——2026 年全国碳市场年度行情展望 2025 年 12 月 17 日 全国碳市场：此消彼长，余震仍存 唐惠珽 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021216 tanghuiting@gtht.com 报告导读： 期 货 研 究 所 发电行业：拆解宏观减排目标，锚定基准值下调路径。宏观减排目标将为发电行业配额基准值下调路径提供重 要参考依据。本文将以 2035 年排放目标为约束，对未来 5 年中国发电行业配额基准值下调路径进行推算：中国存在 尽早实现碳达峰的政策意愿，若 2025 年作为目标达峰年份，则 2026 至 2035 年期间二氧化碳排放的年均减排速率需 达到约 0.7%~1.0%。在发电量中性增长情景下，2026 年发电排放强度需较 2025 年至少下降约 1.1%~1.4%。预估 2025 年度发电行业配额缺口率可能扩大至约 1.1%~1.4%，对应的年度缺口约 0.6~0.7 亿吨。 CCER：供给能力继续扩张，削弱碳价上行驱动。基于当前的项目登记和减排量登记进展，本文预估 2026 年 CCER 将新增供应 1500~2250 万吨 ，叠加 2025 年约 1000 万吨的市场结余量，2026 年 C ...

江西瑞昌，一台台发电机组矗立在群山之上。近年来，瑞 昌市大力发展绿色清洁能源，促进节能降耗、低碳减排。 魏东升摄（人民图片） 刚闭幕不久的第十五届全国运动会不仅是体育的盛会，也是一场由大型赛事带动的绿色实践。场馆使用 绿色低碳设计与材料，无废理念贯穿赛事全程，中国南方航空公司专门推出"低碳全运会"主题航班，使 用国家核证自愿减排量（CCER）抵消当次航班碳排放，实现绿色飞行。 货轮在湖北宜昌加注液化天然气。加气站建成投运，为减 少长江流域碳排放提供了条件。 魏启扬摄（人民图片） 无人驾驶矿卡行驶在海南定安县大岭花岗岩矿项目现场。 该项目建立全过程碳排放管控体系，助力绿色矿山向数字 化、智能化、无人化转型升级。 新华社记者 张丽芸摄 为何CCER可以抵消碳排放？这里不得不提到中国的碳市场。在这样一个市场里，碳减排量可以像日常 商品一样被交易。 为何要加快建设碳市场 从启动到现在，中国的碳市场不断完善。今年8月底，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《关于推进 绿色低碳转型加强全国碳市场建设的意见》（以下简称《意见》），碳市场建设迈入了新阶段。 为何要加快建设这样一个市场？ 这要从我们面临的形势说起。 2024年全球 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent guidelines issued by the central government regarding the establishment and expansion of a national carbon market, emphasizing the transition from intensity control to total volume control and the shift from free to paid quotas [3][5][8]. Summary by Sections Carbon Market Development - The central government has outlined a clear roadmap for building a national carbon market, aiming for comprehensive coverage of major industrial sectors by 2027 and a fully established trading market by 2030 [3][5]. - The guidelines aim to clarify the role of various participants in the carbon market, addressing previous uncertainties [3]. Transition from Intensity to Total Volume Control - The current system is based on intensity control with free quota distribution linked to production levels, but this will shift to total volume control during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans [5][6]. - By 2027, industries with stable carbon emissions will be prioritized for total volume control, with a gradual increase in the proportion of paid quotas [5][6]. Carbon Pricing and Market Dynamics - The national carbon market has seen a price fluctuation, with the closing price at 69.69 yuan per ton, down from an average of 72 yuan per ton [10]. - The carbon price has risen from an initial 48 yuan per ton to a peak of 105 yuan per ton, indicating a trend towards higher prices as the market expands [10]. International Cooperation and Market Integration - The guidelines encourage participation in international carbon market mechanisms and the establishment of standards for global cooperation [12][13]. - There is a potential for Chinese companies to leverage their carbon market experiences in international projects, enhancing China's influence in global carbon markets [12]. Future Directions - The guidelines suggest a need for more high-quality carbon credits and a gradual opening of the market to financial institutions to optimize resource allocation [11][12]. - The focus will be on ensuring that companies do not face excessive costs while promoting effective actions towards emission reduction [11].

Core Viewpoint - The carbon credit system under the Paris Agreement facilitates the cross-border flow of climate funds, achieving carbon reduction goals at lower costs and higher efficiency [1][11]. Development of China's Carbon Market - China's carbon market has evolved from the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) to a comprehensive system that includes mandatory and voluntary trading markets, ensuring a healthy and orderly operation [4][5]. - The voluntary carbon market has experienced fluctuations, with significant developments starting from 2012, including the establishment of the national certified voluntary emission reduction (CCER) program [4][5]. - The national carbon market has seen a significant expansion, with the launch of the national power quota market in 2021 and the voluntary emission reduction trading system in 2023 [5][6]. Market Performance and Mechanisms - In 2024, the national carbon market's trading volume reached 189 million tons, with a transaction value of 18.114 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception [6][7]. - The trading price in the carbon market has shown a steady increase, with the closing price in the fourth quarter stabilizing between 97 yuan/ton and 106 yuan/ton [7]. - The market's trading activity has significantly increased, with a turnover rate of 3.5% in 2024, compared to approximately 2.0% in previous years [6][7]. Policy Recommendations for Market Development - To enhance market vitality, it is essential to diversify trading products, participants, and methods, encouraging participation from financial institutions and individual investors [9][18]. - Implementing a paid quota usage mechanism, similar to the EU carbon market, is recommended to internalize costs and improve price discovery [9][18]. - Strengthening environmental information disclosure and building a robust integrity system are crucial for ensuring data quality and market credibility [10][18]. International Cooperation and Market Expansion - Attracting participation from countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative can enhance the quality and openness of China's carbon market, promoting international carbon asset transactions settled in yuan [1][11]. - Active participation in international rule-making is necessary to establish a legal, international, and modern carbon market, increasing its global attractiveness and influence [1][11].