group 1: Protein Meal - CBOT soybeans hit a seven-week low amid widespread selling in the agricultural market due to concerns over U.S. export pace and expectations of a bumper crop in Brazil [2][9] - The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Association reported that by October 2025, Brazilian factories will process 4.39 million tons of soybeans, with soybean stocks at 11.26 million tons [2][9] - Domestic protein meal continues to operate weakly, with ample supply and cautious procurement in the feed raw materials market due to ongoing losses in livestock [2][9] Group 2: Oils - BMD palm oil fell to a five-month low due to concerns over rising inventories and weak competing oils, with overnight declines in U.S. soybean oil and canola [3][10] - High-frequency data indicated that Malaysian palm oil exports from December 1-15 decreased by 15.9%-16.4% compared to the previous period, with production down by less than 3% [3][10] - Domestic oil prices are weak, with a high inventory level and subdued demand, leading to expectations of declining costs [3][10] Group 3: Live Pigs - The main live pig futures contract continued to adjust, closing with a small gain, indicating a bottoming trend in pig prices [4][11] - Mainstream transaction prices for live pigs in various regions showed slight declines, with prices in Heilongjiang and Jilin at 10.97 CNY/kg, and in Inner Mongolia at 10.94 CNY/kg [4][11] - Overall, the trend for pig prices is downward, with expectations of weak price movements in the coming week due to supply pressures [4][11][5] Group 4: Eggs - Egg futures experienced a downward trend, with the 2601 contract down by 0.26% and the 2603 contract down by 1.12% [6][13] - The national average egg price remained stable at 3.03 CNY/jin, with regional prices also holding steady [6][13] - There is an expectation of a gradual decline in supply due to a decrease in new laying hens, while costs remain weak [6][13] Group 5: Corn - The main corn futures contract continued to adjust, with a slight decrease in prices and limited trading activity in the northeastern production area [7][14] - Supply in the North China region remains tight, with farmers showing limited willingness to sell [7][14] - The market is in a relatively balanced state, with deep processing enterprises purchasing according to demand [7][14]

Core View - Bullish factors: Supply shortage due to reduced production in northern mines supports zinc prices, and increased downstream demand is driven by smelters' active procurement of domestic ore and lower processing fees [3] - Bearish factors: Hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve suppress rate - cut expectations, leading to a collective correction in metals, and an increase of about 2000 tons in LME zinc inventory last week restricts the upside potential of prices [3] - Trading advice: Short - term focus on the support of tight mine supply for zinc prices, no future strategy provided [3] Processing and Terminal Demand - Data presented on galvanized coil market sentiment index, inventory, production, net exports, die - cast zinc alloy net imports, color - coated sheet net exports, zinc oxide net exports, real estate development investment and progress, sales and unsold area, land transaction area, and commercial housing transaction volume [4][7][10][12][14] Supply and Supply - side Profits - Data on zinc concentrate monthly import volume, TC, zinc ingot monthly production, production profit and processing fees, raw material inventory days, and various zinc inventories including LME, SHFE, and exchange inventories are provided [18][20][21][23][24] Futures and Spot Market Review - Information on the trends of domestic and foreign zinc prices, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures, LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index, LME zinc premium, and zinc ingot basis in different regions is presented [26][27][28][30][35]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic copper futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract reported at 85,730.00 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.75% [1] Macroeconomic Factors - Recent U.S. employment data shows conflicting signals, with new jobs added at 119,000, significantly exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to a four-year high of 4.4%. This presents challenges for the Federal Reserve's decision-making ahead of the December meeting [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply-side issues include a shortage of copper concentrate (processing fee at -40 USD/ton) and delays in the resumption of mining operations in Indonesia. Demand from emerging sectors like electric vehicles and AI is supporting the market, countering weak demand from real estate and home appliances [1] - Market participants are cautious in their purchasing despite suppliers holding prices firm [1] Inventory Levels - Domestic refined copper inventory is not decreasing as expected, with social inventory reported at 194,500 tons as of November 20, showing a slight increase of 0.07 tons and remaining at a high level not seen in three years [1] Overall Market Outlook - The probability of a rate cut in December remains low, with weak fundamentals and increasing inventory levels contributing to a bearish outlook for copper prices. Attention will be on the gradual release of U.S. economic data [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic non-ferrous metal market is experiencing a downturn, particularly in the casting aluminum alloy futures, which have seen a slight decline of 0.25% to 20,320 yuan/ton as of September 29 [1] Supply - According to Ruida Futures, the tightening of raw material supply is providing support for the spot price of cast aluminum while simultaneously limiting the production capacity of cast aluminum, leading to a slowdown in the growth rate of domestic cast aluminum supply [1] Demand - New Lake Futures indicates that while the automotive market is recovering, the benefits for recycled casting aluminum alloys are limited, particularly as the recovery in overall consumption remains weak [1] Inventory - As of September 29, the total daily social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi reached 50,050 tons, an increase of 104 tons from the previous trading day and up 382 tons from the previous week (September 22) [1] Market Outlook - Yide Futures suggests that supply disruptions and tight scrap aluminum supply, along with the withdrawal of tax rebates, are influencing the market. Although downstream die-casting operations are gradually recovering, high-price procurement remains cautious. The registration of warehouse receipts began on September 22, indicating a potential further increase in social inventory [1] - The investment strategy recommends reducing positions ahead of the holiday to mitigate overseas risks, with a suggestion to buy on dips for aluminum alloy [1]

Market Overview - Recent market volatility has left many investors confused, often leading to losses due to frequent trading and lack of a solid trading plan [1] - New investors are particularly prone to chasing trends, resulting in significant losses [1] Gold Market Analysis - As of Wednesday evening, spot gold was trading around 3741.80, experiencing fluctuations influenced by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious remarks on potential interest rate cuts [2] - Gold prices initially dropped by $15 to the $3750 mark but rebounded by nearly $30, reaching a high of $3779, supported by a rise in Hong Kong and A-share markets [2] - The dollar index's increase of 0.5% has narrowed gold's gains, yet gold maintains a bullish trend for the fourth consecutive trading day [2] - Upcoming U.S. economic data, including GDP and PCE price index, is expected to influence both the dollar and gold prices [2] Technical Analysis of Gold - The current strategy suggests maintaining a bullish outlook without chasing prices, focusing on buying on dips rather than predicting peaks [3] - Following a significant rise to $3792, gold experienced a correction to $3752, indicating a potential high-level consolidation rather than a trend reversal [3] - Strong support is identified at $3715, and as long as this level holds, a bullish trend is likely to continue [3] Short-term Gold Trading Strategy - The four-hour chart indicates a potential market top, with a possibility of further declines if prices drop on Wednesday [5] - Suggested trading strategy includes buying on dips around support levels of $3720 and $3715, while monitoring resistance at $3800 [5] Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil futures rose by $0.27 to $67.90 per barrel, while WTI futures increased by $0.28 to $63.69, driven primarily by supply constraints rather than demand improvements [6] - Key factors contributing to supply tightness include the ongoing export issues from Iraq's Kurdish region and declining U.S. inventories [6] - Market volatility is expected to increase, particularly with upcoming inventory data that could impact oil prices [6] Technical Analysis of Oil - The daily chart shows a weak consolidation pattern, with oil prices fluctuating around key moving averages [7] - Short-term trends indicate a potential upward movement, supported by a bullish MACD indicator [7] - Recommended trading strategy includes buying on dips while keeping an eye on resistance levels between $66.0 and $67.0 and support levels around $63.0 to $62.0 [7]

Group 1: Rebar Market - The main rebar contract has shown a downward trend, closing at 3022 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY, a decrease of 1.63% [1] - Weekly rebar production was 2.2353 million tons, a decrease of 98,500 tons from the previous week, down 4.22% [1] - Demand has weakened significantly, with rebar demand at 2.139 million tons, down 778,100 tons from the previous week, a decline of 26.67% [1] - Social inventory of rebar is approximately 6.5363 million tons, an increase of 96,300 tons from the previous week, indicating slower destocking than expected [1] Group 2: Hot Rolled Coil Market - The main hot rolled coil contract opened lower and fluctuated downwards, closing at 3157 CNY/ton, down 43 CNY, a decrease of 1.34% [1] - Domestic hot rolled coil production remained high at 3.2038 million tons, leading to ample supply [1] - Social inventory of hot rolled coil increased to 2.8032 million tons, up 39,900 tons from the previous week, indicating a slowdown in destocking [1] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Market - Lithium carbonate prices hit a new low, closing at 63489.03 CNY/ton, down 1.84% [1] - Upstream lithium salt producers have reduced their willingness to sell, but high inventory levels among traders are keeping prices under pressure [1] - The lithium market is currently oversupplied with weak demand, leading to a continued decline in lithium prices [1]