| | | | | 尿素早评20250827:关注逢低做多机会 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日度 | 单位 8月26日 8月25日 | | | | 变化值 | 変化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | 民素期货价格 | (收盘价) | UR01 山东 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1737.00 1700.00 | 1745.00 1700.00 | -8.00 0.00 | -0.46% 0.00% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1777.00 | 1789.00 | -12.00 | -0.67% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1703.00 | 1714.00 | -11.00 | -0.64% | | 期现价格 | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1610.00 | 1610.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 国内现货价格 | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1710.00 | 1710.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | (小顆粒) | 河北 ...

| | 尿素早评20250826: 出口预期影响市场 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日慶 | 変化值 変化值 | 单位 | 8月25日 | 8月22日 | | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | UR01 UR05 房素期货价格 (收盘价) 山东 山西 | | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1745.00 1789.00 1700.00 1610.00 | 1739.00 1782.00 1740.00 1630.00 | 6.00 7.00 -40.00 -20.00 | 0.35% 0.39% -2.30% -1.23% | | UR09 | | 元/吨 | 1714.00 | 1715.00 | -1.00 | -0.06% | | 期现价格 | | | | | | | | 河南 国内现货价格 | | 元/吨 | 1710.00 | 1750.00 | -40.00 | -2.29% | | (小顆粒) 河北 | | 元/吨 | 1730.00 | 1770.00 | -40.00 | ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250822: 出口预期影响市场 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日度 | | 变化值 | 单位 | 8月21日 | 8月20日 | (绝对值) | 英化值 (相对值) | | UR01 UR09 山东 山西 | 民素期货价格 (收盘价) | | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1764.00 1737.00 1760.00 1630.00 | 1776.00 1751.00 1770.00 1630.00 | -12.00 -14.00 -10.00 0.00 | -0.56% | | UR05 | | | 元/吨 | 1797.00 | 1810.00 | -13.00 | -0.68% -0.72% | | | | | | | | | -0.80% | | 期现价格 | | | | | | | 0.00% | | 河南 | | | 元/吨 | 1760.00 | 1780.00 | -20.00 | -1.12% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | 河北 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day, UR fluctuated and declined, closing at 1776. The decline in the futures market was mainly due to the uncertainty of exports and the real supply - demand pressure in the domestic market. Agricultural demand has entered the off - season, while domestic supply remains high, with a daily output of about 190,000 tons and upstream inventory of about 860,000 tons. Although the current export policy is unclear, exports can help relieve the pressure of high supply under the condition of sufficient domestic supply and low prices. It is necessary to prevent the excessive short - term increase in urea prices, which is not conducive to the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - buying opportunities after the decline. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: UR01 in Shandong closed at 1776 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan or 2.26% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1810 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan or 1.58%; UR09 closed at 1751 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan or 1.79%. [1] - Spot prices: In Henan, the domestic spot price was 1780 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 2.30%; in Hebei (small - particle), it was 1770 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.72%; in Northeast China, it remained unchanged at 1750 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 1780 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 2.30%. [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 40 yuan/ton, up 69 yuan from the previous day. The 01 - 05 spread was - 34 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan from the previous day. [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream: The price of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively. [1] - Downstream: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton; in Henan, it remained unchanged at 2550 yuan/ton. The price of melamine in Shandong was 5250 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan or 0.48%; in Jiangsu, it remained unchanged at 5100 yuan/ton. [1] Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the main contract 2601 of urea futures was 1793 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1804 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1774 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1776 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1788 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 208,609 lots. [1]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1] Core Viewpoints - The short - term urea price will fluctuate on the strong side due to the market rumor of China exporting urea to India, which helps relieve the pressure of high domestic supply in the off - season of agricultural demand [1] Summary by Relevant Content 1. Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On August 19, UR01 closed at 1,817 yuan/ton (up 63 yuan/ton or 3.59% from August 18), UR05 at 1,839 yuan/ton (up 49 yuan/ton or 2.74%), UR09 at 1,783 yuan/ton (up 52 yuan/ton or 3.00%) [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices**: Spot prices in multiple regions such as Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged on August 19 compared to August 18 [1] - **Spreads**: The spread between Shandong spot and UR01 changed from - 60 yuan/ton to - 109 yuan/ton, a change of - 49 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 spread changed from - 36 yuan/ton to - 22 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton [1] - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively on August 19 compared to August 18 [1] - **Downstream Prices**: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged; the price of melamine in Shandong increased by 31 yuan/ton (0.60%) to 5,225 yuan/ton, while in Jiangsu it remained unchanged at 5,100 yuan/ton [1] 2. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1,756 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,826 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,744 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,817 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,789 yuan/ton. The trading volume of 2601 was 213,033 lots [1] 3. Trading Strategy - On the previous trading day, UR increased in position and price, closing at 1,817. The rumor of China exporting urea to India led to an increase in position and price of urea futures, with a gain of over 3%. Given the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the domestic urea market, the key variable is exports, and opening up exports in the off - season of agricultural demand helps relieve the pressure of high supply [1]

Group 1: Report's Core View - The rebound of urea prices is limited due to the persistent pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the domestic urea market. If export demand fails to supplement, urea prices will face significant downward pressure [1]. Group 2: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Price Changes - Urea futures prices showed an upward trend on August 18 compared to August 15, with UR01 in Shandong rising by 0.98% (17 yuan/ton), UR01 in Shanxi rising by 1.76% (30 yuan/ton), UR05 rising by 0.39% (7 yuan/ton), and UR09 rising by 0.58% (10 yuan/ton) [1]. - Domestic spot prices of small - particle urea also increased in some regions, such as in Henan by 1.16% (20 yuan/ton), in Hebei by 0.58% (10 yuan/ton), and in Jiangsu by 1.75% (30 yuan/ton) [1]. - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 23 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - Upstream coal prices and downstream product prices (compound fertilizer, melamine) remained unchanged [1]. 2. Supply and Demand Situation - The daily production of urea is close to 190,000 tons, at a high level, and the supply pressure is still large [1]. - The inventory accumulation of enterprises is not significant mainly due to the increase in port collection, but the upstream enterprise inventory is still around 860,000 tons [1]. - Domestic agricultural demand may gradually enter the off - season, and if export demand cannot be supplemented, urea prices will face downward pressure [1].

| | 尿素早评20250818: 供强需弱格局难改 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日慶 | 变化值 单位 8月15日 8月14日 | | | | | 変化值 | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) 0.64% | | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 山东 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1737.00 1700.00 | 1726.00 1720.00 | 11.00 -20.00 | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1783.00 | 1771.00 | 12.00 | 0.68% | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1721.00 | 1715.00 | 6.00 | 0.35% | | | | | | | | -1.16% | | 期现价格 | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1610.00 | 1620.00 | -10.00 | -0.62% | | 国内现货价格 | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1720.00 | 1740.00 | -20.00 | -1.15% | | (小顆粒) | 河北 | 元/ ...

Report Summary - **Investment Rating**: Not provided [1] - **Core View**: The influence of the Indian tender on market sentiment is gradually fading. Returning to the domestic supply - demand situation, the supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production close to 190,000 tons at a high level. Although the increase in enterprise inventory accumulation is not large due to increased port - collection, the upstream enterprise inventory is still around 860,000 tons. Domestically, agricultural demand may gradually enter the off - season. If export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure [1] Key Information by Category 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On August 14, compared with August 13, UR01 decreased by 21 yuan/ton (-1.20%) to 1726 yuan/ton, UR05 decreased by 17 yuan/ton (-0.95%) to 1771 yuan/ton, UR09 decreased by 11 yuan/ton (-0.64%) to 1715 yuan/ton, and the Shandong price decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.58%) to 1720 yuan/ton [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices**: The prices in most regions remained unchanged, except for the small - particle price in Hebei, which decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.57%) to 1740 yuan/ton [1] - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as anthracite and downstream products like compound fertilizer and melamine remained unchanged on August 14 compared with August 13 [1] 2. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 7 yuan/ton to - 51 yuan/ton [1] - **Spread**: The 01 - 05 spread decreased by 4 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [1] 3. Trading Information - **Urea Futures Main Contract 2601**: On the previous trading day, the opening price was 1741 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1752 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1725 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1726 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1737 yuan/ton, and the position was 174,742 lots [1]

| | | | | 尿素早评20250814: 基本面仍有压力 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日度 | | 8月13日 单位 | | | 8月12日 | 变化值 (绝对值) | 変化值 (相对值) | | UR01 UR05 山东 期现价格 | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1747.00 1788.00 1730.00 | 1756.00 1796.00 1720.00 | -9.00 -8.00 10.00 | -0.51% -0.45% 0.58% -0.61% | | UR09 | | | 元/吨 | 1726.00 | 1727.00 | -1.00 | -0.06% | | 山西 | | | 元/吨 | 1620.00 | 1630.00 | -10.00 | | | 河南 | | | 元/吨 | 1740.00 | 1730.00 | 10.00 | 0.58% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | 河北 | (小顆粒) | | 元/吨 | 1750.00 ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250812: 基本面仍有压力 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日度 | 8月11日 8月8日 单位 | | | | 变化值 (绝对值) | 変化值 (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 UR05 山东 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1751.00 1790.00 1730.00 | 1751.00 1784.00 1760.00 | 0.00 6.00 -30.00 | 0.00% 0.34% -1.70% -1.21% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1722.00 | 1728.00 | -6.00 | -0.35% | | | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1630.00 | 1650.00 | -20.00 | | | | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1740.00 | 1780.00 | -40.00 | -2.25% | | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | (小顆粒) | 河北 | 元/吨 | 1750.00 ...