Group 1 - The national carbon market in China has seen a cumulative trading volume of 865 million tons and a total transaction value of 57.663 billion yuan as of December 31, 2025 [1] - The number of key emission units included in the national carbon market is 3,378, with the power generation sector having the highest representation at 2,087 units [1] - The trading volume for 2025 is projected to reach 235 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 24%, with a transaction value of 14.63 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The development and release of methodologies for voluntary greenhouse gas reduction projects are accelerating, with 12 methodologies published, including oilfield gas recovery and salt marsh vegetation restoration [2] - As of December 31, 2025, there are 33 registered voluntary reduction projects with a total reduction volume of 17.7637 million tons [2] - The cumulative transaction volume of certified voluntary reduction amounts is 9.2194 million tons, with a transaction value of 650 million yuan [2]

Core Insights - The national carbon market is expected to operate smoothly and steadily enhance market vitality by 2025, with a focus on increasing awareness of carbon reduction among key emission units [1] - The total number of key emission units under carbon emission trading market management is projected to reach 3,378 by 2025, with significant representation from the power generation, steel, cement, and aluminum industries [1] - The cumulative trading volume of carbon emission rights is anticipated to reach 865 million tons by the end of 2025, with a total transaction value of 57.663 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Carbon Market Overview - By the end of 2025, the carbon emission trading market will include 3,378 key emission units, with 2,087 from the power generation sector, 232 from steel, 962 from cement, and 97 from aluminum [1] - The market is expected to operate for 243 trading days, with a high completion rate of quota submissions, achieving approximately 99.99% for the 2024 quota of 8.194 billion tons [1] Group 2: Voluntary Emission Reduction Projects - As of December 2025, 33 voluntary emission reduction projects have been registered, resulting in a total reduction of 1.77637 million tons [2] - The cumulative trading volume of verified voluntary emission reductions is 921.94 thousand tons, with a transaction value of 6.5 million yuan and an average annual trading price of 70.76 yuan per ton [2] - The registration system has opened accounts for 6,106 entities, including project owners, key emission units, and financial institutions [2]

Core Insights - The national carbon market is expected to operate smoothly and steadily enhance market vitality by 2025, with a continuous increase in carbon reduction awareness among key emission units [1] - The total number of key emission units under carbon emission trading market management is 3,378, with significant representation from the power, steel, cement, and aluminum industries [1] - The cumulative transaction volume of carbon emission rights reached 865 million tons by the end of 2025, with a total transaction value of 57.663 billion yuan [1] Group 1 - In 2025, the carbon emission rights trading market recorded a transaction volume of 235 million tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 24%, with a transaction value of 14.630 billion yuan [1] - The average trading price for the year was 62.36 yuan per ton, with the year-end closing price at 74.63 yuan per ton [1] - The market conducted eight single-direction auctions to meet diverse trading needs [1] Group 2 - The completion rate for the 2024 annual quota was approximately 99.99%, with a total quota of 8.194 billion tons [2] - The voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market saw the release of 12 methodologies for projects, including oilfield gas recovery and salt marsh vegetation restoration, leading to rapid market expansion [2] - By the end of 2025, 33 voluntary reduction projects were registered, with a total reduction volume of 1.776 million tons and a cumulative transaction volume of 921.94 thousand tons in verified voluntary reduction [2]

Core Points - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) has released a roadmap for expanding the national carbon emissions trading market, aiming to cover major industrial sectors by 2027 [1][2][3] - The carbon market currently includes approximately 3,700 key emission units, covering around 8 billion tons of emissions, which accounts for over 60% of national carbon emissions [1][2][3] - The MEE has initiated preparatory work for including additional sectors such as chemicals, petrochemicals, civil aviation, and papermaking, adhering to a principle of gradual inclusion based on industry maturity [1][4] Industry Coverage - The eight key industries targeted for carbon market inclusion account for about 75% of China's carbon dioxide emissions, including power generation, steel, building materials, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, papermaking, and aviation [2][3] - By 2025, the MEE plans to finalize the inclusion of steel, cement, and aluminum smelting into the carbon trading market, which will significantly enhance the market's coverage [3][4] Quota Distribution - The quota distribution for 2024 and 2025 will be free and based on carbon emissions per unit of output, following a gradual approach [6][7] - New enterprises that commence operations in 2024 and 2025 will not be included in the quota distribution for those years, ensuring that only established units are considered [6] Market Dynamics - The carbon price is expected to rise significantly by 2027, from approximately 50 yuan per ton to between 130 and 180 yuan per ton, reflecting the transition to a more stringent quota control and paid allocation system [7][9] - The current carbon market has a high participation rate, with over 90% engagement in spot trading, indicating a robust market structure [10] Future Directions - The MEE aims to enhance data quality management and regulatory frameworks to support the expansion of the carbon market, ensuring accurate emissions reporting from newly included sectors [5][9] - The transition to a paid allocation system and total quota control is a key focus for the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with an emphasis on establishing a fair and effective carbon pricing mechanism [11]

Core Insights - The article discusses the development and significance of China's carbon market, which has become the largest in the world, covering over 60% of the country's carbon emissions [2][24] - It highlights the transition from pilot programs in select cities to a national market, emphasizing the importance of regulatory frameworks and technological integration [4][7][10] Summary by Sections Development of Carbon Market - China initiated its carbon market with pilot programs in 2011 in cities like Beijing and Shanghai, which later provided valuable insights for the national market [4][5] - The national carbon market officially launched on July 16, 2021, initially including 2,162 power generation companies, covering approximately 4.5 billion tons of carbon emissions [5][7] Market Expansion and Performance - By 2025, the market is expected to expand to include steel, cement, and aluminum industries, adding around 2.5 billion tons of emissions to its coverage [7] - As of August 2025, the carbon market has traded nearly 700 million tons of allowances, with a transaction value exceeding 47.4 billion [8][10] Pricing and Impact on Emissions - The average carbon price in 2024 has increased significantly compared to 2021, with reduced volatility indicating growing confidence in the market [10] - Companies within the carbon market have shown a notable reduction in emission intensity, with their carbon emissions per unit of GDP being lower than non-participating firms [10] Future Goals and Regulatory Framework - The central government has set clear targets for the carbon market, aiming for comprehensive coverage of major industrial sectors by 2027 and a mixed allocation system by 2030 [13][14] - The transition from intensity-based allocation to total emissions control is planned, with a gradual increase in auctioned allowances [16][17] Challenges and Areas for Improvement - Current issues include excessive administrative intervention in allowance distribution, lack of financial instruments like carbon futures, and inconsistent data standards across regions [21][22] - Effective regulation requires collaboration among various departments to ensure funds are directed towards green initiatives and to prevent market manipulation [22] Future Developments - Plans for introducing carbon futures and establishing market makers are in place, with potential for alignment with the EU carbon market [24] - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding and participating in the carbon market for all stakeholders, as it plays a crucial role in achieving carbon neutrality goals [25][27]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The continuous decline in the national carbon market price is due to the increase in actual circulating quotas, which has changed the trading mentality of both buyers and sellers. Whether the market can rebound in the fourth quarter depends on whether the net selling ratio of surplus enterprises' own allowances remains around 40% or significantly exceeds this level. After analyzing the operating conditions and carbon trading conditions of 31 listed companies in the A-share thermal power sector, the report moderately raises the expected selling ratio of surplus enterprises' own allowances. Although the procurement demand to be met by the voluntary selling of allowances by surplus enterprises decreases, there is still a possibility of a rebound in the fourth quarter [1][2]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Carbon Price Decline Caused by Increased Circulating Quotas According to the quota transfer rules, if all surplus enterprises implement the "maximum transfer" strategy, more than 200 million tons of mandatory circulating quotas will be added to the market from 2024 to 2025. The increase in actual circulating quotas has reversed the trading mentality of both buyers and sellers, leading to a continuous decline in carbon prices. As of September 18, 2025, the closing price of the national carbon market composite price was 60.33 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 34%, hitting a new low in nearly 26 months [4]. 3.2 Fourth - Quarter Market Trend Depends on Selling Ratio of Surplus Enterprises - **"Maximum Transfer" Scenario**: If all surplus enterprises implement the "maximum transfer" strategy, after subtracting mandatory circulating quotas, the procurement demand (including compliance settlement and basic transfer) to be met by the voluntary selling of allowances by surplus enterprises will be about 50 - 60 million tons in 2025. At this time, the exhaustion of mandatory circulating quotas may support a carbon price reversal, and the faster the release of mandatory circulating quotas, the earlier the market may rebound [5]. - **"Excessive Selling" Scenario**: Whether surplus enterprises adopt the "excessive selling" strategy is affected by two factors: the company's operating conditions and whether decision - makers tend to sell allowances to make up for operating losses, and decision - makers' expectations of the market price trend in 2026 and beyond [5]. 3.3 Indicator Selection for Assessing Enterprises' Quota - Selling Tendency - **Measuring Operating Conditions**: The report selects the "net profit margin attributable to the parent company after excluding non - recurring gains and losses" as the core indicator to measure the operating conditions of thermal power enterprises, with a statistical period from 2021 to 2025, calculated on a year - to - date (YTD) basis [7]. - **Observing Quota Selling**: The report sorts out the carbon emission trading income and expenditure of 31 companies based on their performance reports, with the same statistical period and calculation method [8]. - **Characterizing Compliance Pressure**: The report uses the "explicit carbon cost - to - income ratio" to characterize the company's compliance pressure [9]. - **Limitations of Indicator Design**: The "carbon emission trading" mentioned in the performance reports may involve multiple markets; most companies only disclose carbon emission trading information in semi - annual and annual reports; not all companies include carbon emission trading revenues and expenditures in non - recurring gains and losses, so data comparability is limited [10]. 3.4 Indicator Comparison Results - **Quantitative Analysis of the Impact of Carbon Market Compliance on Company Operations**: More than 90% of the sample enterprises had an explicit carbon cost - to - income ratio of less than 1% in 2024, and about 40% of the sample enterprises showed a trend of increasing compliance pressure year by year [10]. - **Operating Conditions of Power Enterprises and Timing of Selling Surplus Quotas**: It is expected that 24 sample companies had overall quota surpluses in the first two compliance cycles. Among them, the trends of the "net profit margin attributable to the parent company after excluding non - recurring gains and losses" and the "net carbon yield" (in reverse order) of 15 companies were basically synchronized, indicating that these enterprises may tend to "sell allowances to make up for operating losses". In the first half of 2025, 4 of these 15 companies had a positive balance of carbon emission rights, and some companies showed signs of weakening operations, with a high probability of adopting an "excessive selling" strategy. Some companies also showed a downward trend in their operating performance in the first half of 2025. Although they did not disclose carbon emission trading revenues and expenditures, they may have quota surpluses and tend to sell more than 40% of their surplus allowances in the second half of the year. Overall, the thermal power industry has had good operating conditions this year. Only a few enterprises are likely to "excessively sell" surplus allowances due to operating losses [2][15][17].

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy shift in China's carbon market signifies a transition from intensity-based constraints to total volume control, impacting high-emission industries such as steel, cement, and electrolytic aluminum, which will face stricter regulations by 2027 [1][3][6] Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Development - The new guidelines aim to establish a national carbon trading market based on total volume control by 2030, moving away from the previous intensity-based approach [1][4] - As of July 2025, the national carbon market has recorded a cumulative trading volume of 680 million tons and a transaction value exceeding 46.7 billion yuan, with carbon prices stabilizing around 72 yuan per ton [1][3] - The policy emphasizes a gradual transition from free allocation of quotas to a mixed system of free and paid allocations, enhancing the scarcity and price signals of carbon quotas [4][5] Group 2: Industry-Specific Challenges - The steel, cement, and electrolytic aluminum industries collectively emit approximately 3 billion tons of CO2 equivalent annually, accounting for over 20% of national emissions, making them critical to the implementation of carbon constraints [6][9] - The steel industry is expected to increase the proportion of electric furnace steel to 15% by 2025 and promote low-carbon smelting technologies, aligning with the new carbon market price signals [7][11] - The cement industry faces unique challenges due to high process emissions, necessitating a combination of strategies such as reducing clinker ratios and utilizing alternative fuels to achieve deep emissions reductions [9][10] Group 3: Market Mechanisms and Financial Integration - The policy encourages the introduction of diverse trading products and financial instruments to enhance market liquidity and attract more capital into the carbon market [5][12] - The establishment of a monthly certification system for key parameters and the use of advanced technologies like big data and blockchain are aimed at improving the quality of carbon emissions data [13][14] - Companies are advised to integrate carbon asset management into their daily operations, utilizing quota trading and financial tools to optimize carbon asset transactions and cash flow [14]

Group 1: National Carbon Market Development - The central government has issued a significant policy document to advance the construction of the national carbon market, marking the first central document in this field, which outlines a timeline, roadmap, and tasks for long-term development [1][2] - The national carbon market has been operational for four years, achieving breakthroughs by expanding coverage to the steel, cement, and aluminum industries, and officially issuing the first batch of certified voluntary emission reductions (CCER) [1][7] - As of June 30, 2025, the cumulative trading volume of carbon allowances reached 669 million tons, with a total transaction value of 45.93 billion yuan, and the trading volume for 2024 alone reached a historical high of 18.044 billion yuan [2][7] Group 2: Carbon Footprint Management - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is actively working on establishing a product carbon footprint management system, which includes developing accounting standards and guidelines for carbon footprint calculations [3][4] - The ministry has released national standards for greenhouse gas product carbon footprint quantification, aiming to facilitate the calculation of carbon footprints across various sectors [3][4] - Future efforts will focus on enhancing data infrastructure, conducting pilot projects, and promoting international cooperation in carbon footprint management [5][6] Group 3: Carbon Financial Market - The carbon financial market has seen increased activity, with at least 18 financial institutions obtaining carbon trading qualifications, and various carbon financial products being developed [12][13] - The national carbon market currently restricts participation to key emission units, while the voluntary carbon market allows a broader range of participants, including financial institutions and project owners [12] - Plans are in place to expand trading participants and develop new financial products while ensuring market stability and regulatory oversight [12][13] Group 4: Climate Investment and Financing - The climate investment and financing pilot regions have made significant progress, with over 5,400 projects in the pipeline and total investments exceeding 3 trillion yuan [15] - The pilot regions have developed a collaborative mechanism involving government, departments, and market participants to support climate investment and financing [14][15] - Financial tools have been innovated to address funding bottlenecks, with carbon reduction support tools facilitating over 1.1 trillion yuan in loans [16] Group 5: International Cooperation and Global Carbon Market - China is actively participating in the development of international carbon market rules and has established a national carbon trading market that plays a crucial role in global climate governance [17][18] - The country is exploring cross-border carbon trading and aims to enhance international collaboration in carbon market mechanisms [18] - China emphasizes the importance of multilateralism in addressing climate change and is committed to contributing to global green and low-carbon transitions [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the release of the "Opinions on Promoting Green and Low-Carbon Transition and Strengthening the Construction of the National Carbon Market," which aims to establish a more effective and internationally influential national carbon market in China [1][2]. Summary by Sections National Carbon Market Structure - The national carbon market consists of two interconnected markets: the mandatory carbon emission trading market for key emission units and the voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market [2]. - By 2027, the mandatory carbon trading market is expected to cover major industrial sectors, while the voluntary market aims for full coverage in key areas [2]. Strategic Importance and Current Status - The "Opinions" document is seen as a significant policy initiative under China's dual carbon goals, providing strategic guidance for the future [3]. - As of July 2025, the cumulative trading volume in the national carbon market reached approximately 681 million tons, with a transaction value of about 46.784 billion yuan [3]. Future Development Focus - Key areas for future development include expanding industry coverage, optimizing quota distribution and management, enhancing market liquidity, and integrating regional pilot markets into a unified national market [4]. Enhancing Market Vitality - The "Opinions" emphasize enhancing market vitality through the introduction of diverse trading products, expanding trading participants, and strengthening market regulation [5]. - The current market primarily consists of spot quota trading, lacking financial instruments, which the new policies aim to address by attracting more capital and improving liquidity [5]. Participant Diversity - Currently, market participants are mainly compliance enterprises, which limits market activity. Introducing diverse participants is expected to improve trading structure and market effectiveness [6].

Core Viewpoint - The document outlines the Chinese government's plan to accelerate the construction of a unified national carbon market, aiming for optimal resource allocation and maximum efficiency in carbon emissions management by 2030 [1]. Group 1: Goals and Objectives - By 2027, the national carbon trading market will cover major industrial sectors, and the voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market will achieve full coverage in key areas [1]. - By 2030, a comprehensive carbon trading market will be established, featuring a combination of free and paid allocation methods, with a transparent and unified approach that aligns with international standards [1]. Group 2: Market Development and Participation - The carbon market will expand to include more industries beyond the current four (electricity, steel, building materials, and non-ferrous metals), based on industry development status and carbon emission characteristics [2]. - The introduction of qualified individuals into the voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market and the establishment of carbon pledge and repurchase policies are effective measures to broaden the trading participant base [2]. Group 3: Regulatory Framework and Oversight - The government will implement a combination of free and paid carbon allocation methods, gradually increasing the proportion of paid allocations while preventing non-compliant carbon assets from entering the market [3]. - Strengthening regulatory oversight of trading activities is essential, including the establishment of risk assessment and management systems for compliance among major emitters [3]. Group 4: Legal and Institutional Framework - Ongoing legislative research is focused on improving the management of voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading, enhancing the efficiency of fund clearing mechanisms, and reducing transaction costs in the carbon market [4]. - The construction of the national carbon market is a complex system engineering project that requires a balanced approach between government regulation and market dynamics [4].