| | | | | 尿素早评20251010:向上驱动未现,供给压力驱动向下 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 变化值 单位 10月9日 | | | 9月30日 | | 变化值 | | | | UR01 | 元/吨 | 1609.00 | 1670.00 | (絶对值) -61.00 | (相对值) -3.65% | | | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR05 UR09 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1677.00 1701.00 | 1717.00 1742.00 | -40.00 -41.00 | -2.33% -2.35% | | | | | | | 1600.00 | | | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 1560.00 | | -40.00 | -2.50% | | 期现价格 | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1460.00 | 1490.00 | -30.00 | -2.01% | | | 国内现货价格 | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1570.00 | 1590.00 | -20.00 | -1.26% ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20251010:向上驱动未现,供给压力驱动向下 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 变化值 单位 10月9日 | | | 9月30日 | | 变化值 | | | | UR01 | 元/吨 | 1609.00 | 1670.00 | (絶对值) -61.00 | (相对值) -3.65% | | | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR05 UR09 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1677.00 1701.00 | 1717.00 1742.00 | -40.00 -41.00 | -2.33% -2.35% | | | | | | | 1600.00 | | | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 1560.00 | | -40.00 | -2.50% | | 期现价格 | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1460.00 | 1490.00 | -30.00 | -2.01% | | | 国内现货价格 | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1570.00 | 1590.00 | -20.00 | -1.26% ...

| | 尿素早评20250929:供给压力继续提升 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日慶 | 变化值 英化值 单位 9月26日 9月25日 | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | UR01 尿素期货价格 山东 山西 | | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1669.00 1600.00 1490.00 | 1674.00 1610.00 1490.00 | -5.00 -10.00 0.00 | -0.30% -0.62% | | UR05 | | 元/吨 | 1720.00 | 1727.00 | -7.00 | -0.41% | | (收盘价) UR09 | | 元/吨 | 1740.00 | 1747.00 | -7.00 | -0.40% | | 期现价格 | | | | | | 0.00% | | 河南 国内现货价格 | | 元/吨 | 1610.00 | 1610.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | (小顆粒) 河北 | | 元/吨 | 1650.00 | 1650.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The report recommends paying attention to the opportunity of buying low on the 01 contract. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain cost - effective level, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and a relatively cheap valuation. There are two possible upward drivers for urea prices in the future: on the supply side, there is an expectation of old - device renovation, with about 20% of urea devices over 20 years old and a comprehensive operating rate close to 80% with limited idle capacity; on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports, and urea exports from September to October are optimistic under the background of improved China - India relations. Therefore, the space for further decline of urea is limited [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01: 1660.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 1.00 yuan (-0.06%) from September 19 [1]. - UR05: 1713.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 9.00 yuan (-0.52%) from September 19 [1]. - UR09: 1734.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 10.00 yuan (-0.57%) from September 19 [1]. Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - Shandong: 1620.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 20.00 yuan (-1.22%) from September 19 [1]. - Shanxi: 1500.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 10.00 yuan (-0.66%) from September 19 [1]. - Henan: 1620.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 20.00 yuan (-1.22%) from September 19 [1]. - Hebei: 1660.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 20.00 yuan (-1.19%) from September 19 [1]. - Northeast: 1660.00 yuan/ton on September 22, unchanged from September 19 [1]. - Jiangsu: 1630.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 20.00 yuan (-1.21%) from September 19 [1]. Basis and Spreads - Shandong spot - UR: -93.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 11.00 yuan from September 19 [1]. - 01 - 05 spread: -53.00 yuan/ton on September 22, up 8.00 yuan from September 19 [1]. Upstream Costs - Anthracite prices in Henan: 1000.00 yuan/ton on September 22, unchanged from September 19 [1]. - Anthracite prices in Shanxi: 880.00 yuan/ton on September 22, unchanged from September 19 [1]. Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong: 2930.00 yuan/ton on September 22, unchanged from September 19 [1]. - Compound fertilizer (45%S) in Henan: 2520.00 yuan/ton on September 22, unchanged from September 19 [1]. Melamine Prices - Shandong: 5017.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 66.00 yuan (-1.30%) from September 19 [1]. - Jiangsu: 5200.00 yuan/ton on September 22, unchanged from September 19 [1]. Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of buying low on the 01 contract [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report [1] 2. Core View - The report recommends paying attention to the opportunity of buying the 01 contract on dips. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain cost - effective level, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and the valuation being relatively cheap. There are two possible upward drivers for urea prices in the future: on the supply side, there is an expectation of old - device renewal and transformation, as the proportion of urea devices over 20 years old is about 20% and the current comprehensive operating rate is close to 80% with limited idle capacity; on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports, and considering the easing of Sino - Indian relations, urea exports from September to October are quite promising. Therefore, the space for further decline of urea is relatively limited [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Price (Closing Price) - UR01: On September 19, it was 1661.00 yuan/ton, down 9.00 yuan or 0.54% from September 18 [1] - UR05: On September 19, it was 1722.00 yuan/ton, down 3.00 yuan or 0.17% from September 18 [1] - UR09: On September 19, it was 1744.00 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan or 0.06% from September 18 [1] Domestic Spot Price (Small - Granule) - Shandong: Remained at 1640.00 yuan/ton from September 18 to 19 [1] - Shanxi: On September 19, it was 1510.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan or 0.66% from September 18 [1] - Henan: On September 19, it was 1640.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan or 0.61% from September 18 [1] - Hebei: Remained at 1680.00 yuan/ton from September 18 to 19 [1] - Northeast: Remained at 1660.00 yuan/ton from September 18 to 19 [1] - Jiangsu: Remained at 1650.00 yuan/ton from September 18 to 19 [1] Basis and Spread - Shandong Spot - UR: On September 19, it was - 82.00 yuan/ton, up 3.00 yuan from September 18 [1] - 01 - 05 Spread: On September 19, it was - 61.00 yuan/ton, down 6.00 yuan from September 18 [1] Upstream Cost - Anthracite Price: In Henan, it remained at 1000.00 yuan/ton from September 18 to 19; in Shanxi, it remained at 880.00 yuan/ton; in Shandong, it remained at 2930.00 yuan/ton [1] Downstream Price - Compound Fertilizer (45%S) Price in Henan: Remained at 2520.00 yuan/ton from September 18 to 19 [1] - Melamine Price: In Shandong, it remained at 5083.00 yuan/ton from September 18 to 19; in Jiangsu, it remained at 5200.00 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1672 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1676 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1656 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1661 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1666 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of buying the 01 contract on dips [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recommend paying attention to the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract on dips. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain cost - effective level, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and a reasonable valuation. There are two potential upward drivers for urea prices: supply - side expectation of old device renovation (old devices over 20 years account for about 20% and the current comprehensive operating rate is close to 80% with limited idle capacity), and demand - side expectation of improved exports (optimistic about urea exports from September to October due to the easing of Sino - Indian relations). Therefore, the space for further decline of urea is limited [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - On September 17, UR01 closed at 1,681 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.30% from September 16; UR05 closed at 1,734 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.17%; UR09 closed at 1,755 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.11% [1]. Spot Prices - Domestic small - particle urea spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged on September 17 compared to September 16, while the price in Shanxi dropped 10 yuan/ton or 0.65% to 1,530 yuan/ton [1]. Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 3 yuan/ton to - 84 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 53 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream Costs - The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Downstream Prices - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong dropped 20 yuan/ton or 0.68% to 2,930 yuan/ton, while the price in Henan remained unchanged at 2,520 yuan/ton. The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5,083 yuan/ton and 5,200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1,685 yuan/ton, the highest was 1,687 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,676 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,681 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,681 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 281,488 lots [1]. Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract on dips [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recommend paying attention to the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract on dips. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain cost - effective level, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and a relatively cheap valuation. There are two possible upward drivers for urea prices in the future: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old - aged plants, and on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports. Therefore, the space for further decline in urea prices is relatively limited [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01: 1681.00 yuan/ton on September 17, down 5.00 yuan (-0.30%) from September 16 [1] - UR05: 1734.00 yuan/ton on September 17, down 3.00 yuan (-0.17%) from September 16 [1] - UR09: 1755.00 yuan/ton on September 17, down 2.00 yuan (-0.11%) from September 16 [1] Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granules) - Shandong: 1650.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] - Shanxi: 1530.00 yuan/ton on September 17, down 10.00 yuan (-0.65%) from September 16 [1] - Henan: 1660.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] - Hebei: 1680.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] - Northeast: 1660.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] - Jiangsu: 1650.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] Basis and Spread - Shandong Spot - UR basis: - 84.00 yuan/ton on September 17, up 3.00 yuan from September 16 [1] - 01 - 05 spread: - 53.00 yuan/ton on September 17, down 2.00 yuan from September 16 [1] Upstream Cost - Anthracite coal price in Henan: 1000.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] - Anthracite coal price in Shanxi: 880.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Shandong: 2930.00 yuan/ton on September 17, down 20.00 yuan (-0.68%) from September 16 [1] - Compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Henan: 2520.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] - Melamine price in Shandong: 5083.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] - Melamine price in Jiangsu: 5200.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1685 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1687 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1676 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1681 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1681 yuan/ton. The trading volume of 2601 was 281,488 lots [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Although the current urea spot price is oscillating downward due to strong supply and weak demand, from the perspectives of valuation and drivers, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of buying on dips after the spot price stabilizes. Specifically, it is advisable to pay attention to the buying - on - dips opportunity of the 01 contract [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On September 15, compared with September 12, UR01 futures price increased by 20 yuan/ton (1.20%) to 1683 yuan/ton, UR05 increased by 13 yuan/ton (0.76%) to 1731 yuan/ton, and UR09 increased by 180 yuan/ton (11.46%) to 1750 yuan/ton [1] - In terms of domestic spot prices (small - granular), prices in Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu decreased, with price changes of - 20 yuan/ton (- 1.20%), - 10 yuan/ton (- 0.61%), and - 10 yuan/ton (- 0.61%) respectively, while prices in Shanxi, Hebei, and Northeast remained unchanged [1] Basis and Spread - On September 15, the basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 91 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton compared with September 12; the 01 - 05 spread was - 48 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream anthracite prices in Henan, Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Downstream prices: the price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton and 2550 yuan/ton respectively; the melamine price in Shandong decreased by 17 yuan/ton (- 0.33%) to 5083 yuan/ton, while the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5300 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1666 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1688 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1665 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1683 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1679 yuan/ton [1] Long - Short Logic - Recently, there has been a resurgence of anti - involution sentiment in coking coal. The sharp rise of coking coal in the night session yesterday drove the coal - chemical sentiment to be relatively strong [1] - From a valuation perspective, the current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the urea valuation is not high [1] - From a driving perspective, there are two possible upward drivers for urea prices in the second half of the year: on the supply side, there is an expectation of old - device renovation, with about 20% of urea devices over 20 years old and the current comprehensive urea operating rate above 80%, and there is not much idle capacity; on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports, and considering the easing of Sino - Indian relations, the urea exports from September to October are relatively promising [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - Although the current spot price of urea is fluctuating downward due to strong supply and weak demand, from the perspectives of valuation and drivers, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of buying at low prices after the spot price stabilizes. It is suggested to pay attention to the buying opportunity of the 01 contract at low prices [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On September 15, compared with September 12, UR01 increased by 20 yuan/ton to 1683 yuan/ton, a change of 1.20%; UR05 increased by 13 yuan/ton to 1731 yuan/ton, a change of 0.76%; UR09 increased by 180 yuan/ton to 1750 yuan/ton, a change of 11.46% [1]. - Among domestic spot prices, Shandong decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1640 yuan/ton, a change of -1.20%; Henan decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1640 yuan/ton, a change of -0.61%; Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1640 yuan/ton, a change of -0.61%. The prices in Shanxi, Hebei, and Northeast remained unchanged [1]. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 33 yuan/ton to -91 yuan/ton; the spread of 01 - 05 increased by 7 yuan/ton to -48 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively; the prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton and 2550 yuan/ton respectively; the price of melamine in Shandong decreased by 17 yuan/ton to 5083 yuan/ton, a change of -0.33%, and the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5300 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main contract 2601 of urea futures was 1666 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1688 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1665 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1683 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1679 yuan/ton [1]. Long - Short Logic - Recently, the anti - involution sentiment of coking coal has a tendency to rise again. The sharp rise of coking coal in the night session yesterday drove the sentiment of the coal chemical industry to be strong [1]. - From a valuation perspective, the current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the urea valuation is not high [1]. - From a driving perspective, there are two possible upward drivers for the urea price in the second half of the year. First, there is an expectation of renewal and transformation of old devices on the supply side, with about 20% of urea devices over 20 years old, and the current comprehensive operating rate of urea is over 80%, with little idle capacity. Second, there is an expectation of improvement in exports on the demand side. With the easing of Sino - Indian relations, the urea exports from September to October are quite promising [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Although the current urea price is fluctuating downward due to strong supply and weak demand, from the perspectives of valuation and drivers, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long at low prices after the spot price stabilizes. The current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the urea valuation is not expensive. There are two possible upward drivers for the urea price in the second half of the year: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old - fashioned plants, and on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01 in Shanxi: 1663 yuan/ton on September 12, down 8 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 0.48% [1]. - UR05: 1718 yuan/ton on September 12, down 1 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 0.06% [1]. - UR09: 1570 yuan/ton on September 12, down 25 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 1.57% [1]. Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - Shandong: 1660 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1]. - Henan: 1650 yuan/ton on September 12, down 10 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 0.60% [1]. - Hebei: 1670 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1]. - Northeast: 1680 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1]. - Jiangsu: 1650 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1]. Basis and Spreads - Shandong spot - UR: - 58 yuan/ton on September 12, up 1 yuan from September 11 [1]. - 01 - 05 spread: - 55 yuan/ton on September 12, down 7 yuan from September 11 [1]. Upstream Costs - Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively on September 12 compared with September 11 [1]. Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) prices in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton and 2550 yuan/ton respectively on September 12 compared with September 11 [1]. - Melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5100 yuan/ton and 5300 yuan/ton respectively on September 12 compared with September 11 [1]. Important Information On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1665 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1676 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1661 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1663 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1667 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 300585 lots [1]. Trading Strategy Focus on the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [1].