西部水泥(02233)尾盘涨近6%，截至发稿，涨5.49%，报2.89港元，成交额1.44亿港元。 消息面上，中国(陕西)——莫桑比克投资促进会近日在西安举办。中国西部水泥有限公司等公司与莫桑 比克经济部签约。西部水泥方面此前表示，未来将紧紧抓住非洲大发展的历史机遇，加快推进国际化发 展战略，逐步确立在非洲地区水泥建材行业的龙头地位；同时加大对中亚、东南亚等全球新兴国家市场 的开拓力度，致力于形成集水泥、商混、新材料、物流、贸易、装配式建筑等产业于一体的国际化建材 产业领军企业。 国泰海通此前发布研报称，2024年西部水泥海外单吨毛利高达288元/吨、远高于国内的42元/吨，公司 推进高毛利的海外布局战略坚定不移。2025年6月公司公告拟以16.5亿元出售新疆水泥资产，此举有助 于缓解债务压力，保障海外扩张进展(乌干达新建、刚果金收购、津巴布韦产线、莫桑比克北部产线、 远期安哥拉等项目)。 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 133.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, while net profit attributable to shareholders improved significantly to 2.96 billion from a loss of 0.68 billion in the same period last year [1] Cement Sector - Tianshan shares experienced a slight reduction in losses in Q3 2025, with a sales volume of 144.1 million tons, down 12.8% year-on-year, indicating a greater decline than the industry average [2] - The company's Q3 revenue was 18.96 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9%, while net profit was -0.26 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.6% [2] Engineering Sector - China National Materials International's Q3 2025 performance remained stable year-on-year, with a revenue of 32.998 billion, a 3.99% increase, and a net profit of 2.074 billion, a 0.68% increase [3] - The Q3 revenue was 11.322 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.48%, while net profit decreased by 1.18% to 0.653 billion [3] New Materials Sector - China National Materials Technology reported a net profit of 0.48 billion in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 235% [3] - The main business faced challenges due to credit impairment losses in blade business and a temporary decline in fiberglass prices, although prices began to rise in September [3] Gypsum Board Sector - BNBM's gypsum board business faced short-term pressure, with a revenue decline of 2.25% year-on-year for the first three quarters, and a Q3 revenue drop of 6.20% [4] - The company expects revenue growth in waterproof and paint businesses due to its state-owned enterprise background and resource advantages [4] - Q3 net profit was 0.657 billion, a year-on-year decline of 29.47% [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 133.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, while the attributable net profit was 2.96 billion, showing significant improvement compared to a loss of 0.68 billion in the same period last year. The estimated attributable net profit for Q3 2025 is 1.6 billion, up 20% from 1.33 billion in the same period last year [2][4]. Segment Summaries 1. **Cement Segment**: The company experienced a slight reduction in losses in Q3 2025. The national cement production for the first three quarters of 2025 was 1.259 billion tons, down 5.2% year-on-year. The company’s sales of cement and clinker were 144.1 million tons, a decrease of 12.8% year-on-year, indicating a more significant decline than the industry average. The single-quarter revenue for Q3 2025 was 18.96 billion, down 12.9% year-on-year, with a net profit of -0.26 billion, an increase of 22.6% year-on-year [5][6]. 2. **Engineering Segment**: The engineering business showed stable growth, with a total revenue of 32.998 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, up 3.99% year-on-year. The Q3 2025 single-quarter revenue was 11.322 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.48%, while the net profit was 0.653 billion, down 1.18% year-on-year [6]. 3. **New Materials Segment**: The new materials segment reported a net profit of 0.48 billion in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 235%. The main business saw some marginal changes, with a decrease in prices for fiberglass yarn. However, there was an improvement in the AI electronic cloth business due to increased demand and better yield rates, resulting in a net profit margin of approximately 5.7%, up 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [6][7]. 4. **North New Materials**: The gypsum board business faced short-term pressure, with a revenue decline of 2.25% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, and a 6.20% decline in Q3. Despite this, the waterproof business is expected to maintain growth due to the company's strong background and funding advantages [7].

Summary of Tianshan Cement Conference Call Company Overview - Tianshan Cement is a leading national cement company in China, benefiting from the industry's anti-competition trend and supply-side reform policies, particularly the requirement to address overproduction by the end of 2025 [2][3][12]. Key Points and Arguments Industry Dynamics - The cement industry has entered a downward phase since the peak in 2020-2021, with cumulative demand expected to decline by 23% by the end of 2024 [9]. - The demand structure is shifting, with infrastructure becoming the main driver of cement demand, replacing real estate [10][11]. - The industry faces challenges such as internal competition and the need for capacity reduction, with policies in place to enforce production limits [13][14][15]. Company Performance - Tianshan Cement's clinker sales have declined in line with the industry, with a compound annual growth rate of -10.8% from 2021 to 2024 [18]. - Despite a drop in sales price from 360 RMB to approximately 250 RMB, the company maintained a competitive average price of 247 RMB per ton, second only to Huaxin Cement [18]. - In 2025, the company achieved a significant turnaround in Q2, reporting a profit of 572 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of nearly 140% [19]. Financial Health - The company has a stable financial position, with a decreasing debt-to-asset ratio and low financing costs, averaging 2.61% in 2024 [22]. - Tianshan Cement has committed to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 50% from 2025 to 2027, ensuring shareholder returns [23]. Cost Management and Efficiency - The company is implementing cost reduction measures, including increasing self-sufficiency in limestone and optimizing management, resulting in a decrease in unit costs [21]. - The average unit cost decreased by 23 RMB in 2024, while the average price per ton increased by 13 RMB in the first half of 2025 [20]. Growth Strategies - Tianshan Cement is expanding its non-clinker business, which has increased from 12% in 2020 to 37% in the first half of 2025, enhancing the overall stability of its operations [8]. - The company is also developing its overseas business, with a compound annual growth rate of nearly 21% from 2021 to 2024, and a significant increase in revenue in 2025 due to new projects [27]. Additional Important Insights - The company’s valuation is currently at a historical low, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.5, compared to the industry average of 0.74 [3][28]. - The market perception is cautious, with concerns about continued demand decline and high costs, but the company’s management believes in the potential for recovery through cost control and policy execution [29][30]. - The company’s strong shareholder structure, with nearly 90% held by the top ten shareholders, provides it with valuation flexibility [6]. Conclusion - Tianshan Cement is positioned to benefit from industry reforms and has demonstrated resilience through effective cost management and strategic expansion. The company’s financial health and commitment to shareholder returns further enhance its attractiveness as an investment opportunity.

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by overseas expansion and increased sales volume [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.42 billion, a year-on-year increase of 46%, and a net profit of 750 million, up 93% [1] - The total sales volume reached 10.82 million tons, representing a 23.6% increase year-on-year, with aggregate sales of 2.23 million tons, up 39.4%, while commercial concrete sales decreased by 4.6% [1] - Domestic market sales volume declined by 8.3% to 6.65 million tons, but the average selling price increased by 4.1% to 280 per ton, resulting in a gross profit of 64 per ton [1] - Overseas sales volume surged by 178% to 4.17 million tons, with an average selling price of 486 per ton, leading to a gross profit of 181 per ton [1] Group 2: Market Segmentation - Revenue from the Chinese market was 3.07 billion, while overseas revenue accounted for 2.35 billion, contributing to an overall gross profit of 1.63 billion [1] - The company’s domestic gross profit was 680 million, while overseas gross profit reached 950 million [1] Group 3: Capacity Integration and Expansion - The company announced the acquisition of 1.2 million tons of cement capacity in Congo and the sale of all operations in Xinjiang to Conch Cement, totaling 3.5 million tons of cement capacity [2] - As of H1 2025, the domestic cement production capacity was 28.5 million tons, with 17 production lines, while overseas capacity was 13.6 million tons across 7 production lines [2] - The company expects to increase its overseas cement capacity to 14.8 million tons following the completion of the acquisition of the CILU cement plant in Congo [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - The African cement market presents significant growth potential and higher profitability compared to the domestic market, positioning it as a new blue ocean for domestic enterprises [2] - The company has multiple ongoing and planned projects in Africa, which are expected to contribute to substantial performance growth once operational [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, achieving revenue of 5.42 billion and a net profit of 750 million, representing year-on-year growth of 46% and 93% respectively [2][4]. - The company experienced substantial growth in overseas markets, with overall sales volume increasing by 23.6% to 10.82 million tons, while aggregate sales volume rose by 39.4% to 2.23 million tons [4]. - The company is actively pursuing capacity integration, including the acquisition of 1.2 million tons of cement capacity in Congo and the sale of its Xinjiang operations, totaling 3.5 million tons of cement capacity [4]. - The company anticipates continued expansion in overseas markets, particularly in Africa, which presents significant growth potential and higher profitability compared to domestic markets [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.42 billion, with 3.07 billion from the Chinese market and 2.35 billion from overseas markets. The overall gross profit was 1.63 billion, with domestic gross profit at 680 million and overseas gross profit at 950 million [4]. Sales Volume Analysis - Domestic sales volume decreased by 8.3% to 6.65 million tons, while the average selling price increased by 4.1% to 280 per ton, resulting in a gross profit of 64 per ton. In contrast, overseas sales volume surged by 178% to 4.17 million tons, with an average selling price of 486 per ton, leading to a gross profit of 181 per ton [4]. Capacity Expansion - The company has a total domestic cement production capacity of 28.5 million tons across 17 production lines, with significant capacities in Shaanxi, Guizhou, and Sichuan. The overseas production capacity stands at 13.6 million tons across 7 production lines, with ongoing projects expected to increase this capacity to 14.8 million tons [4]. Future Outlook - The company projects earnings of 1.4 billion and 1.9 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 9 and 7 times, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][7] Core Views - The company reported a significant improvement in profitability, with a notable increase in net profit by 31.34% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, despite a revenue decline of 9.38% [4] - The company's main business revenue showed positive growth, with a 2.31% increase in main business revenue, even as overall revenue decreased [4] - The company is expected to maintain a leading position in profitability within the industry, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 95.11 billion, 102.96 billion, and 113.99 billion respectively [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 412.92 billion yuan, down 9.38% year-on-year, while net profit reached 43.68 billion yuan, up 31.34% [4] - The second quarter saw revenue of 222.40 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.24% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 40.26% to 25.57 billion yuan [4] Sales and Market Position - The company’s sales volume for cement clinker was 126 million tons, a decline of 0.35%, which outperformed the industry average [4] - The company’s main business segments, including cement clinker, aggregates, and commercial concrete, generated revenues of 306.58 billion, 21.12 billion, and 15.19 billion yuan respectively [4] Profitability and Cost Management - The company experienced a significant improvement in profitability due to rising sales prices and declining costs, with gross profit margin increasing from 21.8% to 28.7% [4] - The average revenue per ton of cement clinker increased by 4 yuan to 244 yuan, while the cost per ton decreased by 14 yuan to 174 yuan [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its business through new projects and acquisitions, including a successful contract in Xinjiang and ongoing overseas projects that have enhanced its market competitiveness [4] - The company has committed to a shareholder return plan, with a mid-term dividend of 0.24 yuan per share, totaling 12.66 billion yuan, representing 29% of the net profit for the first half of the year [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company's profitability is expected to improve as industry policies are anticipated to strengthen, leading to a continued recovery in the cement sector [3][9] - The company has demonstrated cost leadership during downturns and is expanding its operations, providing new growth momentum [9] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 41.292 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.368 billion yuan, an increase of 31.3% [8] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.24 yuan per share, accounting for 29% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 [8] - The company's cement and clinker sales volume was 126 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.4% year-on-year, indicating a stable market position [8] - The average selling price per ton of cement increased by 4 yuan to 244 yuan, with gross profit per ton rising by 18 yuan to 70 yuan, benefiting from industry self-discipline and improved demand [8] - The company's gross margin for Q2 was 27.2%, reflecting a significant improvement compared to previous quarters [8] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - The operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 was 8.287 billion yuan, an increase of 1.416 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to improved profitability and reduced costs [3] - Capital expenditures were reduced by 19% year-on-year to approximately 62.1 billion yuan, indicating a continued contraction in capital spending [3] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the cement industry is likely to continue its recovery due to strengthened self-discipline and favorable policies, with expectations for improved profitability [9] - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in demand and price stability in the second half of the year [9]

Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, with a total revenue of 41.292 billion RMB, down 9.4% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 31.3% to 4.368 billion RMB [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.24 RMB per share, which accounts for 29% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's cement and clinker sales volume reached 126 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.4% year-on-year, indicating a stable leading position in the market [2] - The average price per ton of cement increased by 4 RMB to 244 RMB, while the gross profit per ton rose by 18 RMB to 70 RMB, benefiting from improved industry supply discipline and strong demand in Q1 [2] - The gross margin for Q2 was 27.2%, an increase of 4.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 7.2 percentage points year-on-year, indicating significant improvement in profitability [2][3] Group 2: Cost Management and Cash Flow - The company’s operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 was 8.287 billion RMB, an increase of 1.416 billion RMB year-on-year, driven by improved profitability and reduced costs of raw materials [3] - Capital expenditures decreased by 28.9% year-on-year to 4.063 billion RMB, reflecting a continued reduction in capital spending [3] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The cement industry has seen a significant rebound in profitability since Q4 2024, driven by enhanced industry self-discipline, although demand fluctuations and downward pressures still affect price stability [4] - The company is expected to benefit from upcoming industry policies aimed at optimizing supply-side dynamics, which may lead to improved profitability [4] - The forecast for the company's net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards due to lower-than-expected demand in Q2, with projected profits of 9.46 billion RMB, 11.18 billion RMB, and 12.62 billion RMB respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][34]. Core Views - The company has shown year-on-year improvement in performance, with a proposal for its first interim dividend. In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 41.29 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%, while the main business revenue increased by 2.31% to 34.84 billion. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.37 billion, up 31.3% year-on-year, and the earnings per share (EPS) was 0.83 yuan [1][8]. - Despite insufficient market demand, the company benefited from rising cement prices, decreasing coal costs, and ongoing cost control measures, leading to improved year-on-year performance [1][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 41.29 billion, with a main business revenue of 34.84 billion, and a net profit of 4.37 billion, reflecting a 31.3% increase year-on-year. The EPS was 0.83 yuan, and the company proposed a mid-term dividend of 2.4 yuan per 10 shares [1][8]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 22.24 billion, a decrease of 8.2% year-on-year, but the net profit rose by 40.3% to 2.56 billion [1][8]. Market Position and Sales - The company's self-produced cement clinker sales reached 126 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.35% year-on-year, outperforming the industry average decline of 4.3%. The average price per ton was 244.2 yuan, with a cost of 174.2 yuan, resulting in a gross profit of 70.0 yuan per ton [2][14]. - The company has maintained its domestic market share while expanding its overseas operations, achieving overseas revenue of 2.46 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [2][14]. Cash Flow and Investments - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 8.29 billion, an increase of 20.6% year-on-year, with total cash and financial assets amounting to 63.84 billion [3][29]. - The company is actively pursuing project acquisitions and construction, including the acquisition of Xinjiang Yaobai and ongoing overseas expansion projects [3][29]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing strategic projects that may enhance infrastructure investment and improve supply-demand dynamics. The projected EPS for 2025-2027 is 1.85, 1.08, and 2.25 yuan per share, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 8.4, 7.6, and 7.1 [34].