Core View - Bullish factors: Supply shortage due to reduced production in northern mines supports zinc prices, and increased downstream demand is driven by smelters' active procurement of domestic ore and lower processing fees [3] - Bearish factors: Hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve suppress rate - cut expectations, leading to a collective correction in metals, and an increase of about 2000 tons in LME zinc inventory last week restricts the upside potential of prices [3] - Trading advice: Short - term focus on the support of tight mine supply for zinc prices, no future strategy provided [3] Processing and Terminal Demand - Data presented on galvanized coil market sentiment index, inventory, production, net exports, die - cast zinc alloy net imports, color - coated sheet net exports, zinc oxide net exports, real estate development investment and progress, sales and unsold area, land transaction area, and commercial housing transaction volume [4][7][10][12][14] Supply and Supply - side Profits - Data on zinc concentrate monthly import volume, TC, zinc ingot monthly production, production profit and processing fees, raw material inventory days, and various zinc inventories including LME, SHFE, and exchange inventories are provided [18][20][21][23][24] Futures and Spot Market Review - Information on the trends of domestic and foreign zinc prices, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures, LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index, LME zinc premium, and zinc ingot basis in different regions is presented [26][27][28][30][35]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic copper futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract reported at 85,730.00 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.75% [1] Macroeconomic Factors - Recent U.S. employment data shows conflicting signals, with new jobs added at 119,000, significantly exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to a four-year high of 4.4%. This presents challenges for the Federal Reserve's decision-making ahead of the December meeting [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply-side issues include a shortage of copper concentrate (processing fee at -40 USD/ton) and delays in the resumption of mining operations in Indonesia. Demand from emerging sectors like electric vehicles and AI is supporting the market, countering weak demand from real estate and home appliances [1] - Market participants are cautious in their purchasing despite suppliers holding prices firm [1] Inventory Levels - Domestic refined copper inventory is not decreasing as expected, with social inventory reported at 194,500 tons as of November 20, showing a slight increase of 0.07 tons and remaining at a high level not seen in three years [1] Overall Market Outlook - The probability of a rate cut in December remains low, with weak fundamentals and increasing inventory levels contributing to a bearish outlook for copper prices. Attention will be on the gradual release of U.S. economic data [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic non-ferrous metal market is experiencing a downturn, particularly in the casting aluminum alloy futures, which have seen a slight decline of 0.25% to 20,320 yuan/ton as of September 29 [1] Supply - According to Ruida Futures, the tightening of raw material supply is providing support for the spot price of cast aluminum while simultaneously limiting the production capacity of cast aluminum, leading to a slowdown in the growth rate of domestic cast aluminum supply [1] Demand - New Lake Futures indicates that while the automotive market is recovering, the benefits for recycled casting aluminum alloys are limited, particularly as the recovery in overall consumption remains weak [1] Inventory - As of September 29, the total daily social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi reached 50,050 tons, an increase of 104 tons from the previous trading day and up 382 tons from the previous week (September 22) [1] Market Outlook - Yide Futures suggests that supply disruptions and tight scrap aluminum supply, along with the withdrawal of tax rebates, are influencing the market. Although downstream die-casting operations are gradually recovering, high-price procurement remains cautious. The registration of warehouse receipts began on September 22, indicating a potential further increase in social inventory [1] - The investment strategy recommends reducing positions ahead of the holiday to mitigate overseas risks, with a suggestion to buy on dips for aluminum alloy [1]

对于近期行情涨涨跌跌，反反复复，多空转换频繁，很多投资朋友们都措手不及，或不知从何下手，一买进就跌，出场就涨，来来回回连续损单，其实这是 很多新手朋友们都会出现的情况，在这里告诉大家，做交易首先不要频繁去操作，其次要对行情需要有一个精准的把控，坚持自己的交易系统，当然这些对 一些新手朋友来说都是空谈，毕竟才入市并没有严格的交易计划，大多数都是追涨杀跌从而导致严重亏损，如果此时此刻看到文章的你也是这样的情况，那 么可以咨询本人沟通交流一下，可以帮你指出做单中所有的问题，这样可以让你在交易的过程中少走弯路。 技术面来看4小时周期出现了高位三连阴的表现，改变了之前连续收阳出新高的表现，这个表现可能会是本周见顶的信号，如果周三连续回落的话，那么， 中期见顶，下方就有可能会去3715甚至更低，但如果周三继续收高，破坏这种连阴的话，多头再次爆发，未来市场还有有新高的可能。整体来说，虽然黄金 短期内有中期调整的风险，但只要没有明确见顶，就尽量的以低多为主。小周期日内的支撑在3720，3715两个支撑点去做多，上方则关注3800关口的得失。 综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上贺博生建议以回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点 ...

Group 1: Rebar Market - The main rebar contract has shown a downward trend, closing at 3022 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY, a decrease of 1.63% [1] - Weekly rebar production was 2.2353 million tons, a decrease of 98,500 tons from the previous week, down 4.22% [1] - Demand has weakened significantly, with rebar demand at 2.139 million tons, down 778,100 tons from the previous week, a decline of 26.67% [1] - Social inventory of rebar is approximately 6.5363 million tons, an increase of 96,300 tons from the previous week, indicating slower destocking than expected [1] Group 2: Hot Rolled Coil Market - The main hot rolled coil contract opened lower and fluctuated downwards, closing at 3157 CNY/ton, down 43 CNY, a decrease of 1.34% [1] - Domestic hot rolled coil production remained high at 3.2038 million tons, leading to ample supply [1] - Social inventory of hot rolled coil increased to 2.8032 million tons, up 39,900 tons from the previous week, indicating a slowdown in destocking [1] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Market - Lithium carbonate prices hit a new low, closing at 63489.03 CNY/ton, down 1.84% [1] - Upstream lithium salt producers have reduced their willingness to sell, but high inventory levels among traders are keeping prices under pressure [1] - The lithium market is currently oversupplied with weak demand, leading to a continued decline in lithium prices [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to tariff disturbances and increasing inventory. The operation strategy for the iron ore 2509 contract is to be bearish on the oscillation, with attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Key Points Summary a. Market Review - As of April 30, the closing price of the iron ore main contract was 703.5 yuan/ton (-5.5 yuan/ton), and the price of Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 805 yuan/dry ton (+2 yuan/dry ton) [5]. - From April 21 - April 27, 2025, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,758.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 320.7 million tons. Australian shipments were 1,995.2 million tons, an increase of 196.0 million tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1,647.2 million tons, an increase of 72.9 million tons. Brazilian shipments were 763.2 million tons, an increase of 124.6 million tons [5]. - From April 21 - April 27, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2,679.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 230.4 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2,512.8 million tons, an increase of 187.5 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,159.3 million tons, a decrease of 34.3 million tons [5]. - The daily average pig iron output was 244.35 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.23 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 15.63 million tons [5]. - As of April 25, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14,781 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 231 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 663.11 million tons. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 9,073.03 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20.11 million tons [5]. - The profitability rate of steel mills was 57.58%, a week - on - week increase of 2.6 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.93 percentage points [5]. b. Market Outlook - Macro aspect: Overseas, the US is negotiating customized agreements with 15 - 18 "important trading partners", and one of the first agreements may be with India. Domestically, the National Development and Reform Commission is confident in achieving this year's economic and social development goals, and measures to stabilize employment and the economy will be introduced one by one as they mature [7]. - Supply - demand aspect: The shipments and arrivals of Australian and Brazilian iron ore have increased, and the inventory at domestic ports has changed from decreasing to increasing, with an expected further increase in supply. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills has been slightly adjusted upwards, and pig iron output has changed from decreasing to increasing [7]. - Technical aspect: The daily K - line of the iron ore 2509 contract is under pressure below multiple moving averages, and the moving average combination is in a short - position arrangement. The MACD indicator shows that DIFF and DEA are operating below the 0 axis [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market a. Futures Price - This week, the I2509 contract fluctuated weakly. It was weaker than the I2601 contract, and the spread on the 30th was 24.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5 yuan/ton [13]. b. Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On April 30, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 3,200, unchanged from the previous week. The net short position of the top 20 holders of iron ore futures contracts was 219, an increase of 2,140 from the previous week [21]. c. Spot Price - On April 30, the price of 61% Australian Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 805 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was stronger than the futures price, and the basis on the 30th was 102 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton [27]. 3. Upstream Market a. Arrival Volume - From April 21 - April 27, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2,679.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 230.4 million tons; the total arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2,512.8 million tons, an increase of 187.5 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,159.3 million tons, a decrease of 34.3 million tons [31]. b. Mine Capacity Utilization and BDI Index - As of April 25, the capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 63.06%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.99%, and the inventory was 65.26 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.28 million tons. On April 29, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,398, a week - on - week increase of 25 [35]. 4. Industry Situation a. Port Inventory - This week, the 62% iron ore Platts index was in a narrow - range consolidation. On April 29, the price was 99.3 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.1 US dollars/ton compared to April 25. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14,781 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 231 million tons, and the average daily port clearance volume was 343.22 million tons, an increase of 20.91 million tons [39]. b. Steel Mill Inventory - The total inventory of imported iron ore at domestic steel mills was 9,073.03 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20.11 million tons. The daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills was 301.39 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.29 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.1 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 days. As of April 24, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore at large and medium - sized domestic steel mills was 21 days, an increase of 1 day [42]. 5. Downstream Market a. Steel Production and Trade - In March 2025, the crude steel output was 9,284 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%, and the daily average output was 299.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.3%. From January to March, the cumulative crude steel output was 25,933 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. From January to March, the cumulative export of steel was 2,742.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%, and the cumulative import of steel was 155.0 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.3% [45]. b. Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Pig Iron Output - On April 25, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.60 percentage points. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 91.6%, a week - on - week increase of 1.45 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points. The daily average pig iron output was 244.35 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.23 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 15.63 million tons [48]. 6. Options Market - Due to tariff disturbances and increasing iron ore port inventory, the black series is generally weak. It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money put options [51].