证券研究报告 2025年10月10日 行业评级：优于大市 评级变动：维持 机械设备行业跟踪：工程机械行业韧性足，内外销 整体边际改善 分析师：谷诚 资格证书：S0650524120002 邮箱：gucheng@mgzq.com 联系人：刘康衡 资格证书：S0650125020014 邮箱：liukangheng@mgzq.com 请务必阅读报告正文后的重要声明部分 摘要 资料来源：麦高证券研究发展部 请务必阅读报告正文后的重要声明部分 1 ➢ 宏观景气度跟踪：2025年8月中国制造业PMI录得49.4%，环比上升0.1个百分点，仍处于收缩区间，其中生产 PMI指数达50.8%，处于扩张区间。新订单PMI、原材料库存PMI指数和新出口订单PMI指数达49.5%、48.0%、 47.2%，相比于7月数据呈现边际改善态势，但是仍处于收缩区间。2025年8月中国工业生产者出厂价格指数 （PPI）同比下降2.9%，环比结束连续8个月下行态势，由下降0.2%转为持平，居民消费价格指数（CPI）由上 月同比持平转为下降0.4%。2025年1-8月全国固定资产投资完成额326111亿元，同比增长0.5%，其中基础设施 投资同 ...

（上接A01版） ● 本报记者 连润 三季度是经济稳增长的关键窗口期。业内人士认为，近日发布的挖掘机、物流、中小企业等领域的数据 指标呈现向好态势，折射出经济韧性与活力。 投资稳：挖掘机指数向好 挖掘机是基础设施建设的标配，是反映基础设施建设、观察固定资产投资等经济变化的风向标。 从开工率来看，9月16日发布的央视财经挖掘机指数显示，8月，全国工程机械平均开工率为43.42%。 其中，全国共有17个省份开工率超过50%。再观销量，中国工程机械工业协会统计显示，今年前8个月 挖掘机主要制造企业共销售挖掘机154181台，同比增长17.2%。其中，国内销量80628台，同比增长 21.5%。 中联重科相关负责人在接受中国证券报记者采访时表示，6月至8月，公司挖掘机国内销量同比增速分别 为6.2%、17.2%和14.8%。非土方机械方面，7月和8月，汽车起重机、随车起重机、履带起重机三类工 程起重机国内销量呈同频增长的良好态势，其中8月汽车起重机和随车起重机国内销量更是加速增长。 对于后续基建投资走势，中诚信国际研究院研究报告认为，近期，有关部门释放积极信号，加快设立投 放新型政策性金融工具，重点投向新兴产业、基础 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guojin Securities highlights the positive outlook for the engineering machinery sector, driven by the resonance of domestic and international sales, leading to growth in scale, profit release, and improved operational quality [1][2]. Domestic Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, domestic sales of earthmoving machinery remained strong, with notable recovery in non-earthmoving sectors such as cranes. The revenue growth rates for major manufacturers were as follows: Sany Heavy Industry at 21.4%, Liugong at 15.7%, XCMG at 5.5%, and Zoomlion at -11.6% [1][2]. - The gross profit margins of leading manufacturers in the domestic market were 5%-10% lower compared to the peak in 2020, but there is potential for increased performance as non-earthmoving sales rise [1]. International Market Dynamics - The overseas market remains a critical area for profit release for major manufacturers, with gross profit margins significantly higher than those in the domestic market. The margin differences for Sany, XCMG, Zoomlion, and Liugong were 9.1%, 3.7%, 7.3%, and 13.9% respectively [1][2]. Global Demand Recovery - The engineering machinery sector is expected to benefit from a global demand recovery, with a projected increase in excavator replacement demand from 79,000 units in 2023 to 249,000 units by 2027. The demand for non-earthmoving machinery is also anticipated to rise as it begins to recover from a lag behind excavator sales [3]. - Major infrastructure projects, such as the Yajiang Hydropower Station and rural road reconstruction, are expected to boost demand for various types of engineering machinery [3]. Interest Rate Impact on Overseas Demand - The report suggests that the current interest rate reduction cycle will support a recovery in overseas engineering machinery demand. In North America, demand is expected to release in 2025, while in Europe, there are signs of growth in excavator exports [4]. - Emerging markets are also projected to maintain high demand due to economic growth, urbanization, and mining activities, particularly in regions like Southeast Asia and the Middle East [4].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic excavator market in August 2025 showed strong performance despite being a traditional off-season, indicating a recovery in domestic demand and a positive outlook for the engineering machinery industry [4][5]. Group 1: Excavator Sales Performance - In August 2025, excavator sales (including exports) reached 16,523 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, with domestic sales at 7,685 units, up 14.8% [4]. - From January to August 2025, total excavator sales (including exports) were 154,181 units, reflecting a 17.2% year-on-year growth, while domestic sales were 80,628 units, increasing by 21.5% [4]. Group 2: Non-Excavator Machinery Recovery - Non-excavator machinery categories showed significant recovery in August 2025, with loader domestic sales up 18.3%, grader sales up 16.1%, truck crane sales up 28.2%, crawler crane sales up 51.7%, and truck-mounted crane sales up 24.2% [4][5]. Group 3: Government Support and Infrastructure Investment - The 2025 government work report proposed issuing 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds, an increase of 300 billion yuan from the previous year, to support infrastructure projects and stimulate demand for engineering machinery [6]. - The report emphasized the continuation of urban infrastructure investment and the promotion of new urbanization, which will sustain demand for engineering machinery, particularly in underground, municipal, and water conservancy projects [7]. Group 4: Export Growth and Market Opportunities - In August 2025, excavator exports reached 8,838 units, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%, with total exports from January to August at 73,553 units, up 12.8% [8]. - The engineering machinery export market is expected to grow, driven by increased demand in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, despite challenges such as U.S.-China tariff uncertainties [8]. Group 5: Electrification Trends - Electric loader sales in August 2025 surged to 2,477 units, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 159.4%, with an electrification rate of 26.2%, up 14.8 percentage points [9]. - From January to August 2025, electric loader sales totaled 18,821 units, reflecting a 154.8% year-on-year growth, with an electrification rate of 22.6%, up 13.6 percentage points [9].

Grading 1: Grader Machines - In August 2025, a total of 683 grader machines were sold, representing a year-on-year decline of 12.4%, with domestic sales of 108 units (up 16.1%) and exports of 575 units (down 16.3%) [1] - From January to August 2025, 5,650 grader machines were sold, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.25%, with domestic sales of 1,023 units (up 33.6%) and exports of 4,627 units (up 0.54%) [1] Grading 2: Truck Cranes - In August 2025, 1,434 truck cranes were sold, down 4.65% year-on-year, with domestic sales of 736 units (up 28.2%) and exports of 698 units (down 24.9%) [2] - From January to August 2025, 13,544 truck cranes were sold, a year-on-year decline of 6.47%, with domestic sales of 7,491 units (down 8.53%) and exports of 6,053 units (down 3.78%) [2] Grading 3: Crawler Cranes - In August 2025, 273 crawler cranes were sold, showing a year-on-year increase of 43.7%, with domestic sales of 88 units (up 51.7%) and exports of 185 units (up 40.2%) [3] - From January to August 2025, 2,080 crawler cranes were sold, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.4%, with domestic sales of 644 units (up 12.8%) and exports of 1,436 units (up 18.1%) [3] Grading 4: Truck-Mounted Cranes - In August 2025, 1,664 truck-mounted cranes were sold, up 7.29% year-on-year, with domestic sales of 1,313 units (up 24.2%) and exports of 351 units (down 28.9%) [4] - From January to August 2025, 16,871 truck-mounted cranes were sold, a year-on-year increase of 3.68%, with domestic sales of 13,158 units (up 0.58%) and exports of 3,713 units (up 16.4%) [4] Grading 5: Tower Cranes - In August 2025, 424 tower cranes were sold, down 9.79% year-on-year, with domestic sales of 219 units (down 29.1%) and exports of 205 units (up 27.3%) [5] - From January to August 2025, 3,605 tower cranes were sold, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 34.5%, with domestic sales of 1,936 units (down 54.1%) and exports of 1,669 units (up 29.7%) [5] Grading 6: Industrial Vehicles - In August 2025, 118,087 forklifts were sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.4%, with domestic sales of 70,174 units (up 19.3%) and exports of 47,913 units (up 19.6%) [6] - From January to August 2025, 976,026 forklifts were sold, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, with domestic sales of 616,256 units (up 11.3%) and exports of 359,770 units (up 15.7%) [6] Grading 7: Rollers - In August 2025, 1,312 rollers were sold, showing a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, with domestic sales of 476 units (up 6.49%) and exports of 836 units (up 18.9%) [7] - From January to August 2025, 12,172 rollers were sold, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.7%, with domestic sales of 4,625 units (up 15.4%) and exports of 7,547 units (up 24.3%) [8] Grading 8: Pavers - In August 2025, 118 pavers were sold, up 20.4% year-on-year, with domestic sales of 80 units (up 37.9%) and exports of 38 units (down 5%) [9] - From January to August 2025, 1,117 pavers were sold, marking a year-on-year increase of 33.5%, with domestic sales of 816 units (up 43.9%) and exports of 301 units (up 11.5%) [9] Grading 9: Aerial Work Platforms - In August 2025, 13,430 aerial work platforms were sold, down 18.7% year-on-year, with domestic sales of 4,040 units (down 40.9%) and exports of 9,390 units (down 2.93%) [10] - From January to August 2025, 119,485 aerial work platforms were sold, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 30.5%, with domestic sales of 45,834 units (down 47.2%) and exports of 73,651 units (down 13.6%) [10] Grading 10: High-altitude Work Vehicles - In August 2025, 490 high-altitude work vehicles were sold, showing a year-on-year increase of 88.5%, with domestic sales of 485 units (up 99.6%) and exports of 5 units (down 70.6%) [11] - From January to August 2025, 3,334 high-altitude work vehicles were sold, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40.5%, with domestic sales of 3,189 units (up 39.3%) and exports of 145 units (up 72.6%) [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a comprehensive overview of the sales performance of various construction machinery in China for August 2025, highlighting growth in excavators and loaders while noting declines in other categories such as graders and tower cranes [1][3][7][8][13]. Excavators - In August 2025, a total of 16,523 excavators were sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.8%. Domestic sales accounted for 7,685 units (up 14.8%), while exports reached 8,838 units (up 11.1%) [1][2]. - From January to August 2025, 154,181 excavators were sold, marking a 17.2% increase year-on-year, with domestic sales of 80,628 units (up 21.5%) and exports of 73,553 units (up 12.8%) [1][2]. Loaders - In August 2025, 9,440 loaders were sold, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.3%. Domestic sales were 4,774 units (up 18.3%), and exports were 4,666 units (up 8.69%) [3][4]. - For the period from January to August 2025, total loader sales reached 83,209 units, a 12.9% increase year-on-year, with domestic sales of 44,945 units (up 20.2%) and exports of 38,264 units (up 5.3%) [5][4]. Graders - In August 2025, 683 graders were sold, showing a year-on-year decline of 12.4%. Domestic sales were 108 units (up 16.1%), while exports totaled 575 units (down 16.3%) [7]. Cranes - In August 2025, 1,434 truck-mounted cranes were sold, down 4.65% year-on-year, with domestic sales of 736 units (up 28.2%) and exports of 698 units (down 24.9%) [8]. - For the first eight months of 2025, total sales of truck-mounted cranes were 13,544 units, a decrease of 6.47% year-on-year, with domestic sales of 7,491 units (down 8.53%) and exports of 6,053 units (down 3.78%) [8]. Other Machinery - In August 2025, 273 crawler cranes were sold, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 43.7%, with domestic sales of 88 units (up 51.7%) and exports of 185 units (up 40.2%) [10]. - The sales of various types of forklifts reached 118,087 units in August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.4%, with domestic sales of 70,174 units (up 19.3%) and exports of 47,913 units (up 19.6%) [15]. - The sales of elevating work platforms totaled 13,430 units in August 2025, down 18.7% year-on-year, with domestic sales of 4,040 units (down 40.9%) and exports of 9,390 units (down 2.93%) [19]. - In August 2025, 490 aerial work vehicles were sold, showing a remarkable year-on-year increase of 88.5%, with domestic sales of 485 units (up 99.6%) [21].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as outperforming the market, with a projected increase of over 5% relative to the benchmark index in the next six months [1][118]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic indicators are showing marginal recovery, leading to an overall rebound in engineering machinery sales [1]. - In the first seven months of 2025, excavator sales reached 137,658 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.8% [19][26]. - The report highlights a structural divergence in the sales of various types of cranes, with tower cranes and truck cranes experiencing declines due to the ongoing downturn in the real estate market, while crawler cranes are benefiting from strong demand in large-scale energy projects [54]. Summary by Sections 1. Macroeconomic Tracking - As of July 2025, China's manufacturing PMI recorded at 49.3%, indicating a contraction, while the production PMI was at 50.5%, signaling expansion [2][6]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight increase of 0.4% month-on-month [11][12]. - Fixed asset investment in China reached 288,229 billion yuan in the first seven months of 2025, growing by 1.6% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment up by 7.3% [14]. 2. Sales Overview of Chinese Engineering Machinery - In the first seven months of 2025, various machinery sales showed mixed results: - Excavators: 137,658 units (+17.8%) - Concrete machinery: 183,700 units (-2.14%) - Tower cranes: 3,181 units (-36.8%) - Crawler cranes: +13.1% - Truck cranes: +3.3% [19][27][30][38][48]. - The report indicates that the sales of forklifts reached 857,939 units, marking a 12% increase year-on-year [104][111]. 3. Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes that domestic infrastructure investment remains resilient, with machinery related to construction, such as road rollers and pavers, expected to benefit in the long term [102]. - The government has increased the issuance of special bonds for local governments, which is anticipated to drive demand for engineering equipment [102].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [24] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 54.808 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.04%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.358 billion yuan, up 16.63% year-on-year [7] - The growth in revenue was driven by a 22.37% increase in earthmoving machinery and a 16.64% increase in exports, which now account for 46.61% of total revenue [7][11] - The company's gross margin was reported at 22.03%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.86 percentage points, while the net margin improved to 8.06%, an increase of 0.54 percentage points [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 54.808 billion yuan for H1 2025, with a net profit of 4.358 billion yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 4.467 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 8.04%, 16.63%, and 35.57% respectively [7] - Domestic revenue was 29.263 billion yuan, growing by 1.5%, while international revenue reached 25.546 billion yuan, growing by 16.64% [21] Business Segments - Earthmoving machinery revenue was 17.019 billion yuan, accounting for 31.05% of total revenue, with a growth of 22.37% [10] - Crane machinery revenue was 10.474 billion yuan, representing 19.11% of total revenue, with a growth of 3.74% [10] - Other machinery and parts generated 15.395 billion yuan, accounting for 28.09% of total revenue, with a growth of 2.87% [10] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for the company was 22.03%, with a net margin of 8.06% and a non-recurring net margin of 8.15% [8] - The company has successfully reduced various expense ratios, contributing to improved profitability [8] Industry Outlook - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing a recovery, with significant growth expected in the coming years, driven by equipment replacement cycles and international expansion [11] - The company is well-positioned as a leading player in the domestic market, with a strong international strategy that is expected to further enhance growth potential [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - XCMG Machinery has shown continuous growth and vitality since its restructuring three years ago, with significant increases in revenue and profit in the first half of 2025 [1][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, XCMG Machinery achieved operating revenue of 54.808 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.04% [1][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.358 billion yuan, up 16.63% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses reached 4.467 billion yuan, growing by 35.57% [1][3]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 22%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous year [1][3]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was 3.725 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 107.56% [1][3]. Product Performance - XCMG Machinery's main products, including truck cranes, truck-mounted cranes, and road rollers, rank first in the domestic industry [1][4]. - The earthmoving machinery segment saw a revenue increase of 22.37% in the first half of 2025, with domestic sales leading the industry [4]. - The heavy machinery segment, particularly the wheeled crane division, has turned positive in domestic sales after four years of decline, with export revenue also increasing [4]. Internationalization and R&D - XCMG Machinery has accelerated its global expansion, with overseas revenue reaching 25.546 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.64%, accounting for 46.61% of total revenue [1][6]. - The company has invested 2.635 billion yuan in R&D in the first half of 2025, marking a 5.14% increase year-on-year, and has added 218 new invention patents [7]. - XCMG Machinery has established over 50 overseas subsidiaries and more than 300 overseas dealers, with products sold in over 190 countries and regions [6].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 54.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing an 8% year-on-year growth, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.36 billion yuan, up 16.6% year-on-year [1] - The company’s cash flow from operations increased significantly by 96.6% to 2.9 billion yuan, indicating improved operational quality [1] - The company is focusing on international markets, with international revenue growing by 16.64%, and the aftermarket revenue increasing by 33.23% [1] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 28 billion yuan, a 5.4% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.34 billion yuan, up 9.3% year-on-year [1] - The company’s non-GAAP net profit for Q2 was 2.46 billion yuan, reflecting a 35% year-on-year growth [1] - The gross margin improved by 1.2 percentage points to 18.7% [1] Market and Product Development - The company’s revenue structure is optimizing, with significant growth in high-end products (41.44% year-on-year) and new energy products (9.43% year-on-year) [1] - The domestic sales to high-quality customers increased by 6%, while major project tracking improved by 34% [1] - The company has strengthened partnerships with major overseas clients, including BHP, Rio Tinto, and Vale [1] Business Segments - The earthmoving machinery segment saw a 20% increase in export revenue and a 29% growth in aftermarket revenue [2] - The sales of new energy loaders surged by 139.4%, solidifying the company’s position as a global leader [2] - The company’s revenue from bulldozers grew by 243%, indicating strong performance in the earthmoving machinery sector [2] Strategic Initiatives - The mining machinery division is expanding its overseas projects, with terminal revenue from open-pit mining equipment increasing by 30% year-on-year [3] - The acquisition of a 51% stake in a heavy vehicle company aims to enhance the competitiveness of the mining machinery product line [3] - The company hosted a global summit on zero-carbon smart mining technology, attracting participants from over 30 countries [3] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 7.8 billion yuan, 9.5 billion yuan, and 12 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 31%, 22%, and 26% [3] - The company is positioned to benefit from the domestic replacement cycle in the engineering machinery sector and further expansion in overseas markets [3]