天山股份 20250925 摘要 天山股份作为全国性水泥龙头，受益于水泥行业反内卷趋势和供给侧改 革政策，尤其是在 2025 年底前需补齐超产部分的要求下，公司有望优 先受益于供给格局改善和价格协同机制的改善。 公司通过拓展水泥外产业链一体化业务（如商混和骨料）及海外业务， 构建新的增长曲线，有效分散单一区域市场波动带来的影响，增强整体 业务的稳定性和抗风险能力。 尽管 2021-2024 年水泥熟料销量随行业下行，但公司坚持"价本利" 策略，吨均价高于同业水平，且 2025 年二季度单季扭亏为盈，盈利能 力显著改善，显示出较强的经营韧性。 公司持续推进降本增效措施，包括提高石灰石自给率、增加替代燃料使 用和优化管理，使得单吨成本逆势下降，吨毛利大幅上升，进一步提升 盈利空间。 公司财务状况稳健，资产负债率稳中有降，融资成本较低，经营现金流 入健康，资本开支连续减少，同时承诺 2025-2027 年分红率不低于 50%，确保股东回报。 Q&A 天山股份作为国内水泥行业的龙头企业，其基本面和未来发展前景如何？ 天山股份是国内水泥熟料产能规模最大的企业，具有全国性布局和完整产业链。 从基本面来看，短期内公司在成本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by overseas expansion and increased sales volume [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.42 billion, a year-on-year increase of 46%, and a net profit of 750 million, up 93% [1] - The total sales volume reached 10.82 million tons, representing a 23.6% increase year-on-year, with aggregate sales of 2.23 million tons, up 39.4%, while commercial concrete sales decreased by 4.6% [1] - Domestic market sales volume declined by 8.3% to 6.65 million tons, but the average selling price increased by 4.1% to 280 per ton, resulting in a gross profit of 64 per ton [1] - Overseas sales volume surged by 178% to 4.17 million tons, with an average selling price of 486 per ton, leading to a gross profit of 181 per ton [1] Group 2: Market Segmentation - Revenue from the Chinese market was 3.07 billion, while overseas revenue accounted for 2.35 billion, contributing to an overall gross profit of 1.63 billion [1] - The company’s domestic gross profit was 680 million, while overseas gross profit reached 950 million [1] Group 3: Capacity Integration and Expansion - The company announced the acquisition of 1.2 million tons of cement capacity in Congo and the sale of all operations in Xinjiang to Conch Cement, totaling 3.5 million tons of cement capacity [2] - As of H1 2025, the domestic cement production capacity was 28.5 million tons, with 17 production lines, while overseas capacity was 13.6 million tons across 7 production lines [2] - The company expects to increase its overseas cement capacity to 14.8 million tons following the completion of the acquisition of the CILU cement plant in Congo [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - The African cement market presents significant growth potential and higher profitability compared to the domestic market, positioning it as a new blue ocean for domestic enterprises [2] - The company has multiple ongoing and planned projects in Africa, which are expected to contribute to substantial performance growth once operational [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, achieving revenue of 5.42 billion and a net profit of 750 million, representing year-on-year growth of 46% and 93% respectively [2][4]. - The company experienced substantial growth in overseas markets, with overall sales volume increasing by 23.6% to 10.82 million tons, while aggregate sales volume rose by 39.4% to 2.23 million tons [4]. - The company is actively pursuing capacity integration, including the acquisition of 1.2 million tons of cement capacity in Congo and the sale of its Xinjiang operations, totaling 3.5 million tons of cement capacity [4]. - The company anticipates continued expansion in overseas markets, particularly in Africa, which presents significant growth potential and higher profitability compared to domestic markets [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.42 billion, with 3.07 billion from the Chinese market and 2.35 billion from overseas markets. The overall gross profit was 1.63 billion, with domestic gross profit at 680 million and overseas gross profit at 950 million [4]. Sales Volume Analysis - Domestic sales volume decreased by 8.3% to 6.65 million tons, while the average selling price increased by 4.1% to 280 per ton, resulting in a gross profit of 64 per ton. In contrast, overseas sales volume surged by 178% to 4.17 million tons, with an average selling price of 486 per ton, leading to a gross profit of 181 per ton [4]. Capacity Expansion - The company has a total domestic cement production capacity of 28.5 million tons across 17 production lines, with significant capacities in Shaanxi, Guizhou, and Sichuan. The overseas production capacity stands at 13.6 million tons across 7 production lines, with ongoing projects expected to increase this capacity to 14.8 million tons [4]. Future Outlook - The company projects earnings of 1.4 billion and 1.9 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 9 and 7 times, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][7] Core Views - The company reported a significant improvement in profitability, with a notable increase in net profit by 31.34% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, despite a revenue decline of 9.38% [4] - The company's main business revenue showed positive growth, with a 2.31% increase in main business revenue, even as overall revenue decreased [4] - The company is expected to maintain a leading position in profitability within the industry, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 95.11 billion, 102.96 billion, and 113.99 billion respectively [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 412.92 billion yuan, down 9.38% year-on-year, while net profit reached 43.68 billion yuan, up 31.34% [4] - The second quarter saw revenue of 222.40 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.24% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 40.26% to 25.57 billion yuan [4] Sales and Market Position - The company’s sales volume for cement clinker was 126 million tons, a decline of 0.35%, which outperformed the industry average [4] - The company’s main business segments, including cement clinker, aggregates, and commercial concrete, generated revenues of 306.58 billion, 21.12 billion, and 15.19 billion yuan respectively [4] Profitability and Cost Management - The company experienced a significant improvement in profitability due to rising sales prices and declining costs, with gross profit margin increasing from 21.8% to 28.7% [4] - The average revenue per ton of cement clinker increased by 4 yuan to 244 yuan, while the cost per ton decreased by 14 yuan to 174 yuan [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its business through new projects and acquisitions, including a successful contract in Xinjiang and ongoing overseas projects that have enhanced its market competitiveness [4] - The company has committed to a shareholder return plan, with a mid-term dividend of 0.24 yuan per share, totaling 12.66 billion yuan, representing 29% of the net profit for the first half of the year [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company's profitability is expected to improve as industry policies are anticipated to strengthen, leading to a continued recovery in the cement sector [3][9] - The company has demonstrated cost leadership during downturns and is expanding its operations, providing new growth momentum [9] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 41.292 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.368 billion yuan, an increase of 31.3% [8] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.24 yuan per share, accounting for 29% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 [8] - The company's cement and clinker sales volume was 126 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.4% year-on-year, indicating a stable market position [8] - The average selling price per ton of cement increased by 4 yuan to 244 yuan, with gross profit per ton rising by 18 yuan to 70 yuan, benefiting from industry self-discipline and improved demand [8] - The company's gross margin for Q2 was 27.2%, reflecting a significant improvement compared to previous quarters [8] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - The operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 was 8.287 billion yuan, an increase of 1.416 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to improved profitability and reduced costs [3] - Capital expenditures were reduced by 19% year-on-year to approximately 62.1 billion yuan, indicating a continued contraction in capital spending [3] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the cement industry is likely to continue its recovery due to strengthened self-discipline and favorable policies, with expectations for improved profitability [9] - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in demand and price stability in the second half of the year [9]

Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, with a total revenue of 41.292 billion RMB, down 9.4% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 31.3% to 4.368 billion RMB [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.24 RMB per share, which accounts for 29% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's cement and clinker sales volume reached 126 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.4% year-on-year, indicating a stable leading position in the market [2] - The average price per ton of cement increased by 4 RMB to 244 RMB, while the gross profit per ton rose by 18 RMB to 70 RMB, benefiting from improved industry supply discipline and strong demand in Q1 [2] - The gross margin for Q2 was 27.2%, an increase of 4.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 7.2 percentage points year-on-year, indicating significant improvement in profitability [2][3] Group 2: Cost Management and Cash Flow - The company’s operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 was 8.287 billion RMB, an increase of 1.416 billion RMB year-on-year, driven by improved profitability and reduced costs of raw materials [3] - Capital expenditures decreased by 28.9% year-on-year to 4.063 billion RMB, reflecting a continued reduction in capital spending [3] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The cement industry has seen a significant rebound in profitability since Q4 2024, driven by enhanced industry self-discipline, although demand fluctuations and downward pressures still affect price stability [4] - The company is expected to benefit from upcoming industry policies aimed at optimizing supply-side dynamics, which may lead to improved profitability [4] - The forecast for the company's net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards due to lower-than-expected demand in Q2, with projected profits of 9.46 billion RMB, 11.18 billion RMB, and 12.62 billion RMB respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][34]. Core Views - The company has shown year-on-year improvement in performance, with a proposal for its first interim dividend. In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 41.29 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%, while the main business revenue increased by 2.31% to 34.84 billion. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.37 billion, up 31.3% year-on-year, and the earnings per share (EPS) was 0.83 yuan [1][8]. - Despite insufficient market demand, the company benefited from rising cement prices, decreasing coal costs, and ongoing cost control measures, leading to improved year-on-year performance [1][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 41.29 billion, with a main business revenue of 34.84 billion, and a net profit of 4.37 billion, reflecting a 31.3% increase year-on-year. The EPS was 0.83 yuan, and the company proposed a mid-term dividend of 2.4 yuan per 10 shares [1][8]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 22.24 billion, a decrease of 8.2% year-on-year, but the net profit rose by 40.3% to 2.56 billion [1][8]. Market Position and Sales - The company's self-produced cement clinker sales reached 126 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.35% year-on-year, outperforming the industry average decline of 4.3%. The average price per ton was 244.2 yuan, with a cost of 174.2 yuan, resulting in a gross profit of 70.0 yuan per ton [2][14]. - The company has maintained its domestic market share while expanding its overseas operations, achieving overseas revenue of 2.46 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [2][14]. Cash Flow and Investments - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 8.29 billion, an increase of 20.6% year-on-year, with total cash and financial assets amounting to 63.84 billion [3][29]. - The company is actively pursuing project acquisitions and construction, including the acquisition of Xinjiang Yaobai and ongoing overseas expansion projects [3][29]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing strategic projects that may enhance infrastructure investment and improve supply-demand dynamics. The projected EPS for 2025-2027 is 1.85, 1.08, and 2.25 yuan per share, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 8.4, 7.6, and 7.1 [34].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 35.98 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 9.40%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -0.922 billion yuan, an increase of 72.99% year-on-year [2][4]. - The analysis indicates that the company's cement and clinker revenue per ton increased to 251 yuan, a rise of 13 yuan per ton year-on-year, while the cost per ton decreased to 203 yuan, a drop of 14 yuan per ton year-on-year, resulting in a gross profit of 39 yuan per ton, an increase of 18 yuan per ton year-on-year [6]. - The company is expected to achieve profits of 0.9 billion yuan and 1.4 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to price-earnings ratios of 46 and 29 times [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company sold 80.62 million tons of cement, a decrease of 14.63% year-on-year, and 9.9 million tons of clinker, a decrease of 14.59% year-on-year [12]. - The overall cement demand in the first half of 2025 was weak, with national infrastructure investment growing by 4.6% year-on-year, while real estate development investment fell by 11.2% [12]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, particularly in regions like Africa and Central Asia, where market conditions are more favorable compared to the domestic market [12]. - The report anticipates that supply-side reforms will provide price recovery elasticity, potentially improving production order and real capacity utilization [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 8.55 [6][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 35.98 billion in 1H25, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%, but achieved a net profit of RMB 0.572 billion in Q2, marking a significant turnaround from a loss of RMB 1.49 billion in the same period last year [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from the acceleration of key infrastructure projects and the ongoing "anti-involution" measures in the cement industry, which are anticipated to improve pricing and demand dynamics [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company's cement clinker sales decreased by 14.6% year-on-year to 90.52 million tons, which is a larger decline than the national average of 4.3% [2]. - The average price per ton of cement clinker was RMB 251, with a gross profit of RMB 48 per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of RMB 13 and RMB 27 respectively [2]. - The company achieved a gross profit margin of 39.9% in its overseas business, which is significantly higher than its domestic operations [3]. Market Dynamics - The national cement production in 1H25 was 815 million tons, down 4.3% year-on-year, while the average price increased by 5.4% [4]. - The government has emphasized the need to regulate excessive competition and production in the cement industry, which is expected to lead to improved pricing stability [4]. Future Outlook - The company has announced a dividend policy for 2025-2027, committing to distribute at least 50% of its distributable profits as cash dividends, which is consistent with previous years' payout ratios [3]. - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of RMB 0.25, 0.30, and 0.35 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5].

Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, Tianshan Co. reported operating revenue of 35.98 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4% [1] - The company experienced a net loss of 0.922 billion, which represents a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [1] - Cement sales reached 80.62 million tons, down 14.63% year-on-year, while clinker sales were 9.9 million tons, down 14.59% [1] Cost Management - Tianshan Co. implemented significant cost control measures, benefiting from a decrease in coal prices, which led to a substantial reduction in production costs for cement and commercial concrete [1] - The company reported improvements in cement sales prices and gross profit margins year-on-year due to price recovery and cost optimization efforts [1] Industry Context - The national cement market demand continued to shrink in the first half of the year, primarily due to a deep adjustment in the real estate market [2] - The commercial concrete industry saw a total profit decline of 26.4% compared to the previous year, although the decline rate narrowed compared to earlier months [2] - Tianshan Co. acknowledged the complex competitive landscape and the impact of declining water demand on operational performance [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to deepen supply-side structural reforms and promote healthy development within the industry [2] - Tianshan Co. aims to enhance its e-commerce platform "Jucaitong" and develop special cement products to seek new growth opportunities [2] - The company will optimize procurement strategies and strengthen supply chain management to address challenges related to raw material price fluctuations and fixed cost increases [3] Market Outlook - The industry is expected to face continued downward pressure on demand, with profitability largely dependent on supply changes and the execution of supply-side policies [3] - If companies adhere to production capacity regulations, there is potential for a significant reduction in supply and an increase in capacity utilization rates from 53% to around 70% [3]