兆易创新 20250822 摘要 2025 年上半年，兆易创新营收达 34.4 亿元，同比增长 13.1%，归母 净利润 3.4 亿元，同比增长 9.2%。消费需求强劲，工业自动化稳健， 光伏行业逐步复苏，低端市场因国外大厂退出而涨价，金融事业部量价 齐升，毛利率恢复至两位数以上。 Flash 业务在 2025 上半年实现高个位数增长，车规 Flash 收入增长超 50%，受益于产品优势和客户覆盖。AI PC 渗透率提升和服务器需求强 劲推动 Flash 收入增长。公司坚持以市占率为核心目标，深耕工业和汽 车市场，积极拓展海外市场。 利基 DRAM 业务受益于海外大厂产能转移导致供应缺口，推动价格上涨， 毛利率已达两位数以上。预计下半年涨价趋势延续，新产品导入顺利， 目标低润产品线收入增长 50%以上，并有信心成为国内利基 DRAM 市 场龙头，五年后达到 70 亿人民币收入。 公司与逻辑芯片客户合作，在定制化存储解决方案中取得进展，通过架 构创新提升算力和效率。预计 2026 年后，定制化存储解决方案将在 AI PC、手机、智能设备及汽车等领域实现样品推出和芯片量产。 Q&A 兆易创新在 2025 年上半年 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [5] Core Viewpoints - The niche DRAM market is undergoing a supply-demand reshaping, driven by AI and domestic substitution opportunities, indicating a sustained market outlook [3][22] - The niche DRAM market is not only a stock market but also a growth market, with the market size expected to grow from $8.5 billion in 2024 to $12.2 billion in 2026 [8][18] - The supply gap for DDR4 and LPDDR4 is expected to persist, benefiting Tier 2 suppliers like Zhaoyi Innovation [21][22] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Recommended companies to focus on include Zhaoyi Innovation, Beijing Junzheng, Fudan Microelectronics, and others [3][22] Market Dynamics - The demand for DDR4 and LPDDR4 remains stable across various sectors, including consumer electronics, industrial, and automotive markets [8][12] - The contract prices for DDR4 are expected to continue rising, with projected increases of 38%-43% in the PC market and 40%-45% in the consumer market for Q3 [12][15] - NAND product prices have shown a consistent upward trend, with increases of 17.4% and 15.6% for specific NAND Flash products since June [9][12] Supply Chain Insights - Major manufacturers are exiting the DDR4 and LPDDR4 markets, leading to a supply shortage that is expected to drive prices up [21][22] - The ongoing production cuts by Micron are anticipated to exacerbate the LPDDR4 shortage, with price increases expected [12][17] Market Growth Projections - The niche DRAM market is projected to grow significantly, with AI applications driving demand for higher data processing and storage capabilities [18][19] - The overall market for niche DRAM is expected to see a substantial increase in demand due to advancements in technology and new application scenarios [18][19]

Summary of Zhaoyi Innovation Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zhaoyi Innovation - **Industry**: Semiconductor, specifically focusing on Flash memory, MCU, and DRAM products Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - **Q2 Performance**: Overall good performance with Flash product line expected to grow approximately 5% year-over-year, MCU product line expected to grow about 10%, and niche DRAM expected to increase by about 20% due to rising spot prices [2][5][6] - **Gross Margin**: DRAM business gross margin significantly improved, with Q1 gross margin in single digits, reaching over 20% in May, and expected to be 15%-20% for the year [2][8] - **Revenue Projections**: DRAM revenue is projected to account for 20% of total revenue by 2025, with D4 products being a major growth driver [2][9] Market Dynamics - **DDR4 Market**: Supply-demand imbalance in the DDR4 market due to major manufacturers exiting, creating a shortage of about 40%-50%, which is expected to keep prices high [2][17][20] - **Third Quarter Outlook**: Growth in the storage market will shift to industrial sectors such as industrial control, digital energy, and security, with seasonal demand expected in industrial control [2][7][15] Strategic Initiatives - **R&D Investment**: The company aims to enhance R&D capabilities to support AI and globalization strategies, focusing on server, AI server, Flash storage, and MCU development [2][18] - **Customized Storage Solutions**: Targeting high-end markets with customized storage solutions using Hyperbonding stacking technology, expected to generate revenue starting in the second half of 2026 [3][22] Supply Chain and Pricing - **Supply Chain Adjustments**: Anticipated price increases in DRAM modules due to supply constraints from major manufacturers ceasing supply [4][21] - **Price Trends**: The storage market is expected to see continued price growth in the second half of the year, with potential high-level fluctuations in Q4 [21] Future Growth Areas - **Industrial Sector Growth**: The industrial sector is expected to contribute significantly to growth, particularly in the domestic market for smart meters and MCU applications [15][16] - **Customized Storage Business**: Expected to become a significant growth driver, with revenue projections reaching several hundred million by 2026 [23][27] Competitive Landscape - **Market Positioning**: The company is positioning itself against major players by focusing on customized solutions rather than direct competition in the high-end market [22][24] Additional Insights - **Impact of Major Players Exiting**: The exit of major players from the DDR4 market has created a favorable pricing environment for Zhaoyi Innovation, ensuring sustained demand for their products [17][20] - **Long-term Vision**: The company aims to achieve self-sufficiency in its customized storage business, targeting a revenue goal of 1 billion within three years [27][30] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting Zhaoyi Innovation's performance, market dynamics, strategic initiatives, and future growth prospects.

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Lijichun Storage Technology Co., Ltd. has submitted an application for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, focusing on the niche DRAM market, which is experiencing significant cyclical fluctuations and growth opportunities driven by AI and HBM demand [1][2]. Company Overview - Lijichun Storage was established in 2020 and primarily focuses on the niche DRAM market after acquiring a majority stake in Zentel Japan [1]. - The company’s main products include memory chips, memory modules, KGD wafers, and AI computing solutions, applicable in various sectors such as consumer electronics, network communication, automotive electronics, and industrial control systems [3]. Market Dynamics - The global DRAM market is the second largest segment in the integrated circuit market, with a market size of 462.4 billion yuan in 2020, growing to 612.4 billion yuan in 2021, but declining to 365.4 billion yuan in 2023 due to inventory accumulation and weak demand [1]. - The market is expected to rebound to 697.9 billion yuan in 2024, driven by increased server demand and recovery in consumer electronics [1]. Financial Performance - Lijichun Storage reported revenues of 610 million yuan, 580 million yuan, and 646 million yuan for 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, with net losses of 139 million yuan, 244 million yuan, and 109 million yuan during the same years [5]. - The company’s gross margin improved from -2.1% in 2022 to 9.3% in 2024, indicating a positive trend in profitability [6]. R&D and Product Development - The company is developing a range of AI computing solutions, including high-bandwidth 3D stacked memory chips, aimed at addressing storage bottlenecks in data-intensive AI applications [4]. - R&D expenditures were 74 million yuan, 77 million yuan, and 96 million yuan for 2022, 2023, and 2024, representing 12.1%, 13.3%, and 14.8% of total revenue, respectively [6]. Competitive Landscape - The niche DRAM market is characterized by process upgrades and product differentiation as key competitive factors [7]. - Lijichun Storage has signed a cooperation agreement with its wafer foundry to develop memory products based on 19nm and below processes, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge in the domestic market [7].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that despite being a traditionally slow season, the first quarter of 2025 for Zhaoyi Innovation (兆易创新) showed significant growth in both revenue and profit, driven by strong downstream demand and government stimulus measures [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Zhaoyi Innovation achieved a revenue of 7.356 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.69%, and a net profit of 1.103 billion yuan, up 584.21% [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.909 billion yuan, a 17.32% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 235 million yuan, reflecting a 14.57% growth [2]. Operational Analysis - The growth in Q1 2025 is attributed to several factors: 1) Government subsidies stimulating consumer electronics demand and other national measures boosting consumption [3]. 2) The AI sector driving upgrades in edge storage capacity, benefiting from increased demand for storage in computing and networking markets [3]. Future Growth Drivers - The report identifies "domestic substitution + edge AI" as the main growth drivers for the company: 1) Niche storage and MCU accelerating domestic substitution due to supply chain concerns from US-China tariffs, with Zhaoyi Innovation having a technological edge in areas like NorFlash and MCU [4]. 2) AI driving upgrades in edge storage, with expectations for a significant market expansion in AI applications such as AI headphones, smartphones, and smart homes, where the company has a comprehensive product line [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.6 billion yuan, 2.1 billion yuan, and 2.64 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 45.1%, 31.2%, and 25.8% [5]. - Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are expected to be 47, 36, and 28 times for the same years [5].