申万宏源主要观点如下： 再鼎医药为一家处于商业化阶段的创新型全球生物制药公司。凭借授权引进(license-in)与自主研发，目 前公司共有七款产品于国内获批上市，包括四款肿瘤产品(则乐、爱普盾、擎乐、奥凯乐)、一款免疫产 品(艾加莫德)，以及两款感染性疾病产品(纽再乐、鼎优乐)。此外，公司拥有涵盖肿瘤、免疫、神经科 学和感染性疾病的广泛产品管线。 核心产品持续销售放量，新产品有望进一步丰富产品组合 2019年以来，随着首款商业化产品尼拉帕利于国内获批上市，目前公司已有七款商业化产品。2024年公 司总收入达到3.99亿美元，同比增长50%，主要由于卫伟迦/卫力迦、纽再乐等产品销售放量。新产品方 面，公司已于今年上半年向NMPA递交了KarXT和维替索妥尤单抗(TF ADC)的上市申请。此外，公司预 计将于今年下半年向NMPA递交贝玛妥珠单抗针对1L胃癌的上市申请。随着现有商业化产品的销售放 量，以及Kar-XT、贝玛妥珠单抗、ZL-1310(DLL3ADC)、povetacicept等新产品未来获批上市，公司预计 2028年营收有望达到20亿美元。 申万宏源发布研报称，随着商业化产品的销售放量，以及本地化生 ...

智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，随着商业化产品的销售放量，以及本地化生产布局，再鼎医 药(09688)预计将于2025年四季度实现non-GAAP经营利润。此外，该行预计2025-2027年公司收入分别 为5.53亿美元，8.02亿美元和12.03亿美元，2025-2027年公司归母净利润分别为-1.34亿美元、0.15亿美元 和1.73亿美元。基于DCF模型，给予目标价35.2港元。目标价对应39%的上涨空间，看好公司的创新管 线布局，首次覆盖给予买入评级。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 再鼎医药为一家处于商业化阶段的创新型全球生物制药公司。凭借授权引进（license-in）与自主研发， 目前公司共有七款产品于国内获批上市，包括四款肿瘤产品（则乐、爱普盾、擎乐、奥凯乐）、一款免 疫产品（艾加莫德），以及两款感染性疾病产品（纽再乐、鼎优乐）。此外，公司拥有涵盖肿瘤、免 疫、神经科学和感染性疾病的广泛产品管线。 核心产品持续销售放量，新产品有望进一步丰富产品组合 2019年以来，随着首款商业化产品尼拉帕利于国内获批上市，目前公司已有七款商业化产品。2024年公 司总收入达到3.99亿美元，同比增长50%，主 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5][11]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to reach a profitability inflection point due to its differentiated innovative pipeline and ongoing commercialization of its products [2][13]. - The company expects significant revenue growth, projecting revenues of $3.99 billion in 2024, $5.53 billion in 2025, $8.02 billion in 2026, and $12.03 billion in 2027, with a potential revenue of $2 billion by 2028 [2][5][11]. Summary by Sections Product Pipeline and Commercialization - The company has seven products approved for sale in China, including four oncology products, one immunology product, and two infectious disease products [2][27]. - The core products are experiencing strong sales growth, with a projected revenue increase of 50% year-over-year in 2024, driven by products like Weiwei Jia and Niu Zai Le [2][30]. - The company has submitted applications for new products, including KarXT and TF ADC, and anticipates further submissions for other products [2][12]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of $5.53 billion, $8.02 billion, and $12.03 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits expected to turn positive by 2027 [5][11]. - The report indicates that the company will achieve non-GAAP operating profit by Q4 2025, supported by local production and increasing product sales [41]. Market Position and Valuation - The company's current stock price reflects a valuation of 7 times the 2025 price-to-sales ratio, compared to an average of 18 times for comparable companies, indicating attractive valuation [11]. - The target price is set at HKD 35.2, representing a 39% upside potential from the current price [5][11]. Key Product Highlights - Efgartigimod (艾加莫德) is expected to become a leading product in the autoimmune field, with significant sales growth projected due to new indications and formulations [3][12]. - ZL-1310 (DLL3 ADC) has shown promising clinical data and is expected to enter critical global studies [4][38]. - The company is actively expanding its global pipeline, focusing on ADCs and bispecific antibodies, with multiple products in various stages of clinical development [4][38].

Core Viewpoint - Zai Ding Pharma's recent financial report showed steady growth, yet its stock prices fell significantly in both Hong Kong and the US, indicating underlying issues with its business model [3][12]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Zai Ding Pharma achieved total revenue of $216 million, a year-on-year increase of 15.35%, and reduced net loss by 33.33% [3][12]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of $110 million, up 9% year-on-year, with R&D and sales management expenses decreasing by 18% and 11% respectively [12]. - Cash and cash equivalents stood at approximately $830 million as of June 30, providing a buffer for market investments and R&D [13]. Product Performance - The ovarian cancer drug "Zele" experienced a significant revenue decline of 9.75% in Q2 2025, dropping from $45 million to $41 million year-on-year [16]. - Zai Ding Pharma's other strategic product, "Aigamod," only saw a 14.47% increase in sales to $26.5 million, falling short of market expectations [18]. - The antibiotic NUZYRA achieved sales of $14.3 million in Q2 2025, showing stable performance [18]. Market Dynamics - The License-in model, which Zai Ding Pharma has relied on, is facing increased competition and shrinking profit margins due to changes in China's pharmaceutical policies and market dynamics [11][25]. - The introduction of the "4+7" centralized procurement policy and regular negotiations for medical insurance have further pressured the profitability of innovative drugs [11][25]. Strategic Shifts - Zai Ding Pharma is attempting to transition towards independent R&D, but faces challenges due to a lack of early-stage development capabilities [26][30]. - The company has initiated its first self-developed antibody project, ZL-1310, which has shown potential in treating small cell lung cancer, but its completion has been delayed to 2027 due to resource allocation issues [28][30]. Leadership and Future Outlook - The founder, Du Ying, has a high compensation package, ranking among the top CEOs globally, which raises questions about the company's operational efficiency [30]. - Zai Ding Pharma aims to continue expanding its product portfolio through the introduction of quality assets and seeks global partnerships to enhance pipeline value [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zai Lab with a target price of $67.22, indicating a potential upside of 96% from the current price of $34.31 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company's total revenue for 1H25 reached $216 million, a year-on-year increase of 15%, with product revenue netting $215 million and collaboration revenue at $1.73 million. The net loss improved by 33% year-on-year to $89.17 million, with an EPS of -$0.08, showing significant improvement from -$0.14 in 1H24 [3][4]. - The growth in revenue for 2Q25 was primarily driven by core products, with significant increases in patient usage of Efgartigimod and sales of other key products benefiting from market expansion and increased penetration [4][8]. - The company reiterated its full-year revenue guidance for 2025, projecting between $560 million and $590 million, with a goal to achieve profitability in 4Q25 [3][5]. Financial Summary - The financial projections for Zai Lab show a steady increase in revenue from $267 million in 2023 to an estimated $1.181 billion by 2027. The gross profit is expected to rise from $171 million in 2023 to $756 million in 2027, while the net profit is projected to turn positive in 2026 with a net income of $19 million [7].

Core Viewpoints - Zai Ding Pharma reported a 9% year-on-year revenue growth for Q2 2025, with total revenue reaching $110 million, despite a slowdown due to declining sales of the PARP inhibitor Niraparib, attributed to intensified competition in the same category [1] - The company expects rapid revenue growth in the next two to three years as multiple new products and indications are anticipated to be approved, aiming for operational profitability by Q4 2025 [1] - Key catalysts in the second half of the year include detailed data disclosure from the Phase III clinical trial of Bemarituzumab (FORTITUDE-101) and data readout from the Phase III trial of KarXT (ADEPT-2) [1] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Zai Ding Pharma's adjusted operating loss narrowed by 37% to $34.2 million, while net loss decreased by 28% to $54.9 million [1] - Revenue from Niraparib was $41 million, a 9% decline year-on-year due to competitive pressures, while Aigamod revenue grew by 14% year-on-year to $26.5 million, benefiting from extended treatment cycles and increased market penetration [1] - Omaveloxolone generated $14.3 million in revenue, reflecting a 16% year-on-year increase due to expanded market coverage [1] Product Pipeline and Innovations - ZL-1310 has received accelerated development status in small cell lung cancer, and Bemarituzumab has met primary endpoints in its Phase III study for FGFR2b overexpressing gastric cancer, with plans for a market application submission in China [2] - Aigamod has been upgraded in the Chinese guidelines for myasthenia gravis, highlighting its clinical value for early and long-term treatment [2] - ZL-1503 shows promising treatment prospects for atopic dermatitis, supported by its long half-life characteristics [2] Clinical Data and Efficacy - The global Phase II FIGHT study for Bemarituzumab demonstrated a median overall survival of 19.2 months in the chemotherapy combination group, with significant survival benefits in the FGFR2b overexpressing subgroup [3] - In the East Asian subgroup, median overall survival was further optimized to 30.1 months, underscoring the importance of biomarker selection for efficacy [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to USD 46 for the US stock and HKD 36 for the Hong Kong stock, reflecting potential upside of +35% and +18% respectively [5][13]. Core Insights - The company's Q2 2025 performance was below expectations, primarily due to lower-than-expected revenues from key products Aigamod and Zelek, as well as a decline in gross margin [1][2]. - Total revenue for Q2 2025 was USD 110 million, including product net revenue of USD 109 million, which represents a year-over-year increase of 9.0% but is significantly below market expectations [2]. - The net loss narrowed to USD 40.73 million, a decrease of 49.3% year-over-year, but still fell short of internal forecasts [2]. - The report highlights that Aigamod's sales were USD 26.5 million in Q2 2025, showing a year-over-year increase of 14.3%, but the growth rate has slowed compared to previous quarters [3]. - Zelek's revenue was only USD 41 million, down 8.8% year-over-year, attributed to increased competition from generic drugs [3]. Financial Performance Summary - The company maintained its full-year guidance for 2025, projecting total revenue between USD 560 million and USD 590 million, with expectations of significant growth in the second half of the year [4]. - The report anticipates that Aigamod will benefit from new treatment guidelines, potentially leading to a recovery in sales growth [4]. - The company is expected to face challenges in achieving its revenue targets, with projected growth rates of 63%-77% year-over-year and 59%-73% quarter-over-quarter for the second half of 2025 [4]. - Key catalysts for growth include updates on the promising pipeline product ZL-1310 and potential approvals for other drugs in the pipeline [4][12]. Market Data - The current stock price is USD 34.1, with a 52-week range of USD 16.0 to USD 44.3, and a total market capitalization of USD 3.747 billion [5]. - The average daily trading volume over the past three months is USD 32 million [5].

Core Viewpoint - Zai Ding Pharma reported a total revenue of $110 million for Q2 2025, reflecting a 9% year-over-year growth, with management reaffirming the annual revenue guidance and targeting a positive Non-GAAP operating profit by Q4 2025. However, the market reacted negatively, with a significant drop in stock prices, raising questions about underlying concerns in the financial report and potential investment opportunities [1][2][3]. Revenue Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of $110 million in Q2 2025, marking a 9% increase year-over-year, and a 10% increase when adjusted for constant exchange rates [2]. - Management reiterated the annual revenue guidance, indicating a sustainable growth outlook [2]. Market Concerns - The revenue growth has raised market concerns, particularly regarding the performance of the PARPi product line, which saw a 9.75% decline in sales year-over-year, leading to skepticism about the annual revenue guidance of $560 million to $590 million [3][4]. - Despite the challenges faced by the PARPi products, there are signs of marginal improvement in sales for the second half of the year [4]. Product Performance - The sales of the flagship product, Egamod, increased significantly by 46% quarter-over-quarter, reaching a historical high in patient usage, although year-over-year growth remains modest [5]. - The company plans to submit a market application for a pre-filled subcutaneous injection of Egamod in 2025, which will enhance its market position with three administration methods [5]. New Growth Drivers - New products such as Niu Zai Le and Ding You Le contributed to a 30% year-over-year growth in "other businesses," indicating a strengthening pipeline [6]. Global Pipeline Development - Zai Ding Pharma is advancing its "dual reporting in China and the U.S." strategy, with several global pipeline candidates entering critical stages [10]. - Notable candidates include ZL-1310 for small cell lung cancer and ZL-1503 for atopic dermatitis, both showing promising clinical results [11]. Financial Health - The company reported a Q2 2025 operating loss of $54.9 million, a 28% year-over-year reduction, with adjusted losses narrowing by 37% to $34.2 million, indicating improved financial health [13]. - With cash reserves of $832.3 million, the company is well-positioned to support business expansion and R&D efforts [13]. Market Sentiment - Despite stock price declines, there was a significant inflow of capital into the stock, suggesting some investors are adopting a "buy the dip" strategy [9]. - The overall market sentiment remains optimistic due to the company's global pipeline and clear path to profitability, which may lead to a revaluation of the stock [15].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The domestic innovative drug industry is expected to reach a turning point in 2025, shifting from capital-driven to profit-driven trends, with continuous performance realization likely to elevate valuations [4][28] - The innovative drug market is anticipated to expand due to the implementation of supportive policies and the introduction of the first Class B medical insurance directory [30] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the relative return of the industry compared to the CSI 300 index is 28.2%, with an absolute return of 51.4% [2] Market Analysis and Outlook - The innovative drug sector is entering a new profit-driven cycle, with significant improvements in supply-demand dynamics and competitive landscape [30] - The industry is witnessing a transition where innovative products are being commercialized, marking the beginning of a profit cycle for leading innovative drug companies [29] Mid-Year Tracking - Ganjin Pharmaceutical reported a revenue of 2.067 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 57.18%, with a net profit of 604 million yuan, up 101.96% [25] - The company has successfully expanded its market share through two rounds of insulin procurement, with international revenue reaching 222 million yuan, a 75.08% increase year-on-year [25] Investment Recommendations - Two main investment lines are recommended: 1. Pharma companies transitioning to innovation, with strong performance resilience and a focus on companies like Sanofi, East China Pharmaceutical, and Aosaikang [30][31] 2. Biotech companies with potential for overseas product registration and growth [31] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the realization of R&D pipeline value and increasing the weight of commercialization value realization factors [6][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on Zai Lab with a reaffirmed full-year revenue guidance of USD 560-590 million for 2025 [1][5]. Core Insights - Zai Lab reported a net product revenue of USD 109 million in 2Q25, representing a 9% year-over-year increase, with a gross margin of 60.7% [1][5]. - The core product, efgartigimod, achieved sales of USD 26.5 million, up 14% year-over-year and 46% quarter-over-quarter, driven by extended treatment duration and improved market penetration [2][7]. - The company narrowed its net loss to USD 40.7 million from USD 80.3 million in the same quarter last year, with adjusted operating loss improving by 37% year-over-year to USD 34.2 million [1][5]. Financial Performance - The R&D expense ratio decreased to 46.0% of revenue, down 15.3 percentage points year-over-year, while SG&A expenses decreased to 64.6%, down 14.7 percentage points year-over-year [1][5]. - As of the end of 2Q25, Zai Lab had a strong cash position of USD 860 million [1][5]. Key Milestones - Anticipated milestones for 2H25 include the submission of a Biologics License Application (BLA) for bemarituzumab for first-line gastric cancer treatment and a marketing authorization application for tumor treating fields in first-line pancreatic cancer treatment [2][7]. - Initiation of a global registrational study for ZL-1310 monotherapy in second-line extensive-stage small cell lung cancer (ES-SCLC) is also planned [2][7].