事件：公司发布2025 年中期业绩，报告期内公司实现营业收入2.16 亿美元，实现归母净利润-0.89 亿美 元。 维持2025 年5.60 亿至5.90 亿美元的全年收入指引，显示出对于已上市产品下半年放量加速的信心。公 司2025 年上半年实现营业收入2.16 亿美元，但管理层重申2025 年5.60 亿至5.90亿美元的全年收入指 引，显示出管理层对于卫伟迦及卫力迦、则乐、鼎优乐、纽再乐等已上市产品下半年加速销售放量的信 心。 下半年多个里程碑事件值得期待。 机构：国投证券 研究员：李奔/冯俊曦/连国强 （CIDP）的上市许可申请。 2）近期有望获得NMPA 批准的上市许可申请方面：呫诺美林曲司氯铵（KarXT）（M1/M4 型毒蕈碱乙 酰胆碱受体激动剂）有望获批用于精神分裂症、维替索妥尤单抗（TIVDAK，组织因子ADC）有望获批 用于化疗期间或之后病情进展的复发或转移性宫颈癌、瑞普替尼（ROS1/TRK）有望获批用于NTRK 阳 性实体瘤。 3）预期的临床开发和数据公布方面：ZL-1310（DLL3 ADC）用于二线ES-SCLC 将公布数据更新，并 于2025 年下半年启动ZL-1310单药治疗的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zai Ding Pharma's recent financial report showed steady growth, yet its stock prices fell significantly in both Hong Kong and the US, indicating underlying issues with its business model [3][12]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Zai Ding Pharma achieved total revenue of $216 million, a year-on-year increase of 15.35%, and reduced net loss by 33.33% [3][12]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of $110 million, up 9% year-on-year, with R&D and sales management expenses decreasing by 18% and 11% respectively [12]. - Cash and cash equivalents stood at approximately $830 million as of June 30, providing a buffer for market investments and R&D [13]. Product Performance - The ovarian cancer drug "Zele" experienced a significant revenue decline of 9.75% in Q2 2025, dropping from $45 million to $41 million year-on-year [16]. - Zai Ding Pharma's other strategic product, "Aigamod," only saw a 14.47% increase in sales to $26.5 million, falling short of market expectations [18]. - The antibiotic NUZYRA achieved sales of $14.3 million in Q2 2025, showing stable performance [18]. Market Dynamics - The License-in model, which Zai Ding Pharma has relied on, is facing increased competition and shrinking profit margins due to changes in China's pharmaceutical policies and market dynamics [11][25]. - The introduction of the "4+7" centralized procurement policy and regular negotiations for medical insurance have further pressured the profitability of innovative drugs [11][25]. Strategic Shifts - Zai Ding Pharma is attempting to transition towards independent R&D, but faces challenges due to a lack of early-stage development capabilities [26][30]. - The company has initiated its first self-developed antibody project, ZL-1310, which has shown potential in treating small cell lung cancer, but its completion has been delayed to 2027 due to resource allocation issues [28][30]. Leadership and Future Outlook - The founder, Du Ying, has a high compensation package, ranking among the top CEOs globally, which raises questions about the company's operational efficiency [30]. - Zai Ding Pharma aims to continue expanding its product portfolio through the introduction of quality assets and seeks global partnerships to enhance pipeline value [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zai Lab with a target price of $67.22, indicating a potential upside of 96% from the current price of $34.31 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company's total revenue for 1H25 reached $216 million, a year-on-year increase of 15%, with product revenue netting $215 million and collaboration revenue at $1.73 million. The net loss improved by 33% year-on-year to $89.17 million, with an EPS of -$0.08, showing significant improvement from -$0.14 in 1H24 [3][4]. - The growth in revenue for 2Q25 was primarily driven by core products, with significant increases in patient usage of Efgartigimod and sales of other key products benefiting from market expansion and increased penetration [4][8]. - The company reiterated its full-year revenue guidance for 2025, projecting between $560 million and $590 million, with a goal to achieve profitability in 4Q25 [3][5]. Financial Summary - The financial projections for Zai Lab show a steady increase in revenue from $267 million in 2023 to an estimated $1.181 billion by 2027. The gross profit is expected to rise from $171 million in 2023 to $756 million in 2027, while the net profit is projected to turn positive in 2026 with a net income of $19 million [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to USD 46 for the US stock and HKD 36 for the Hong Kong stock, reflecting potential upside of +35% and +18% respectively [5][13]. Core Insights - The company's Q2 2025 performance was below expectations, primarily due to lower-than-expected revenues from key products Aigamod and Zelek, as well as a decline in gross margin [1][2]. - Total revenue for Q2 2025 was USD 110 million, including product net revenue of USD 109 million, which represents a year-over-year increase of 9.0% but is significantly below market expectations [2]. - The net loss narrowed to USD 40.73 million, a decrease of 49.3% year-over-year, but still fell short of internal forecasts [2]. - The report highlights that Aigamod's sales were USD 26.5 million in Q2 2025, showing a year-over-year increase of 14.3%, but the growth rate has slowed compared to previous quarters [3]. - Zelek's revenue was only USD 41 million, down 8.8% year-over-year, attributed to increased competition from generic drugs [3]. Financial Performance Summary - The company maintained its full-year guidance for 2025, projecting total revenue between USD 560 million and USD 590 million, with expectations of significant growth in the second half of the year [4]. - The report anticipates that Aigamod will benefit from new treatment guidelines, potentially leading to a recovery in sales growth [4]. - The company is expected to face challenges in achieving its revenue targets, with projected growth rates of 63%-77% year-over-year and 59%-73% quarter-over-quarter for the second half of 2025 [4]. - Key catalysts for growth include updates on the promising pipeline product ZL-1310 and potential approvals for other drugs in the pipeline [4][12]. Market Data - The current stock price is USD 34.1, with a 52-week range of USD 16.0 to USD 44.3, and a total market capitalization of USD 3.747 billion [5]. - The average daily trading volume over the past three months is USD 32 million [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The domestic innovative drug industry is expected to reach a turning point in 2025, shifting from capital-driven to profit-driven trends, with continuous performance realization likely to elevate valuations [4][28] - The innovative drug market is anticipated to expand due to the implementation of supportive policies and the introduction of the first Class B medical insurance directory [30] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the relative return of the industry compared to the CSI 300 index is 28.2%, with an absolute return of 51.4% [2] Market Analysis and Outlook - The innovative drug sector is entering a new profit-driven cycle, with significant improvements in supply-demand dynamics and competitive landscape [30] - The industry is witnessing a transition where innovative products are being commercialized, marking the beginning of a profit cycle for leading innovative drug companies [29] Mid-Year Tracking - Ganjin Pharmaceutical reported a revenue of 2.067 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 57.18%, with a net profit of 604 million yuan, up 101.96% [25] - The company has successfully expanded its market share through two rounds of insulin procurement, with international revenue reaching 222 million yuan, a 75.08% increase year-on-year [25] Investment Recommendations - Two main investment lines are recommended: 1. Pharma companies transitioning to innovation, with strong performance resilience and a focus on companies like Sanofi, East China Pharmaceutical, and Aosaikang [30][31] 2. Biotech companies with potential for overseas product registration and growth [31] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the realization of R&D pipeline value and increasing the weight of commercialization value realization factors [6][30]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector is experiencing a significant downturn, with the Hang Seng Innovative Drug Index dropping by 0.84%, influenced by disappointing earnings reports from leading companies and profit-taking activities after substantial prior gains [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Innovative Drug Index has declined from a peak of 4132 points on July 30 to 3820 points, representing a cumulative drop of 7.5% [2][3]. - Leading stocks such as Hutchison China MediTech (00013.HK) fell nearly 16%, with Zai Lab (09688.HK) and WuXi AppTec (06821.HK) both dropping over 10% [1][2]. - The index had previously surged over 150% from a low of 1524 points on April 19 to its peak [3]. Group 2: Earnings Reports - Hutchison China MediTech reported total revenue of $278 million, a year-on-year decrease of 9.16%, despite a net profit increase of 1663.32% due to asset sales [5]. - Zai Lab's total revenue was approximately $216 million, a year-on-year increase of 15.35%, but its core product revenue fell by 8.89% [5]. - Analysts noted that both companies' earnings were below industry expectations, contributing to negative market sentiment [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and External Factors - The recent downturn is attributed to a combination of disappointing earnings and profit-taking after a rapid increase in stock prices, with the Hang Seng Innovative Drug Index rising by 30.26% from July 2 to July 29 [6]. - External factors, such as potential U.S. tariffs on imported drugs, have created market anxiety, although the actual impact on the innovative drug sector is expected to be limited [7]. - Despite the current downturn, analysts remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of the innovative drug sector, citing upcoming supportive policies and the ongoing globalization of innovative drug companies [8].

Core Viewpoint - Zai Ding Pharma reported a total revenue of $110 million for Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.43%, and reaffirmed its full-year revenue guidance of $560 million to $590 million [1] Financial Performance - The operating loss for Q2 2025 was $54.9 million, a reduction of 28% year-on-year, while the adjusted operating loss narrowed by 37% to $34.2 million [1] - The net loss was $40.73 million, down 49.27% compared to the previous year [1] - As of June 30, 2025, the total cash and cash equivalents, short-term investments, and restricted cash amounted to $832.3 million [1] Revenue Drivers - Revenue growth in Q2 was primarily driven by increased sales of Efgartigimod, DaxibotulinumtoxinA, and Nuvaxovid, partially offset by a slowdown in sales of Zolbetuximab [1] - The product revenue for Efgartigimod in Q2 2025 was $26.5 million, up 46% from $18.1 million in Q1 2025, attributed to extended treatment duration and improved market penetration [1] - Zolbetuximab generated $41 million in product revenue for Q2 2025, down from $45 million in the same period of 2024, due to changes in competitive dynamics for PARPi products [1] - DaxibotulinumtoxinA, launched in Q4 2024, generated $4.6 million in product revenue for Q2 2025 [1] Research and Development Expenditure - R&D expenses for Q2 2025 were $50.6 million, down from $61.6 million in Q2 2024, mainly due to cost reductions from resource prioritization and efficiency measures [2] - Selling, general, and administrative expenses for Q2 2025 were $71 million, a decrease from $79.7 million in the same period of 2024, also attributed to cost-saving initiatives [2] Strategic Outlook - The company is entering a critical development phase focused on innovation, scalability, and efficient execution, with significant progress across various business areas [3] - The CEO highlighted the potential of ZL-1310 in treating second-line small cell lung cancer and the positive data for Bemarituzumab in first-line gastric cancer, reinforcing recent commercialization opportunities [3] - The company anticipates continued growth momentum for Efgartigimod, supported by updated treatment guidelines in China, and is preparing for the launch of several key products [3] - With a robust cash reserve and ongoing growth in commercial operations, the company is positioned to create long-term value for shareholders [3]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.88%, S&P 500 futures up by 1.03%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 1.35% [1] - European indices also show positive movement, with Germany's DAX up by 1.16%, UK's FTSE 100 up by 0.28%, France's CAC 40 up by 1.07%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 1.28% [2] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.77% to $59.10 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by 1.47% to $62.02 per barrel [2] Trade Agreements and Economic Outlook - President Trump is set to announce a "comprehensive" trade agreement with the UK, which may involve reducing tariffs on UK steel and automobiles, as well as agricultural tariffs [3] - PIMCO warns that the risk of a US recession is at its highest in years, suggesting that investors may underestimate Trump's willingness to reinstate aggressive tariffs [4] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut interest rates until trade policy becomes clearer, maintaining the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5% [5] Inflation and Currency Impact - Goldman Sachs raised its inflation forecasts for the US, predicting a key inflation indicator to reach 3.8% by the end of 2025, influenced by a weaker dollar due to tariffs [6] Company Earnings Reports - Shopify reported Q1 sales of $2.36 billion, exceeding expectations, but faces challenges from tariffs affecting its cross-border business, which accounts for 14% of its total gross merchandise volume [6] - Toyota's Q4 revenue was 12.36 trillion yen, up 12% year-on-year, but net profit fell by 33% to 664.6 billion yen, below expectations. The company forecasts a 21% decline in operating profit for FY2026 [7] - Anheuser-Busch InBev's Q1 adjusted EBITDA grew by 7.9%, surpassing expectations, and the company maintained its annual guidance [7] - Occidental Petroleum's Q1 sales rose by 14% to $6.84 billion, exceeding expectations, with a focus on debt reduction [8] - Arm's Q1 revenue guidance disappointed, reflecting concerns about a slowdown in the chip industry [8] - Fortinet's Q1 revenue grew by 13.7% to $1.539 billion, with net profit increasing by 44.8% [9] - AppLovin's Q1 revenue reached $1.48 billion, up 40%, and the company agreed to sell its mobile gaming division to focus on advertising technology [10] - Zai Lab reported Q1 total revenue of $106 million, a 22.19% increase year-on-year, driven by sales growth of its key products [10] - AutoHome's Q1 net income was 342 million yuan, with total revenue of 1.454 billion yuan [11] Strategic Moves - Apple is reconsidering its $20 billion search deal with Google, suggesting that future collaboration may not be necessary as it explores AI services [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the U.S. government's decision to impose tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals, highlighting potential impacts on global pharmaceutical supply chains and the strategies that Chinese innovative drug companies may adopt in response [2][6][10]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Pharmaceutical Industry - The U.S. tariffs on pharmaceuticals aim to encourage multinational companies to establish production facilities in the U.S., thereby reducing reliance on imports [2][5]. - Analysts suggest that the tariff policy may lead to increased instability in the global pharmaceutical supply chain, particularly affecting Chinese innovative drug companies' international strategies [2][6]. - The tariffs could result in higher export costs and reduced profit margins for Chinese companies that depend on the U.S. market [6][10]. Group 2: Responses from Chinese Innovative Drug Companies - Several Chinese innovative drug companies are assessing the potential impacts of the tariffs, with some indicating that they may face valuation pressures in the short term [2][6]. - Companies like Hengrui Medicine and Zai Lab have stated that the tariffs will have limited impact on their operations due to their low reliance on U.S. sales [7][8]. - Analysts recommend that Chinese companies accelerate local production in the U.S. to mitigate tariff risks and explore supply chain diversification in lower-cost regions [10][11]. Group 3: Long-term Strategies and Market Dynamics - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining strong research and development capabilities and diversifying risk through licensing agreements [3][12]. - The global pharmaceutical landscape may shift, with Indian pharmaceutical companies potentially benefiting from the changes in the supply chain dynamics [6][10]. - The article notes that while geopolitical risks are significant, the ultimate competitive advantage for innovative drug companies lies in their ability to deliver clinical value and innovation [12].