证券研究报告 证券分析师 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 张东雪 SAC：S1350525060001 zhangdongxue@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： 食品饮料 | 休闲食品 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 05 日 资料来源：公司公告，华源证券研究所预测 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 万辰集团发布 2025 业绩预告，归母净利率提升。万辰集团发布 25 年业绩预告，2025 预计实现收入 500-528 亿元，同比增长 54.66%-63.32%；实现归母净利润 12.3- 14.0 亿元，同比重组后增加 222.38%-266.94%；实现扣非净利润 11.6-13.3 亿元， 同比重组后增加 245.02%-295.58%。根据业绩预告，归母净利率中枢达 2.56%，相 比 2025 年前三季度归母净利率 2.34%，进一步提升。 联系人 量贩零食零售业务持续规模化扩张：公司量贩零食门店数量持续增长，旗下"好想来 品牌零食"市场领先地位和规模效应日益稳固。根据公司官网 ...

本报讯(记者桂小笋)1月29日晚间，福建万辰食品集团股份有限公司(以下简称"万辰集团（300972）")发 布了2025年业绩预告。公告显示，公司2025年预计实现营业收入500亿元至528亿元，预计归属于上市公 司股东的净利润为12.3亿元至14亿元。 万辰集团在报告期内"稳步扩张"的同时，坚持"精耕细作"，门店网络的广度和商品力及自有品牌开发能 力的深度，共同构成了其坚实基础，而会员生态与即时零售渠道拓展、代言人营销创新等则成为关键的 加速器，助力公司持续巩固市场地位。 其次，食用菌行业历经市场长期调整，2025年下半年企稳回暖。伴随市场行情向好，公司食用菌业务主 要产品销售价格、业务毛利率上升，经营业绩改善。 对于业绩增长的原因，公司从两方面进行了解读。首先，经过多年快速发展，公司门店数量持续增长， 旗下"好想来品牌零食"已成为全国知名连锁品牌，市场领先地位和规模效应日益稳固。2025年，公司在 全国多个省市取得较强的区域优势，销售规模较2024年大幅增加；在规模扩张的同时，公司聚焦核心竞 争力建设，系统性强化供应链与商品力、仓储物流体系、数字化及组织精细化管理、品牌市场赋能与会 员运营等关键环节，并健 ...

每经AI快讯，万辰集团1月29日晚间发布业绩预告，预计2025年归属于上市公司股东的净利润12.3亿元 ~14亿元，同比增长319.05%~376.97%。业绩变动主要原因是，量贩零食零售业务。经过多年快速发 展，公司门店数量持续增长，旗下"好想来品牌零食"已成为全国知名连锁品牌，市场领先地位和规模效 应日益稳固。2025年，公司在全国多个省市取得较强的区域优势，销售规模较2024年大幅增加；在规模 扩张的同时，公司聚焦核心竞争力建设，系统性强化供应链与商品力、仓储物流体系、数字化及组织精 细化管理、品牌市场赋能与会员运营等关键环节，并健全优化公司长效激励机制，充分激发组织活力与 团队动能。多措并举之下，公司的销售规模以及销售利润率显著上升，2025年量贩零食业务预计实现营 业收入500亿元~520亿元，同比增长57.28%~63.57%，加回计提的股份支付费用后实现净利润22亿元~26 亿元，净利润率为4.4%~5.1%。 （记者 曾健辉） 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——水贝黄金平台"杰我睿"兑付危机调查：40倍杠杆对赌，金价越涨平台越 亏！老板自称"还在深圳"，投资者：兑付方案本金打两折，无法接受 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Insights - The company is positioned in the rapidly growing snack food market, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.9% from 2024 to 2029, reaching a market size of 5.38 trillion yuan [5][14]. - The penetration rate of the bulk snack industry remains low, with expectations to increase from 3.2% in 2024 to 11.4% by 2029, indicating significant growth potential [5][15]. - The company has transitioned from a mushroom cultivation business to a bulk snack retailer, achieving a remarkable GMV growth of 282% from 2023 to 2024 [5][40]. - The company has a strong market presence with 15,365 stores across 29 provinces, particularly dominating in the Yangtze River Delta and surrounding areas [5][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The snack food retail market in China is expected to grow from 3.17 trillion yuan in 2019 to 4.05 trillion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 5.0% [14]. - The bulk snack segment is the fastest-growing channel, with a CAGR of 77.9% from 2019 to 2024 [15]. 2. Company Development - The company has rapidly expanded its bulk snack business through acquisitions, integrating brands like "Lao Po Da Ren" and rebranding others under "Hao Xiang Lai" [5][40]. - The company’s bulk business has become its primary revenue source, contributing nearly 99% of total revenue by Q3 2025, with significant year-on-year growth [5][6]. 3. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 50.30 billion, 59.78 billion, and 68.86 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.15 billion, 1.72 billion, and 2.01 billion yuan [6][7]. - The company’s net profit margin for the bulk business has been steadily increasing, reaching 5.33% by Q3 2025 [5][6]. 4. Operational Efficiency - The company employs a streamlined supply chain model that reduces costs and enhances efficiency, with a significant reduction in markup rates compared to traditional retail channels [5][23]. - The focus on digital management systems has improved inventory turnover and reduced waste, contributing to overall profitability [5][37].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Insights - The company is positioned in the rapidly growing snack food market, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.9% from 2024 to 2029, reaching a market size of 5.38 trillion yuan [5][14]. - The penetration rate of the bulk snack industry remains low, with expectations to increase from 3.2% in 2024 to 11.4% by 2029, indicating significant growth potential [5][15]. - The company has transitioned from a mushroom cultivation business to a bulk snack retailer, achieving a remarkable GMV growth of 282% from 2023 to 2024 [5][40]. - The company has a strong market presence with 15,365 stores across 29 provinces, leading in the Yangtze River Delta and surrounding areas [5][40]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The snack food retail market in China is expected to grow from 3.17 trillion yuan in 2019 to 4.05 trillion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 5.0% [14]. - The bulk snack retail sector is the fastest-growing channel, with a projected CAGR of 36.5% from 2024 to 2029 [15][17]. Company Development - The company has rapidly expanded its bulk snack business through acquisitions, integrating brands like "Lao Xiao Chan" and "Lai You Pin" under the "Hao Xiang Lai" brand [5][40]. - The company’s bulk business has become its primary revenue source, contributing nearly 99% of total revenue by Q3 2025, with revenues of 318 billion yuan and 362 billion yuan for 2024 and Q1-Q3 2025, respectively [5][6]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 503.01 billion yuan, 597.82 billion yuan, and 688.63 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 11.46 billion yuan, 17.16 billion yuan, and 20.09 billion yuan [6][7]. - The net profit margin for the bulk business has been steadily increasing, reaching 5.33% by Q3 2025, with the bulk business contributing 96% of the company's total net profit [5][6].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Wancheng Group plans to acquire 100% equity of Nanjing Zhongcheng Information Technology Co., Ltd. from Jiangsu Haozailai E-commerce Co., Ltd. for 54.0159 million yuan to enhance its intellectual property layout related to the "New Zero Help" initiative, constituting a related party transaction [1] - The acquisition aims to unify control over the "New Zero Help" software and associated intellectual property rights, which is essential for the company's long-term strategic planning and stable business operations [1] - Haozailai's actual controller, Peng Dejian, holds over 5% of Wancheng Group's shares and is a concerted actor with the controlling shareholder, indicating the transaction's related party nature [1] Group 2 - Wancheng Group, established in December 2011 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in April 2021, focuses on the industrialized cultivation of edible fungi and biotechnology research, being a key national leading enterprise in agricultural industrialization [2] - In response to market changes and consumer demand, Wancheng Group entered the mass snack industry in 2022, positioning itself with a focus on convenience, affordability, and high cost-performance [2] - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 9.3 billion yuan in 2023 to 32.33 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 247.9%, with a GMV of 42.6 billion yuan in 2024, up 282% from 2023 [2] Group 3 - Wancheng Group submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on September 23, 2025, aiming to raise funds for expanding and upgrading its store network, enriching its product portfolio, improving logistics efficiency, and enhancing digital infrastructure [3] - As of June 30, 2025, Wancheng Group operates over 15,000 stores across 29 provinces in China, establishing a comprehensive and deeply penetrated store network [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by its focus on high-quality development in the snack retail chain business [1][2]. Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 36.562 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 855 million yuan, up 917.04% [1][2]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 13.980 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.15%, and a net profit of 383 million yuan, up 361.22% [1][2]. Business Expansion - The company is actively expanding its store network, with a total of 1,468 new stores opened in the first half of 2025, despite 259 closures due to operational reasons and 40 due to non-operational reasons, resulting in a total of 15,365 stores by mid-2025 [2][3]. - The company is focusing on regions such as the Yangtze River Delta and North China while also expanding rapidly in Northeast, Northwest, and South China to enhance its national presence [2]. Profitability Improvement - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 11.69%, an increase of 1.26 percentage points year-on-year, with net profit margin rising to 4.35%, up 2.68 percentage points [2][3]. - The company has improved its operational efficiency, with reductions in sales, management, and financial expense ratios, contributing to enhanced profitability [2]. Brand Recognition - The "Good Idea" snack brand has become the first in the industry to exceed 10,000 stores, establishing itself as a well-known national chain brand [3]. - The brand's diverse product offerings, high cost-performance ratio, and convenient shopping experience have increased consumer recognition and attracted quality franchisees [3]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 49.818 billion yuan, 59.679 billion yuan, and 67.962 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 54.10%, 19.79%, and 13.88% [4]. - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 1.049 billion yuan, 1.471 billion yuan, and 1.935 billion yuan, with growth rates of 257.45%, 40.17%, and 31.58% [4].

Core Insights - The snack retail industry is witnessing a competitive race for the title of the first snack stock, with two major brands, Wancheng Group and Mingming Hen Mang, filing for IPOs within a short span of time [1] - Both companies have shown significant revenue growth, with Wancheng Group projecting revenues of 5.49 billion, 9.29 billion, and 32.33 billion CNY from 2022 to 2024, while Mingming Hen Mang expects revenues of 4.29 billion, 10.30 billion, and 39.34 billion CNY in the same period [1] - The rapid expansion of these brands is marked by a high number of franchise stores, with Wancheng Group aiming for 15,365 stores and Mingming Hen Mang claiming over 20,000 stores by mid-2025 [1] Expansion Strategies - Wancheng Group and Mingming Hen Mang have adopted aggressive expansion strategies, with Wancheng adding nearly 10,000 stores in just one year, averaging 26 new stores per day [3][4] - The companies rely heavily on franchise models, with Wancheng stating that 99.4% of its stores are franchises, indicating a high dependency on franchisee performance for revenue [4] Financial Performance - Both companies exhibit low profit margins compared to other sectors, with Mingming Hen Mang's gross margins ranging from 7.45% to 7.62% from 2022 to 2024, while Wancheng's gross margin is projected to be around 10.9% in 2024 [5] - The average payback period for franchisees has extended to about 29 months, indicating increasing challenges in achieving profitability [7] Market Challenges - The snack retail market is becoming saturated, leading to increased competition and a decline in profitability for franchisees, with many reporting losses and closures [9][10] - Franchisees are facing difficulties in maintaining sales, with many unable to achieve the necessary monthly revenue to break even, leading to a rise in store closures [8][9] Industry Trends - The industry is experiencing a shift as brands explore new growth avenues, such as diversifying product offerings to include trendy items like blind boxes and collectibles [11] - There are indications that brands like Wancheng Group are considering transforming into comprehensive supermarket formats to adapt to changing market dynamics [11][12]

Core Insights - Wancheng Group, originally a mushroom business, has transformed into a snack retail giant with over 15,000 stores, achieving a revenue growth of over 100 times in three years, but faces challenges with a low net profit margin of approximately 2% and significant profit distribution to minority shareholders [1][2][3] - The company is undergoing a leadership transition following the detention and resignation of founder Wang Jiankun, with his sister Wang Liqing taking over as chairman and his son Wang Zenning becoming the general manager, establishing a family management structure [1][9] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Wancheng Group reported a revenue of 36.562 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 855 million yuan, up 917.04% [1] - Despite high revenue, the net profit margin remains low at 2.34%, with a net profit margin of only 4.35% [2] - The company’s revenue surged from approximately 359 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2022 to 36.562 billion yuan in the same period of 2025, indicating a significant growth trajectory [3] Business Strategy and Challenges - Wancheng Group's rapid expansion has led to a high cost structure, with operating costs rising in line with revenue growth, indicating a lack of economies of scale [4] - The company employs a low-price strategy to capture market share, resulting in a diluted profit margin and increased competition among stores [4][14] - The high asset-liability ratio of 66.35% as of the third quarter of 2025 raises concerns about financial stability, with a significant portion of liabilities being short-term [5] Governance and Management Issues - The governance structure is heavily influenced by family members, with four out of eight board members being from the Wang family, raising concerns about the independence of the board [9][12] - The recent leadership changes and the family-centric governance model may pose challenges for the company's IPO plans, as market confidence has been shaken by the founder's legal issues [11][12] - The profit distribution structure has led to a significant portion of profits being allocated to minority shareholders, particularly benefiting Wang Zenning, which could create distrust among other shareholders [6][7] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Wancheng Group's market position is threatened by increasing competition in the snack retail sector, with other brands like Mingming Hen Mang also pursuing IPOs and showing stronger financial performance [12] - The company faces risks from a saturated market where multiple brands compete for the same customer base, leading to potential store closures and reduced growth rates [12][14] - Quality control issues have emerged, with numerous consumer complaints regarding product safety and service, which could impact brand reputation and customer loyalty [14][15]

Core Insights - Wancheng Group, originally a mushroom business, has transformed into a snack retail giant with over 15,000 stores, achieving over 100 times revenue growth in three years, but faces challenges with a low net profit margin of approximately 2% and significant profit distribution to minority shareholders [1][2][4] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Wancheng Group reported revenue of 36.562 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 855 million yuan, up 917.04% [2] - Despite high revenue, the net profit margin remains low at 2.34%, with a net profit margin of only 4.35% [2] - The company experienced a loss of 82.93 million yuan in 2023, with a net profit margin of -0.89%, and a slight recovery in 2024 with a profit of 294 million yuan, resulting in a net profit margin of 0.91% [2][4] Business Model and Strategy - Wancheng Group's rapid growth is attributed to its aggressive expansion strategy, including the acquisition and integration of regional snack brands under the "Haoxianglai" brand [4] - The company's gross profit margin for its snack business was 11.69% in the first three quarters of 2025, which is still considered low compared to traditional snack companies [4] - High operational costs, including sales and management expenses, have eroded profitability, with total operating costs reaching 32.289 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 74.87% increase [6] Governance and Management Changes - Following the detention of founder Wang Jiankun, a power transition occurred with his sister Wang Liqing becoming chairperson and his son Wang Zenning as general manager, establishing a family management structure [1][10] - The governance structure raises concerns as family members hold a majority of board seats, potentially limiting independent oversight [11][14] Market Position and Competition - Wancheng Group's market strategy has led to a high asset-liability ratio of 66.35% as of the third quarter of 2025, with significant short-term liabilities [7] - The company is planning an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to raise funds for further expansion, but faces scrutiny over its governance and financial health [12][13] Challenges and Risks - The company has faced operational challenges, including a significant number of store closures and a drastic reduction in new store openings, indicating potential issues with its expansion strategy [16] - Complaints regarding product quality and customer service have surfaced, highlighting risks associated with its low-cost business model [16][17]