Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the remarkable transformation of Wancheng Group under the leadership of its 90s-born general manager, Wang Zenning, who has successfully shifted the company's focus from mushroom production to the snack retail sector, achieving significant revenue growth and establishing a competitive position in the market [4][5][6]. Group 1: Company Overview - Wancheng Group, originally focused on mushroom production, has transitioned to the snack retail industry, becoming the first listed company in this sector on the A-share market [15][16]. - The company operates over 15,000 stores under various snack brands, with Wang Zenning taking the helm as general manager in 2025 [6][7]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Wancheng Group's revenue is projected to reach between 50 billion to 52.8 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 54.66% to 63.32% [9][10]. - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be between 1.23 billion to 1.4 billion yuan, with a significant increase in profitability due to strategic acquisitions and market expansion [10][11]. Group 3: Market Position and Strategy - The company has rapidly gained market share in the snack sector, becoming a key competitor to Mingming Hen Mang, which recently went public in Hong Kong [6][14]. - Wancheng Group's strategic acquisitions, including brands like Laopo Daren and others, have solidified its position as a leading player in the snack retail market [16][22]. Group 4: Leadership and Vision - Wang Zenning, recognized for his intelligence and strategic vision, has been pivotal in the company's transformation and growth, earning a spot on the Hurun Rich List in 2025 [9][10]. - The leadership transition within the Wang family marks a generational shift, with Wang Zenning continuing to drive the company's aggressive acquisition strategy [18][19].

证券研究报告 证券分析师 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 张东雪 SAC：S1350525060001 zhangdongxue@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： 食品饮料 | 休闲食品 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 05 日 资料来源：公司公告，华源证券研究所预测 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 万辰集团发布 2025 业绩预告，归母净利率提升。万辰集团发布 25 年业绩预告，2025 预计实现收入 500-528 亿元，同比增长 54.66%-63.32%；实现归母净利润 12.3- 14.0 亿元，同比重组后增加 222.38%-266.94%；实现扣非净利润 11.6-13.3 亿元， 同比重组后增加 245.02%-295.58%。根据业绩预告，归母净利率中枢达 2.56%，相 比 2025 年前三季度归母净利率 2.34%，进一步提升。 联系人 量贩零食零售业务持续规模化扩张：公司量贩零食门店数量持续增长，旗下"好想来 品牌零食"市场领先地位和规模效应日益稳固。根据公司官网 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Wancheng Group, forecasts a significant increase in revenue and net profit for 2025, driven by store expansion and improvements in operational efficiency [1][2] Group 1: Financial Projections - The company expects to achieve operating revenue between 50 billion to 52.8 billion yuan in 2025, with net profit attributable to shareholders projected between 1.23 billion to 1.4 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Growth Drivers - The company attributes its growth to two main factors: 1. Continuous increase in store numbers and the establishment of its "Haoxianglai" snack brand as a nationally recognized chain, enhancing market position and scale effects [1] 2. Recovery in the edible mushroom industry, with improved sales prices and gross margins expected in the second half of 2025 [1] Group 3: Operational Strategies - The company is focusing on core competitiveness by strengthening supply chain management, logistics, digitalization, and brand empowerment, while also optimizing long-term incentive mechanisms to boost organizational vitality [1] - The company is expanding its store network while enhancing product capabilities and developing proprietary brands, supported by member ecosystems and innovative marketing strategies [2]

Group 1 - The company, Wancheng Group, forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.23 billion to 1.4 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 319.05% to 376.97% [1] - The primary driver of this performance is the rapid growth of the retail snack business, with the "Haoxianglai" brand becoming a nationally recognized chain [1] - The company has achieved strong regional advantages across multiple provinces and cities in China, significantly increasing sales scale compared to 2024 [1] Group 2 - The company is focusing on enhancing its core competencies by systematically strengthening its supply chain, product capabilities, warehousing logistics, digitalization, and organizational management [1] - The sales scale and profit margin have significantly improved, with the snack business expected to achieve operating revenue of 50 billion to 52 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year growth of 57.28% to 63.57% [1] - After accounting for stock-based compensation expenses, the net profit is projected to be between 2.2 billion and 2.6 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 4.4% to 5.1% [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Insights - The company is positioned in the rapidly growing snack food market, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.9% from 2024 to 2029, reaching a market size of 5.38 trillion yuan [5][14]. - The penetration rate of the bulk snack industry remains low, with expectations to increase from 3.2% in 2024 to 11.4% by 2029, indicating significant growth potential [5][15]. - The company has transitioned from a mushroom cultivation business to a bulk snack retailer, achieving a remarkable GMV growth of 282% from 2023 to 2024 [5][40]. - The company has a strong market presence with 15,365 stores across 29 provinces, particularly dominating in the Yangtze River Delta and surrounding areas [5][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The snack food retail market in China is expected to grow from 3.17 trillion yuan in 2019 to 4.05 trillion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 5.0% [14]. - The bulk snack segment is the fastest-growing channel, with a CAGR of 77.9% from 2019 to 2024 [15]. 2. Company Development - The company has rapidly expanded its bulk snack business through acquisitions, integrating brands like "Lao Po Da Ren" and rebranding others under "Hao Xiang Lai" [5][40]. - The company’s bulk business has become its primary revenue source, contributing nearly 99% of total revenue by Q3 2025, with significant year-on-year growth [5][6]. 3. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 50.30 billion, 59.78 billion, and 68.86 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.15 billion, 1.72 billion, and 2.01 billion yuan [6][7]. - The company’s net profit margin for the bulk business has been steadily increasing, reaching 5.33% by Q3 2025 [5][6]. 4. Operational Efficiency - The company employs a streamlined supply chain model that reduces costs and enhances efficiency, with a significant reduction in markup rates compared to traditional retail channels [5][23]. - The focus on digital management systems has improved inventory turnover and reduced waste, contributing to overall profitability [5][37].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Insights - The company is positioned in the rapidly growing snack food market, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.9% from 2024 to 2029, reaching a market size of 5.38 trillion yuan [5][14]. - The penetration rate of the bulk snack industry remains low, with expectations to increase from 3.2% in 2024 to 11.4% by 2029, indicating significant growth potential [5][15]. - The company has transitioned from a mushroom cultivation business to a bulk snack retailer, achieving a remarkable GMV growth of 282% from 2023 to 2024 [5][40]. - The company has a strong market presence with 15,365 stores across 29 provinces, leading in the Yangtze River Delta and surrounding areas [5][40]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The snack food retail market in China is expected to grow from 3.17 trillion yuan in 2019 to 4.05 trillion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 5.0% [14]. - The bulk snack retail sector is the fastest-growing channel, with a projected CAGR of 36.5% from 2024 to 2029 [15][17]. Company Development - The company has rapidly expanded its bulk snack business through acquisitions, integrating brands like "Lao Xiao Chan" and "Lai You Pin" under the "Hao Xiang Lai" brand [5][40]. - The company’s bulk business has become its primary revenue source, contributing nearly 99% of total revenue by Q3 2025, with revenues of 318 billion yuan and 362 billion yuan for 2024 and Q1-Q3 2025, respectively [5][6]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 503.01 billion yuan, 597.82 billion yuan, and 688.63 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 11.46 billion yuan, 17.16 billion yuan, and 20.09 billion yuan [6][7]. - The net profit margin for the bulk business has been steadily increasing, reaching 5.33% by Q3 2025, with the bulk business contributing 96% of the company's total net profit [5][6].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Wancheng Group plans to acquire 100% equity of Nanjing Zhongcheng Information Technology Co., Ltd. from Jiangsu Haozailai E-commerce Co., Ltd. for 54.0159 million yuan to enhance its intellectual property layout related to the "New Zero Help" initiative, constituting a related party transaction [1] - The acquisition aims to unify control over the "New Zero Help" software and associated intellectual property rights, which is essential for the company's long-term strategic planning and stable business operations [1] - Haozailai's actual controller, Peng Dejian, holds over 5% of Wancheng Group's shares and is a concerted actor with the controlling shareholder, indicating the transaction's related party nature [1] Group 2 - Wancheng Group, established in December 2011 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in April 2021, focuses on the industrialized cultivation of edible fungi and biotechnology research, being a key national leading enterprise in agricultural industrialization [2] - In response to market changes and consumer demand, Wancheng Group entered the mass snack industry in 2022, positioning itself with a focus on convenience, affordability, and high cost-performance [2] - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 9.3 billion yuan in 2023 to 32.33 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 247.9%, with a GMV of 42.6 billion yuan in 2024, up 282% from 2023 [2] Group 3 - Wancheng Group submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on September 23, 2025, aiming to raise funds for expanding and upgrading its store network, enriching its product portfolio, improving logistics efficiency, and enhancing digital infrastructure [3] - As of June 30, 2025, Wancheng Group operates over 15,000 stores across 29 provinces in China, establishing a comprehensive and deeply penetrated store network [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by its focus on high-quality development in the snack retail chain business [1][2]. Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 36.562 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 855 million yuan, up 917.04% [1][2]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 13.980 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.15%, and a net profit of 383 million yuan, up 361.22% [1][2]. Business Expansion - The company is actively expanding its store network, with a total of 1,468 new stores opened in the first half of 2025, despite 259 closures due to operational reasons and 40 due to non-operational reasons, resulting in a total of 15,365 stores by mid-2025 [2][3]. - The company is focusing on regions such as the Yangtze River Delta and North China while also expanding rapidly in Northeast, Northwest, and South China to enhance its national presence [2]. Profitability Improvement - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 11.69%, an increase of 1.26 percentage points year-on-year, with net profit margin rising to 4.35%, up 2.68 percentage points [2][3]. - The company has improved its operational efficiency, with reductions in sales, management, and financial expense ratios, contributing to enhanced profitability [2]. Brand Recognition - The "Good Idea" snack brand has become the first in the industry to exceed 10,000 stores, establishing itself as a well-known national chain brand [3]. - The brand's diverse product offerings, high cost-performance ratio, and convenient shopping experience have increased consumer recognition and attracted quality franchisees [3]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 49.818 billion yuan, 59.679 billion yuan, and 67.962 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 54.10%, 19.79%, and 13.88% [4]. - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 1.049 billion yuan, 1.471 billion yuan, and 1.935 billion yuan, with growth rates of 257.45%, 40.17%, and 31.58% [4].

Core Insights - The snack retail industry is witnessing a competitive race for the title of the first snack stock, with two major brands, Wancheng Group and Mingming Hen Mang, filing for IPOs within a short span of time [1] - Both companies have shown significant revenue growth, with Wancheng Group projecting revenues of 5.49 billion, 9.29 billion, and 32.33 billion CNY from 2022 to 2024, while Mingming Hen Mang expects revenues of 4.29 billion, 10.30 billion, and 39.34 billion CNY in the same period [1] - The rapid expansion of these brands is marked by a high number of franchise stores, with Wancheng Group aiming for 15,365 stores and Mingming Hen Mang claiming over 20,000 stores by mid-2025 [1] Expansion Strategies - Wancheng Group and Mingming Hen Mang have adopted aggressive expansion strategies, with Wancheng adding nearly 10,000 stores in just one year, averaging 26 new stores per day [3][4] - The companies rely heavily on franchise models, with Wancheng stating that 99.4% of its stores are franchises, indicating a high dependency on franchisee performance for revenue [4] Financial Performance - Both companies exhibit low profit margins compared to other sectors, with Mingming Hen Mang's gross margins ranging from 7.45% to 7.62% from 2022 to 2024, while Wancheng's gross margin is projected to be around 10.9% in 2024 [5] - The average payback period for franchisees has extended to about 29 months, indicating increasing challenges in achieving profitability [7] Market Challenges - The snack retail market is becoming saturated, leading to increased competition and a decline in profitability for franchisees, with many reporting losses and closures [9][10] - Franchisees are facing difficulties in maintaining sales, with many unable to achieve the necessary monthly revenue to break even, leading to a rise in store closures [8][9] Industry Trends - The industry is experiencing a shift as brands explore new growth avenues, such as diversifying product offerings to include trendy items like blind boxes and collectibles [11] - There are indications that brands like Wancheng Group are considering transforming into comprehensive supermarket formats to adapt to changing market dynamics [11][12]

Core Insights - Wancheng Group, originally a mushroom business, has transformed into a snack retail giant with over 15,000 stores, achieving a revenue growth of over 100 times in three years, but faces challenges with a low net profit margin of approximately 2% and significant profit distribution to minority shareholders [1][2][3] - The company is undergoing a leadership transition following the detention and resignation of founder Wang Jiankun, with his sister Wang Liqing taking over as chairman and his son Wang Zenning becoming the general manager, establishing a family management structure [1][9] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Wancheng Group reported a revenue of 36.562 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 855 million yuan, up 917.04% [1] - Despite high revenue, the net profit margin remains low at 2.34%, with a net profit margin of only 4.35% [2] - The company’s revenue surged from approximately 359 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2022 to 36.562 billion yuan in the same period of 2025, indicating a significant growth trajectory [3] Business Strategy and Challenges - Wancheng Group's rapid expansion has led to a high cost structure, with operating costs rising in line with revenue growth, indicating a lack of economies of scale [4] - The company employs a low-price strategy to capture market share, resulting in a diluted profit margin and increased competition among stores [4][14] - The high asset-liability ratio of 66.35% as of the third quarter of 2025 raises concerns about financial stability, with a significant portion of liabilities being short-term [5] Governance and Management Issues - The governance structure is heavily influenced by family members, with four out of eight board members being from the Wang family, raising concerns about the independence of the board [9][12] - The recent leadership changes and the family-centric governance model may pose challenges for the company's IPO plans, as market confidence has been shaken by the founder's legal issues [11][12] - The profit distribution structure has led to a significant portion of profits being allocated to minority shareholders, particularly benefiting Wang Zenning, which could create distrust among other shareholders [6][7] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Wancheng Group's market position is threatened by increasing competition in the snack retail sector, with other brands like Mingming Hen Mang also pursuing IPOs and showing stronger financial performance [12] - The company faces risks from a saturated market where multiple brands compete for the same customer base, leading to potential store closures and reduced growth rates [12][14] - Quality control issues have emerged, with numerous consumer complaints regarding product safety and service, which could impact brand reputation and customer loyalty [14][15]