Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The recent decline in urea prices is due to cooling sentiment and falling coal prices. It is necessary to focus on whether the cost - end of urea can stabilize. The low valuation of urea reflects the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand, but there are expectations of supply reduction in mid - to late December, and the export quota and winter reserve demand will relieve the supply - demand pressure and support the price. The trading strategy is to go long on far - month contracts at low prices [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices: UR01 closed at 1638 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan or 0.43% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1703 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.58%; UR09 closed at 1716 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.29% [1] - Domestic spot prices (small - particle): Shandong was 1710 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.59%; Shanxi was 1540 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.65%; Henan remained unchanged at 1690 yuan/ton; Hebei was 1710 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.58%; Northeast remained unchanged at 1740 yuan/ton; Jiangsu was 1690 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.60% [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was 7 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day. The spread of 01 - 05 was - 65 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream: The price of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Downstream: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong was 3180 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.63%, and remained unchanged in Henan at 2670 yuan/ton. The price of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5233 yuan/ton and 5250 yuan/ton respectively [1] Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1651 yuan/ton, the highest was 1656 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1635 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1638 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1645 yuan/ton, and the position was 127,530 lots [1] Trading Strategy - Go long on far - month contracts at low prices [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The current low valuation of urea is the result of the market's consensus on the pressure of supply-demand surplus. The recent price decline is affected by cooling sentiment and falling coal prices. From the perspective of driving factors, the urea price is supported at a low level. With the support of macro sentiment, urea may gradually stabilize. It is recommended to go long on far-month contracts at low prices [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On December 10, UR01 was 1645 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan or 0.12% from the previous day), UR05 was 1713 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan or 0.12%), UR09 was 1721 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shandong was 1700 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan or 0.59%), and Henan was 1690 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan or 0.60%) [1] - **Spot Prices**: In Hebei, it was 1720 yuan/ton (unchanged), in the Northeast, it was 1740 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu, it was 1680 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] - **Spreads**: The spread between Shandong spot and UR was -13 yuan/ton (up 8 yuan from the previous day), and the 01 - 05 spread was -68 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi were 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively (both unchanged). The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan were 3160 yuan/ton and 2670 yuan/ton respectively (both unchanged). The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu were 5233 yuan/ton and 5250 yuan/ton respectively (both unchanged) [1] 2. Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1650 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1655 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1640 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1645 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1647 yuan/ton, and the持仓 volume was 142790 lots [1] 3. Market Logic - **Bullish and Bearish Logic**: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp as expected last night, which helped support the macro - sentiment. Most assets such as U.S. stocks, crude oil, gold, and copper rose, which is also beneficial to the sentiment of the domestic commodity market. Urea has a limited rebound from the bottom, and its valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. There is still an expectation of supply reduction in mid - to - late December. On the demand side, export quotas can relieve the domestic supply - demand pressure, and the winter reserve demand can support the price, and low prices may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Go long on far - month contracts at low prices (viewpoint score: 0) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The report believes that urea may fluctuate and build a bottom in the short term. Urea's low valuation reflects the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. In mid - to late December, there is an expectation of reduced supply, and the export quota will relieve domestic supply - demand pressure, while winter reserve demand will support the price. Recently, the price decline is affected by sentiment cooling and coal price drops, but the price is supported at a low level [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On December 9, UR01 closed at 1643 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.18% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1711 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.06%; UR09 closed at 1721 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.17%. Among domestic spot prices, Shandong remained unchanged at 1690 yuan/ton, Shanxi dropped 30 yuan to 1530 yuan/ton (-1.92%), Henan dropped 10 yuan to 1680 yuan/ton (-0.59%), etc. [1] Spreads and Cost - related Information - The spread between Shandong spot and UR01 was -21 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from the previous day; the 01 - 05 spread was -68 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. The prices of upstream raw materials such as Henan and Shanxi anthracite remained unchanged, while the prices of downstream products like compound fertilizer and melamine mostly increased. For example, Shandong compound fertilizer (45%S) rose 30 yuan to 3160 yuan/ton (0.96%) [1] Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1646 yuan/ton, the highest was 1651 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1635 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1643 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1644 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - The short - term trading strategy is to wait and see, with a view score of 0 [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Report's Core View - In the short - term, attention should be paid to the callback risk as the recent decline in coal prices brings some downward pressure on the coal - chemical industry. However, in the medium - to - long - term, it is advisable to go long on dips. The low valuation of urea is a result of the market's consensus on the oversupply pressure, but from a driving perspective, the urea price is supported at a low level, and the bottom of the urea price may gradually become clear. [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices (UR01, UR05, UR09) decreased on December 8 compared to December 5. UR01 dropped from 1673.00 yuan/ton to 1646.00 yuan/ton (-1.61%); UR05 from 1736.00 yuan/ton to 1710.00 yuan/ton (-1.50%); UR09 from 1752.00 yuan/ton to 1724.00 yuan/ton (-1.60%). [1] - Domestic spot prices for small - granular urea in most regions either decreased or remained unchanged. For example, in Shandong, it dropped from 1720.00 yuan/ton to 1690.00 yuan/ton (-1.74%); in Henan, from 1710.00 yuan/ton to 1690.00 yuan/ton (-1.17%). [1] Key Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1661 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1670 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1640 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1646 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1651 yuan/ton. The持仓量 was 167073 hands. [1] Long - Short Logic - In terms of valuation, the rebound of urea from the bottom is limited, and the valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. In terms of drivers, export quotas will ease the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and winter reserve demand will support the price, and low prices may encourage storage enterprises to enter the market. [1] Trading Strategy - In the medium - to - long - term, focus on opportunities to go long on dips. [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Short - term, attention should be paid to the callback risk as the recent decline in coal prices brings some callback pressure to the coal chemical industry. However, in the medium - to - long - term, it is advisable to go long on dips. The low valuation of urea is a result of the market's consensus on the supply - demand surplus pressure, but from a driving perspective, the urea price is supported at a low level, and the bottom of the urea price may gradually become clear. [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On December 5, compared with December 4, UR01 decreased by 15 yuan/ton (-0.89%), UR05 by 9 yuan/ton (-0.52%), and UR09 by 11 yuan/ton (-0.62%). [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: Among them, the prices in Shandong and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.58% and 0.59% respectively), the price in Shanxi decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.64%), and the prices in Henan, Hebei, and Northeast remained unchanged. [1] - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively. [1] - **Downstream Prices**: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong increased by 30 yuan/ton (0.97%), and in Henan by 10 yuan/ton (0.38%). The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. [1] 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 19 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 decreased by 6 yuan/ton. [1] 3.3 Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1696 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1696 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1670 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1672 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1682 yuan/ton, and the position was 200,353 lots. [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - In the medium - to - long - term, pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term attention should be paid to the callback risk, as the recent decline in coal prices has brought some callback pressure to the coal - chemical industry. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the strategy should focus on buying on dips. The low valuation of urea is a result of the market's consensus on the pressure of over - supply and demand, but the urea price is supported at low levels, and its price bottom may gradually become clear [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On December 5th compared to December 4th, UR01 decreased by 15 yuan/ton (-0.89%) to 1673 yuan/ton, UR05 decreased by 9 yuan/ton (-0.52%) to 1736 yuan/ton, and UR09 decreased by 11 yuan/ton (-0.62%) to 1752 yuan/ton [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: In Shandong, it increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.58%) to 1720 yuan/ton; in Shanxi, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.64%) to 1560 yuan/ton; in Henan and Hebei, there was no change; in Northeast China, there was no change; in Jiangsu, it increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.59%) to 1710 yuan/ton [1] - **Upstream Costs**: The anthracite coal prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Downstream Prices**: The compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Shandong increased by 30 yuan/ton (0.97%) to 3130 yuan/ton, and in Henan, it increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.38%) to 2650 yuan/ton. The melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 19 yuan/ton to - 16 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 decreased by 6 yuan/ton to - 63 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1696 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1696 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1670 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1672 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1682 yuan/ton, and the position was 200353 lots [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - In the medium - to - long - term, focus on buying on dips [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core View of the Report - Short - term attention should be paid to the risk of price correction, and the strategy should still focus on buying on dips. Urea's valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. However, the new round of export quotas will relieve the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price. The low price may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market. The bottom of the urea price may gradually become clear, and medium - and long - term investors should focus on buying opportunities on dips [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01: On December 4, it was 1688.00 yuan/ton, down 4.00 yuan (-0.24%) from December 3 [1] - UR05: On December 4, it was 1745.00 yuan/ton, down 3.00 yuan (-0.17%) from December 3 [1] - UR09: On December 4, it was 1763.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan (-0.28%) from December 3 [1] Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - Shandong: On December 4, it was 1710.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan (1.79%) from December 3 [1] - Shanxi: On December 4, it was 1570.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan (1.95%) from December 3 [1] - Henan: On December 4, it was 1710.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan (1.18%) from December 3 [1] - Hebei: On December 4, it was 1730.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan (1.17%) from December 3 [1] - Northeast: On December 4, it was 1740.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] - Jiangsu: On December 4, it was 1700.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan (1.19%) from December 3 [1] Basis and Spreads - Basis (Shandong Spot - UR): On December 4, it was - 35.00 yuan/ton, up 33.00 yuan from December 3 [1] - Spread (01 - 05): On December 4, it was - 57.00 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan from December 3 [1] Upstream Costs - Henan Anthracite Coal Price: On December 4, it was 1030.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] - Shanxi Anthracite Coal Price: On December 4, it was 930.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] Downstream Prices - Compound Fertilizer (45%S) Price in Shandong: On December 4, it was 3100.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan (1.31%) from December 3 [1] - Compound Fertilizer (45%S) Price in Henan: On December 4, it was 2640.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan (0.76%) from December 3 [1] - Melamine Price in Shandong: On December 4, it was 5217.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] - Melamine Price in Jiangsu: On December 4, it was 5250.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1695 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1710 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1682 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1688 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1694 yuan/ton. The持仓 volume of 2601 was 209270 lots [1] Trading Strategy - Medium - and long - term investors should focus on buying opportunities on dips [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term attention should be paid to the callback risk, and it is still recommended to go long on dips. The low valuation of urea reflects the current supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, but from a driving perspective, the price is supported at low levels, and the bottom of the urea price may gradually become clear. Long - term investors should focus on long - entry opportunities on dips [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Price (Closing Price) - UR01: On December 4, it was 1,688 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan or 0.24% from December 3 [1] - UR05: On December 4, it was 1,745 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.17% from December 3 [1] - UR09: On December 4, it was 1,763 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.28% from December 3 [1] Domestic Spot Price (Small - Granule) - Shandong: On December 4, it was 1,710 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.79% from December 3 [1] - Shanxi: On December 4, it was 1,570 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.95% from December 3 [1] - Henan: On December 4, it was 1,710 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 1.18% from December 3 [1] - Hebei: On December 4, it was 1,730 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 1.17% from December 3 [1] - Northeast: On December 4, it was 1,740 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] - Jiangsu: On December 4, it was 1,700 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 1.19% from December 3 [1] Basis and Spread - Direct spread (Shandong spot - UR): On December 4, it was - 35 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan from December 3 [1] - Spread (01 - 05): On December 4, it was - 57 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from December 3 [1] Upstream Cost - Henan anthracite price: On December 4, it was 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] - Shanxi anthracite price: On December 4, it was 930 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] Downstream Price - Compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong: On December 4, it was 3,100 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 1.31% from December 3 [1] - Compound fertilizer (45%S) in Henan: On December 4, it was 2,640 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.76% from December 3 [1] - Melamine price in Shandong: On December 4, it was 5,217 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] - Melamine price in Jiangsu: On December 4, it was 5,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1,695 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,710 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,682 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,688 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,694 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 209,270 lots [1] Long - Short Logic - Urea's rebound from the bottom has been small, and the valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current supply - strong and demand - weak pattern. A new round of export quotas will ease the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and winter reserve demand will support the price, and low prices may stimulate reserve - holding enterprises to enter the market [1] Trading Strategy - Long - term investors should focus on long - entry opportunities on dips [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The current bottom of urea prices may gradually become clear. The low valuation of urea is a result of the market's consensus on the pressure of supply - demand surplus, but from a driving perspective, urea prices are supported at low levels. Strategically, pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips in the medium - to - long term [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01: 1692.00 yuan/ton on December 3, up 5.00 yuan (0.30%) from December 2 [1] - UR05: 1748.00 yuan/ton on December 3, down 4.00 yuan (-0.23%) from December 2 [1] - UR09: 1768.00 yuan/ton on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] Domestic Spot Prices (Small Granules) - Shandong: 1680.00 yuan/ton on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] - Shanxi: 1540.00 yuan/ton on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] - Henan: 1690.00 yuan/ton on December 3, up 10.00 yuan (0.60%) from December 2 [1] - Hebei: 1710.00 yuan/ton on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] - Northeast: 1740.00 yuan/ton on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] - Jiangsu: 1680.00 yuan/ton on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] Basis and Spreads - Shandong spot - UR basis: -68.00 yuan/ton on December 3, up 4.00 yuan from December 2 [1] - 01 - 05 spread: -56.00 yuan/ton on December 3, up 9.00 yuan from December 2 [1] Upstream Costs - Anthracite prices: 1030.00 yuan/ton in Henan on December 3, unchanged from December 2; 930.00 yuan/ton in Shanxi on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) prices: 3060.00 yuan/ton in Shandong on December 3, unchanged from December 2; 2620.00 yuan/ton in Henan on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] - Melamine prices: 5217.00 yuan/ton in Shandong on December 3, unchanged from December 2; 5250.00 yuan/ton in Jiangsu on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1684 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1697 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1679 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1692 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1690 yuan/ton [1] Multi - Empty Logic - From a valuation perspective, the rebound of urea from the bottom is not large, and the valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. From a driving perspective, the new round of export quotas will alleviate the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price, and low prices may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market [1] Trading Strategy - Pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips in the medium - to - long term [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - The current bottom of urea prices may gradually become clear. The low valuation of urea is a result of the market's consensus on the pressure of oversupply in supply and demand. However, from the perspective of driving factors, urea prices are supported at low levels. In the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to opportunities for buying on dips [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - **Urea Futures Prices**: On December 2, UR01 closed at 1,687 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan (0.72%) from December 1; UR05 closed at 1,752 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan (0.46%); UR09 closed at 1,768 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan (0.28%) [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: Shandong was 1,680 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.59%); Shanxi was 1,540 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.65%); Henan and Hebei remained unchanged; Northeast was 1,740 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan (1.16%); Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of Shandong spot - UR was -72 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread was -65 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [1]. - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong was 3,060 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.33%); the price of another fertilizer was 2,620 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan (0.77%); the price of melamine in Shandong was 5,217 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan (0.52%); in Jiangsu, it was 0 yuan/ton, down 5,200 yuan (-100%) [1]. 3.2 Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1,680 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,689 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,671 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,687 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,682 yuan/ton. The position volume was 219,302 lots [1]. 3.3 Multi - Empty Logic - **Valuation**: The rebound of urea from the bottom is not large, and the valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand [1]. - **Driving Factors**: A new round of export quotas will alleviate the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to a certain extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price. Low prices may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market [1].