"到2027年，碳排放权交易市场基本覆盖工业领域主要排放行业。"近日，生态环境部发布《2024、2025 年度全国碳排放权交易市场钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业配额总量和分配方案》（以下简称《配额方 案》），明确三大行业碳配额分配方式和适用范围等内容，重申了碳市场扩围"路线图"。 生态环境部应对气候变化司负责人就《配额方案》答记者问时表示，生态环境部已启动化工、石化、民 航、造纸等行业扩围前期准备工作，将坚持"成熟一个、纳入一个"的原则，根据行业发展状况、降碳减 污贡献、数据质量基础、碳排放特征等，有序扩大覆盖行业范围和温室气体种类。 这还是生态环境部首次透露全国碳市场扩围"路线图"。从2021年启动以来，全国碳市场已运行四年。 从覆盖的碳排放量来看，根据生态环境部此前发布的数据，在发电行业的基础上，钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼 行业的纳入使得全国碳市场重点排放单位总计达到3700家左右，覆盖排放量约80亿吨，管控全国60%以 上的碳排放量。 然而，目前生态环境部还未发布八大行业全部纳入全国碳市场后的重点排放单位数量和预计覆盖的碳排 放量。生态环境部应对气候变化司司长夏应显在此前接受21世纪经济报道采访时介绍，"中国的碳排放 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the development and significance of China's carbon market, which has become the largest in the world, covering over 60% of the country's carbon emissions [2][24] - It highlights the transition from pilot programs in select cities to a national market, emphasizing the importance of regulatory frameworks and technological integration [4][7][10] Summary by Sections Development of Carbon Market - China initiated its carbon market with pilot programs in 2011 in cities like Beijing and Shanghai, which later provided valuable insights for the national market [4][5] - The national carbon market officially launched on July 16, 2021, initially including 2,162 power generation companies, covering approximately 4.5 billion tons of carbon emissions [5][7] Market Expansion and Performance - By 2025, the market is expected to expand to include steel, cement, and aluminum industries, adding around 2.5 billion tons of emissions to its coverage [7] - As of August 2025, the carbon market has traded nearly 700 million tons of allowances, with a transaction value exceeding 47.4 billion [8][10] Pricing and Impact on Emissions - The average carbon price in 2024 has increased significantly compared to 2021, with reduced volatility indicating growing confidence in the market [10] - Companies within the carbon market have shown a notable reduction in emission intensity, with their carbon emissions per unit of GDP being lower than non-participating firms [10] Future Goals and Regulatory Framework - The central government has set clear targets for the carbon market, aiming for comprehensive coverage of major industrial sectors by 2027 and a mixed allocation system by 2030 [13][14] - The transition from intensity-based allocation to total emissions control is planned, with a gradual increase in auctioned allowances [16][17] Challenges and Areas for Improvement - Current issues include excessive administrative intervention in allowance distribution, lack of financial instruments like carbon futures, and inconsistent data standards across regions [21][22] - Effective regulation requires collaboration among various departments to ensure funds are directed towards green initiatives and to prevent market manipulation [22] Future Developments - Plans for introducing carbon futures and establishing market makers are in place, with potential for alignment with the EU carbon market [24] - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding and participating in the carbon market for all stakeholders, as it plays a crucial role in achieving carbon neutrality goals [25][27]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The continuous decline in the national carbon market price is due to the increase in actual circulating quotas, which has changed the trading mentality of both buyers and sellers. Whether the market can rebound in the fourth quarter depends on whether the net selling ratio of surplus enterprises' own allowances remains around 40% or significantly exceeds this level. After analyzing the operating conditions and carbon trading conditions of 31 listed companies in the A-share thermal power sector, the report moderately raises the expected selling ratio of surplus enterprises' own allowances. Although the procurement demand to be met by the voluntary selling of allowances by surplus enterprises decreases, there is still a possibility of a rebound in the fourth quarter [1][2]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Carbon Price Decline Caused by Increased Circulating Quotas According to the quota transfer rules, if all surplus enterprises implement the "maximum transfer" strategy, more than 200 million tons of mandatory circulating quotas will be added to the market from 2024 to 2025. The increase in actual circulating quotas has reversed the trading mentality of both buyers and sellers, leading to a continuous decline in carbon prices. As of September 18, 2025, the closing price of the national carbon market composite price was 60.33 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 34%, hitting a new low in nearly 26 months [4]. 3.2 Fourth - Quarter Market Trend Depends on Selling Ratio of Surplus Enterprises - **"Maximum Transfer" Scenario**: If all surplus enterprises implement the "maximum transfer" strategy, after subtracting mandatory circulating quotas, the procurement demand (including compliance settlement and basic transfer) to be met by the voluntary selling of allowances by surplus enterprises will be about 50 - 60 million tons in 2025. At this time, the exhaustion of mandatory circulating quotas may support a carbon price reversal, and the faster the release of mandatory circulating quotas, the earlier the market may rebound [5]. - **"Excessive Selling" Scenario**: Whether surplus enterprises adopt the "excessive selling" strategy is affected by two factors: the company's operating conditions and whether decision - makers tend to sell allowances to make up for operating losses, and decision - makers' expectations of the market price trend in 2026 and beyond [5]. 3.3 Indicator Selection for Assessing Enterprises' Quota - Selling Tendency - **Measuring Operating Conditions**: The report selects the "net profit margin attributable to the parent company after excluding non - recurring gains and losses" as the core indicator to measure the operating conditions of thermal power enterprises, with a statistical period from 2021 to 2025, calculated on a year - to - date (YTD) basis [7]. - **Observing Quota Selling**: The report sorts out the carbon emission trading income and expenditure of 31 companies based on their performance reports, with the same statistical period and calculation method [8]. - **Characterizing Compliance Pressure**: The report uses the "explicit carbon cost - to - income ratio" to characterize the company's compliance pressure [9]. - **Limitations of Indicator Design**: The "carbon emission trading" mentioned in the performance reports may involve multiple markets; most companies only disclose carbon emission trading information in semi - annual and annual reports; not all companies include carbon emission trading revenues and expenditures in non - recurring gains and losses, so data comparability is limited [10]. 3.4 Indicator Comparison Results - **Quantitative Analysis of the Impact of Carbon Market Compliance on Company Operations**: More than 90% of the sample enterprises had an explicit carbon cost - to - income ratio of less than 1% in 2024, and about 40% of the sample enterprises showed a trend of increasing compliance pressure year by year [10]. - **Operating Conditions of Power Enterprises and Timing of Selling Surplus Quotas**: It is expected that 24 sample companies had overall quota surpluses in the first two compliance cycles. Among them, the trends of the "net profit margin attributable to the parent company after excluding non - recurring gains and losses" and the "net carbon yield" (in reverse order) of 15 companies were basically synchronized, indicating that these enterprises may tend to "sell allowances to make up for operating losses". In the first half of 2025, 4 of these 15 companies had a positive balance of carbon emission rights, and some companies showed signs of weakening operations, with a high probability of adopting an "excessive selling" strategy. Some companies also showed a downward trend in their operating performance in the first half of 2025. Although they did not disclose carbon emission trading revenues and expenditures, they may have quota surpluses and tend to sell more than 40% of their surplus allowances in the second half of the year. Overall, the thermal power industry has had good operating conditions this year. Only a few enterprises are likely to "excessively sell" surplus allowances due to operating losses [2][15][17].

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy shift in China's carbon market signifies a transition from intensity-based constraints to total volume control, impacting high-emission industries such as steel, cement, and electrolytic aluminum, which will face stricter regulations by 2027 [1][3][6] Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Development - The new guidelines aim to establish a national carbon trading market based on total volume control by 2030, moving away from the previous intensity-based approach [1][4] - As of July 2025, the national carbon market has recorded a cumulative trading volume of 680 million tons and a transaction value exceeding 46.7 billion yuan, with carbon prices stabilizing around 72 yuan per ton [1][3] - The policy emphasizes a gradual transition from free allocation of quotas to a mixed system of free and paid allocations, enhancing the scarcity and price signals of carbon quotas [4][5] Group 2: Industry-Specific Challenges - The steel, cement, and electrolytic aluminum industries collectively emit approximately 3 billion tons of CO2 equivalent annually, accounting for over 20% of national emissions, making them critical to the implementation of carbon constraints [6][9] - The steel industry is expected to increase the proportion of electric furnace steel to 15% by 2025 and promote low-carbon smelting technologies, aligning with the new carbon market price signals [7][11] - The cement industry faces unique challenges due to high process emissions, necessitating a combination of strategies such as reducing clinker ratios and utilizing alternative fuels to achieve deep emissions reductions [9][10] Group 3: Market Mechanisms and Financial Integration - The policy encourages the introduction of diverse trading products and financial instruments to enhance market liquidity and attract more capital into the carbon market [5][12] - The establishment of a monthly certification system for key parameters and the use of advanced technologies like big data and blockchain are aimed at improving the quality of carbon emissions data [13][14] - Companies are advised to integrate carbon asset management into their daily operations, utilizing quota trading and financial tools to optimize carbon asset transactions and cash flow [14]

Group 1: National Carbon Market Development - The central government has issued a significant policy document to advance the construction of the national carbon market, marking the first central document in this field, which outlines a timeline, roadmap, and tasks for long-term development [1][2] - The national carbon market has been operational for four years, achieving breakthroughs by expanding coverage to the steel, cement, and aluminum industries, and officially issuing the first batch of certified voluntary emission reductions (CCER) [1][7] - As of June 30, 2025, the cumulative trading volume of carbon allowances reached 669 million tons, with a total transaction value of 45.93 billion yuan, and the trading volume for 2024 alone reached a historical high of 18.044 billion yuan [2][7] Group 2: Carbon Footprint Management - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is actively working on establishing a product carbon footprint management system, which includes developing accounting standards and guidelines for carbon footprint calculations [3][4] - The ministry has released national standards for greenhouse gas product carbon footprint quantification, aiming to facilitate the calculation of carbon footprints across various sectors [3][4] - Future efforts will focus on enhancing data infrastructure, conducting pilot projects, and promoting international cooperation in carbon footprint management [5][6] Group 3: Carbon Financial Market - The carbon financial market has seen increased activity, with at least 18 financial institutions obtaining carbon trading qualifications, and various carbon financial products being developed [12][13] - The national carbon market currently restricts participation to key emission units, while the voluntary carbon market allows a broader range of participants, including financial institutions and project owners [12] - Plans are in place to expand trading participants and develop new financial products while ensuring market stability and regulatory oversight [12][13] Group 4: Climate Investment and Financing - The climate investment and financing pilot regions have made significant progress, with over 5,400 projects in the pipeline and total investments exceeding 3 trillion yuan [15] - The pilot regions have developed a collaborative mechanism involving government, departments, and market participants to support climate investment and financing [14][15] - Financial tools have been innovated to address funding bottlenecks, with carbon reduction support tools facilitating over 1.1 trillion yuan in loans [16] Group 5: International Cooperation and Global Carbon Market - China is actively participating in the development of international carbon market rules and has established a national carbon trading market that plays a crucial role in global climate governance [17][18] - The country is exploring cross-border carbon trading and aims to enhance international collaboration in carbon market mechanisms [18] - China emphasizes the importance of multilateralism in addressing climate change and is committed to contributing to global green and low-carbon transitions [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the release of the "Opinions on Promoting Green and Low-Carbon Transition and Strengthening the Construction of the National Carbon Market," which aims to establish a more effective and internationally influential national carbon market in China [1][2]. Summary by Sections National Carbon Market Structure - The national carbon market consists of two interconnected markets: the mandatory carbon emission trading market for key emission units and the voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market [2]. - By 2027, the mandatory carbon trading market is expected to cover major industrial sectors, while the voluntary market aims for full coverage in key areas [2]. Strategic Importance and Current Status - The "Opinions" document is seen as a significant policy initiative under China's dual carbon goals, providing strategic guidance for the future [3]. - As of July 2025, the cumulative trading volume in the national carbon market reached approximately 681 million tons, with a transaction value of about 46.784 billion yuan [3]. Future Development Focus - Key areas for future development include expanding industry coverage, optimizing quota distribution and management, enhancing market liquidity, and integrating regional pilot markets into a unified national market [4]. Enhancing Market Vitality - The "Opinions" emphasize enhancing market vitality through the introduction of diverse trading products, expanding trading participants, and strengthening market regulation [5]. - The current market primarily consists of spot quota trading, lacking financial instruments, which the new policies aim to address by attracting more capital and improving liquidity [5]. Participant Diversity - Currently, market participants are mainly compliance enterprises, which limits market activity. Introducing diverse participants is expected to improve trading structure and market effectiveness [6].

Core Viewpoint - The document outlines the Chinese government's plan to accelerate the construction of a unified national carbon market, aiming for optimal resource allocation and maximum efficiency in carbon emissions management by 2030 [1]. Group 1: Goals and Objectives - By 2027, the national carbon trading market will cover major industrial sectors, and the voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market will achieve full coverage in key areas [1]. - By 2030, a comprehensive carbon trading market will be established, featuring a combination of free and paid allocation methods, with a transparent and unified approach that aligns with international standards [1]. Group 2: Market Development and Participation - The carbon market will expand to include more industries beyond the current four (electricity, steel, building materials, and non-ferrous metals), based on industry development status and carbon emission characteristics [2]. - The introduction of qualified individuals into the voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market and the establishment of carbon pledge and repurchase policies are effective measures to broaden the trading participant base [2]. Group 3: Regulatory Framework and Oversight - The government will implement a combination of free and paid carbon allocation methods, gradually increasing the proportion of paid allocations while preventing non-compliant carbon assets from entering the market [3]. - Strengthening regulatory oversight of trading activities is essential, including the establishment of risk assessment and management systems for compliance among major emitters [3]. Group 4: Legal and Institutional Framework - Ongoing legislative research is focused on improving the management of voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading, enhancing the efficiency of fund clearing mechanisms, and reducing transaction costs in the carbon market [4]. - The construction of the national carbon market is a complex system engineering project that requires a balanced approach between government regulation and market dynamics [4].

Core Insights - The carbon market is a crucial policy tool for addressing climate change and promoting a green transition in the economy and society [1] - The recent document from the Central Committee and State Council emphasizes China's commitment to achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality [1] Group 1: Carbon Market Development - China has established a national carbon emissions trading market and a voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market, which together form a comprehensive carbon market system [2] - As of July 2025, the national carbon emissions trading market has seen a cumulative transaction volume of 681 million tons and a transaction value of 46.784 billion yuan, indicating a growing market influence [2] - The voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market has registered 9.48 million tons of certified voluntary reduction, with a transaction value of 208 million yuan as of July 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Functionality and Goals - The document outlines a roadmap for the medium- and long-term development of the national carbon market, with specific targets set for 2027 and 2030 [4] - The focus will be on expanding the coverage of industries and greenhouse gases, establishing a transparent quota management system, and transitioning from intensity control to total control of carbon emissions [4][5] - The aim is to create a low-carbon development awareness across society, emphasizing that carbon emissions have costs while carbon reductions yield benefits [3] Group 3: Systematic Approach and Governance - The construction of the national carbon market is a complex system that requires a balance between market and government roles, long-term and short-term goals, and domestic and international considerations [6][7] - The government is tasked with creating a regulatory framework and risk prevention system, while the market focuses on resource allocation efficiency [7] - Local pilot carbon markets will continue to play a role in testing policies and mechanisms that can be scaled to the national level [7] Group 4: International Cooperation and Standards - The carbon market should also serve as a platform for international cooperation in green and low-carbon development, adhering to international standards and facilitating cross-border collaboration [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of establishing a more effective, dynamic, and internationally influential national carbon market in China as a key policy tool for addressing climate change and promoting green transformation in the economy and society [1]. Group 1: Current Status of National Carbon Market - China has established a national carbon emissions trading market and a voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market, which together form a comprehensive national carbon market system [2]. - As of July 2025, the cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances reached 681 million tons, with a total transaction value of 46.784 billion yuan, indicating the market's growing effectiveness [2]. - The completion rate for allowance compliance among the 2,096 key emission units included in the trading market for 2024 is nearly 100% [2]. Group 2: Development Goals and Strategies - The document outlines a roadmap for the medium- and long-term development of the national carbon market, with specific targets set for 2027 and 2030 [4]. - It emphasizes the need to enhance market functions, expand the coverage of industries and greenhouse gases, and establish a transparent carbon allowance management system [4]. - The strategy includes a gradual shift from intensity control to total control of carbon emissions and the implementation of both free and paid allocation methods for carbon allowances [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Governance - The construction of the national carbon market aims to create a low-carbon development awareness among society, emphasizing that carbon emissions have costs while reductions yield benefits [3]. - There is a focus on balancing market vitality with effective government regulation to ensure a healthy and orderly development of the carbon market [7]. - The role of local pilot carbon markets will continue as "policy testing grounds" to innovate regulatory methods and contribute to the national market's development [7]. Group 4: International Cooperation and Standards - The national carbon market is positioned as a mechanism for international cooperation in green and low-carbon development, adhering to international standards and facilitating cross-border collaboration [8]. - The design of the carbon market aims to enhance its international influence while promoting domestic green technologies and industries to expand globally [8].

Core Viewpoint - The new policy aims to enhance the national carbon market construction and promote green and low-carbon transformation, with specific targets set for 2027 and 2030 [1][2]. Group 1: National Carbon Market Development - By 2027, the national carbon emission trading market will cover major emission industries in the industrial sector, and the voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market will achieve full coverage in key areas [1]. - By 2030, a national carbon emission trading market based on total quota control, combining free and paid allocation, will be basically established [1]. - The policy emphasizes expanding the coverage of the national carbon emission trading market and improving the carbon emission quota management system [1]. Group 2: Voluntary Emission Reduction Market - The policy calls for accelerating the construction of the voluntary emission reduction trading market and promoting the application of certified voluntary emission reductions [2]. - It encourages government agencies, enterprises, and social organizations to actively use certified voluntary emission reductions to offset carbon emissions [2]. Group 3: Market Vitality Enhancement - The policy proposes to enhance market vitality by enriching trading products, expanding trading entities, and strengthening market transaction supervision [2]. - Financial institutions that meet requirements will be allowed to participate in the national carbon market trading under lawful and risk-controlled conditions [2]. - A risk assessment and management system for compliance of key emission units will be established to prevent compliance risks [2]. Group 4: Capacity Building - The policy outlines the need to improve management systems and support frameworks, strengthen carbon emission accounting and reporting management, and ensure strict regulation of carbon emission verification [2]. - It includes the implementation of qualification management for verification institutions in the national carbon emission trading market [2]. Group 5: Implementation Assurance - The policy emphasizes increasing joint efforts to combat illegal activities in the carbon market and enhancing policy coordination with green electricity and green certificate markets [3].