2025 年，中国的消费市场：数据在涨，但体感偏冷。 前 11 个月，全国社会消费品零售总额同比增长约 4.0%；人均可支配收入在涨，人均消费也在涨。从统计口径上看，消费在恢复。 但与此同时，居民的消费意愿并未同步释放。前11个月，住户存款增加 12.06 万亿元，储蓄增量依旧高企。央行2025前三个季度的调查显示，六成的人更 倾向于多存钱，只有两成明确表示愿意多消费。 钱不是没了，而是被按住了。 这种"钱在变多，但不太愿意花"的状态，与消费者信心的长期低位高度一致。2025 年以来，消费者信心指数始终在 89 点左右波动，显著低于 108.77 的长 期平均水平（经合组织数据）。 埃森哲在《中国消费者洞察》中，从心理层面给出了一个解释：与 2021 年相比，2025 年人们明显更看重"健康"和"财富"，而对事业、爱情、个人成长等 长期目标的关注度整体下降。消费的重心，正在从"向上够"，转向"先稳住"，从改善式消费，转向防御型消费。 在这样的背景下，单看总量数据已难以解释真实的消费变化。哪些增长是真实的？哪些回暖是被提前透支的？哪些变化反映了消费者心态和行为的长期迁 移？ 延续去年的方式，我们依然尝试用 10 ...

Core Insights - The event "Purchase in China: Shandong Consumer Goods Trade-in Relay Race (Lanshan Station)" will officially launch on November 28, focusing on consumer benefits and interactive experiences [1][3] - The event is organized by the Shandong Provincial Department of Commerce and the Linyi Municipal Government, aiming to enhance local consumption through policy incentives and special products [1][3] Group 1: Event Overview - The event theme is "Enjoying Linyi, Happy Shopping," and it will take place at the East Square of the No. 1 Gate of the China International Food City [1] - It will feature a combination of policy benefits, unique products, and interactive experiences for citizens [1][3] Group 2: Market Significance - Linyi Market is the largest market cluster in China, with 136 professional wholesale markets covering 27 categories and over 6 million products [3] - The market sees daily transactions involving over 30,000 people and 20,000 trucks, with an annual transaction volume ranking first among Chinese prefecture-level cities [3] Group 3: Consumer Benefits - The event will showcase special exhibition areas for quality products such as beverages, daily necessities, and instant retail items, while integrating trade-in policies for home appliances and digital products [3] - Financial institutions will offer exclusive subsidies to enhance consumer experience during the "renewal" shopping [3] Group 4: Future Prospects - This event is a significant step in implementing trade-in policies and showcasing Linyi's commercial heritage [3] - Future activities will involve more market participants to extend the consumer service chain, ensuring that policy benefits reach households and invigorate the local consumption market [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the transformation of new consumer demands into development opportunities, highlighting the significant role of consumption in driving economic circulation and supporting high-quality economic development [1][3] - The fitness industry in China has shown a compound annual growth rate of over 11% from 2019 to 2023, while the light food market is expected to exceed 320 billion yuan in 2024, with an annual growth rate of 41.7% [1] - The instant retail sector is rapidly evolving, with online retail sales reaching 74,295 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking an 8.5% year-on-year increase, indicating substantial growth potential [1] Group 2 - New consumption trends are characterized by two main features: the increasing granularity of consumer demand, leading to the emergence of long-tail markets, and the strengthening of the immediacy of consumption, which is becoming a new necessity [2] - The youth demographic (ages 14-35) in China, approximately 400 million strong, is driving diverse and personalized consumption needs, presenting opportunities for businesses that can accurately capture these trends [2] - The expansion of instant retail is moving from emergency needs to everyday consumption, with categories extending beyond food to include beverages, electronics, and travel services, creating new market opportunities [2] Group 3 - The government's initiatives to enhance consumption capacity, improve supply quality, and optimize the consumption environment are crucial for stimulating market vitality and promoting consumption upgrades [3] - Recent actions, such as the launch of special consumption initiatives and the implementation of "national subsidies," aim to boost consumer spending and improve purchasing power [3] - The focus on demand-driven strategies reflects a commitment to a people-centered value approach, aiming to convert new consumer demands into significant economic opportunities [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses the phenomenon of consumption downgrade in China following the lifting of mask mandates, highlighting the economic struggles faced by individuals and businesses after a prolonged period of lockdown [1][5]. Economic Trends - National retail sales in March showed a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, reaching 4.09 trillion yuan, indicating an overall recovery trend [2]. - However, major cities like Beijing and Shanghai experienced significant declines in retail sales, with Beijing down 9.9% and Shanghai estimated to drop 14.1% [4]. Population Dynamics - The decline in population in major cities, particularly among migrant workers, is reshaping the consumption landscape, with a 1% decrease in migrant population leading to a loss of approximately 30 billion yuan in consumption power for Beijing and 45 billion yuan for Shanghai [5]. Consumer Behavior - High-end brands are witnessing a decline in demand, with Porsche reducing prices by 20% and Rolex's green gold model seeing a price drop of 50%, reflecting a broader trend of consumption downgrade among the middle class [6]. - The average salary growth in Beijing's financial sector is only 1.3%, and 3.5% in the internet sector, contrasting sharply with previous years of double-digit growth [7]. Shifts in Spending Habits - The "coffee downgrade" phenomenon is emerging, where premium coffee brands are being replaced by convenience store options, indicating a shift in spending strategies among workers [8]. - Consumer confidence in Beijing has plummeted to a ten-year low of 90.1, while the national index remains above 105 [9]. Market Data - Key commercial areas are experiencing a 40% drop in restaurant turnover rates, luxury stores are seeing a 60% decrease in foot traffic, and shared bike usage has shortened by 15 minutes [10]. - Real estate prices in Beijing and Shanghai have dropped by 8.3%, exacerbating wealth anxiety and affecting middle-class consumption capabilities [10]. Emerging Economic Opportunities - New economic forms are beginning to emerge amidst the consumption downturn, with instant retail in Beijing growing by 9.4% and smart home appliance sales increasing by 23.1% [12]. - Policies promoting the replacement of old consumer goods have led to a 35.1% increase in home appliance sales and a 28.6% surge in 5G mobile device sales, indicating a shift towards quality and efficiency in consumption [13]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that major cities need to focus on retaining talent and attracting people through opportunities and quality services to revitalize the consumption market [14].