专题：2026中国首席经济学家论坛年会 他指出，由此将带来两大重要市场机遇：一是碳市场扩围；二是电力市场的分化，绿电与非绿电将形成 明确的价值差异，推动绿色能源的市场化定价与应用。碳核算相关领域的发展机遇值得重点关注。 新浪声明：所有会议实录均为现场速记整理，未经演讲者审阅，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目 的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。 责任编辑：王翔 专题：2026中国首席经济学家论坛年会 2026年中国首席经济学家论坛年会于1月10-11日在上海举行，主题为"棋至中局：承前启后 建设强国"。 兴业银行首席经济学家鲁政委出席并发言。 鲁政委表示，未来五年我国减碳将逐步形成六碳的治理机制，即地方碳考核、地方碳管控、企业碳管 理、项目碳评价、产品碳足迹以及国际碳协调。这一切的基础是碳核算，只有明确碳核算的模型、规 范、监测、数据、审计、认证等标准，才能精准把握达峰峰值、制定减排路径，也才能在国际贸易中开 展有效协调。 2026年中国首席经济学家论坛年会于1月10-11日在上海举行，主题为"棋至中局：承前启后 建设强国"。 兴业银行首席经济学家鲁政委出席并发言。 鲁政委表示，未来五年我国减碳将逐步形成 ...

Group 1: Carbon Market Expansion - The national carbon market is expanding in an orderly manner, with the inclusion of steel, cement, and aluminum industries, covering over 60% of national CO2 emissions [1] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment plans to include more industries such as chemicals, aviation, and paper by 2027, aiming for comprehensive coverage of major industrial emissions [1] - The expansion of the carbon market is expected to drive companies to innovate and invest in low-carbon technologies, providing technical and financial support for green transformation [1] Group 2: Corporate Responses and Opportunities - Companies like Shougang Group view the inclusion in the carbon market as a long-term driver for technological innovation and energy structure optimization [2] - Shougang plans to build new electric furnaces to achieve over 70% carbon reduction in steel production and is focusing on developing a low-carbon product system [2] - The carbon market's tightening will push high-emission companies to adopt advanced energy-saving technologies to reduce compliance costs [2] Group 3: Technological Innovations and Market Trends - Green low-carbon technologies are experiencing unprecedented market opportunities, with a focus on multi-energy collaboration and large-scale applications [3] - Companies are developing solutions like geothermal heating and integrated renewable energy systems to provide clean energy for high-consumption industries [3] - Energy efficiency technologies are becoming active innovation sectors, with companies implementing measures to achieve near-zero carbon emissions [4] Group 4: Challenges and Barriers - Despite the promising outlook for green technologies, there are significant barriers to large-scale application, primarily related to technology maturity and high initial costs [5] - The lack of a mature market and business models, along with insufficient carbon pricing, hampers investment in green technologies [5] - Recommendations include establishing national technology projects and integrating various funding sources to support the scaling of green technologies [5]

Core Points - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released a roadmap for expanding the national carbon market, aiming to cover major industrial sectors by 2027 [1][2] - The national carbon market currently includes approximately 3,700 key emission units, covering around 8 billion tons of carbon emissions, which accounts for over 60% of the national total [2][3] - The eight key industries targeted for inclusion in the carbon market account for about 75% of China's carbon dioxide emissions [2][3] Summary by Sections Carbon Market Expansion - The Ministry has initiated preparatory work for expanding the carbon market to include the chemical, petrochemical, civil aviation, and paper industries [4] - The expansion will follow a principle of "mature one, include one," based on industry development status and carbon emission characteristics [1][4] Current Market Status - As of August 2025, 1,277 key emission units from newly included industries have opened trading accounts [5] - The carbon market has expanded to include three major industries: steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, with a total of 1,500 key emission units [6] Allocation and Pricing Mechanism - The allocation method for carbon quotas will be similar to that of the power generation sector, with free allocation based on carbon emissions per unit of output for 2024 and 2025 [6][7] - By 2027, a new mechanism combining total quota control and both free and paid allocation will be implemented, potentially raising carbon prices from around 50 yuan/ton to between 130 and 180 yuan/ton [7][10] Industry Impact - Different industries will experience varying impacts from the carbon market, with power, steel, cement, and aluminum sectors being better prepared compared to the more complex petrochemical and chemical industries [7][8] - The paper industry, primarily composed of small and medium-sized enterprises, may face significant cost pressures and management challenges [7] Data Quality and Management - Ensuring data quality is critical for the carbon market's success, with the Ministry planning to enhance the monitoring and verification (MRV) system [5][11] - The Ministry will also upgrade infrastructure to support the expanded carbon market, focusing on regulatory capacity and data security [4][11] Future Directions - The carbon market aims to establish a transparent and unified pricing mechanism by 2030, with a focus on effective emission reduction and a robust regulatory framework [10][12] - The transition to a paid allocation system and total quota control is a key focus for the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" period [12]

Core Points - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) has released a roadmap for expanding the national carbon emissions trading market, aiming to cover major industrial sectors by 2027 [1][2][3] - The carbon market currently includes approximately 3,700 key emission units, covering around 8 billion tons of emissions, which accounts for over 60% of national carbon emissions [1][2][3] - The MEE has initiated preparatory work for including additional sectors such as chemicals, petrochemicals, civil aviation, and papermaking, adhering to a principle of gradual inclusion based on industry maturity [1][4] Industry Coverage - The eight key industries targeted for carbon market inclusion account for about 75% of China's carbon dioxide emissions, including power generation, steel, building materials, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, papermaking, and aviation [2][3] - By 2025, the MEE plans to finalize the inclusion of steel, cement, and aluminum smelting into the carbon trading market, which will significantly enhance the market's coverage [3][4] Quota Distribution - The quota distribution for 2024 and 2025 will be free and based on carbon emissions per unit of output, following a gradual approach [6][7] - New enterprises that commence operations in 2024 and 2025 will not be included in the quota distribution for those years, ensuring that only established units are considered [6] Market Dynamics - The carbon price is expected to rise significantly by 2027, from approximately 50 yuan per ton to between 130 and 180 yuan per ton, reflecting the transition to a more stringent quota control and paid allocation system [7][9] - The current carbon market has a high participation rate, with over 90% engagement in spot trading, indicating a robust market structure [10] Future Directions - The MEE aims to enhance data quality management and regulatory frameworks to support the expansion of the carbon market, ensuring accurate emissions reporting from newly included sectors [5][9] - The transition to a paid allocation system and total quota control is a key focus for the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with an emphasis on establishing a fair and effective carbon pricing mechanism [11]

Core Insights - The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo showcased advancements in automation and sustainability within the supply chain industry, emphasizing the importance of green and low-carbon practices in manufacturing [1][3][4] Group 1: Event Overview - The expo took place from July 16 to 20 in Beijing, focusing on the theme "Linking the World, Creating the Future" [1] - Over 650 enterprises and organizations participated, representing 75 countries and regions, with more than 65% being Fortune Global 500 companies [3] Group 2: Industry Trends - Automation and green practices are becoming essential features in advanced manufacturing, with many companies prioritizing the establishment of green supply chains [1][3] - Schneider Electric reported a 15.9% reduction in overall energy consumption in its supply chain since 2019, while improving production efficiency by nearly 10% [2] Group 3: Company Initiatives - APP (China) is focusing on building a green circular industry chain, implementing energy-saving upgrades, and establishing five "national-level green factories" [3] - CITIC Group showcased its innovations in various sectors, including the creation of the world's first "lighthouse factory" for aluminum wheels, achieving a weight reduction of 33.4% [4] Group 4: Carbon Market Developments - The national carbon market has expanded to include steel, cement, and aluminum industries, with an estimated 3,700 key emission units expected to participate, covering approximately 8 billion tons of emissions [5][6] - Companies like Zhejiang Xizi Aviation Manufacturing have implemented renewable energy technologies to achieve "zero carbon" status for their facilities [6] Group 5: Policy Support - The National Development and Reform Commission has initiated support for zero-carbon park construction, encouraging enterprises to adopt energy-efficient practices and reduce carbon emissions [7]