Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of the bakery industry, particularly focusing on the failures of several well-known brands and the underlying reasons for their struggles in a competitive market [4][5][9]. Group 1: Brand Failures - Several prominent bakery brands, including Huan Niu Cake House and BreadTalk, have recently closed stores or declared bankruptcy, highlighting a troubling trend in the industry [4][5][7]. - Huan Niu Cake House, founded in 2013, announced its closure in June 2025, with debts to suppliers amounting to 1.11 million USD and unredeemable membership funds [7]. - Tiger Head Bureau, once valued at 2 billion CNY, is undergoing bankruptcy liquidation due to aggressive expansion leading to a cash flow crisis [7]. - Other brands like Panda Not Going and Christine have also faced significant operational challenges, leading to widespread store closures [7][8]. Group 2: Market Challenges - The bakery market is experiencing a downturn due to three main factors: homogenized competition, pressure from retail channels, and the shortening lifecycle of popular products [9][10][12]. - Homogenized competition has made it easy for new entrants to replicate successful products, leading to a saturation of similar offerings in the market [10][11]. - Retail giants like Hema and Costco have begun to dominate the bakery segment, offering a wide range of products that compete directly with traditional bakery brands [12][13]. - The lifecycle of bakery products has decreased significantly, with popular items now only maintaining consumer interest for a month or less, compared to previous years where they lasted for 6-8 months [14][15]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The trend of consumer downgrading has led to a polarization in the bakery market, with high-end brands struggling while budget-friendly options thrive [18][19]. - Consumers are increasingly prioritizing affordability over luxury, as seen with new entrants like Haidilao's bakery brand, which focuses on low-priced offerings [20][21]. - Brands that fail to establish a unique product identity or quality are at risk of losing market share, as consumers gravitate towards more reliable and affordable options [22][23]. Group 4: Future Opportunities - Despite the challenges, there are opportunities for growth in the bakery sector, particularly as the market becomes more accessible and everyday [21]. - Brands that focus on creating long-lasting, high-quality products with clear consumer engagement can still succeed in this evolving landscape [24][25].

Core Viewpoint - The once-thriving chain bakery industry is facing significant challenges, with numerous brands shutting down due to overexpansion, lack of differentiation, and changing consumer preferences [1][2][11]. Brand Analysis - **Huan Niu Cake House**: Founded in 2013, received nearly 10 million USD in A-round financing in 2022, announced closure in June 2025, with debts to suppliers amounting to 1.11 million USD and unredeemable member prepaid cards [3]. - **Tiger Head Bureau**: Established in 2019, valued at 2 billion CNY at its peak, went into bankruptcy in January 2024 due to aggressive expansion leading to a cash flow crisis [3]. - **Panda Doesn't Go Cake**: Founded in 2017, faced a nationwide closure in March 2024, with over two months of unpaid wages [3]. - **Christine**: Founded in 1993, listed in 2012, delisted in December 2024, with debts to suppliers of 57 million CNY and 250 million CNY in consumer prepaid cards, resulting in the closure of over a thousand stores [3]. - **Duo Le Zhi Ri (China)**: Established in 2005, exited the Zhengzhou market in August 2024, closing multiple stores [3]. - **Slow City Cake**: Founded around 2012, closed all direct stores in Tianjin and Chongqing by November 2024, leaving only four franchise stores in Dezhou, Shandong [3]. - **Wu Li Tang**: Founded in 2021, all stores in Guangzhou closed by October 2024 due to cash flow issues [3]. - **ABC Cooking Studio**: Established in 2010 in China, closed 12 stores in mainland China by July 2024 [3]. - **Bread New Language**: Founded in 2000 in Singapore, closed 11 stores in Chengdu by July 2025 [3]. Industry Challenges - **Homogeneous Competition**: Many bakery brands have products that are easily replicated, leading to a saturated market where consumers opt for cheaper alternatives [4][5]. - **Retail Channel Pressure**: Supermarkets and retail chains have begun to dominate the bakery market, offering a wide range of products that compete directly with chain bakeries [6][7][8]. - **Shortened Product Lifecycles**: The lifespan of popular bakery items has decreased significantly, with trends shifting rapidly and leading to low repeat purchases [9][10]. Consumer Trends - **Consumption Downgrade**: The bakery market is experiencing polarization, with high-end brands struggling while affordable options gain popularity, reflecting a shift in consumer spending habits [11][12]. - **Emergence of Affordable Brands**: New brands targeting lower-tier cities with low-price strategies are becoming popular, catering to consumers seeking value [12]. Conclusion - The decline of many bakery brands can be attributed to a lack of product differentiation and quality, with successful brands focusing on long-term consumer engagement and product excellence [13][14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The baking industry in China is experiencing a significant downturn, with many once-popular brands rapidly closing stores and facing financial difficulties, indicating a shift from a booming market to a challenging environment [5][10][12]. Industry Overview - The baking market size is still growing, with a projected increase of 5.2% in 2024, reaching 110.5 billion yuan [17]. - In 2024, there were 103,000 new baking stores opened, but 95,000 closed, resulting in a net increase of only 8,000 stores [11]. Brand Performance - Notable brands like Huanniu Cake House and Qingdao Royal Meifu have closed multiple locations, reflecting a broader trend of closures among previously successful brands [4][8]. - The "bread first stock" Taoli Bread saw its revenue growth decline from 6.24% to -9.93% over four years, with net profit shrinking by 31.58% [13]. - Yuan Zu Co. reported a nearly 13% decline in revenue and a nearly 10% drop in net profit in 2024 [15]. Market Dynamics - The rapid expansion of baking brands led to oversaturation and increased competition, resulting in price wars and reduced profit margins, with gross margins dropping to 5%-10% [18]. - The industry faces challenges such as high raw material and labor costs, significant rental pressures, and frequent quality control issues [18]. Consumer Behavior - Consumer preferences are evolving, with a focus on taste (44.3%), freshness (43.2%), and nutrition (39.6%) being the top factors influencing purchasing decisions [25]. - The rise of tea beverage giants and supermarkets entering the baking space poses additional competition for traditional baking brands [20]. Future Outlook - The industry is undergoing a significant restructuring, with established brands struggling while new entrants like UH Youhe and One Bagel are attempting to differentiate themselves through quality and health-focused offerings [25][26]. - Successful navigation of the next five years will depend on product innovation, quality control, and strategic expansion [26].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising trend of "raw" products in the food industry, highlighting their appeal as fresh, high-quality, and unique offerings, particularly focusing on "raw" coconut drinks, chocolates, and breads [2][6][14]. Group 1: Popularity of "Raw" Products - The "raw" coconut latte from Luckin Coffee became a market sensation, selling 6.66 million cups in its first week and generating 1.26 billion yuan in revenue within eight months, with a total of 1.2 billion cups sold over four years [6]. - Other brands like Kudi, Guming, and Nayuki have followed suit, launching their own "raw" coconut beverages, with Kudi's raw coconut latte surpassing 100 million cups in sales [6][7]. - The dessert sector has also embraced "raw" coconut products, introducing various items such as raw coconut Swiss rolls and raw coconut blueberry cakes [6]. Group 2: Definition and Meaning of "Raw" - The term "raw" (なま nama) in Japanese culture signifies "unprocessed," "fresh," or "untreated," which is reflected in products like raw cream and raw beer [14]. - Raw chocolate products emphasize the absence of additives and preservatives, focusing on fresh ingredients and minimal processing [14][19]. - Raw bread, particularly Japanese-style raw toast, is made without eggs, using cream and butter instead, resulting in a soft, moist texture [17]. Group 3: Unique Characteristics of "Raw" Coconut - "Raw" coconut is a mixture of coconut water and coconut meat, often used in desserts and drinks, but may contain added sugars and fats, challenging the perception of being "pure" or "natural" [18][19]. - The marketing of "raw" products leverages the appeal of freshness and naturalness, even if the actual ingredients may not be entirely unprocessed [20][24]. Group 4: Naming and Marketing Strategies - The use of "raw" instead of "fresh" in product names conveys a sense of unprocessed quality and has become a common term in food culture, emphasizing the unique production methods and textures [24][25]. - The term "raw" is more concise and memorable, enhancing marketing effectiveness and consumer interest compared to longer phrases like "fresh chocolate" [26].