Group 1 - The Chinese imported automobile market is experiencing a continuous decline, with total imports expected to be only 220,000 units in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 32% [1] - Since reaching a peak of 1.43 million imports in 2014, the market has been on a downward trend, with a 12% year-on-year decline in 2024, bringing imports down to 700,000 units [1] - The decline is attributed to the rise of the domestic automotive industry and the wave of electrification [1] Group 2 - Traditional luxury car brands, particularly the German trio (BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Audi), are facing significant challenges, with BMW deliveries down 15.5% to 317,900 units, Mercedes-Benz down 19% to 293,200 units, and Audi down 10.2% to 287,600 units [3] - In contrast, domestic new energy luxury vehicles are rising sharply, with Li Auto delivering 204,000 units and NIO delivering 74,000 units in the same period [3] - In the 300,000-400,000 yuan market, new energy vehicles achieved a market share of 52.5% in July, surpassing traditional fuel vehicles for the first time [3] Group 3 - Despite the challenges, traditional luxury brands still maintain a loyal customer base, with a market share of 58.7% in July, down from 60.2% in March [4] - The slow pace of electrification among traditional luxury brands is evident, with imported new energy passenger vehicles accounting for only 2% of the market in the first half of 2025, an 80% year-on-year decline [4] - Policy changes, such as the adjustment of luxury car tax thresholds, have led to a significant drop in sales for some models, with declines exceeding 20% [4] Group 4 - The future of the Chinese imported automobile market will be characterized by both challenges and opportunities, with the competition between traditional luxury and domestic luxury brands unlikely to end soon [5] - Domestic brands are leading in electrification, making it difficult for traditional ultra-luxury brands to catch up [5] - The market feedback indicates that high-end positioning now relies on technological strength and ecosystem development rather than solely on brand prestige [5]

编者按：当BBA和雷克萨斯在豪华汽车市场不再强势，自主品牌新能源豪车强势崛起，单纯依靠品牌底蕴和机械素质又还能守住多少市场份额？燃油车 命运的齿轮早已开始转动，一场关乎万亿产业链的博弈将走向何方？ 随着电动化进程的深入，传统豪华燃油车也站在了新的十字路口。 官方数据显示，今年上半年，包括BBA在内的多个豪华品牌在华销量呈现下滑态势。中国汽车流通协会乘联分会的数据也表明，今年上半年我国进口汽 车尤其是进口豪车的数量也下滑明显。 在传统豪华品牌销量下滑的同时，新能源豪车开始后来居上，尤其是自主品牌旗下的豪华汽车正在抢占更多的市场份额。在销量榜中，30万元至40万元的 价格区间里，新能源豪华汽车正在占据更多席位。传统豪华油车的市场格局正被改写。 销量下滑 "这是近期少见的1月-6月巨大下滑。"这是乘联分会主席崔东树发表的关于进口汽车情况的文章中，对于今年上半年进口汽车数量的描述。 崔东树指出，今年6月我国进口汽车4.3万辆，同比下滑30%，环比5月下降9%。2025年1月-6月，我国进口汽车22万辆，同比下降32%。 回顾过去十年，进口汽车可谓大起大落。乘联分会的数据显示，2014年，我国进口汽车数量达到143万辆 ...

证券研究报告 谁在坚持买油车？ 证券分析师：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱： huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-60199793 2025年8月15日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 报告核心结论（1） 注：样本量不足够大或引起数据的偏差，建议多渠道交叉验证 2 ◼ 报告研究方法论：基于抽样原则，样本量筛选原则：选取当下油车市场各个价位热门经典车型， 7大品牌13款车型26名车主。分别是：奥迪（A6L、Q5L），宝马（3系、5系），奔驰GLC，大 众（速腾、帕萨特、途观L），丰田（卡罗拉、RAV4、凯美瑞），日产轩逸、通用昂科威。 ◼ 为何这些用户坚持买油车？1）油车性价比高！受访的26位车主几乎每个都认同这点，甚至觉得 油车特别香。2）车子本质还是A点-B点代步工具，万一要开十年以上的话，电车的电池中途肯定 要更换，这样的话全生命周期成本，电车不一定比油车便宜。3）接近50%车主并不具备拥有专 用充电桩条件。4）认为电车尤其是电池技术并不成熟。5）跑长途电车的里程焦虑。 ◼ 油车用户怎么看电车优势？1）承认电车的单公里成本确实要便宜，但如果自己每年公里 ...

Core Insights - The sales rankings of popular car models across various regions in China for the first half of 2025 have been released, highlighting regional preferences and trends in consumer behavior [1] Group 1: Regional Sales Trends - In the Yangtze River Delta region, Tesla's Model Y leads the sales chart, followed by Xiaomi's SU7 and XPeng's MONA M03, indicating a strong preference for new energy vehicles in this area [3][4] - In Beijing, Tesla's Model Y also tops the sales with 10,649 units sold, while BYD's Qin PLUS and other models dominate the top six positions [6] - The Shandong province shows a strong demand for economical electric vehicles, with models like Wuling Hongguang MINIEV and Changan Lumin frequently appearing in the top five [8] Group 2: Model Performance - The top-selling models in the Yangtze River Delta include Tesla Model Y (10,649 units), BYD Qin PLUS (6,265 units), and Volkswagen Passat (4,955 units), showcasing a mix of new energy and traditional vehicles [4] - In Guangdong province, 11 out of the top 20 models are new energy vehicles, with GAC AION S leading the sales [10] - In the Northeast region, BYD's new energy models are prominent, with the Qin PLUS being the best-seller in Heilongjiang province [11] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The luxury segment remains strong in the Yangtze River Delta, with models like BMW 3 Series and Mercedes-Benz GLC maintaining their market presence [3] - In regions with less developed charging infrastructure, such as Tibet, traditional fuel SUVs dominate the market, indicating a challenge for new energy vehicle penetration [13] - The overall trend shows a growing acceptance of new energy vehicles across various provinces, with BYD's models frequently appearing in the top sales lists [8][12]

Core Viewpoint - Audi's global CEO announced the withdrawal of the plan to stop producing internal combustion engine vehicles by 2033, indicating a shift towards new generations of internal combustion and plug-in hybrid models, reflecting the deep contradictions faced by traditional luxury car manufacturers in their electrification transition [1] Sales and Profit Pressure - Audi's global sales are projected to decline by 11.8% in 2024, the largest drop among the BBA group, with electric vehicle sales down 8% to 164,000 units, accounting for only 9.81% of total sales [2] - The brand's operating profit is expected to plummet by 45.3% in 2024, with an operating margin falling to a historical low of 4.6% [2] - In China, Audi's sales decreased by 10.9%, losing nearly 80,000 units, and profit contributions fell by 28.8% [2] Market Demand and Profitability Challenges - The strategic adjustment is driven by uneven global electric vehicle market development, with China achieving a 47.6% penetration rate in 2024, while Audi's electric vehicle sales face bottlenecks [3] - In North America, the electrification process is slower, and Europe saw a 5.9% decline in electric vehicle sales in 2024 [3][4] - The cancellation of subsidies in Germany led to a 33% drop in electric vehicle sales, with overall European electric vehicle sales plummeting by 43.9% in 2024 [4] Technical Constraints - Audi's electrification strategy relies on the PPE and SSP platforms, both facing production delays, with the Q6 e-tron delivery pushed back by 18 months due to software issues [5] - The SSP platform is not expected to be operational until 2029, while the optimization of fuel vehicle technology continues to provide a viable alternative [5] Industry Competition and Profit Balancing - Audi faces strong competition from emerging companies like Tesla, which has superior range capabilities compared to Audi's electric models [6] - The high logistics costs and low production efficiency at the Brussels plant, along with high labor costs in Europe, make maintaining traditional manufacturing increasingly uneconomical [7] - Audi's decision to pause its full electrification plan allows it to leverage profits from fuel vehicles to sustain operations and reduce R&D pressure [7] Industry-Wide Strategic Shift - Audi's strategic shift reflects a broader trend among traditional automakers moving from a "technology worship" approach to a "market-oriented" strategy [8] - Major automakers like BMW and Toyota are questioning the absolute necessity of full electrification, indicating a collective conservative shift in the industry [8][9] - This trend suggests that traditional manufacturers are adapting to regional demand differences through differentiated product offerings while maintaining fuel vehicle production as a competitive advantage [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of larger wheel sizes on consumer vehicles, highlighting that while larger wheels may enhance visual appeal, they can negatively impact performance, comfort, and cost-effectiveness [1][3]. Group 1: Wheel Size and Vehicle Performance - Larger wheel sizes have become more common in modern vehicles, with entry-level cars typically featuring 14 to 15-inch wheels, while higher-end models often come with 19 to 20-inch wheels [3]. - The weight of larger wheels significantly increases; for example, a 15-inch wheel weighs approximately 5.3 kg, while a 16-inch wheel weighs about 6.6 kg, marking a 25% increase [4]. - Increased unsprung mass from larger wheels can lead to reduced handling and comfort, as the suspension system must work harder to respond to road conditions [6]. Group 2: Energy Efficiency and Driving Dynamics - Larger wheels contribute to higher rolling resistance, which consumes more energy during vehicle operation. This is due to the increased contact area with the ground [7]. - The moment of inertia of larger wheels is greater, requiring more energy for acceleration and deceleration, which can burden the vehicle's powertrain and energy recovery systems [7]. - For instance, the Ideal MEGA uses 18-inch wheels to enhance range, while larger wheels on the L series negatively impact efficiency [7]. Group 3: Comfort and Cost Implications - Smaller wheels provide benefits such as lower unsprung mass and thicker sidewalls, which enhance ride comfort and improve energy efficiency [10]. - The cost of tires correlates with size; larger tires are more expensive both at purchase and during replacement, leading to higher overall maintenance costs [12]. - While larger wheels can improve braking performance and handling in certain conditions, they may undermine the energy efficiency advantages of electric vehicles [14].

Core Viewpoint - The significant price reductions of Porsche vehicles, particularly the Cayenne and Panamera, reflect a broader transformation in the luxury car market under the pressure of electric vehicles, challenging the long-standing price stability of traditional luxury brands [1][4]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - Porsche has implemented substantial price cuts across various models, with discounts reaching as low as 35% in regions like Shenzhen, where the 2025 Cayenne can be purchased for approximately 75 million yuan after financing [2][3]. - Other luxury brands such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi are also adjusting their prices, with notable discounts on models like the Mercedes GLB and BMW i3, indicating a widespread trend in the luxury car market [5][6]. Group 2: Sales Performance - Porsche's sales in China have been declining since peaking at 95,700 units in 2021, dropping to 79,300 units in 2023, and projected to fall to 56,900 units in 2024, with a staggering 42% year-on-year decline in Q1 2025 [5][6]. - Other luxury brands are experiencing similar downturns, with Mercedes-Benz's sales down 10% in China and both BMW and Audi also reporting declines [6]. Group 3: Consumer Reactions - Consumer responses to Porsche's price cuts are mixed, with some viewing it as an opportunity to purchase luxury vehicles at lower prices, while others express concerns about potential impacts on brand image and product quality [3][4]. - The price adjustments may create a temporary surge in sales, but analysts suggest that this is not a sustainable long-term strategy for luxury brands [4][6]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The luxury car market is undergoing a value system reconstruction as traditional luxury brands face competition from domestic electric vehicles that offer advanced technology and performance [4][6]. - Analysts emphasize the need for luxury brands to accelerate their electric vehicle offerings and enhance technological features to remain competitive in an evolving market landscape [6].

Core Insights - The luxury car market is witnessing a brand crisis, with BMW facing challenges similar to those that led to Audi's decline [1][2] - BMW's sales strategy has shifted, leading to a significant drop in customer loyalty and brand value [4][14] - The rise of domestic brands like AITO and Li Auto is capturing market share from BMW, particularly in the SUV segment [2][3] Sales and Market Dynamics - BMW's X5, once a profitable model, has seen its price drop to 540,000 RMB, yet it struggles to sell [2][3] - The company exited the price war last year, which further alienated potential customers who perceived BMW as becoming more expensive [3][4] - The rapid expansion of BMW's dealership network from 460 to over 600 between 2014 and 2017 was initially successful but has led to internal competition among dealers [5][6][9] Dealer and Pricing Strategy - BMW's dealer model, which offers 90% of the MSRP as wholesale price, has created a competitive environment where dealers undercut each other [7][9] - The introduction of the new 5 Series has resulted in disappointing sales, with only 4,000 units sold monthly, leading to inventory pressure on dealers [10][11] - The price cuts initiated by dealers to move inventory have eroded BMW's pricing integrity, making it difficult to maintain higher price points [11][12] Brand Perception and Product Development - BMW's brand value and premium pricing ability are declining, with consumers now expecting lower prices [14][20] - The company is struggling to adapt to market changes, with its new models failing to resonate with consumers compared to competitors like Mercedes-Benz [16][20] - BMW's slow response to the electric vehicle market and reliance on traditional performance metrics have left it vulnerable to newer brands [18][19] R&D and Market Strategy - BMW's development teams in Germany are disconnected from the preferences of Chinese consumers, leading to products that do not meet local market demands [21][22] - The company is facing internal challenges regarding decision-making and product development, which are hampering its ability to compete effectively [25][26] - Competitors like Mercedes-Benz and Audi are actively adapting their strategies to better align with Chinese consumer preferences, while BMW remains stagnant [24][26]

Core Viewpoint - The claim of "50% off on seven Mercedes models" is misleading, as various models are offered with significant discounts, but not to the extent of half-price sales [1][2]. Group 1: Discounts and Promotions - Multiple Mercedes models currently have varying degrees of discounts, with cash discounts and additional subsidies available, leading to substantial overall savings [1][2]. - For example, the GLA model has a cash discount of 120,000 yuan, and when combined with trade-in or scrapping subsidies, the total discount can exceed 150,000 yuan [2][3]. - Other models like the GLB and CLA also have significant discounts, with the CLA 200 series offering around 120,000 yuan in discounts, plus additional subsidies [2][3]. Group 2: Market Trends - The trend of increasing discounts is not limited to Mercedes; other luxury brands like BMW and Audi are also offering substantial promotions, with discounts reaching up to 180,000 yuan on certain models [4][5]. - The luxury car market is experiencing pressure on sales, with Mercedes' delivery volume down 7% year-on-year in Q1, and similar declines observed for BMW and Audi [5]. - The rise of new energy vehicles is contributing to the increased promotional efforts for traditional luxury fuel vehicles, as they face competition from emerging luxury brands [6].

Group 1 - GAC Group collaborates with Alibaba Cloud to accelerate overseas market expansion, addressing challenges in infrastructure, ecosystem services, and intelligent product capabilities [1] - The partnership with Alibaba Cloud enhances GAC's competitiveness in international markets, particularly in compliance and infrastructure development [1] - This strategic alliance may boost the overall automotive industry's influence in global markets and promote the development of intelligent connected vehicles [1] Group 2 - Li Auto establishes Changzhou Car Lake Construction Co., Ltd. with a registered capital of 25 million RMB, indicating a strategic move into infrastructure and real estate management [2] - The new company is fully owned by Li Auto's affiliate, which may help optimize supply chain management and resource integration [2] - This initiative supports Li Auto's market expansion and could enhance its brand influence in the smart mobility and new energy sectors [2] Group 3 - Four senior management members of Dongfeng Motor Corporation are under investigation for serious violations, highlighting internal governance and compliance issues [3] - This incident raises concerns about the company's governance structure and operational transparency, potentially affecting investor confidence [3] - The frequency of high-level personnel changes may introduce uncertainty in the competitive landscape and regulatory environment of the automotive industry [3] Group 4 - FAW-Volkswagen recalls over 130,000 Audi vehicles due to software issues in the instrument cluster that may pose safety risks [4] - The recall includes 100,899 domestic A6L vehicles and 33,024 imported models, reflecting the company's cautious approach to product safety and quality control [4] - Frequent recalls could impact consumer confidence and brand image, prompting manufacturers to reassess their market strategies and focus on product quality and after-sales service [4] Group 5 - XPeng Motors launches the MONA M03 Max featuring a "human-machine co-driving" function, showcasing advancements in intelligent driving technology [5][6] - The new feature allows users to adjust vehicle trajectories while maintaining system engagement, enhancing user experience and safety [6] - This innovation is expected to attract more consumers and positively impact XPeng's brand perception in the competitive smart vehicle market [5][6]