证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2025 11 24 年 月 日 万辰集团（300972.SZ） 复盘来时路，展望启新章 复盘发展历程：食用菌龙头，转型走出量贩高成长之路。万辰自 2011 年 成立后深耕食用菌领域，2020 年即成为农业产业化国家重点龙头企业， 2024 年食用菌实现 5.4 亿元营收。2022 年切入量贩零食赛道，前期以收 购模式快速形成门店布局网络，同步进行物流仓储等基础体系建设，2023 年后集中资源自行扩店，至 2025 年 6 月末达成 15365 家门店，并不断探 索多品类新店型，2025 年前三季度量贩营收 361.6 亿元，同比+78.8%， 占比提升至 98.9%，同时规模效应牵引 25Q3 量贩单季度净利率提升至 5.3%，同比大幅提升 2.6pct。 复盘股权结构：子公司结构落成，扩店与激励共同推进。万辰实控人王泽 宁先生持股 34.4%，主导量贩零食业务的收购及拓展，万辰的并购之路沿 着" 设立控股子公司-向子公司提供财务支持-推动股权激励-收回少数股东 权益"的路径演进。2022-2023 年公司陆续收购零食工坊、陆小馋，与好 想来、来优品 ...

Core Insights - The company "Lai You Pin" has surpassed 1,300 stores and has been recognized as the leading snack chain brand in Anhui Province by the international consulting firm CIC [1][4] - To celebrate its store expansion, Lai You Pin launched a "Million Consumption Subsidy" campaign to stimulate consumer spending from November 15 to 30 [3] - The parent company, Wancheng Group, is one of the largest and fastest-growing enterprises in China's snack retail industry, with plans to have over 15,000 stores across 29 provinces by June 30, 2025 [4][6] Company Development - Lai You Pin started in 2015 as a small 12-square-meter store in Huainan and has grown to become a regional leader with 1,300 stores [6] - The brand has evolved from a vertical snack store to a comprehensive discount supermarket, enhancing its market potential while maintaining its scale advantage [7] - The company adheres to a business philosophy of "quality, low price, and simplicity," focusing on high-quality products and efficient supply chains [7] Market Strategy - In 2024, Lai You Pin introduced the "Penny-Saving Supermarket" concept, aiming to reshape community retail by offering a one-stop shopping experience that combines snacks, trendy toys, and daily necessities [8] - The first "Penny-Saving Supermarket" opened on January 10, 2025, featuring over 3,000 SKUs across various categories, and has shown significant sales and efficiency improvements [10] - The company is focused on building a chain ecosystem and enhancing operational efficiency to improve the overall consumer experience [10] Social Responsibility - Lai You Pin has a strong commitment to social responsibility, donating materials and funds for disaster relief and local educational initiatives [11] - The company has created nearly a thousand jobs in Anhui, indirectly supporting over ten thousand employment opportunities, contributing to local economic vitality [11] Consumer Trends - The company recognizes a shift towards more rational consumer behavior, emphasizing the importance of quality-price ratio in its offerings [13] - Lai You Pin aims to enhance operational efficiency and consumer experience while providing high-quality products to meet evolving consumer demands [13]

Core Insights - Wancheng Group is the only listed company in the snack wholesale sector in A-shares, with its stock price rising from under 40 yuan at the beginning of 2024 to nearly 175 yuan, marking a tenfold increase from historical lows [1] - Mingming Hen Mang has released an updated IPO prospectus, providing data up to June 30, 2025, and is recognized as the largest chain retailer of leisure food and beverages in China by GMV [3] Financial Performance - Mingming Hen Mang's revenue surged from 4.286 billion yuan in 2022 to 39.344 billion yuan in 2024, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 203% [3] - For the first half of 2025, the company reported retail sales of 41.1 billion yuan and revenue of 28.124 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.034 billion yuan [3] - The total number of stores increased from 14,394 at the end of 2024 to 16,783 by mid-2025 [3] Market Dynamics - The number of snack wholesale stores in China is projected to grow from approximately 2,500 at the end of 2021 to 45,000 by 2025, indicating significant market potential for Mingming Hen Mang [3] - The merger between Mingming Hen Mang and Zhao Yiming Snacks in November 2023 created a new entity with 6,500 stores, positioning it as a leading player in the snack market [9][10] Competitive Landscape - The competition in the snack wholesale market is intensifying, with Wancheng Group also expanding aggressively, having merged multiple brands under the "Haoxianglai" name [9] - The market concentration is increasing, with the top two brands, Mingming Hen Mang and Wancheng Group, engaged in a close contest for market leadership [22] Business Model and Strategy - Mingming Hen Mang's business model relies heavily on a franchise system, with a significant portion of its revenue coming from sales to franchisees rather than direct sales [15][16] - The company has established partnerships with over 2,300 suppliers, enhancing its supply chain efficiency and cost management [12] - The average gross margin for Mingming Hen Mang is around 7.6%, which is lower than other retail formats, indicating challenges in profitability despite high revenue [21] Future Outlook - The company is exploring new business avenues, including the introduction of private label products and diversification into other categories, which may enhance profitability and customer retention [28][30] - The upcoming IPO is seen as a critical step for Mingming Hen Mang to solidify its market position and attract more franchise partners [31]

Core Insights - The core point of the article is the rapid expansion and transformation of Wanchen Group, the parent company of the "Haoxianglai" snack brand, as it seeks to go public in Hong Kong, capitalizing on the booming bulk snack market and facing increasing competition from peers like "Mingminghenmang" [1][3][11]. Company Overview - Wanchen Group originally focused on edible fungi and entered the bulk snack market in 2022, achieving a revenue surge from 66.57 million yuan in 2022 to 31.79 billion yuan in 2024, marking an increase of nearly 478 times [1]. - The company has aggressively expanded its store count, opening 9,776 new stores in 2024 alone, which translates to over 27 new stores daily [3]. - As of the end of 2024, Wanchen Group's revenue reached 32.33 billion yuan, with a net profit of 294 million yuan, demonstrating a significant turnaround from previous losses [3][6]. Market Dynamics - The bulk snack market has become a hotbed for new consumption trends, with a "low price + bulk" model rapidly penetrating both lower-tier cities and first-tier cities [1][2]. - Competitors like "Mingminghenmang" are also expanding, with plans to reach over 20,000 stores by September 2025 and projected revenues of 39.34 billion yuan [1][5]. Business Model - Wanchen Group's business model eliminates intermediaries by sourcing directly from manufacturers, allowing it to offer prices 20% to 30% lower than traditional supermarkets [4]. - The company's gross margin improved from 9.30% in 2023 to 11.41% in Q2 2025, indicating a competitive edge in supply chain management [4][6]. Financial Structure - As of June 2025, Wanchen Group's total assets were 7.46 billion yuan, with total liabilities of 5.14 billion yuan, resulting in a debt-to-asset ratio of 68.9%, indicating a high-leverage operational model [6]. - The company generated 1.298 billion yuan in cash flow from operating activities, supporting its high debt model [6]. Strategic Shifts - In response to market saturation and increased competition, Wanchen Group has slowed its expansion pace, opening only 1,468 new stores in the first half of 2025 [7]. - The company is transitioning towards a "hard discount" retail model, launching new store formats like "Laiyoupin" and "Haoxianglai All Food Selection" to diversify its offerings beyond snacks [8][9]. Brand Development - Wanchen Group is focusing on building its own brands to differentiate itself in a market characterized by product homogeneity and price wars [9]. - The company has introduced two private label series, "Haoxianglai Value" and "Haoxianglai Selection," to enhance product quality and consumer appeal [9]. Future Outlook - The company aims to leverage its IPO to optimize its financial structure and support its transformation into a global hard discount retailer, starting with Southeast Asia [11]. - However, the transition to a broader retail model poses challenges, including the need for supply chain restructuring and the establishment of brand identity in a competitive landscape [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid growth and upcoming IPO of Wanchen Group, the parent company of the snack brand "Haoxianglai," highlighting the competitive landscape of the discount snack retail sector in China and the challenges it faces as it expands aggressively [3][5]. Group 1: Company Overview - Wanchen Group, originally focused on edible fungi, entered the discount snack market in 2022, achieving a revenue surge from 66.57 million yuan in 2022 to 31.79 billion yuan in 2024, marking an increase of nearly 478 times [3]. - The company plans to open 9,776 new stores in 2024, averaging over 27 new stores daily, which has significantly boosted its revenue [7]. - As of mid-2025, Wanchen Group reported a revenue of 22.58 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 106.9%, with a net profit of 472 million yuan, a staggering increase of 50,359% [7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The discount snack sector has become a hotbed for new consumption trends, with major players like Wanchen and Mingming Hen Mang rapidly expanding their market presence [3][5]. - The competition is characterized by a "low price + bulk" model, which has been widely replicated in lower-tier cities, leading to a dual-strong competitive landscape [3][5]. - Wanchen's business model eliminates middlemen by sourcing directly from manufacturers, allowing it to offer prices 20% to 30% lower than traditional supermarkets [8]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Risks - Despite higher profit margins, Wanchen's revenue trails behind Mingming Hen Mang, with 31.79 billion yuan compared to Mingming's 39.34 billion yuan by the end of 2024, despite similar store counts [10]. - Wanchen's aggressive expansion has led to a high leverage model, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 68.9% as of mid-2025, indicating reliance on debt for growth [10][11]. - The company generated 1.298 billion yuan in cash flow from operations, supporting its high debt model, but faces risks if market conditions change [11]. Group 4: Strategic Transformation - In response to increasing competition, Wanchen is transitioning towards a "hard discount" retail model, characterized by minimal SKUs and low prices, aiming to provide high-quality products at lower costs [13][14]. - The company has launched its own private label brands to differentiate its offerings and reduce reliance on generic products, which often suffer from quality issues [15]. - Wanchen's IPO aims to optimize its financial structure and support its transformation into a global hard discount retailer, starting with Southeast Asia [17][18].

Core Insights - The industry is shifting from a focus on store quantity to long-term sustainability and product differentiation [2] - Companies face three main constraints in expansion: talent management, supply chain stability, and financial risk due to high initial investments [1][2] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with brands seeking to establish barriers through quality and differentiation rather than just low prices [1] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The reliance on "store quantity" for scaling is fragile, as excessive store density increases demands on cash flow and supply chain responsiveness [1] - Talent acquisition and management cannot keep pace with rapid store openings, posing a significant challenge for companies [1] - Supply chain issues arise from cross-regional operations, leading to increased logistics costs and supply stability concerns [1] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The competition has shifted from price wars to a focus on supply chain depth and product differentiation [1] - Companies are increasingly investing in brand development to create competitive advantages and enhance pricing power [1] - The introduction of private labels and diversified product offerings is becoming a key strategy for companies to meet diverse consumer demands [1] Group 3: Company Strategies - Mingming Group launched its first proprietary brand series and introduced a dual-brand store model to enhance product offerings [1] - Wancheng Group is diversifying its business model by opening new stores that feature private label products and fresh produce [1] - The emphasis on "high quality-price ratio" is becoming a core competitive advantage in the snack industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - Wanchen Group, once a leader in the edible mushroom industry, has successfully transformed into a major player in the snack retail sector, achieving significant revenue growth but facing multiple challenges including governance issues and profitability concerns [1][2][16]. Group 1: Company Transformation and Growth - After facing a 74.74% decline in net profit in 2021 and entering a loss in 2022, the company pivoted from its original business to acquire snack brands, achieving over 57 times revenue growth from 5.49 billion yuan in 2022 to 32.329 billion yuan in 2024 [1][6]. - The rapid expansion led to over 10,000 stores within two years, positioning Wanchen Group as the "first stock in snack retail" [1]. Group 2: Governance Issues - The family-controlled governance structure, while initially effective, has led to a lack of checks and balances, culminating in the chairman Wang Jiankun's investigation for alleged violations, which severely impacted market confidence [3][5]. - The board composition reflects a significant family influence, with 52.26% of shares held by family members, raising concerns about decision-making and internal conflicts [3][5]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Challenges - Despite impressive revenue growth, the company has struggled with profitability, reporting a net loss of 82.93 million yuan in 2023 and a net profit of only 867 million yuan in 2024, with a net profit margin of just 2.68% [6][9]. - High operational costs, including a 229.8% increase in sales expenses due to rapid store expansion, have further strained profitability, with total expenses significantly outpacing revenue growth [9][11]. Group 4: Market Competition and Strategic Shifts - The snack retail industry has shifted from a "blue ocean" to a "red ocean," intensifying competition and necessitating strategic pivots, such as the launch of a new discount supermarket format [12][13]. - Wanchen Group faces challenges in supply chain management and franchisee engagement, which are critical for the success of its new business model [13][15]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The company must address deep-rooted governance and profitability issues to avoid falling behind in a rapidly evolving market, as consumer expectations shift towards quality and efficiency [16][17]. - Wanchen Group's ability to navigate these challenges will not only determine its survival but also provide valuable lessons for other rapidly expanding private enterprises [17].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 184.01 CNY, indicating approximately 20% upside potential from the current price of 150.11 CNY [7]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the snack retail sector, with significant growth potential in the discount store format, which is becoming a new trend in the market [1][5]. - The snack retail market in China is projected to grow from 211 billion CNY in 2019 to over 1000 billion CNY by 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 40% from 2019 to 2023 and an expected CAGR of 18% from 2023 to 2027 [1][35]. - The company has rapidly expanded its store count to over 15,000, establishing a strong competitive position alongside its main rival [1][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Rapid Growth in Snack Retail Business - The company, founded in 2011, initially focused on edible fungi and has since diversified into the snack retail sector, achieving significant revenue growth [2][15]. - In 2024, the snack retail business is expected to generate revenue of 31.79 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 262.94% [15][26]. - The company has integrated five major snack brands and is actively developing its private label products to enhance profitability [4][5]. 2. Market Trends and Opportunities - The snack retail channel is still in a growth phase, with significant market expansion opportunities remaining [35][36]. - The company is transitioning towards a full-category discount store model, launching "Lai You Pin" and "Hao Xiang Lai" stores to diversify its product offerings beyond snacks [5][49]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with major players like Lele and Aoleqi also entering the discount store space, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards value-oriented shopping [44][45]. 3. Financial Performance and Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 54.15 billion CNY in 2025, with a net profit of 773.12 million CNY, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [6][4]. - The EBITDA is expected to reach 2.74 billion CNY in 2025, with a significant improvement in profit margins due to economies of scale and cost management [6][4]. - The report highlights a decrease in expense ratios, with the net profit margin improving from -1.57% in 2023 to 3.59% in Q1 2025 [29][28].

Group 1 - Wancheng Group plans to acquire 49% equity in Nanjing Wanyou Commodity Management Co., Ltd. for 1.379 billion yuan, increasing its total stake to 75.01% [1][2] - This acquisition marks the first major action taken by Wang Zeneng since he assumed control of the company [2][3] - The acquisition is part of a strategy to consolidate resources and respond to challenges posed by hard discount supermarkets in the snack industry [1][4] Group 2 - Wancheng Group's revenue surged by 1592% in 2023, reaching 9.3 billion yuan, and further increased by 247.86% in 2024 to 32.3 billion yuan [5] - Despite the revenue growth, the company's net profit was negative in 2023 and only 294 million yuan in 2024, indicating a low net profit margin of 0.9% [5][6] - Nanjing Wanyou reported a revenue of 7.712 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 246 million yuan, showing a net profit margin of 3.2% [6] Group 3 - The rise of hard discount supermarkets poses a competitive threat to the bulk snack industry, as they offer similar low-price, high-value propositions [7][8] - Wancheng Group's store count in the bulk snack sector grew significantly, reaching over 15,000 stores by March 2025, although the pace of new openings has slowed [7][8] - The industry is entering a phase of "refined operations," focusing on supply chain efficiency and the development of private labels as key competitive factors [8]

Core Viewpoint - Wancheng Group is acquiring a 49% stake in Nanjing Wanyou Commodity Management Co., aiming to consolidate its holdings and enhance management efficiency under the leadership of Wang Zeneng, marking a significant strategic move in response to industry challenges [2][3][4]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Wancheng Group plans to purchase a 49% stake in Wanyou Company for 1.379 billion yuan, increasing its total ownership to 75.01% post-transaction [2][4]. - The acquisition is part of a broader strategy to integrate resources and improve brand management within the company, which has been fragmented due to multiple acquisitions in the snack industry [2][6]. - The deal involves key stakeholders from Wanyou Company, who will reinvest a significant portion of the transaction proceeds back into Wancheng Group, aligning their interests with the company [4][6]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Wancheng Group's revenue surged by 1592% in 2023, reaching 9.3 billion yuan, and further increased by 247.86% to 32.3 billion yuan in 2024, although net profits remain low at 29.4 million yuan for 2024 [6][8]. - Wanyou Company has shown strong financial performance, with 2024 revenues of 7.712 billion yuan, a 147.3% increase, and a net profit of 246 million yuan, indicating a healthy growth trajectory [6][7]. Group 3: Industry Context - The hard discount supermarket model is emerging as a significant competitor to the bulk snack industry, with several companies, including Wancheng Group, expanding into this space [8][9]. - The rapid growth of Wancheng Group's snack store count, from 4,726 in 2023 to over 15,000 by March 2025, reflects the aggressive expansion strategy, although the pace is expected to slow as the market matures [8][9]. - The industry is transitioning towards "refined operations," focusing on supply chain efficiency and proprietary brand development as key competitive factors [9].