业绩简评 2026 年 1 月 27 日，公司发布 2025 年业绩预告，25 年公司全年实 现归母净利润 15.26-16.59 亿元（同比+15%-25%），扣非归母净利 润 13.23-14.55 亿元（同比+16%-28%）;其中 25Q4 单季度归母净 利润 0.68-2.01 亿元（去年同期为 0.06 亿元），25Q4 归母净利润 同比高增，整体符合预期。 经营分析 利润短期受塔机减值影响，看好 26 年业绩兑现。25 年全年公司实 现归母净利润 15.26-16.59 亿元（同比+15%-25%）。从利润端来看， 由于国内塔机行业断崖式下跌，导致债券逾期风险敞口加大，公 司在三季度加大塔机业务计提，25Q3公司计提信用减值损失为 2.7 亿元（塔机及升降机业务占比超 50%），相对 24Q3 增加 2.1 亿元， 如果不算塔机减值，公司全年利润增速将更高。随着公司持续优 化资产质量、国内需求稳健向上，预计减值率将逐步回归至合理 水平，看好公司后续利润释放加速。 海外需求筑底回暖，看好公司出口带动利润持续释放。25H1 公司 装载机出口收入增速超 20%、挖机出口销量同比+22.1%，表现良好。 ...

A股三大指数今日（1月23日）集体收涨，收盘上涨个股超3900只，其中收盘股价涨停的有121只。 从一周表现来看，沪指本周累计涨幅0.83%，深证成指累计涨幅1.11%，创业板指累计跌幅0.34%。 本周累计下跌的个股中，46股跌幅均在10%以上，科马材料累计跌超30%，思林杰、博菲电气跌幅均在 24%以上。 | | | 間態設榜 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 简称 | 最新收盘价 | 本周涨幅 | 行业 | | | | (元) | (%) | | | 920086 | 科马材料 | 38.45 | -30.03 | 汽车 | | 688115 | 思林杰 | 50.00 | -29.68 | 机械设备 | | 001255 | 博菲电气 | 41.87 | -24.16 | 其础化工 | | 000638 | *ST万方 | 3.17 | -23.06 | 国防车工 | | 002231 | *ST奥维 | 0.73 | -22.34 | 国防军工 | | 605028 | 世茂龍源 | 27.44 | -21.49 | 公用事业 | | 0021 ...

Core Insights - The report from China Galaxy Securities indicates a positive growth outlook for excavator sales, with domestic and export sales expected to increase by 10.9% and 26.9% respectively by December 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Excavator Sales - In December, a total of 23,095 excavators were sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, with domestic sales at 10,331 units (+10.9%) and exports at 12,764 units (+26.9%) [2] - For the year 2025, total excavator sales are projected to reach 235,257 units, a 17% increase year-on-year, with domestic sales of 118,518 units (+17.9%) and exports of 116,739 units (+16.1%) [2] - Both medium and large excavators showed positive growth in domestic sales, while large excavator exports continue to perform strongly [1][2] Group 2: Loader and Other Machinery Sales - In December, loader domestic sales increased by 17.6% and exports surged by 41.5%. For 2025, domestic sales are expected to grow by 22.1% and exports by 14.6% [2] - In November, various machinery categories such as truck cranes, crawler cranes, and forklifts experienced double-digit growth in domestic sales [2] - Specific sales growth rates for November include: truck cranes overall +17% (domestic +26%, export +8.5%), crawler cranes overall +66% (domestic +102%, export +53%), and forklifts overall +14% (domestic +24%, export +0.7%) [2] Group 3: Working Hours and Export Data - December saw a decline in average working hours for major construction machinery products, averaging 76.5 hours, down 18.6% year-on-year [3] - From January to November, China's construction machinery export value reached $53.756 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.4% [4] - Komatsu's data for November indicates that North America and Indonesia saw positive growth in working hours, while Europe and Japan experienced declines [3] Group 4: Industry Outlook and Recommendations - The industry is expected to benefit from a positive demand environment, with recommendations for leading manufacturers such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, LiuGong, and Zoomlion, as well as core component manufacturers like Hengli Hydraulic [5]

Core Insights - A significant crane accident occurred in Chengdu, Sichuan, resulting in 5 fatalities and direct economic losses of approximately 136.316 million yuan [3][4] - The accident was attributed to inadequate safety responsibility implementation, flaws in the special construction plan, and violations during the dismantling operation [3][6] - A thorough investigation led to the identification of 12 public officials facing disciplinary actions for their roles in the incident [2][7] Investigation Findings - The direct cause of the accident was improper handling of the crane's dismantling process, leading to structural failure [5] - The involved companies, including Xinhongda Company and China Railway 22nd Bureau Group, failed to establish and enforce safety production responsibility systems, resulting in chaotic site management [6][7] - Local government and safety regulatory bodies were found lacking in their oversight responsibilities, contributing to the accident [6][7] Response and Accountability - The Sichuan provincial government established an investigation team to conduct a higher-level inquiry into the accident, involving multiple departments and experts [4][7] - Criminal charges were filed against four individuals associated with the crane dismantling, and disciplinary actions were taken against several public officials [2][7] - Recommendations for corrective measures and prevention strategies were proposed to address the identified issues and improve safety protocols [8]

Core Insights - In November, excavator sales increased by 13.9% year-on-year, with domestic sales up by 9.11% and exports up by 18.8% [2][4] - Loader sales in November rose by 32.1% year-on-year, with domestic sales increasing by 29.4% and exports by 34.8% [2][4] - The electrification rate in November was 25.7%, a month-on-month increase of 0.34 percentage points, with a cumulative rate of approximately 23.35% for the first eleven months [2][4] Excavator and Loader Sales - Total excavator sales in November reached 20,027 units, with domestic sales at 9,842 units and exports at 10,185 units [2][4] - Total loader sales in November amounted to 11,419 units, with domestic sales at 5,671 units and exports at 5,748 units [2][4] Other Product Performance - In October, various machinery categories showed strong growth, including truck cranes with a domestic sales increase of 41.7% and crawler cranes with an overall increase of 71.4% [3] - However, the aerial work platform segment faced challenges, with a significant decline in sales [3] Working Hours and Utilization Rates - The average working hours for major construction machinery products in November were 84.2 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 13% but a month-on-month increase of 4.08% [3] - The average utilization rate for major products was 56.5%, down 12.1 percentage points year-on-year but up 1.5 percentage points month-on-month [3] Export Performance - From January to October, excavator exports totaled $8.52 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25.9% [4] - Notable market fluctuations were observed, with some markets like Belgium and the Philippines experiencing declines, while others like Russia showed significant growth [4] Industry Outlook - The industry is expected to maintain an upward trend in both domestic and international sales, driven by recovery in demand from Europe and North America, as well as strong demand in mining machinery in Australia and Latin America [4] - Key players in the industry include SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, LiuGong, and Zoomlion, along with core component manufacturers like Hengli Hydraulic [4]

Core Insights - The company's Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 32.5% year-on-year, primarily due to significant impairment losses related to tower cranes, impacting short-term performance [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 25.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, and a net profit of 1.46 billion yuan, up 10.4% year-on-year [1] - The company’s overseas business showed strong performance, exceeding annual profit targets, while core domestic businesses like earthmoving machinery maintained steady growth [1] Financial Performance - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 22.3%, down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 4.9%, down 1.0 percentage point year-on-year [2] - In Q3, the gross profit margin was 22.1%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 1.5%, down 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company reported credit impairment losses of 610 million yuan for the first three quarters, a significant increase of 104% year-on-year [2] Strategic Planning - The company approved a strategic plan aiming for 60 billion yuan in revenue by 2030, with over 60% from international markets and a net profit margin of no less than 8% [3] - The plan includes a compound annual growth rate of 12% for revenue and 24% for net profit from 2024 to 2030 [3] - Key growth drivers identified are core earthmoving machinery, mining machinery, industrial vehicles, and emerging businesses like agricultural machinery and new technologies [3] Investment Outlook - Due to the impact of tower crane impairments on short-term performance, the company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.62 billion, 2.34 billion, and 2.79 billion yuan, respectively [4] - The current market capitalization corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 15, 10, and 9 times for the respective years [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that domestic construction machinery demand remains under pressure, but small excavators continue to see growth in domestic sales, supported by stock updates, machine replacements, agricultural water conservancy, and urban renovation projects. Future large-scale engineering projects and the opening of mining rights in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are expected to boost medium and large excavator sales [1] - In September, excavator domestic sales reached 9,249 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%, while export sales reached 10,609 units, a year-on-year increase of 29%. The structure of domestic sales shows rapid growth in small excavators, while medium and large excavators face pressure [1] - The sales of loaders in September totaled 10,530 units, a year-on-year increase of 30.5%, with domestic sales at 5,051 units (up 25.6%) and exports at 5,479 units (up 35.3%). The electrification rate in September was 24.56%, a decrease of 1.68 percentage points month-on-month [1] Group 2 - The average working hours for major construction machinery products in September were 78.1 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 13.3%, while the average operating rate was 55.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 9.08 percentage points [3] - In September, the operating hours of Komatsu excavators in North America and Europe showed significant recovery, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.2% and 7.3%, respectively [3] - The report highlights a trend towards high-end, electrified, and intelligent equipment in the industry, with various companies showcasing new electric and intelligent products at BICES 2025 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Guangxi Liugong Machinery Co., Ltd. held an analyst meeting to discuss its operational performance, impairment arrangements, convertible bonds, and equity incentives with 119 institutional investors and analysts [1][2]. Group 1: Operational Performance - The company reported a recovery in gross margin for its loader business, with the T series loaders launched globally on May 28, 2025, receiving market recognition [1]. - The company aims to maintain its competitive edge in electric loaders through high-end product structure, value and combination marketing, and cost reduction via smart manufacturing [1]. - The company expects loader profitability in 2026 to outperform that of 2025, focusing on high-quality development rather than engaging in price wars [1]. Group 2: Impairment Arrangements - The company has generally kept impairment provisions within budget, except for the tower crane business, which has been adversely affected by the downturn in the domestic real estate sector [2]. - Following a special audit of the tower crane business, the company anticipates increasing its impairment provisions due to heightened credit risk [2]. - The company plans to enhance asset management through a focus on quality improvement and a revamped credit management system, expecting impairment rates to gradually return to reasonable levels [2]. Group 3: Convertible Bonds and Equity Incentives - The company is conducting market research regarding its convertible bonds, which may trigger mandatory redemption clauses due to recent stock price movements [2]. - In the event of triggering the redemption clause, the company will consider investor interests, financial conditions, and market situations before making a decision [2]. - The company plans to repurchase 55.23 million shares, representing 2.72% of its capital, for new equity incentive plans or employee stock ownership plans [2]. Group 4: Future Planning Goals - The company aims to develop three growth curves through product lines in earth-moving machinery, mining machinery, and new business ventures [2]. - It seeks to enhance local advantages across the entire value chain by deepening global regional capabilities [2]. - The company plans to improve product strength and overseas operational capabilities while optimizing cost structures and enhancing operational management through organizational and process reforms [2].

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company aims to achieve an annual revenue target of 34.6 billion CNY for 2025, with steady growth expected in the international market [3] - Sales of earthmoving machinery and other main products have outperformed industry growth rates in Q3 2025 [2] Group 2: Product and Market Strategy - The T-series loader was fully launched on May 28, 2025, receiving positive market feedback and showing a recovery in gross margin [4] - The company focuses on high-quality development for its loader business, prioritizing product quality and profitability over market share [4] Group 3: Risk Management and Asset Quality - The company plans to increase impairment provisions for the tower crane business due to the ongoing downturn in the domestic real estate sector [5] - Future strategies include enhancing risk management and optimizing asset quality through improved credit management and impairment assessment processes [5] Group 4: Investor Relations and Corporate Governance - The company is considering the potential redemption of convertible bonds based on market conditions and investor feedback [6] - A total of 55.23 million shares, representing 2.72% of the share capital, have been repurchased for a new equity incentive plan [7] Group 5: Strategic Goals - The "15th Five-Year Plan" targets achieving 60 billion CNY in revenue by 2030, with over 60% from international sales and a net profit margin of no less than 8% [9] - Key initiatives include developing three growth curves, enhancing regional capabilities, improving product competitiveness, and building operational management capabilities [9]

Core Insights - The tower crane industry is facing increasing safety concerns due to recent accidents, prompting a focus on "full lifecycle safety" practices [1][3] - Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science & Technology Co., Ltd. (Zoomlion) has established itself as a leader in the tower crane market, with consistent global sales leadership and significant growth in overseas markets [1][2] - The company has achieved multiple international certifications, making it one of the manufacturers with the most international access qualifications in the industry [1][2] Group 1: Safety Practices - Zoomlion has implemented a full lifecycle traceability system for its tower cranes, ensuring quality control from raw material inspection to usage and maintenance [2] - Each component of the cranes is marked with a unique identifier, allowing for complete tracking of materials back to their source [2] - The company has adopted automation in its production line, enhancing efficiency by 20% through the use of unmanned equipment [2] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The Chinese government has introduced laws and regulations, such as the Special Equipment Safety Law, to enhance safety supervision and management in the tower crane sector [3] - The safety of tower cranes is viewed as a systemic issue that requires collaboration among various stakeholders, including manufacturers, operators, and regulatory bodies [3] - Zoomlion has advocated for improved safety measures and has established a set of core safety standards to elevate industry safety practices [3] Group 3: Strategic Projects - The Yarlung Tsangpo River Hydropower Station project is expected to positively impact Zoomlion's performance due to its scale and complexity, requiring a diverse range of engineering products [4] - The company is actively involved in this national strategic project, customizing advanced construction equipment to meet specific project requirements [4] - Zoomlion has established ongoing communication with key participants in the Yarlung Tsangpo project to ensure high-quality execution [4]