1月27日，岳阳林纸（600963）发布公告，子公司解除《温室气体自愿减排项目林业碳汇开发合作合同》。 据悉，2022年7月14日，岳阳林纸全资子公司诚通碳汇经营管理(湖南)有限责任公司(原名：湖南森海碳汇开发有限责任公司，简称"诚通碳汇")与西藏自治 区日喀则市人民政府、西藏国有资产管理有限公司签订了《温室气体自愿减排项目林业碳汇开发合作合同》，约定对日喀则市的森林/林地进行碳汇开 发。 1月24日，诚通碳汇收到《日喀则市人民政府关于解除西藏日喀则市〈温室气体自愿减排项目林业碳汇开发合作合同〉的函》，因西藏自治区关于林草碳 汇资源开发及交易政策调整，原三方签订的《合同》无法继续履行，经各方协商一致，同意终止该合同。 岳阳林纸称，此次合作的终止因西藏自治区关于林草碳汇资源开发及交易政策调整，公司及诚通碳汇无需对本次合作的终止承担赔偿及法律责任。 目前该项目完成了项目设计文件文本，产生少量人工及科研费用，终止事项不会对公司本年度生产经营和财务状况产生重大不利影响，对公司碳汇业务亦 未产生重大影响。 资料显示，岳阳林纸是国内大型文化纸、商品浆研发和生产企业之一，从事包括文化用纸、包装用纸、工业用纸、商品浆等在内的 ...

商品浆26年紧平衡，后续关注国内自给浆投产 供给：商品浆供给放缓，2025年后海外新增产能有限，2026年主要增量OKI二期工厂，预计实际商品浆 增量不足70万吨。自给浆仍在投放，2025-2026年，国内已确定的木浆新产能约660万吨(2025年434万 吨、2026年226万吨)，其中大部分为垂直一体化项目。截至2024年，全球商品阔叶浆产能约3614万吨， 产能利用率在90%上下较为健康。 需求：短期需求韧性，2025年1-11月全球阔叶浆发运量3053万吨，同比+7%，主要由中国需求(同比 +9.3%)拉动。中期结构性冲击，据Suzano预测，到2029年，因自给浆项目投产，全球商品阔叶浆需求将 比原本预期减少440万吨。国产自制浆占比上升，一定程度将在25-28年压制商品浆的产能利用率。 智通财经APP获悉，浙商证券发布研报称，美联储进入降息周期，一方面可能刺激需求，另一方面会削 弱巴西等浆企以本地货币计价的利润、从而浆企控制供给，驱动浆价进入上行通道。商品浆26年紧平 衡，后续关注国内自给浆投产。在"纸"环节利润触底、"浆"环节盈利扩张的背景下，自给浆比例高、成 本控制强的龙头盈利弹性大。 浙商证 ...

1月22日，岳阳林纸涨5.34%，截至发稿，报4.93元/股，成交2.57亿元，换手率3.04%，总市值86.65亿 元。 南方中证1000ETF（512100）成立日期2016年9月29日，最新规模789.96亿。今年以来收益8.6%，同类 排名1617/5542；近一年收益41.53%，同类排名1751/4256；成立以来收益24.2%。 南方中证1000ETF（512100）基金经理为崔蕾。 截至发稿，崔蕾累计任职时间7年78天，现任基金资产总规模1369.37亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 248.43%， 任职期间最差基金回报-15.93%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资料显示，岳阳林纸股份有限公司位于中国(湖南)自由贸易试验区岳阳片区长江大道西新港多式联运物 流园001号，成立日期2000年9月28日，上市日期2004年5月25日，公司主营业务涉及以林浆纸产业为基 础,进行产业链延伸,进入生态行业,从事林业勘查设计、林业碳 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp and paper industry is undergoing significant structural changes, with broadleaf pulp gradually seizing market share from softwood pulp, and the industry is facing challenges such as overcapacity and compressed downstream profits [50][52][59] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Pulp Mill Capacity: Is It in the Clearance Stage? - **Market Structure of Commodity Pulp**: Global commodity pulp capacity is dominated by broadleaf pulp, accounting for about 50%, followed by softwood pulp at about 20%. Suzano, APP, and UPM are major players [5] - **Pulp Production Cost Curve**: The average cash cost of BHKP is 289 dollars/ton for 70% of the capacity, and the CIF China break - even point (excluding logistics) is 580 - 600 dollars/ton for 70% - 75% of the capacity. For BSKP, the average cash cost is 500 dollars/ton for 41% of the capacity, and the CIF China break - even point (excluding logistics) is 445 - 465 dollars/ton for 85% - 90% of the capacity [8] - **Company Performance Analysis** - **SUZANO**: In 25Q1 - Q3, revenue was 37 billion reais, a year - on - year increase of 11%. Operating cost was 24.8 billion reais, a year - on - year increase of 33%. Operating profit was 7.5 billion reais, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. Net profit rebounded significantly mainly due to less derivative losses last year. Pulp revenue accounts for about 80% of the company's revenue [10][13] - **ARAUCO**: Q3 revenue was 1.5 billion dollars, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 1%. Gross profit was 350 million dollars, with a gross profit margin of 23%. The company has been unprofitable since 2025, and Q3 net profit after non - recurring items was underwater. Pulp business EBITDA Margin is about 26.5% [22] - **Metsa Group**: Sales revenue increased, but profit reached a new low. In Q3, the operating profit margin was - 12%. Pulp sales continued to rise [26] - **Mercer**: In 25Q3, revenue was 458 million dollars, flat quarter - on - quarter. Gross profit was negative for two consecutive quarters. Net profit after non - recurring items was - 81 million dollars, the lowest since 2023. There was no substantial production cut [29][31][33] - **UPM**: Revenue continued to decline, with about 2.3 billion euros in 25Q3. Q3 gross profit margin was only 0.3%. Net profit was 18 million euros, with a net profit margin of 0.8%. ROCE in Q3 was 2.4%, the lowest in nearly two years [37][39][42] - **Solvency Analysis**: Most pulp mill asset - liability ratios are below 60%. As of Q3 2025, Mercer's asset - liability ratio was about 68.1%, and Suzano's was 60.7%. Most pulp mills' EBIT interest coverage ratios are above 1, but Arauco's was 0.36 and Mercer's was - 2.37 as of Q3 [45] 3.2 What Structural Changes Are Taking Place Currently? - **Difference between Softwood and Broadleaf Pulp Prices**: The price difference between softwood and broadleaf pulp has been widening. Broadleaf pulp capacity growth is faster than that of softwood pulp, and broadleaf pulp is gradually seizing market share from softwood pulp. The global consumption of commodity pulp is 67.7 million tons, of which about 64.6% is broadleaf pulp [50][52][53] - **Consumption Situation in Europe**: European softwood pulp monthly consumption is stable at 20 - 25 tons, far from recovering to the pre - energy - crisis level. European broadleaf pulp monthly consumption is above 50 tons and has returned to normal [55] - **Apparent Consumption and Paper Formula Adjustment**: Softwood pulp monthly apparent consumption is maintained at 60 - 80 tons, while broadleaf pulp monthly apparent consumption has increased from about 140 tons to 180 tons. The proportion of toilet paper and white cardboard has increased to about 35%, and the proportion of cultural paper has decreased. The pulp formula of toilet paper and double - glue paper has been deeply adjusted [58] - **Profit and Capacity Expansion of Finished Paper**: Downstream profits are continuously compressed, and the apparent profit per ton of many finished papers has turned negative. From 2025 to 2026, a large amount of new paper - making capacity is planned to be put into production, mainly in toilet paper, cultural paper, and white cardboard [59] - **Industrial Chain Inventory**: As of November, European softwood pulp inventory was 27 days, and broadleaf pulp inventory was 26 days. Pulp mill softwood pulp inventory days reached 48 days, a historical high for the same period, and broadleaf pulp inventory days were 45 days, flat month - on - month. Domestic pulp inventory has started to decline, with a structural surplus of softwood pulp [62] - **Stable Growth of Broadleaf Pulp Consumption**: The natural demand for BHKP may increase to 459,000 tons, with a CAGR of + 2.1%. Emerging markets contribute the main increment, and toilet paper and specialty paper are the main drivers [64] 3.3 Future Development Trends of the Pulp and Paper Industry Chain - **Industry Status**: The cumulative revenue of the paper - making industry was 1.16 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%. The profit was 31.22 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.7%. The industry loss area exceeded 30%, and the cumulative loss of loss - making enterprises reached 16.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 10%, the highest in the same period in history. The SW paper - making industry index had a revenue of 125.7 billion yuan in 2025Q1 - Q3, a year - on - year decrease of 12%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of - 1.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 138%. The asset - liability ratio of listed paper enterprises exceeded 60%, and the current ratio and quick ratio fell below 1 [68][71] - **Integration of Forest, Pulp, and Paper**: Leading paper enterprises are implementing pulp - paper integration strategies, and some enterprises have a high degree of forest - pulp - paper integration. Domestic wood pulp consumption has increased from 9.5 million tons in 2015 to 26 million tons in 2024, and imported wood pulp has increased from 17.57 million tons to 25.95 million tons. The proportion of domestic wood pulp has increased from less than one - third to 50% [76] - **Integration Project Commissioning**: From 2025 to 2029, about 4.6 million tons of self - used BHKP capacity will be put into production in China. It is expected that the output of major wood - pulp - based finished papers will increase by 2.58 million tons in 2029, and self - used pulp will crowd out 2.66 million tons of commercial pulp demand for these paper types [80] - **Supply - Demand Changes of Commercial Pulp**: BHKP commercial pulp capacity will increase from 46.5 million tons to 50.5 million tons from 2024 to 2029E. Although demand continues to grow, capacity utilization will decline due to new capacity. The commissioning of integrated capacity is expected to reduce the demand for broadleaf commercial pulp by 4.4 million tons from 2024 to 2029 [83]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Yueyang Forest and Paper has shown fluctuations, with a recent increase of 2.12% but a year-to-date decline of 14.06%, indicating volatility in the market performance of the company [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of December 22, the stock price reached 4.34 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 40.37 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.54%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 7.628 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has experienced a 3.83% increase over the last five trading days, a slight 0.46% increase over the last 20 days, and a 5.24% decline over the last 60 days [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, the company reported a revenue of 6.568 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.42%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 162 million yuan, marking a significant increase of 270.65% [3]. Group 3: Business Overview - Yueyang Forest and Paper, established on September 28, 2000, and listed on May 25, 2004, operates primarily in the forestry and paper industry, with a business model that integrates ecological services [2]. - The company's revenue composition includes printing paper (49.33%), commodity pulp (22.61%), packaging paper (14.55%), biomass power generation (3.82%), industrial paper (3.66%), municipal landscaping (2.64%), and other segments [2]. Group 4: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders stood at 56,300, with an average of 31,227 circulating shares per person, indicating a slight decrease in shareholder count [3]. - The company has distributed a total of 981 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 302 million yuan distributed over the past three years [4].

Core Insights - The 2024 information disclosure evaluation results for listed companies show a significant decline in ratings compared to 2022, with Yueyang Lin Paper's rating dropping from A to C [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Yueyang Lin Paper's information disclosure rating decreased by two levels from A in 2022 to C in 2024 [1]. - The company is located in the Hunan Free Trade Zone and was established on September 28, 2000, with its stock listed on May 25, 2004 [3]. - The main business of Yueyang Lin Paper includes the paper industry and ecological sector, with a revenue composition of 49.33% from printing paper, 22.61% from commodity pulp, and 14.55% from packaging paper [3]. Group 2: Management Information - The company’s Secretary of the Board, Yi Lankai, has served since August 27, 2019, with a salary of 690,000 in 2022, 330,000 in 2023, and 700,000 in 2024 [4]. - Yi Lankai, born in September 1978, holds a bachelor's degree and has held various positions within the company, including Deputy General Manager and General Manager Assistant [4].

Group 1 - The company reported approximately 4.484 billion yuan in operating revenue and about 0.141 billion yuan in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 [1] - As a major domestic enterprise in cultural paper and commodity pulp, the company has a production capacity of 1.4 million tons per year for paper and 400,000 tons per year for commodity pulp [1] - The company emphasizes clean production and energy conservation, having been awarded the national "Green Factory" title [1] Group 2 - The company is expanding its market share in high-margin products such as special needle pulp and is accelerating the construction of fluff pulp and specialty pulp projects to cultivate new growth drivers [1] - In production management, the company is focusing on stabilizing and exceeding production targets, enhancing new product development, and maximizing system efficiency [2] - The company has signed contracts for carbon sink projects covering an area of 11.11 million acres and has a cumulative project reserve of 82.4679 million acres [2] Group 3 - The company is developing a standardized approach to carbon sink project development, including a manual and a smart management platform to enhance data collection and project management [2] - The company is actively exploring bio-based new materials and bioenergy to create new growth areas [2] - The company has made significant progress in project reserves and contract signings in the carbon sink business, with a steady advancement of market layout [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - Suzano announced a price increase of $20 per ton for commodity pulp in the Asian market for August, indicating a potential recovery in pulp and paper prices from current cyclical lows [1][4] - The report highlights the positive impact of policy changes in Beijing on the housing market, which may stimulate demand in the home furnishings sector [4] - The report emphasizes the ongoing trend of price recovery in the paper industry due to supply-demand imbalances and anti-competitive pressures [4][6] Summary by Sections Home Furnishings - Recent policy optimizations in Beijing allow families to purchase multiple homes outside the city center, which is expected to enhance market dynamics [4] - Major home furnishing companies are currently valued at historical lows, presenting potential investment opportunities [4] Paper Industry - As of August 8, 2025, the prices for various paper types are as follows: double glue paper at 4993.75 CNY/ton (unchanged), copper plate paper at 5320 CNY/ton (unchanged), white card paper at 3955 CNY/ton (down 35 CNY/ton), box board paper at 3463.4 CNY/ton (up 12.8 CNY/ton), and corrugated paper at 2582.5 CNY/ton (up 46.25 CNY/ton) [4][51] - The report notes that Suzano plans to reduce commodity pulp production by approximately 3.5% over the next year, which may further influence market prices [4][6] Consumer Goods - The launch of new health-focused sanitary products by brands like Pro indicates a shift towards higher quality and health-conscious consumer goods [6] - The report suggests that companies with strong IP strategies, such as Morning Glory, are likely to see improved performance in the coming quarters [6] Export Chain - In July, China's total exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, with significant growth in exports to ASEAN countries [6] - The report highlights the importance of companies with overseas supply chain capabilities in maintaining competitive advantages [6] Packaging - New regulations in Shanghai banning single-use plastic products are expected to drive demand for recyclable and biodegradable packaging solutions [6] - The report recommends companies involved in eco-friendly packaging, such as Hengxin Life and Jialian Technology, as potential investment opportunities [6] New Tobacco Products - The introduction of new electronic cigarette products in the UK is anticipated to boost market share for refillable devices [6] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the new tobacco sector that have strong partnerships and product offerings [6] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector has shown resilience, with notable increases in sales for major brands [6] - The report recommends monitoring leading companies in the apparel sector, such as Anta and Li Ning, for potential growth [6]