热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 蛋白粕： 周二，CBOT大豆触及七周低点，农产品市场普遍遭遇抛售。市场在持续担忧美国出口步伐和巴西丰产 预期的情况下，选择继续抛售。南美大豆丰产预期强，性价比更高，一二月南美大豆上市后，美豆出口 前景堪忧。巴西植物油协会公布的数据显示，2025年10月，巴西工厂加工大豆439万吨，大豆库存为 1126万吨。国内方面，蛋白粕再度弱势运行。市场缺乏反弹力量，供应充足，远期大豆采购顺利，养殖 亏损，饲料原料采购谨慎等国内局面不变。大豆压榨处于高位，油厂豆类库存高。策略上，震荡偏弱思 路。 油脂： 周二，BMD棕榈油跌至五个月低点，因库存增加忧虑及竞争油脂疲软。隔夜美豆油和加菜籽均下跌。 高频数据显示，马棕油12月1-15日出口环比下滑15.9%-16.4%，出口降幅较1-10日进一步扩大。同期产 量环比减少不到3%，这意味着马棕油12月去库速度缓慢。国内方面，油脂走势偏弱。国际市场偏弱运 行，引发成本下降预期。国内供应宽松，需求平淡，库存处于高位。市场传言有企业开始询价加拿大油 菜籽价格，引发菜籽油价格回落。策略上，卖看涨期权，期货短线参与。 生猪： ...

Core View - Bullish factors: Supply shortage due to reduced production in northern mines supports zinc prices, and increased downstream demand is driven by smelters' active procurement of domestic ore and lower processing fees [3] - Bearish factors: Hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve suppress rate - cut expectations, leading to a collective correction in metals, and an increase of about 2000 tons in LME zinc inventory last week restricts the upside potential of prices [3] - Trading advice: Short - term focus on the support of tight mine supply for zinc prices, no future strategy provided [3] Processing and Terminal Demand - Data presented on galvanized coil market sentiment index, inventory, production, net exports, die - cast zinc alloy net imports, color - coated sheet net exports, zinc oxide net exports, real estate development investment and progress, sales and unsold area, land transaction area, and commercial housing transaction volume [4][7][10][12][14] Supply and Supply - side Profits - Data on zinc concentrate monthly import volume, TC, zinc ingot monthly production, production profit and processing fees, raw material inventory days, and various zinc inventories including LME, SHFE, and exchange inventories are provided [18][20][21][23][24] Futures and Spot Market Review - Information on the trends of domestic and foreign zinc prices, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures, LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index, LME zinc premium, and zinc ingot basis in different regions is presented [26][27][28][30][35]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic copper futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract reported at 85,730.00 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.75% [1] Macroeconomic Factors - Recent U.S. employment data shows conflicting signals, with new jobs added at 119,000, significantly exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to a four-year high of 4.4%. This presents challenges for the Federal Reserve's decision-making ahead of the December meeting [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply-side issues include a shortage of copper concentrate (processing fee at -40 USD/ton) and delays in the resumption of mining operations in Indonesia. Demand from emerging sectors like electric vehicles and AI is supporting the market, countering weak demand from real estate and home appliances [1] - Market participants are cautious in their purchasing despite suppliers holding prices firm [1] Inventory Levels - Domestic refined copper inventory is not decreasing as expected, with social inventory reported at 194,500 tons as of November 20, showing a slight increase of 0.07 tons and remaining at a high level not seen in three years [1] Overall Market Outlook - The probability of a rate cut in December remains low, with weak fundamentals and increasing inventory levels contributing to a bearish outlook for copper prices. Attention will be on the gradual release of U.S. economic data [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic non-ferrous metal market is experiencing a downturn, particularly in the casting aluminum alloy futures, which have seen a slight decline of 0.25% to 20,320 yuan/ton as of September 29 [1] Supply - According to Ruida Futures, the tightening of raw material supply is providing support for the spot price of cast aluminum while simultaneously limiting the production capacity of cast aluminum, leading to a slowdown in the growth rate of domestic cast aluminum supply [1] Demand - New Lake Futures indicates that while the automotive market is recovering, the benefits for recycled casting aluminum alloys are limited, particularly as the recovery in overall consumption remains weak [1] Inventory - As of September 29, the total daily social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi reached 50,050 tons, an increase of 104 tons from the previous trading day and up 382 tons from the previous week (September 22) [1] Market Outlook - Yide Futures suggests that supply disruptions and tight scrap aluminum supply, along with the withdrawal of tax rebates, are influencing the market. Although downstream die-casting operations are gradually recovering, high-price procurement remains cautious. The registration of warehouse receipts began on September 22, indicating a potential further increase in social inventory [1] - The investment strategy recommends reducing positions ahead of the holiday to mitigate overseas risks, with a suggestion to buy on dips for aluminum alloy [1]

Market Overview - Recent market volatility has left many investors confused, often leading to losses due to frequent trading and lack of a solid trading plan [1] - New investors are particularly prone to chasing trends, resulting in significant losses [1] Gold Market Analysis - As of Wednesday evening, spot gold was trading around 3741.80, experiencing fluctuations influenced by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious remarks on potential interest rate cuts [2] - Gold prices initially dropped by $15 to the $3750 mark but rebounded by nearly $30, reaching a high of $3779, supported by a rise in Hong Kong and A-share markets [2] - The dollar index's increase of 0.5% has narrowed gold's gains, yet gold maintains a bullish trend for the fourth consecutive trading day [2] - Upcoming U.S. economic data, including GDP and PCE price index, is expected to influence both the dollar and gold prices [2] Technical Analysis of Gold - The current strategy suggests maintaining a bullish outlook without chasing prices, focusing on buying on dips rather than predicting peaks [3] - Following a significant rise to $3792, gold experienced a correction to $3752, indicating a potential high-level consolidation rather than a trend reversal [3] - Strong support is identified at $3715, and as long as this level holds, a bullish trend is likely to continue [3] Short-term Gold Trading Strategy - The four-hour chart indicates a potential market top, with a possibility of further declines if prices drop on Wednesday [5] - Suggested trading strategy includes buying on dips around support levels of $3720 and $3715, while monitoring resistance at $3800 [5] Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil futures rose by $0.27 to $67.90 per barrel, while WTI futures increased by $0.28 to $63.69, driven primarily by supply constraints rather than demand improvements [6] - Key factors contributing to supply tightness include the ongoing export issues from Iraq's Kurdish region and declining U.S. inventories [6] - Market volatility is expected to increase, particularly with upcoming inventory data that could impact oil prices [6] Technical Analysis of Oil - The daily chart shows a weak consolidation pattern, with oil prices fluctuating around key moving averages [7] - Short-term trends indicate a potential upward movement, supported by a bullish MACD indicator [7] - Recommended trading strategy includes buying on dips while keeping an eye on resistance levels between $66.0 and $67.0 and support levels around $63.0 to $62.0 [7]

Group 1: Rebar Market - The main rebar contract has shown a downward trend, closing at 3022 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY, a decrease of 1.63% [1] - Weekly rebar production was 2.2353 million tons, a decrease of 98,500 tons from the previous week, down 4.22% [1] - Demand has weakened significantly, with rebar demand at 2.139 million tons, down 778,100 tons from the previous week, a decline of 26.67% [1] - Social inventory of rebar is approximately 6.5363 million tons, an increase of 96,300 tons from the previous week, indicating slower destocking than expected [1] Group 2: Hot Rolled Coil Market - The main hot rolled coil contract opened lower and fluctuated downwards, closing at 3157 CNY/ton, down 43 CNY, a decrease of 1.34% [1] - Domestic hot rolled coil production remained high at 3.2038 million tons, leading to ample supply [1] - Social inventory of hot rolled coil increased to 2.8032 million tons, up 39,900 tons from the previous week, indicating a slowdown in destocking [1] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Market - Lithium carbonate prices hit a new low, closing at 63489.03 CNY/ton, down 1.84% [1] - Upstream lithium salt producers have reduced their willingness to sell, but high inventory levels among traders are keeping prices under pressure [1] - The lithium market is currently oversupplied with weak demand, leading to a continued decline in lithium prices [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to tariff disturbances and increasing inventory. The operation strategy for the iron ore 2509 contract is to be bearish on the oscillation, with attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Key Points Summary a. Market Review - As of April 30, the closing price of the iron ore main contract was 703.5 yuan/ton (-5.5 yuan/ton), and the price of Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 805 yuan/dry ton (+2 yuan/dry ton) [5]. - From April 21 - April 27, 2025, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,758.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 320.7 million tons. Australian shipments were 1,995.2 million tons, an increase of 196.0 million tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1,647.2 million tons, an increase of 72.9 million tons. Brazilian shipments were 763.2 million tons, an increase of 124.6 million tons [5]. - From April 21 - April 27, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2,679.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 230.4 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2,512.8 million tons, an increase of 187.5 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,159.3 million tons, a decrease of 34.3 million tons [5]. - The daily average pig iron output was 244.35 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.23 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 15.63 million tons [5]. - As of April 25, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14,781 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 231 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 663.11 million tons. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 9,073.03 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20.11 million tons [5]. - The profitability rate of steel mills was 57.58%, a week - on - week increase of 2.6 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.93 percentage points [5]. b. Market Outlook - Macro aspect: Overseas, the US is negotiating customized agreements with 15 - 18 "important trading partners", and one of the first agreements may be with India. Domestically, the National Development and Reform Commission is confident in achieving this year's economic and social development goals, and measures to stabilize employment and the economy will be introduced one by one as they mature [7]. - Supply - demand aspect: The shipments and arrivals of Australian and Brazilian iron ore have increased, and the inventory at domestic ports has changed from decreasing to increasing, with an expected further increase in supply. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills has been slightly adjusted upwards, and pig iron output has changed from decreasing to increasing [7]. - Technical aspect: The daily K - line of the iron ore 2509 contract is under pressure below multiple moving averages, and the moving average combination is in a short - position arrangement. The MACD indicator shows that DIFF and DEA are operating below the 0 axis [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market a. Futures Price - This week, the I2509 contract fluctuated weakly. It was weaker than the I2601 contract, and the spread on the 30th was 24.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5 yuan/ton [13]. b. Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On April 30, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 3,200, unchanged from the previous week. The net short position of the top 20 holders of iron ore futures contracts was 219, an increase of 2,140 from the previous week [21]. c. Spot Price - On April 30, the price of 61% Australian Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 805 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was stronger than the futures price, and the basis on the 30th was 102 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton [27]. 3. Upstream Market a. Arrival Volume - From April 21 - April 27, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2,679.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 230.4 million tons; the total arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2,512.8 million tons, an increase of 187.5 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,159.3 million tons, a decrease of 34.3 million tons [31]. b. Mine Capacity Utilization and BDI Index - As of April 25, the capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 63.06%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.99%, and the inventory was 65.26 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.28 million tons. On April 29, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,398, a week - on - week increase of 25 [35]. 4. Industry Situation a. Port Inventory - This week, the 62% iron ore Platts index was in a narrow - range consolidation. On April 29, the price was 99.3 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.1 US dollars/ton compared to April 25. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14,781 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 231 million tons, and the average daily port clearance volume was 343.22 million tons, an increase of 20.91 million tons [39]. b. Steel Mill Inventory - The total inventory of imported iron ore at domestic steel mills was 9,073.03 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20.11 million tons. The daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills was 301.39 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.29 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.1 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 days. As of April 24, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore at large and medium - sized domestic steel mills was 21 days, an increase of 1 day [42]. 5. Downstream Market a. Steel Production and Trade - In March 2025, the crude steel output was 9,284 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%, and the daily average output was 299.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.3%. From January to March, the cumulative crude steel output was 25,933 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. From January to March, the cumulative export of steel was 2,742.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%, and the cumulative import of steel was 155.0 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.3% [45]. b. Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Pig Iron Output - On April 25, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.60 percentage points. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 91.6%, a week - on - week increase of 1.45 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points. The daily average pig iron output was 244.35 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.23 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 15.63 million tons [48]. 6. Options Market - Due to tariff disturbances and increasing iron ore port inventory, the black series is generally weak. It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money put options [51].