证券研究报告·公司点评报告·水泥 海螺水泥（600585） 2025 年中报点评：盈利如期改善，期待产业 政策进一步发力 增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 141,157 | 91,030 | 88,755 | 92,573 | 93,707 | | 同比（%） | 6.92 | (35.51) | (2.50) | 4.30 | 1.22 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 10,428 | 7,696 | 9,459 | 11,179 | 12,624 | | 同比（%） | (33.42) | (26.19) | 22.91 | 18.18 | 12.93 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.97 | 1.45 | 1.78 | 2.11 | 2.38 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 12.57 | 17.03 | 13.85 | 11.72 | 10.38 | [Table_Ta ...

投资要点 公司披露2025年中报，拟实施中期分红。（1）上半年实现营业收入412.92亿元，同比-9.4%，归母净利 润43.68 亿元，同比+31.3%。其中Q2 实现营业收入222.40 亿元，同比-8.2%，归母净利润25.57 亿元， 同比+40.3%。 （2）公司中期拟每股派发现金红利人民币0.24 元（含税），占2025 年上半年归属于上市公司股东的净 利润的29%。 水泥量平价升，外延布局持续推进，龙头地位巩固。（1）上半年公司水泥及熟料自产品销量1.26 亿 吨，同比-0.4%，降幅小于同期全国水泥产量，彰显稳固的龙头地位。我们测算单吨均价/毛利分别为 244 元/70 元，同比+4 元/+18 元，主要得益于行业供给自律强化以及Q1 行业需求表现超预期，水泥价 格在上半年旺季实现较大幅度推涨，而煤价下跌以及替代燃料应用比例的提升等因素推动单吨成本同 比-13 元至174 元，其中单吨燃料及动力成本96 元，同比-15 元，因而吨毛利显著改善。（2）骨料、商 混分别实现营业收入21.11、15.19 亿元，分别同比-4%、+29%，两者毛利贡献分别为9.26 亿元、1.73 亿 元，合计占公司 ...

海螺水泥（600585.SH） 优于大市 2025 中报点评：业绩同比改善，拟首次中期分红 业绩同比改善，并拟首次中期分红。2025H1 公司实现营收 412.9 亿元，同比 -9.4%，其中主营业务收入 348.4 亿元，同比+2.31%，归母净利润 43.7 亿元， 同比+31.3%，扣非归母净利润 42.0 亿元，同比+31.8%，EPS 为 0.83 元/股， 并拟中期分红 10 派 2.4 元（含税）；其中 Q2 单季度实现营收 222.4 亿元， 同比-8.2%，归母净利润 25.6 亿元，同比+40.3%，扣非归母净利润 25.4 亿 元，同比+39.6%，尽管市场需求不足，但受益水泥价格提升及煤炭成本下降 和持续降本控费，业绩同比改善。 水泥盈利改善，国内份额持续巩固，并加大海外拓展。2025H1 公司水泥熟料 自产品销量 1.26 亿吨，同比-0.35%，销量降幅显著好于行业（全国水泥产 量同比-4.3%），测算吨价格/吨成本/吨毛利分别为 244.2/174.2/70.0 元/ 吨，分别同比+4.4/-13.4/+17.8 元/吨；骨料和商混业务分别实现收入 21.1/15.2 亿元，同比 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 35.98 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 9.40%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -0.922 billion yuan, an increase of 72.99% year-on-year [2][4]. - The analysis indicates that the company's cement and clinker revenue per ton increased to 251 yuan, a rise of 13 yuan per ton year-on-year, while the cost per ton decreased to 203 yuan, a drop of 14 yuan per ton year-on-year, resulting in a gross profit of 39 yuan per ton, an increase of 18 yuan per ton year-on-year [6]. - The company is expected to achieve profits of 0.9 billion yuan and 1.4 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to price-earnings ratios of 46 and 29 times [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company sold 80.62 million tons of cement, a decrease of 14.63% year-on-year, and 9.9 million tons of clinker, a decrease of 14.59% year-on-year [12]. - The overall cement demand in the first half of 2025 was weak, with national infrastructure investment growing by 4.6% year-on-year, while real estate development investment fell by 11.2% [12]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, particularly in regions like Africa and Central Asia, where market conditions are more favorable compared to the domestic market [12]. - The report anticipates that supply-side reforms will provide price recovery elasticity, potentially improving production order and real capacity utilization [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 8.55 [6][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 35.98 billion in 1H25, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%, but achieved a net profit of RMB 0.572 billion in Q2, marking a significant turnaround from a loss of RMB 1.49 billion in the same period last year [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from the acceleration of key infrastructure projects and the ongoing "anti-involution" measures in the cement industry, which are anticipated to improve pricing and demand dynamics [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company's cement clinker sales decreased by 14.6% year-on-year to 90.52 million tons, which is a larger decline than the national average of 4.3% [2]. - The average price per ton of cement clinker was RMB 251, with a gross profit of RMB 48 per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of RMB 13 and RMB 27 respectively [2]. - The company achieved a gross profit margin of 39.9% in its overseas business, which is significantly higher than its domestic operations [3]. Market Dynamics - The national cement production in 1H25 was 815 million tons, down 4.3% year-on-year, while the average price increased by 5.4% [4]. - The government has emphasized the need to regulate excessive competition and production in the cement industry, which is expected to lead to improved pricing stability [4]. Future Outlook - The company has announced a dividend policy for 2025-2027, committing to distribute at least 50% of its distributable profits as cash dividends, which is consistent with previous years' payout ratios [3]. - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of RMB 0.25, 0.30, and 0.35 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5].

Core Viewpoint - In a challenging environment for the traditional building materials industry, Conch Cement (600585.SH) reported a "volume reduction and profit increase" for Q1 2025, achieving total revenue of 19.051 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.67%, while net profit reached 1.810 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.51% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, Conch Cement's total operating revenue was 19.051 billion yuan, down 10.67% year-on-year, but total profit reached 2.315 billion yuan, up 20.85% year-on-year [1] - In contrast, the 2024 annual report showed a total revenue of 91.030 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.51% year-on-year, and a net profit of 7.696 billion yuan, down 26.19% year-on-year [1] - The increase in net profit for Q1 2025 may be attributed to changes in the revenue structure of main and other businesses, although further confirmation with specific marketing data is needed [1] Group 2: Market Strategy and Operations - Conch Cement plans to enhance market analysis, reduce costs, and deepen industry chain operations, transitioning from single product sales to providing product solutions, thereby forming new competitive advantages [2] - The integrated sales model of "cement + aggregates + commercial concrete" has shown initial success, with revenue from aggregates and manufactured sand reaching 4.691 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%, and a gross margin of 46.91%, significantly surpassing traditional cement business [2] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - Conch Cement's stock price peaked at 51.53 yuan per share in 2020 but has since entered a downward trend due to changes in industry conditions, closing at 24.43 yuan per share on April 29, with a slight decline of 0.45% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the financial performance of Tianshan Materials Co., Ltd. in the first quarter of 2025, showing a significant decline in cement clinker sales but an increase in net profit compared to the same period last year [1][3]. - In Q1 2025, the company sold 37.7 million tons of cement clinker, 13.89 million cubic meters of ready-mixed concrete, and 20.46 million tons of aggregates, with a notable 15.38% decrease in cement clinker sales compared to the previous year [1]. - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 was 14.947 billion yuan, representing an 8.64% decrease year-on-year, while the net cash flow from operating activities fell by 56.39% [3]. Group 2 - Tianshan Materials reported a net profit of -1.494 billion yuan for Q1 2025, which is a 22.33% increase compared to the same period last year, marking the first instance of revenue decline coupled with profit increase in four years [3]. - The company’s main business includes the manufacturing and sales of cement, ready-mixed concrete, and aggregates, with cement revenue accounting for over 60% of total revenue [3]. - As of the end of the reporting period, Tianshan Materials had an aggregate production capacity of 230 million tons, with a production volume of 174 million tons and sales exceeding 130 million tons, generating approximately 4.756 billion yuan in sales revenue with a gross margin of 37.21% [3].