以下文章来源于刀法研究所 ，作者刀法行研 刀法研究所 . 洞察新消费，赋能新品牌，剖析新营销，成就中国好品牌。 作者 | 大格 中国有 33.8 万家烘焙店，2000+ 连锁烘焙品牌，但真正全国性连锁烘焙品牌不到 30 家，门店数量近千的更是两只手可数。[1] 其中有一家品牌，几次濒临破产，愣是靠自救翻红成顶流。从甘肃起家，做到赛道内品牌好感度排名 Top1 [2]。一块 4 寸蛋糕新品，让北上广黄牛们抢 破头。它叫「好利来」。 30 年前好利来刚出道，就赶上了潮流——在传统朴素的糕点店里，走着西式甜点的路子。如今它被捧成蛋糕顶流，成功的秘密反倒是打碎西化，靠"中 国超市路线"赢得人心。 这一篇，不讲制服、不讲二哥罗成，不讲帅哥美女店员，刀法想和你分享「好利来之所以变成今天」背后的新发现——抓心智、抓情绪、做活人感。 直男、60岁老人、黄牛都在排队买好利来 "好利来，你说的是那个粉粉的门店？" 粉色的门头、甜蜜的风格、清一色高颜值店员，现在的好利来打眼一看就是一家小女生爱去的烘焙店。 这话只说对了一半。 在烘焙界，不同于国内其它白色简约风为主连锁烘焙品牌门店，好利来确实有着独树一帜的粉红氛围，也把 Z 世代女 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of the bakery industry, particularly focusing on the failures of several well-known brands and the underlying reasons for their struggles in a competitive market [4][5][9]. Group 1: Brand Failures - Several prominent bakery brands, including Huan Niu Cake House and BreadTalk, have recently closed stores or declared bankruptcy, highlighting a troubling trend in the industry [4][5][7]. - Huan Niu Cake House, founded in 2013, announced its closure in June 2025, with debts to suppliers amounting to 1.11 million USD and unredeemable membership funds [7]. - Tiger Head Bureau, once valued at 2 billion CNY, is undergoing bankruptcy liquidation due to aggressive expansion leading to a cash flow crisis [7]. - Other brands like Panda Not Going and Christine have also faced significant operational challenges, leading to widespread store closures [7][8]. Group 2: Market Challenges - The bakery market is experiencing a downturn due to three main factors: homogenized competition, pressure from retail channels, and the shortening lifecycle of popular products [9][10][12]. - Homogenized competition has made it easy for new entrants to replicate successful products, leading to a saturation of similar offerings in the market [10][11]. - Retail giants like Hema and Costco have begun to dominate the bakery segment, offering a wide range of products that compete directly with traditional bakery brands [12][13]. - The lifecycle of bakery products has decreased significantly, with popular items now only maintaining consumer interest for a month or less, compared to previous years where they lasted for 6-8 months [14][15]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The trend of consumer downgrading has led to a polarization in the bakery market, with high-end brands struggling while budget-friendly options thrive [18][19]. - Consumers are increasingly prioritizing affordability over luxury, as seen with new entrants like Haidilao's bakery brand, which focuses on low-priced offerings [20][21]. - Brands that fail to establish a unique product identity or quality are at risk of losing market share, as consumers gravitate towards more reliable and affordable options [22][23]. Group 4: Future Opportunities - Despite the challenges, there are opportunities for growth in the bakery sector, particularly as the market becomes more accessible and everyday [21]. - Brands that focus on creating long-lasting, high-quality products with clear consumer engagement can still succeed in this evolving landscape [24][25].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights how Haolilai, a well-known cake brand, has successfully turned a service incident into a marketing opportunity by showcasing its commitment to customer satisfaction through a unique cake repair service, which has garnered significant online attention and emotional connection with consumers [1][12][13]. Group 1: Service Philosophy - Haolilai has maintained a "free repair" service policy for 30 years, initiated by the founder to address frequent cake damage during winter deliveries [6]. - The brand's customer service confirms that the repair service is not limited to specific brands and aims to restore cakes to the best possible condition based on the damage [8]. - The repair service has become a standard procedure in Haolilai stores, with staff trained to handle various types of cake damage, demonstrating their commitment to quality and customer care [6][8]. Group 2: Emotional Connection and Marketing Strategy - The repair service is likened to "cake aesthetic medicine," emphasizing the skill of the decorators and the emotional significance of the cakes for customers [8][12]. - Haolilai's approach to service creates a strong emotional bond with customers, aligning with the company's philosophy of using products and services to touch customers' hearts [12]. - The brand's ability to transform a potential crisis into an opportunity for emotional connection illustrates its understanding of consumer psychology and the importance of memorable experiences [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resurgence of high-priced bakery brands in major cities like Beijing, highlighting their rapid expansion and the changing consumer behavior towards premium baked goods amidst a backdrop of previous market contraction [10][50]. Group 1: Market Trends - High-end bakery brands are rapidly expanding in first and new-tier cities, with over 20 brands competing in high-traffic shopping centers like Beijing's He Sheng Hui [7][50]. - The average price of new premium bakery products exceeds 60 yuan, with some brands like UH YUHE and B&C leading the charge in market presence [10][50]. - Despite a previous wave of closures among high-priced bakeries, the current trend shows a renewed interest from consumers willing to pay for premium products, often leading to long queues at popular stores [10][14][27]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers express mixed feelings about high-priced bakery items, with some lamenting the cost while others eagerly await new product releases, indicating a strong emotional connection to these brands [10][14][18]. - The phenomenon of "queue marketing" is prevalent, where long lines at stores create a perception of desirability and quality, driving more foot traffic [43][44]. Group 3: Brand Strategies - Many high-end bakery brands are adopting innovative marketing strategies, including social media promotions and unique product offerings to attract consumers [44][50]. - The use of creative product names and appealing packaging is a common tactic among these brands to enhance their market presence and consumer appeal [21][24][40]. - Brands are increasingly focusing on transparency in their baking processes, with open kitchens and live baking demonstrations becoming a standard feature to build consumer trust [35][37]. Group 4: Challenges and Risks - Despite the current popularity, the high-end bakery market faces significant challenges, including high operational costs and the risk of market saturation leading to potential closures [46][50]. - The average lifespan of bakery stores is decreasing, with a closure rate of 25% reported, indicating a volatile market environment [50][51]. - Some brands have already begun to close locations due to unsustainable business models, highlighting the precarious nature of the high-end bakery segment [53][54].